Latest data shows that an estimated 7.3 million people in Sudan (16% of the population analyzed) are in high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between April and May (current period) and require urgent action. Of these, around 5.5 million people are classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) while around 1.8 million are critically food insecure classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). The most affected localities of Red Sea State (Halaib and Jubayt-el-maaadin) are classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). An increase in localized conflicts triggered population displacement, which, combined with the deterioration of the economy, led to higher than usual levels of acute food insecurity. As a result, the highest prevalence of population in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse are observed in North Darfur (25%), followed by West Darfur (22%), North Kordofan (20%), South Kordofan (20%), Gedarif (19%) and Central, East and South Darfur states, ranging from 17-18%.
During the first projection period (June–September 2021), which will coincide with the peak lean season, it is estimated that around 9.7 million people (21% of the population analyzed) will likely be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse. Compared to the same period of the June 2020 IPC analysis, there is a 1 percentage point increase in the prevalence of the population in Emergency and a 1 percentage point reduction in those in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). Although the total population in Crisis and Emergency has remained similar (21%), the severity has increased. There is also a noticeable deterioration (5% of the population analyzed) to worse IPC Phase classifications, mainly attributable to the impacts of the lean season, tribal conflicts, diminished labor opportunities causing low purchasing power, high food prices as well as inflation.