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Friday, 30 November, 2001, 12:54 GMT
The running of Palestine
By BBC News Online's Martin Asser
Yasser Arafat's Palestinian National Authority (PA) is a unique creature, born of what is widely seen as a now-defunct peace process and transformed by a bloody conflict with the state that is meant to be its peace partner. During its short existence, the body has largely failed to live up to the widespread optimism and high expectations which greeted its formation in the mid-1990s.
In 1997, a much-quoted Palestinian parliamentary committee report found that nearly 40% of the PA's $800m annual budget, much of it coming from foreign aid donations, had been squandered through corruption and mismanagement. The situation since the outbreak of the Palestinian intifada in September 2000 has brought some weakening of centralised power, but Yasser Arafat remains the final authority on all important matters and the pivotal figure in the PA. Mr Arafat's legitimacy stems from decades at the helm of the Palestinian liberation struggle and - perhaps to a lesser extent - elections in the West Bank and Gaza in January 1996 when he won nearly 90% of the vote.
Military power During the hey-day of the peace process, Mr Arafat ruled with the help of an impressive array of security and intelligence agencies consisting of about 40,000 personnel. These include the powerful Preventive Security intelligence agency, Military Intelligence, National Security (for routine security operations), Special Security (monitoring opposition groups), and the elite Force-17 presidential guard. There is also the General Intelligence organisation (countering internal subversion), the military, civilian and maritime police, the last of which has branches Gaza and the (landlocked) West Bank. Some of these forces have now turned the light weapons they were given under the Israeli-Palestinian peace accords against Israeli targets, and have lost dozens of men in Israeli Army attacks.
Beyond the security and intelligence apparatus there stand the shadowy ranks of the Tanzim (organisation), a militia of up to 40,000 Arafat loyalists which acts as a counterweight to the militant Islamic groups, Hamas and Islamic Jihad. However, Tanzim-Islamist joint operations against Israel have been a feature of life since September 2000. Political scene Before the intifada, many Arafat critics charged that the PA - with its well-developed security arm and stunted civil institutions - was little more that a way of repressing the Palestinian population under Israeli occupation. That impression was compounded by the apparent powerlessness of the judiciary and legislature, branches of government that were elected at the same time as Mr Arafat but that have proved incapable of providing the necessary checks and balances in government.
Most of the signatories were arrested without charge, and their initiative was ineffective. But the incident - and the apparent popularity of the sentiment on the streets - served to show how thin Arafat's support base was. Succession issues The death of Faisal Husseini in May 2001 fuelled speculation about possible successors to Mr Arafat, who in his long career has been careful not to anoint a successor.
Most analysts speculate that, if Mr Arafat suddenly left the scene, his likely successor would be either the second in command in the PLO, Mahmoud Abbas, or the Legislative Council speaker Ahmed Qurei. But neither is a young man and neither would be a particularly popular choice.
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