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Tuesday, 16 January, 2001, 21:49 GMT
Analysis: Saddam and the future
By Middle East analyst Roger Hardy
When asked about their vision of a future Iraq, policy-makers in Washington and London depict a free and democratic country, at peace with itself and its neighbours, and no longer at war with the West. An Iraq, in short, without Saddam Hussein.
They are convinced the Middle East will never be safe as long as he is in power. They cannot envisage normalising relations with a regime they regard as both dictatorial and dangerous. But the Iraqi leader has proved to be one of the great survivors of Middle East politics. Survival skills He has survived defeat in war, countless assassination attempts - and a decade of harsh United Nations sanctions. As a result, say critics of Western policy, talk of a post-Saddam Iraq is mere wishful thinking. Saddam has survived for three main reasons:
Saddam's health But there is one threat which even Saddam is unable to laugh off - his own mortality. Persistent reports that he has cancer, or some other serious illness, are routinely denied in Baghdad.
To experienced Saddam-watchers he is looking pale and exhausted. They are convinced his public appearances are stage-managed to hide his true condition. For years, the Iraqi leader appeared to be grooming his elder son, Uday, to succeed him. But Uday has a history of violent and unpredictable behaviour. Succession After he was seriously injured in an assassination attempt in 1996, Saddam began to sideline him in favour of his younger brother Qusay. But a smooth succession is far from certain. Qusay would probably have to face down challenges from his ambitious brother, from other members of Saddam's extended clan or from rivals in the army, the intelligence agencies or the Baath Party. The nightmare for Iraq's neighbours is the country's descent into bloodshed and anarchy. Some fear the break-up of the state into its three basic components: a Kurdish north and a Shi'ite south, with a Sunni centre sandwiched in between. One of the dilemmas of the West and its allies in the region is to decide which they fear most - an Iraq ruled by Saddam, or an Iraq without him.
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