‘Crazy’ Enough to Take On Syria?

UN diplomat Martti Ahtisaari (left), Archbishop Desmond Tutu and Mary Robinson, former president of Ireland, attend a press conference in Juba, South Sudan on July 6. Giulio Petrocco/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesUN diplomat Martti Ahtisaari (left), Archbishop Desmond Tutu and Mary Robinson, former president of Ireland, attend a press conference in Juba, South Sudan on July 6.

LONDON — Who is next in line for “mission impossible” after Kofi Annan quit his role as international peace envoy to Syria in the face of intractable divisions among world powers over how to end the conflict?

One name being floated on Friday was Martti Ahtisaari, a former president of Finland and a renowned mediator who was awarded the 2008 Nobel Peace Prize in recognition of three decades of work in resolving international conflicts.

Kirsi Hyytiäinen, a Finnish blogger, was among a number of Finns who suggested Mr. Ahtisaari as a successor to Mr. Annan when the former United Nations secretary general formally ends his peace mission at the end of the month.

Iiro Rantala, a fellow Finn, suggested he might already be on the short list.

Mr. Ahtisaari was originally shortlisted for the joint U.N.-Arab League assignment along with Mr. Annan. But Russia reportedly vetoed his appointment in February because of its opposition to his support for the independence of Kosovo from Serbia, an issue close to Russia’s heart.

Russia might again put him out of the running to replace Mr. Annan.

But there are maybe a dozen international statesmen and women with the clout to take on the Syria portfolio and Mr. Ahtisaari is clearly one of them after peace missions in Kosovo, Namibia, Indonesia and beyond.

Like Mr. Annan, he is a member of The Elders, a group that takes on missions in support of peace and human rights and includes former world leaders like Jimmy Carter, the former U.S. president, and South Africa’s Desmond Tutu.

But could Mr. Ahtisaari, or any other of the limited selection of mediators available to the international community, succeed where Mr. Annan failed?

In an article that foresaw the failure of the Annan mission, Richard Gowan of New York University’s Center on International Cooperation, wrote last month:

The developments in Damascus and New York now make it clear that the outcome of the Syrian civil war will be decided on the battlefield rather than at the Security Council.

That grim forecast followed the latest Russian and Chinese vetoes against a sanctions resolution at the U.N. and an escalation of fighting after three senior members of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime were killed.

Mr. Gowan was not alone in blaming the deadlock on the failure of the U.N. Security Council in a crisis that could have been designed to show that the U.N. was “absolutely irrelevant.”

“Russia and China treated Annan’s interventions as an alibi for avoiding serious actions against Damascus,” Mr. Gowan wrote. “European and U.S. officials… grew impatient when they realized that he would not be able to persuade Assad to stand down.”

Mr. Annan himself blamed the impasse on “finger-pointing and name-calling” among members of the Security Council. That has continued unabated.

The White House blamed the collapse of Mr. Annan’s six-point peace plan on Russian and Chinese failure to support “meaningful resolutions” against the Assad regime, while Alexei Pushkov, head of the foreign affairs committee in the Russian Parliament, blamed the West for encouraging the Syrian opposition.

Lebanon’s Daily Star, suggesting Syria was in “free fall” as Mr. Annan quit, wrote, “Diplomatic efforts looked increasingly irrelevant as fighting has intensified in Aleppo, Damascus and elsewhere.”

Mr. Annan, in what constituted a word of caution to any would-be successor, told a press conference on Thursday:

Without serious, purposeful and united international pressure, including from the powers of the region, it is impossible for me, or anyone, to compel the Syrian government in the first place, and also the opposition, to take the steps necessary to begin a political process.

Addressing himself to the choice of a successor, Mr. Annan said: “Let me say that the world is full of crazy people like me, so don’t be surprised if someone else decides to take it on.”