Question A:
Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the UK's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question B:
Because of the Brexit vote's outcome, the rest of the EU's real per-capita income level is likely to be lower a decade from now.
Responses
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence
Question A Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
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 Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Probably lower, but too much uncertainty. The UK-EU deal likely to be similar to the status quo ante, so should not have too large an effect
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 Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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There is substantial uncertainty about the contours of the going-forward relationship with the EU.
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 David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Main factors: lost trade in goods and services, especially for London City, coupled with delayed investment due to policy uncertainty.
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 Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The outcome depends on policy, but "likely" is the operative word here.
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 Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Brexit will cause big problems but in the short run. W/reasonable uk/eu terms, long run prospects no different (though Euro still doomed)
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 Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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distributional consequences are less clear. form of trade deals will matter a great deal.
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 Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Way too complicated to call.
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 Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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A post-Brexit agreement between U.K. and E.U. is likely to involve trade barriers. This will reduce gains from trade. The U.K. will suffer.
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 Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pluses and minuses to vote. Minus for financial sector. Plus for innovation, experimentation and decentralization.
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 Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Voter anger trumps econ considerations, but slowdown is underway and City of London is likely to shrink necessitating higher taxes
-see background information here -see background information here -see background information here |
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 Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hard to predict GDP levels ten years out, especially given uncertainty about what Brexit actually will mean.
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 Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The European Union has various structural problems, but exiting will lead to efficiency losses and to lower per capital income in the UK.
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 José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Less access to single market, specially in financial services, and immigration restrictions outweigh gains in deregulation and transfers.
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 Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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 Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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 Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This assumes they go through with it. Hoping reason prevails.
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 Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Very uncertain, because the path forward is so unclear.
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Question B Participant Responses
| Participant | University | Vote | Confidence | Bio/Vote History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Daron Acemoglu |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Two negative effects: greater uncertainty about the periphery's future, and absence of British lobbying for more open EU markets.
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Alberto Alesina |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Joseph Altonji |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Alan Auerbach |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Autor |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Katherine Baicker |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Abhijit Banerjee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Marianne Bertrand |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Markus Brunnermeier |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Raj Chetty |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Judith Chevalier |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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David Cutler |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Angus Deaton |
Princeton | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Darrell Duffie |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Factors: lost trade in goods and services, increased EU-existential uncertainty, and reduced UK moderating influence on policy choices.
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Aaron Edlin |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Barry Eichengreen |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Little long-run effect one way or the other, although there should be plenty of additional volatility in the short run.
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Liran Einav |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Ray Fair |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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I assume you mean lower than had the vote gone the other way, not lower than today.
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Amy Finkelstein |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Pinelopi Goldberg |
Yale | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Austan Goolsbee |
Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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See above. Switzerland like deal with uk will have little lasting damage. But Euro doomed either way.
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Michael Greenstone |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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form of trade deals will matter a great deal.
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Robert Hall |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Oliver Hart |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Both sides gain from trade and so the EU will also suffer. The per capita loss is likely to be smaller simply because the EU is bigger.
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Bengt Holmström |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Caroline Hoxby |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Hilary Hoynes |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Kenneth Judd |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The economic impact rest of EU is unclear since UK is less than 20% of EU. If Brexit leads to EU collapse then impact will be bad.
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Steven Kaplan |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Minus = short-term instability. Plus = may lead to less centralization, more innovation. Eurozone as is = problematic economically.
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Anil Kashyap |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Stability of rest of the EU much more in doubt. If anyone else leaves big transition costs for everyone. The politics around this are bad.
-see background information here |
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Pete Klenow |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Jonathan Levin |
Stanford | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Eric Maskin |
Harvard | Bio/Vote History | ||
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William Nordhaus |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Excluding migrants from capita for both cases.
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Emmanuel Saez |
Berkeley | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Larry Samuelson |
Yale | Bio/Vote History | ||
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The effect on the EU will be smaller than that on the UK, unless the European Union unravels further.
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José Scheinkman |
Columbia University | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Schmalensee |
MIT | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Carl Shapiro |
Berkeley | Did Not Answer | Bio/Vote History | |
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Robert Shimer |
University of Chicago | Bio/Vote History | ||
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Richard Thaler |
Chicago Booth | Bio/Vote History | ||
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This is bad for the EU even if sanity is restored and especially if the Brexit process begins. Could unravel.
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Christopher Udry |
Northwestern | Bio/Vote History | ||
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