Hostname: page-component-7c8c6479df-94d59 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-03-28T11:27:47.086Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Types and Political Accountability

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 September 2013

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
Affiliation:
Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Randolph M. Siverson
Affiliation:
University of California, Davis

Abstract

We seek to answer the question, What effect does international war participation have on the ability of political leaders to survive in office? We develop a model of political reliability and derive seven related hypotheses from it that anticipate variation in the time a national political leader will survive in office after the onset of a war. Drawing upon a broadly based data set on state involvement in international war between 1816 and 1975, our expectations are tested through censored Weibull regression. Four of the hypotheses are tested, and all are supported by the analysis. We find that those leaders who engage their nation in war subject themselves to a domestic political hazard that threatens the very essence of the office-holding homo politicus, the retention of political power. The hazard is mitigated by longstanding experience for authoritarian elites, an effect that is muted for democratic leaders, while the hazard is militated by defeat and high costs from war for all types of leaders. Additionally, we find that authoritarian leaders are inclined to war longer after they come to power than democratic leaders. Further, democratic leaders select wars with a lower risk of defeat than do their authoritarian counterparts.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1995

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Allison, Graham. 1971. The Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. Boston: Little, Brown.Google Scholar
Allison, Paul. 1984. Event History Analysis: Regression for Longitudinal Event Data. Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences Series. Beverly Hills: Sage.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bienen, Henry, and Walle, Nicholas van de. 1991. Of Time and Power. Stanford: Stanford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Black, Duncan. 1958. The Theory of Committees and Elections. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Brody, Richard A. 1992. Assessing the President: The Media, Elite Opinion, and Public Support. Stanford: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Brody, Richard A., and Page, Benjamin. 1975. “The Impact of Events on Presidential Popularity.” In Perspectives on the Presidency, ed. Wildavsky, Aaron. Boston: Little, Brown.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and Lalman, David. 1992. War and Reason. New Haven: Yale University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Newman, David, and Rabushka, Alvin. 1985. Forecasting Political Events. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and Organski, A. F. K.. N.d. Principles of International Politics. Forthcoming.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Siverson, Randolph M., and Wolier, Gary. 1992. “War and the Fate of Regimes: A Comparative Analysis.American Political Science Review 86:638–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and Stokman, Frans. 1994. European Community Decision Making. New Haven: Yale University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crystal, David. 1990. The Cambridge Encyclopedia. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1994. “Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes.American Political Science Review 88:577–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fiorina, Morris P. 1981. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Gaubatz, Kurt Taylor. 1991. “Election Cycle and War.The Journal of Conflict Resolution 35:212–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Greene, William H. 1993. Econometric Analysis. 2d ed.New York: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Gurr, Ted Robert. 1990. “Polity II: Political Structures and Regime Change, 1800–1986.” Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research, University of Michigan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hanneman, Robert A., and Steinback, Robin L.. 1990. “Military Involvement and Political Instability: An Event History Analysis, 1940–1980.Journal of Military and Political Sociology 18:123.Google Scholar
Jackman, Robert W. 1993. Power without Force. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kalbfleisch, John D., and Prentice, Ross. 1980. The Statistical Analysis of Failure Time Data. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Kernell, Samuel H. 1978. “Explaining Presidential Popularity.American Political Science Review 72:506–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, Gary, Alt, James, Burns, Nancy, and Laver, Michael. 1990. “A Unified Model of Cabinet Dissolution in Parliamentary Democracies.American Journal of Political Science 34:846–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lake, David A. 1992. “Powerful Pacifists: Democratic States and War.American Political Science Review 86:2437.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lancaster, Tony, and Chesher, Andrew. 1985a. “Residual Analysis for Censored Duration Data.Economics Letters 18:3538.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lancaster, Tony, and Chesher, Andrew. 1985b. “Residuals, Tests, and Plots with a Job Matching Illustration.” Annales de l'Insee 59/60:4770.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Langer, William L. 1972. Encyclopedia of World History. Boston: Hough ton Mifflin.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael, and Eulau, Heinz. 1985. “Economic Conditions and Electoral Outcomes in Trans-national Perspective.” In Economic Conditions and Electoral Outcomes, ed. Eulau, Heinz and Lewis-Beck, Michael. New York: Agathon.Google Scholar
Londregan, John B., and Poole, Keith. 1990. “Poverty, the Coup Trap, and the Seizure of Executive Power.World Politics 27:151–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maoz, Zeev, and Russett, Bruce. 1993. “Normative and Structural Causes of Democratic Peace, 1946–1986.American Political Science Review 87:624–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morgan, T. Clifton, and Bickers, Kenneth. 1992. “Domestic Discontent and the External Use of Force.Journal of Conflict Resolution 36:2552.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morgan, T. Clifton, and Campbell, Sally Howard. 1991. “Domestic Structure, Decisional Constraints, and War.Journal of Conflict Resolution 35:187211.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morrow, James D. 1987. “On the Theoretical Basis of Risk Attitudes.International Studies Quarterly 31:423–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mueller, John. 1973. War, Presidents, and Public Opinion. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Norpoth, Helmut. 1987. “Guns and Butter and Governmental Popularity in Britain.American Political Science Review 81:949–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norpoth, Helmut, Lewis-Beck, Michael, and Lafay, Jean-Dominique. 1991. Economics and Politics: The Calculus of Support. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Organski, A. F. K., and Kugler, Jacek. 1980. The War Ledger. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powell, G. Bingham, and Whitten, Guy D.. 1993. “A Cross-national Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context.American Journal of Political Science 37:391414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Putnam, Robert. 1988. “Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-level Games.International Organization 42:427–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Richards, Diana, Clifton Morgan, T., Wilson, Rick K., Schwebach, Valerie, and Young, Garry D.. 1993. “Good Times, Bad Times, and the Diversionary Use of Force.Journal of Conflict Resolution 37:504–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rose, Richard, and Mackie, T. T.. 1983. “Incumbency in Government: Asset or Liability?” In Western European Party Systems, ed. Daalder, Hans and Mair, Peter. Beverly Hills: Sage.Google Scholar
Rosenau, James N., ed. 1969. Linkage Politics. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Sanders, David, Ward, Hugh, and Marsh, David. 1991. “Macroeconomics, the Falklands War, and the Popularity of the Thatcher Government: A Contrary View.” In Economics and Politics, ed. Norpoth, Helmut, Lewis-Beck, Michael, and Lafay, Jean-Dominique. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Small, Melvin, and Singer, J. David. 1982. Resort to Arms. Beverly Hills: Sage.Google Scholar
Spuler, Bertold, Allen, C. G., and Saunders, Neil. 1977. Rulers and Governments of the World, vol. 3. London: Bowker.Google Scholar
Tsebelis, George. 1990. Nested Games. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Waltz, Kenneth. 1979. Theory of International Politics. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
Warwick, Paul. 1992a. “Ideological Diversity and Government Survival in Western European Parliamentary Democracies.Comparative Political Studies 25:332–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Warwick, Paul. 1992b. “Rising Hazards: An Underlying Dynamic of Parliamentary Government.American Journal of Political Science 36:857–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Warwick, Paul. 1993. “Economic Trends and Government Survival in Western European Parliamentary Democracies.American Political Science Review 86:875–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar