World Cup 2018: England 'have 4% chance of winning in Russia'

2018 Fifa World Cup on the BBC
Host: Russia Dates: 14 June - 15 July
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England have less chance of winning the Fifa World Cup than Peru, according to sports data company Gracenote.

The Peruvians who are ranked 11th in the world - two places ahead of England - have been given a 5% chance of lifting the trophy in Moscow on 15 July, while Gareth Southgate's side have a 4% chance, the same as Belgium and Portugal.

Five-time champions Brazil are favourites with a 21% chance of winning the tournament, ahead of Spain, Germany and Argentina.

So how far will England get?

England face Tunisia, Panama and Belgium in Group G and they have a 71% chance of reaching the knock-out rounds.

That calculation is based on one million simulations of the World Cup run by Gracenote, with points awarded for each match based on the probability of a win/draw/defeat based on the ranking of each side.

If they qualify from Group G, England will face either Poland, Senegal, Colombia or Japan from Group H in the last 16 and are predicted to have a 41% chance of progressing.

But their odds tumble in the quarter-finals - where they could face the likes of Germany or Brazil - with an 18% chance of reaching the semis and 9% chance of making the final.

England's chances of reaching the knockout stage

What about the rest?

There is a 47% chance of a first-time winner, so someone other than Argentina, Brazil, France, Germany, Spain, England or Uruguay
Latin American and European teams will dominate, with 10 of the last 16 being from Europe, five from South America and one from Central America
African side Senegal, in Group H, have a 45% chance of breaking the mould and qualifying for the last 16
Peru, who are playing at the World Cup for the first time since 1982, are tipped to be this tournament's surprise packages with a 22% chance to be in the final four
Colombia have a 21% chance of reaching the semis

Chances of reaching the knockout stages
Group A: Uruguay 77%, Russia 60%, Egypt 36%, Saudi Arabia 27%
Group B: Spain 76%, Portugal 58%, Iran 35%, Morocco 30%
Group C: France 69%, Peru 68%, Denmark 35%, Australia 27%
Group D: Argentina 82%, Croatia 57%, Iceland 35%, Nigeria 27%
Group E: Brazil 90%, Switzerland 51%, Serbia 31%, Costa Rica 28%
Group F: Germany 79%, Mexico 60%, Sweden 34%, South Korea 27%
Group G: England 71%, Belgium 71%, Tunisia 32%, Panama 26%
Group H: Colombia 77%, Poland 50%, Senegal 45%, Japan 29%

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1056 comments

Comment posted by D1710692730550, at 09:25 7 Jun 2018
so you're telling me there's a chance?!
Comment posted by Barley, at 09:48 7 Jun 2018
I calculate there is a 60% chance of 40% of these predictions being 37% wrong and as such this gives Poland a 22% chance of beating Latvia in the Eurovision Song Contest unless of course it is raining in which case there is a 100% chance all such nonsense as this will be taken seriously by 50% of Greeks and only 17% of Botswanans. Conclusion. Germany will win the World Cup on penalties.
Comment posted by tonep, at 09:35 7 Jun 2018
Why shouldn't Peru have more chance to win it than England, they're ranked higher than us for gods sake. The headline really should be "Dumb simulator reckons Germany only have 8% chance of winning the WC".
Comment posted by AndyB_MOT, at 09:37 7 Jun 2018
@48 "Are any neutrals excited about watching Peru vs Australia, Japan v Poland or England v Panama?"

Yes. It's the World Cup. I can't wait.
Comment posted by tablatom, at 10:10 7 Jun 2018
As an All black fan and Kiwi living here in the UK since 1991, I can't understand why England under achieves and the country is so negative.
U17 WORLD CHAMPIONS ENGLAND, U19 WORLD CHAMPIONS ENGLAND!!!!!!
What happens????????? This really is insane. The Premiership has something to do with it. It must be.
Comment posted by Wildwood, at 09:28 7 Jun 2018
Chances of Gracenote's predictions being wrong - 99%
Comment posted by tunbridge_gammon, at 09:24 7 Jun 2018
better than no chance. You gotta be in it to win it!
Comment posted by dogeared, at 09:24 7 Jun 2018
Ah but did the simulator take into account our secret weapon - Harry Kane's shoulder.
Comment posted by Pabs, at 09:24 7 Jun 2018
That's 3% better than last time!
Comment posted by offstdaf, at 09:29 7 Jun 2018
Far better than Leicester's chances of winning the Premier League a couple of season's ago.
Comment posted by The Uncomfortable Truth, at 10:41 7 Jun 2018
Some people do not understand betting. I will clarify. If England are 16-1 to win the world cup and you bet £10, you lose a tenner. If England are 25-1 and you bet £10, you lose a tenner. Easy.
Comment posted by Could I just say, at 09:34 7 Jun 2018
To some extent this is just realism. With 32 teams left in the competition if they were equally good they would have a chance of winning of marginally over 3%. England's chances are seen as better than average, I think Brazil's are massively overstated. I think we are better than average but even at twice as good as the average that's only a 6% chance. That's how massive winning would be.
Comment posted by duncancobbett, at 09:39 7 Jun 2018
They have failed to take into account that Gareth Southgate's boys will be giving it "110%" ...
Comment posted by User0325579446, at 09:45 7 Jun 2018
Well that's about as useful as a sieve for a soup bowl

Brazil 21% more than 2.5x more likely than Germany 8% is utter nonsense as is Eng > Belgium and Port

My guess "Gracenote" is actually a schoolboy prankster in Rio de Janeiro
Comment posted by Tony, at 09:31 7 Jun 2018
4% chance may not be much but it's still better odds than Scotland, Wales, Italy and Holland etc have.
Comment posted by Zomersetonian, at 09:29 7 Jun 2018
If we make it to the Quarter-Finals I think that would be classed as a really successful tournament!
Comment posted by Poolster, at 11:17 7 Jun 2018
the only thing with a 4% rating thats given me any joy is beer
Comment posted by David, at 09:24 7 Jun 2018
That much!
Comment posted by pak, at 11:43 7 Jun 2018
Russia will win. All the rest will suddenly be taken ill
Comment posted by Jake2703, at 11:06 7 Jun 2018
"That calculation is based on one million simulations" - which is only one less than Raheem Sterling carries out per season.