Assessments

Ecuador

Iran

Israel

China

Europe

A banner depicts IRGC missile models aimed at Israel on April 16 in the Iranian capital of Tehran. The ongoing confrontation may be entering a de-escalation phase after the April 19 Israeli counterstrike to Iran's April 13 salvo against Israel.

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Israel-Iran Conflict, Ecuador's Constitutional Referendum

Media

United States

Podcasts

Economics

Social Issues

What are the biggest issues with the U.S. healthcare system, and how can we address them?

RANE Insights: Addressing Problems in the U.S. Healthcare System

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Tit-for-tat military exchanges between Iran and its proxies against Israel will likely continue, with a constant risk of escalation.

Israel Launches Measured Attack on Iran, but Escalation Risks Remain

Iran will likely respond to Israel's attack, but the scope and size of Iran's response will depend on the scope of Israel's military actions, which is unclear at this time.

Israel Responds to the Iranian Attack

Russia

Guests attend a naming ceremony for the Valentin Pikul black class tanker of Russia's Rosneft oil company on Sept. 11, 2023, in Bolshoi Kamen, outside of Vladivostok, Russia. 

Energy

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russia's current economic challenges are unlikely to prompt Moscow to de-escalate in Ukraine this year or next, though a drop in oil revenues may eventually combine with other factors to change its calculations in the long term.

Reassessing Russia's Ability To Finance Its War in Ukraine

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 18, 2024

Iraq

Jordan

Palestinian Territories

Syria

The Jordanian flag. Jordan will remain aligned with the United States and Israel, which will result in a heightened risk of attacks by Iranian proxies and growing risks of radicalization.

Jordan will remain aligned with the United States and Israel, which will result in a heightened risk of attacks by Iranian proxies and growing risks of radicalization.

Jordan's Alignment With Israel Will Put It in Iran's Crosshairs

U.S.-Iran Relations

Singapore

A photo of Singapore's Parliament building against a cityscape.

Singapore's Incoming Prime Minister Brings a Fresh Face to an Old Regime

India

Bharatiya Janata Party flags on April 15 in the Indian city of Raipur. If India's ruling BJP party remains in power after the country's April 19-June 1 general election, policy continuity regarding efforts to increase employment, build infrastructure and implement controversial social policies nationally that trigger social unrest can be expected. 

If the ruling party in fact wins, policy continuity regarding employment, infrastructure and controversial social policies that trigger social unrest can be expected.

India's 2024 Elections Will Likely Generate Policy Continuity

Ethiopia

Somalia

A photo of the Somali flag.

As Somalia’s president moves to strengthen the country’s fragile state institutions, disputes over constitutional reforms threaten to deepen domestic and regional challenges.

Somalia's Constitutional Changes Widen Rifts at Home and Abroad

Japan

South Korea

U.S. President Joe Biden (right) and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida shake hands following a joint press conference in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 10, 2024, in Washington, D.C. 

Greater U.S.-Japan defense cooperation will exacerbate China's sense of entrapment, furthering Beijing's partnerships with authoritarian regimes and its long-term preparations for a Taiwan conflict.

Japan-U.S. Relationship Serves as a Model for Indo-Pacific Security, a Bad Omen for China

U.S.-China Relations

Latest

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

Congolese soldiers sit in a military vehicle in Kamanyola, a village in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, on Feb. 28, 2024. 

The intensifying fight against M23 rebels in eastern Congo risks triggering border clashes with Rwanda that could threaten Congolese President Tshisekedi's government and risk disrupting Congo's cobalt exports.

Where Is the Conflict in Eastern Congo Headed?

An aerial view shows residential buildings under construction by Chinese real estate developer Vanke in Hangzhou, in eastern China's Zhejiang province, on March 15, 2024. 

Without productivity-enhancing economic reform, China's economic growth will likely continue to slow amid insufficient demand and continued over-investment.

Gauging the Risk of a Systemic Financial Crisis in China

June 9 European Parliament elections will likely see right-wing and far-right parties make significant gains in several EU countries at the expense of center-left and green parties.

2024 Elections: The European Union

Moldova

People hold Moldovan national flags as they gather outside the presidential palace in Chisinau on Dec. 14, 2023, to celebrate the European Council's decision to open accession talks with Moldova.

In the lead-up to the October presidential election and referendum on Moldova's EU integration, Moscow and its Moldovan political allies will step up their efforts to destabilize the country's pro-European government.

In Moldova, Two Key Votes Portend More Pro-Russian Political Agitation

France

France's Prime Minister Gabriel Attal (C) speaks during the opening session of "Questions to the Prime Minister" at the French National Assembly in Paris, on April 3, 2024.

To right the sinking ship of France's public finances, Paris must implement unpopular economic measures that could lead to government collapse.

France's Budget Troubles Bode Ill for Macron Ahead of EU Elections

Palestinians walk past damaged buildings in Khan Yunis on April 8, 2024, after Israel pulled its ground forces out of the southern Gaza Strip. 

Israel is shifting to smaller, more targeted operations, but its apparent lack of a long-term governance plan for Gaza will enable Hamas to maintain influence there without fully appeasing Israel's international allies.

The Implications of Israel's Updated Gaza Strategy

Pakistan

People gather outside the provincial legislature of Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Assembly in Peshawar on Feb. 28, 2024. 

The delay may mar the upper house's credibility and cause political instability, but it is unlikely to significantly impede policymaking.


The Impact of Pakistan's Delayed Senate Formation

United Kingdom

A rendering of Earth from space at night with abstract 5G connection zones. 

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

In the United Kingdom and the United States, a focus on innovation will sideline robust artificial intelligence regulations.

The U.S. and U.K. Ramp Up Innovation-Focused AI Collaboration

Columns

On Geopolitics

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Ukraine

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

Mexico

Vietnam

In the coming years, rising nationalist and anti-globalization ideologies will likely lead to heightened geopolitical competition and trade/technological fragmentation that will impact relations between countries.

Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?

A Palestinian demonstrator waves a flag during confrontations with Israeli troops Jan. 6, 2023, in the West Bank village of Kfar Qaddum, near the Jewish settlement of Kedumim. A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

The Distant Prospect of a Palestinian State

Finland

Sweden

Norway

A heavy-lift helicopter operated by the U.S. military flies over a tank in Setermoen, Norway, during a military exercise involving NATO troops and partner countries on March 22, 2022. 

The U.S.'s new pacts with Sweden, Finland and Denmark signal its intent to play a key role in transforming NATO's approach to securing its northern flank against Russia.

The Significance of U.S. Defense Cooperation Agreements in Northern Europe

Ukrainian servicemen fire with a 105mm howitzer toward Russian positions near the city of Bakhmut on March 8, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine faces immense challenges in 2024 and 2025 that only increased Western support and a new strategy that brings the war inside Russia would be capable of overcoming. 

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: Ukraine's Challenge in 2024 and Beyond

On Security

Argentina

Chile

Costa Rica

Guatemala

Panama

Peru

Policemen guard the car of Mayor Luis Chonillo after an attack on the official May 15, 2023, in Duran, Ecuador. Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Forecasting Latin America's Next Crime Hotspot After Ecuador

Russian officials arrested Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov in full military uniform on corruption charges right after the Defense Ministry's Collegium meeting headed by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Ivanov's close associate, Reuters reported on April 24.

Russia: Deputy Defense Minister Arrested in Highest-Ranking Corruption Case Since War

Science & Technology

France is requesting that the European Union develop a new sanctions regime against Russia to mitigate disinformation campaigns and election interference, Bloomberg reported on April 24. 

France: Paris Asks EU for New Sanctions Regime Targeting Russian Disinformation

Taiwan

U.S. President Joe Biden signed a $95.3 billion aid package for Ukraine and Israel that passed through the Senate in a 79-18 vote with allocations to replenish Israel's missile defense systems and augment humanitarian support to Gaza, The New York Times reported on April 24.

U.S.: Washington Approves Aid for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and Expands Sanctions on Iran

The U.S. Senate passed a bill by a vote of 79-18 that includes a divest-or-ban mandate for the short-form U.S. video app TikTok, owned by China's ByteDance, The New York Times reported on April 23.

U.S., China: Senate Passes TikTok Divest-or-Ban Mandate

Germany

German European Parliament lawmaker Maximilian Krah said he will remain the lead candidate for the far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, party in the June European Parliament elections even though one of his aides was arrested for Chinese espionage, DW reported on April 24.

Germany: Another Scandal May Hurt Far-Right AfD in Upcoming EU Elections

EU officials raided the offices of Chinese security equipment supplier Nuctech in Poland and the Netherlands at the European Commission's request as part of an anti-foreign subsidy investigation the European Union is launching against the company, the Financial Times reported on April 24.

EU, China: EU Raids Offices of Chinese Company, Launches Probe Into Chinese Procurements

The European Parliament gave its final approval to a watered-down version of the EU Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, a legislative proposal that will require large companies in the bloc to screen their supply chains for environmental and human rights violations, according to a press release from the European Parliament on April 24.

EU: European Parliament Approves Supply Chain Due Diligence Directive

Benin

Niger

Nigerien oil arrived at the Beninese oil terminal of Seme using the Niger-Benin pipeline on April 21, Africanews reported on April 24.

Niger, Benin: Oil Pipeline Begins Operations

Australia

At their Annual General Meeting, 58% of Woodside Energy's shareholders rejected the Australian gas producer's climate plan in a non-binding vote, though activist investors failed to oust the company's chair, Reuters reported on April 24.

Australia: Woodside Energy's Shareholders Reject Climate Action Plan

North Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits the Vostochny Cosmodrome, a spaceport in Russia's Far East, on Sept. 13, 2023. 

Kim Jong Un appears to be setting a new direction for his country's regional and international policies, clearly aware of the vast uncertainties facing the global geopolitical situation.

North Korea's Foreign Affairs Hit an Inflection Point

Burkina Faso

Mali

South Africa

Turkey

Hong Kong SAR, China

Poland

Spain

Italy

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Bangladesh

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets of Argentina's major cities to protest spending cuts in public education, Clarin reported on April 23.

Argentina: Demonstrators Protest Public Spending Cuts Nationwide

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

In Moldova, Two Key Votes Portend More Pro-Russian Political Agitation

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia: Deputy Defense Minister Arrested in Highest-Ranking Corruption Case Since War

France: Paris Asks EU for New Sanctions Regime Targeting Russian Disinformation

U.S.: Washington Approves Aid for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and Expands Sanctions on Iran

U.S., China: Senate Passes TikTok Divest-or-Ban Mandate

Germany: Another Scandal May Hurt Far-Right AfD in Upcoming EU Elections

EU, China: EU Raids Offices of Chinese Company, Launches Probe Into Chinese Procurements

EU: European Parliament Approves Supply Chain Due Diligence Directive

Niger, Benin: Oil Pipeline Begins Operations

Australia: Woodside Energy's Shareholders Reject Climate Action Plan

Argentina: Demonstrators Protest Public Spending Cuts Nationwide

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