How We're Doing: Population shrinking in many VT cities

Vermont has only a few more residents today than it had in 2010, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. And, according to numbers just published by the U.S. Census Bureau, the vast majority of Vermont towns have fewer residents today than they did in 2010.

Let's look at the good news first: Some Vermont towns grew relatively fast, if we define relatively fast as above the national average. But only 16 out of Vermont's 251 towns and cities can make that claim. And most of those towns were in the greater Burlington metro area.

More than 180 towns have lost population in Vermont, an experience that hearkens back to the mid-19th century when many Vermont towns lost a significant share of their population. Indeed, many Vermont towns lost so many people that they did not regain their peak 19th century populations until the 1960s, over a century later.

Declining populations are not just a feature of small, rural Vermont towns. Most cities in Vermont have fewer residents today than they did at the 2010 Census count. That includes Burlington, Winooski, Montpelier, Barre City, St. Albans City, Bennington, Brattleboro, Windsor, White River Junction and St. Johnsbury.

The table shows the total population of a few towns and cities and their growth (or decline) since 2010. The left side shows some Chittenden County towns and a few outside of the county but still within commuting distance of Chittenden County's employment centers.

Burlington and Winooski, which most people consider to be true cities (at least in a Vermont context) were the only Chittenden County jurisdictions that lost population. Every other town in the county, plus nearby Fairfax and Georgia in southern Franklin County, and St. Albans town, have grown. That's not true of St. Albans City or Montpelier or Middlebury, despite their being within commuting distance of Burlington.

The right side columns show that throughout the state, historic cities and downtowns have all, except for Morrisville, experienced declining populations this decade.

The state has several programs to help revitalize downtowns. These include different varieties of tax credits, downtown designations, grants, and more. But almost every one of the historic cities that have received state revitalization funds are still losing population.

It's difficult to have a healthy and thriving downtown when the population of the city supporting that downtown is declining. It's not easy for the state or for localities to turn this around.

As to solutions, a first step would be to acknowledge that a declining population is a problem.

Art Woolf is associate professor of economics at UVM and editor of The Vermont Economy Newsletter.