25
August 2016
PDF version [190KB]
Stephen Barber
Statistics
and Mapping Section
Executive
summary
- The periodic redrawing of electoral boundaries is required by law
to maintain electoral divisions of roughly equal enrolment size within a state
or territory. Redrawing of boundaries is known as a redistribution.
- There are three provisions which may trigger a
redistribution—representation entitlement, malapportioned divisions, or
expiration of seven years since previous redistribution.
- During the expected life of the 45th Parliament there could be a redistribution
of South Australia brought about by the representation entitlement trigger
which determines the number of members of the House of Representatives a state
or territory is entitled to in relation to its population. If this happens then
South Australia will lose an electoral division.
- A redistribution of the Northern Territory, because of the expiration
of seven years provision, was started during the last Parliament and is
expected to be completed in early 2017. The number of divisions will remain
unchanged at two.
- A redistribution of Tasmania, also because of the seven years
provision, will occur early in the life of this Parliament. This redistribution
had been deferred because it was scheduled to fall within 12 months of the
deemed expiration of the previous House of Representatives. There will be no
change to Tasmania’s entitlement to five divisions.
- Redistributions of Queensland and Victoria will also be held
because of the expiration of seven years provision. Neither state will have a
change to its entitlement of divisions.
-
If South Australia does lose a division then the next election may
be held for a Parliament reduced to 149 divisions.
Contents
Executive summary
Introduction
Redistribution provisions
Representation entitlement
Table 1: Estimated representation
entitlements
Expiration of seven years
Table 2: Electoral redistribution
dates due to expiration of seven years
Deferral of redistribution
Conclusion
Table 3: Predicted timetable of
upcoming electoral redistributions
Introduction
Each state and territory is divided into
electoral divisions (or seats) for the House of Representatives. The number of
divisions is determined by population and the Australian Constitution. The
boundaries of these divisions have to be redrawn or redistributed from time to
time to allow for population movements; thus ensuring equal representation
between divisions within each state and territory.[1]
There are expected to be five redistributions occurring
prior to the deemed expiration of this, the 45th, Parliament.[2]
This paper outlines the reasons why.
Redistribution provisions
Section 59 of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918
(the Act) sets out the three provisions that trigger electoral redistributions.[3]
Briefly, these are:
- representation entitlement—a redistribution must be held if the
number of members of the House of Representatives to which a state or territory
is entitled changes
- malapportioned divisions—a redistribution must be held if the
number of electors in more than one third of the divisions in a state or a
division in a territory deviates from the average enrolment in that state or
territory by over ten per cent for a period of more than two months—this has
not been a trigger for a redistribution since the current provisions were
introduced in 1984 and is extremely unlikely to be a trigger during this
Parliament, and
- expiration of seven years—if neither of the above provisions
triggers a redistribution in a state or territory within seven years of the
previous redistribution then a redistribution must be held in that state or
territory.
Representation
entitlement
Under section 46 of the Act, the Electoral Commissioner
ascertains the populations of the states and territories from the Australian
Statistician the day after the anniversary of the first meeting of a newly
elected House of Representatives, provided that the ‘House of Representatives
has continued for a period of 12 months’.[4]
Section 48 of the Act specifies the manner in which representation
entitlements are calculated from these population numbers.[5]
The first meeting of the current House of Representatives is
scheduled to take place on 30 August 2016, so on 31 August 2017
the Electoral Commissioner will obtain the latest population numbers published
by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).[6]
According to the latest ABS publication of demographic statistics, the
population numbers that will be available at 31 August 2017 will
relate to the end of December 2016.[7]
In order to estimate what these population numbers might be,
the Parliamentary Library has taken the most current population numbers (December 2015)
and projected these to December 2016 assuming that the population growth
over the previous 12 months (December 2014 to December 2015)
continues. The resultant population projections and estimated representation
entitlements of the states and territories are shown in Table 1.
These estimates show that the current representation
entitlements could change in South Australia, which is estimated to lose an
electoral division. If South Australia is reduced to 10 seats it will return to
the number of seats it had at the 1954 election and continue the decline from
its maximum representation of 13 seats (1984, 1987 and 1990 elections).
Tasmania will retain its five seats, even though it would be
entitled to only three under the representation entitlement formula, because section 24 of the Constitution guarantees that
each of the original states is entitled to at least five members.
Since no other states or territories are estimated to
increase their entitlement the size of the Parliament will decrease to 149
divisions.[8]
Table 1:
Estimated representation entitlements
| |
Population
projections
Dec
2016 |
Calculated
number
of
members
(a) |
Entitlement |
Change
(b) |
| New South Wales |
7 778 347 |
47.412 |
47 |
0 |
| Victoria |
6 108 264 |
37.232 |
37 |
0 |
| Queensland |
4 869 236 |
29.680 |
30 |
0 |
| South Australia |
1 714 039 |
10.448 |
10 |
-1 |
| Western Australia |
2 635 252 |
16.063 |
16 |
0 |
| Tasmania (c) |
519 523 |
3.167 |
5 |
0 |
| Six states |
23 624 661 |
|
145 |
-1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Northern Territory |
244 874 |
1.493 |
|
|
| Cocos (Keeling) Islands |
601 |
0.004 |
|
|
| Christmas Island |
2 258 |
0.014 |
|
|
| Total NT (d) |
247 733 |
1.510 |
2 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Australian Capital Territory |
398 356 |
2.428 |
|
|
| Jervis Bay |
415 |
0.003 |
|
|
| Norfolk Island |
1 660 |
0.010 |
|
|
| Total ACT (d) |
398 771 |
2.441 |
2 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Australia |
24 271 165 |
|
149 |
-1 |
Note: For representation entitlement purposes: Jervis
Bay and Norfolk Island are included with the Australian Capital Territory; and the
Northern Territory includes Cocos (Keeling) Island and Christmas Island.
Norfolk Island, Cocos (Keeling) Island or Christmas Island will not be included
if they are determined to be entitled to a member of their own.
(a) Derived by dividing the population of a state or
territory by a population quota, i.e. the population of the six states divided
by twice the number of senators for the six states (144) because s.24 of the
Constitution requires there to be ‘as nearly as practicable’ twice as many
members as senators. The population quota calculated here is 164 060.
(b) Change over current entitlement.
(c) One of the original (six) states at the establishment
of the Commonwealth of Australia. Section 24 of the Constitution entitles each
original state to at least five members.
(d) For the NT
and the ACT, if the remainder of their calculated number of members is 0.5 or
less then s.48 of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 allows a new calculation
to be determined after the addition of a margin of error to their population
estimate. If the resultant remainder of the new calculated number of members is
greater than 0.5 then an additional member is determined for that Territory. In
the Table estimates this is not applicable for the NT, and the ACT entitlement
is unchanged with the addition of the current margin of error, so it is not
shown. However, new margins of error, derived from the 2016 Census, will be available
at the time of the next determination and this could possibly influence the ACT
outcome.
Expiration of seven years
Section 59 of the Act sets out that a redistribution in a
state or territory must commence within 30 days of the expiration of seven years
after the most recent redistribution in that state or territory (however, a
redistribution can be deferred, see the next section). Table 2 sets out the
date of the most recent electoral redistribution held in each state and
territory and the date of the next scheduled redistribution under this
provision.
Redistributions of the Northern Territory, Tasmania,
Queensland and Victoria will occur during this Parliament under this provision.
A redistribution of South Australia is also due under this
provision but the representation entitlement trigger (see previous section) could
override this and, thus the redistribution will occur earlier. However, if the
representation entitlement trigger is not produced then this redistribution
would be deferred until after the next election because it would be scheduled
to commence within 12 months of the deemed expiration of the House of
Representatives.[9]
Table 2: Electoral
redistribution dates due to expiration of seven years
| State/Territory |
Most recent redistribution |
Next scheduled - expiration of 7
years |
| New South Wales |
25 February 2016 |
February / March 2023 |
| Victoria |
24 December 2010 |
December 2017 / January 2018 |
| Queensland |
15 December 2009 |
December 2016 / January 2017 |
| South Australia |
16 December 2011 |
December 2018 / January 2019 |
| Western Australia |
19 January 2016 |
January / February 2023 |
| Tasmania |
16 February 2009 |
September 2016 (a) |
| Northern Territory |
19 September 2008 |
September / October 2015 (b) |
| Australian Capital Territory |
28 January 2016 |
January / February 2023 |
(a) The scheduled redistribution was
deferred until after the 2016 election and will commence within 30 days of the
first sitting of this Parliament.
(b) This redistribution commenced on 15
October 2015 and is expected to be finalised on 7 February 2017.
Deferral of
redistribution
Under subsections 59(4) and 59(9) of the Act, any
redistribution scheduled within 12 months of the expiration of a House of
Representatives is deferred and commenced within 30 days after the first
meeting of the new House of Representatives.
Most recently this provision of the Act caused the
redistribution of Tasmania, due to occur in February/March 2016 (as triggered
by the seven-year rule), to be deferred until after the 2016 election. This
redistribution will now commence within 30 days of the first sitting of the
House of Representatives.
A redistribution of South Australia is scheduled for December
2018 or January 2019. However, since this would mean that the redistribution
would be within 12 months of the expected deemed expiration date of this
Parliament, it will be deferred until after the next election. As discussed in
the previous section, this may not come into effect because it may already have
been redistributed under the representation entitlement trigger.
Under subsections 59(5) and 59(9A) of the Act, any
redistribution due to occur during the first 13 months of the new Parliament
will be deferred until after the representation entitlements determination is
made if the Electoral Commission is of the opinion that the determination will or
may alter the number of members. In this case, Tasmania and Queensland will be
the only affected states. Tasmania’s entitlement of five seats will not change
and Queensland’s entitlement is not expected to change (see Table 1); therefore,
both redistributions will likely not be deferred.
Conclusion
The Parliamentary Library’s population projections suggest
that one redistribution—South Australia—is expected to be triggered by the
representation entitlement determination 12 months after the first sitting of
this Parliament. Based upon these projections, the author expects South Australia
will lose a division.
The redistribution of the Northern Territory, commenced in
the latter part of the last Parliament, will be finalised in early 2017 and the
deferred redistribution of Tasmania will be held immediately after the first
sitting of this Parliament.
A redistribution of Queensland will commence at the end of
this year or early in 2017 and Victoria will be redistributed in late 2017 or early
2018.
At this stage, New South Wales, Western Australia and the
Australian Capital Territory will not be redistributed until early 2023,
although these could occur earlier if their representation entitlements changed.
The House of Representatives could go to the next election
with 149 electoral divisions.
A timetable showing when the next redistribution in each
state and territory is expected to occur is shown in Table 3 below.
Table 3: Predicted timetable of
upcoming electoral redistributions
| Next scheduled |
Parliament |
State/Territory |
Most recent |
| September / October 2015 (a) |
Current (45th) |
Northern Territory |
19 September 2008 |
| September 2016 (b) |
Current (45th) |
Tasmania |
16 February 2009 |
| December 2016 / January 2017 |
Current (45th) |
Queensland |
15 December 2009 |
| September 2017 (c) |
Current (45th) |
South Australia |
16 December 2011 |
| December 2017 / January 2018 |
Current (45th) |
Victoria |
24 December 2010 |
| January / February 2023 |
Future (47th) |
Western Australia |
19 January 2016 |
| January / February 2023 |
Future (47th) |
Australian Capital Territory |
28 January 2016 |
| February / March 2023 |
Future (47th) |
New South Wales |
25 February 2016 |
(a) AEC, Northern Territory (NT) federal redistribution, webpage. This redistribution commenced on 15 October
2015 and is expected to be finalised on 7 February 2017.
(b) The scheduled redistribution was
deferred until after the 2016 election and will commence within 30 days of the
first sitting of this Parliament.
(c) If the Electoral Commissioner
determines that South Australia's entitlement does not change then its next
scheduled redistribution is due to commence in December 2018 / January 2019
(see Table 2). This date occurs within 12 months of the deemed expiration of
this Parliament so the redistribution will be deferred until the next (46th)
Parliament.
[1]. Information
on the redistribution process can be found on the Australian Electoral
Commission website, Redistributions,
accessed 18 August 2016.
[2]. Dates of all previous
redistributions can be found on the Australian Electoral Commission website, Redistribution
dates since 1901, accessed 18 August 2016.
[3]. Commonwealth
Electoral Act 1918, accessed 18 August 2016.
[4]. Ibid.,
section 46.
[5]. An initial
quota is ascertained by dividing the total population of the six states by
twice the number of senators from the six states. A quota for each state and
territory is then determined by dividing the population of the state or
territory by the initial quota. The resultant figure rounded to the nearest
whole number determines the entitlement.
[6]. Norfolk
Island population numbers will also be provided because, due to the Territories
Legislation Amendment Act 2016,
from 1 July 2016 Norfolk Island will be included in the Australian
Capital Territory.
[7]. The December
2016 population figures will be released on 22 June 2017, see dates of
forthcoming issues of population data in Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS),
Australian
Demographic Statistics, December Quarter 2015, cat. no. 3101.0,
ABS, Canberra, 2016, p. 2, accessed 18 August 2016.
[8]. The House of
Representatives has had 150 seats since the 2001 election.
[9]. The expected expiration
of the 45th Parliament is deemed to be 29 August 2019, the end of three years
after the expected first sitting of the House of Representatives on 30 August
2016.
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