A Jordanian dilemma: King Abdullah II struggles to save the Hashemite dynasty, avoid having his country dragged into the Syrian bloodbath and overcome severe economic ills and ugly rumour to unite a divided society.
[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]A few weeks ago, King Abdullah II of Jordan and his son, Crown Prince Hussein, made a rare visit to Bedouin tribes in the north of the country to meet the leaders of the Bani Khalid, Shammar, Zbeid and other tribes who have long been the bedrock of support for the Hashemite monarchy.
That royal expedition, with the royal duo regaled in tribal garb, and other recent visits to tribal regions, were aimed at rallying the Bedouin who in recent months have become openly critical of the Hashemites, and to have them close ranks once again with the 50-year-old soldier king who faces growing discontent, much of it aimed at the monarchy his great-grandfather founded after World War I.
Jordanians' major complaint is the marked lack of much-promised political reform and action against corruption in the desert kingdom as Abdullah struggles to ensure the survival of the monarchy amid the dictator-toppling revolutions of the Arab Spring, to avoid being dragged into the bloody conflict in neighbouring Syria, to salvage the floundering Israel-Palestinian peace process and to overcome a severe economic crisis in his aid-dependent country.
"Calls for reform are rising on all sides," observed the US global security consultancy Stratfor. "The difficulty for King Abdullah is that different sides want different reforms. The urban Palestinians and other groups want greater political freedoms, less manipulation of parliament to favour the tribes and more social and economic liberalisation. Meanwhile, the tribesmen want less patronage for the Palestinians, more subsidies and more government jobs."
According to Stratfor, the King will be unable to completely satisfy these conflicting demands. He is negotiating from a position of weakness--his financial resources are limited, he lacks the support of the tribes and he is under pressure from the Muslim Brotherhood and other groups. Therefore, the thinking goes, King Abdullah will be forced to progressively relinquish more and more power both to the tribes and to the Palestinians. Jordan is not about to become a constitutional monarchy, with limited power for the King, but the possibility--like the pressure on the royal house--is growing.
Abdullah, who ascended the throne in February 1999 after the death of his long-reigning father, King Hussein, has repeatedly pledged to introduce sweeping democratic reforms. But so far he has failed to produce and sought to deflect criticism by blaming the governments he appoints.
So far he has gone through 10 prime ministers in his 13-year reign, three since the Arab Spring uprisings began in January 2011.
King Hussein was just as adept at changing governments to contain political unrest. Since Jordan's independence in 1946, the royal palace has appointed more than 60 prime ministers, invariably when Jordanians demanded reforms or more accountability.
That system seems to have worked remarkably well over the years. But now, with the impetus of the pro democracy revolutions that have toppled four Arab strongmen since February 2011 and could conceivably bring down a fifth, Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, Jordan's reformists have been galvanised and appear to be less willing to be fobbed off with promises of democratic change.
Unlike some regional monarchies, that have used their fabulous wealth to buy off reformist critics, Abdullah, who depends on foreign aid to hold the kingdom together, has to resort to more inventive means of keeping the wolf from the door of the Raghadan Palace.
The latest premier to go was Awn Shawkat Al Khasawneh, who suddenly resigned on 26 April only six months after King Abdullah appointed him.
That was a major setback for the King's struggle to maintain stability amid regional turmoil while maintaining as much power as he can for the monarchy established by Britain in 1922.
Political intrigue
Khasawneh, a respected international jurist, was apparently the victim of a power struggle with the kingdom's powerful security service, the General Intelligence Directorate (GID), long a pillar of the monarchy but which critics accuse of increasingly interfering in politics.
Khasawneh's surprise resignation as prime minister--submitted by letter while abroad--illustrates the intrigues behind the long-running political manoeuvring in Jordan. The royal palace, apparently taken unawares and anxious to deflect criticism of the King, put it about that Khasawneh was less than enthusiastic about reform.
But insiders say he was in reality frustrated at how his efforts to bring about meaningful political change were being sabotaged by the power elite. Politicians said he had been caught up in a power struggle with the security establishment.
The key element appears to have been Khasawneh's drive to root out deeply entrenched official corruption, a campaign that has led to judicial probes against senior establishment figures, including several GID chiefs, over the years.
"Khasawneh took office widely seen as a reformist and a liberal politician ... sharply critical of how the country was being managed," comments political analyst Mohammad Abu Rumman of the University of Jordan. "He expressed his intention to bring an end to intervention by the intelligence department in public affairs."
Khasawneh's legal background--he was deputy chief at the International Court of Justice in The Hague and a former adviser to Abdullah's late father, King Hussein--had been seen as an encouraging sign that reforms were on the way, when he took office in October 2011. Few think Abdullah's choice of a successor, leading conservative Fayez Tarawneh, will fare any better in bringing about reform.
Rotals targeted
When Abdullah ascended the throne, he inherited agitation for reform. But the pace of political change during his reign has been glacial, and talk of meaningful parliamentary democracy, where governments would be formed on a parliamentary majority rather than the whims of the monarch, has all but vanished in recent months.
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The King, once beyond public criticism, is now coming under direct attack, along with his wife, who has being accused of corruption. High unemployment and economic woes help fuel the growing anger.
Queen Rania, 41, whose parents are Palestinian, has long faced accusations she was playing too prominent a role in running the largely desert state, squeezed between the larger, neighbouring powers of Israel, Syria and Saudi Arabia.
But as the King, who she married in 1993 when he was a prince not then in line for the Hashemite throne, has sought to ride out the political turbulence unleashed in January 2011, she has become more of a target for popular ire.
The normally high-profile queen, a stylish, cosmopolitan beauty who was born in Kuwait, has been advised by Jordan's powerful security service to adopt a lower profile to deflect criticism of the monarchy at a time of regional turmoil.
In February 2011, shortly after the outbreak of the Arab Spring, 36 leaders of Jordan's main Bedouin tribes, traditionally the bedrock of support for the monarchy, published an open letter to Abdullah accusing Rania of corruption and setting up power centres to serve her own interests, as well as those of her family.
It was a watershed event because the accusations reached into the royal family itself, and at an extremely difficult time. But it was the first time the Bedouin had dared to challenge the King and his family so publicly, and that underscored the depth of the unrest sweeping Jordan.
Jordan, the letter said, "will sooner or later face the flood of Tunisia and Egypt due to the suppression of freedoms and the looting of public funds".
Syrian threat
Abdullah blamed Khasawneh for dragging his feet on reforms the King insists he ordered him to introduce. But there is talk that Abdullah privately concedes his agenda of gradual reforms has been blocked by powerful elements within the security establishment.
These shadowy figures are determined to prevent Islamists, the largest and most organised opposition group, from making the major political gains their brethren have made in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia.
Abdullah's innate caution has been heightened by the bloodbath in Syria, Jordan's powerful and often aggressive northern neighbour, that could engulf Jordan as it continues to stir up trouble in Lebanon and Iraq. The Saudis would like Jordan to join the anti-Syrian camp, but right now that is the last thing Abdullah wants.
The Palestinians are a problem too. More than half Jordan's population of 6.5 million is of Palestinian origin, many of them refugees and bitterly opposed to the 1994 peace agreement King Hussein signed with Israel.
The protests have so far been largely peaceful, even tame by Middle Eastern standards. But they mask a growing discontent among Palestinians, who although they make up some 60% of the population, control less than one in six parliamentary seats.
There is also increasingly stiff opposition from the Bedouin tribes, traditionally the bedrock of support for the monarchy. They feel threatened by the largely urban Palestinian business class that has amassed considerable economic power. They also fear Israel is seeking to drive Palestinians out of the West Bank to turn Jordan into the independent state they seek.
New pressures
Jordanian political analyst Labib Kamhawi said the resignation of Khasawneh, will mean "increased tension between the palace and popular movements seeKing reform."
The King's appointment of the US-educated Tarawneh as prime minister has heightened public anger. Tarawneh is a long-serving palace official and seen as a royal yesman who won't press for reforms--a perception heightened by the dominance of elderly Hashemite loyalists in his cabinet.
In recent days there has also been a nationwide surge of protests by Islamists and leftists demanding the abrogation of the 1994 peace treaty. Admittedly, that has been ongoing for 18 years. But these days, the mood is becoming darker and more aggressive as other Arab states overthrow longtime rulers and Israel constantly undermines a peace process with the Palestinians that many believe is on its last legs.
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For the moment, the opposition calls are for reform rather than regime change, but the signs are becoming clear that King Abdullah has failed to grasp the new pressures unleashed by the Arab Spring. Jordanian columnist Lamis Andoni fears the worst. "The regime has reached the conclusion--I believe a miscalculation--that it can carry on without making fundamental changes.
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It is betting the protest movement will get weaker and that it can fall back on its traditional power base of tribal leaders ... But the reality is that the economic situation will undermine those assumptions."
High-level corruption
Increasingly, Jordanians are holding Abdullah responsible for the lack of reforms and the failure to crack down on high-level corruption.
The unprecedented 2011 attack on Queen Rania by Bedouin leaders, long the most stalwart of the monarchy's supporters, was a vivid illustration of Jordanians' frustrations and anger at the absence of political and economic change.
Abdullah's efforts to mend fences with the Bedouin are complicated by the hostility between the tribes and the Muslim Brotherhood, a largely urban movement linked to the Palestinians.
The Bedouin, the original inhabitants of the region and known as "East Bankers" to distinguish them from Palestinians from the Israeli-occupied West Bank, resent the growing political power of the Brotherhood's political arm, the Islamic Action Front.
The IAF bristles at the monarchy's constant effort to hold it in check, particularly since the Arab Spring erupted. "The East Bankers' resentment towards the regime has been building since shortly after King Abdullah II's ascension to the throne ... and his move towards liberalisation," Stratfor observed.
The largely rural East Bankers, around 40% of Jordan's population, have long dominated Jordan's public sector, the royal palace, army, security apparatus and the bureaucracy, and do not want to lose their power and privileges. They still dominate parliament despite Islamist gains, which have been repeatedly thwarted to prevent them gaining a majority.
Shale oil lifeline
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Jordan has always had to depend on Saudi Arabia or Iraq for its energy needs. But that may be changing.
The kingdom has long been considered energy-barren, although it's been known for years that it sits on shale oil deposits that are reportedly the equivalent of 50 billion barrels of oil, mainly around the Dead Sea. It has been unable to exploit such riches because the cost of extraction, $65 a barrel, was prohibitive--until now, when the United States and other industrialised states have the technology to exploit their own shale deposits.
Amman announced in May it expects to produce the first barrels of shale oil by the end of 2012.
Officials say Amman will invest $20 billion in shale oil production over the next few years, presumably through hefty investment by international companies like Royal Dutch Shell.
In June, Energy Minister Alaa Batayneh said Amman finalised an agreement with Estonian-Malaysian consortium Enefit Energia to develop a 460-megawatt shale oil-fired power plant in the southeast that's due to go onstream in late 2016, which is expected to cut Jordan's energy imports by more than $500 million a year.
Innocent until ...
Despite ongoing rumours about the conduct of Queen Rania, such accusations remain without real substance. Her supporters claim it is her role as an educated example of contemporary 21st century Arab womanhood that is her real enemy among some of the more conservative, traditionalist Jordanians. The more progressive members of Amman society point to her involvement in raising the awareness of thorny issues such as honour killings and gender inequality, as well as her ongoing support for improving the situation of children and her role in promoting education as a tool for reform in the Middle East region. One Amman professional told The Middle East this week: "It is not Queen Rania personally they are against, it is a modern, forward looking woman in a position of power these people cannot stand the thought of. They say she is pro-Palestinian. So what? More than 50% of Jordanians also have strong associations with Palestine. So far, it is the only thing they have accused her of that they have been able to prove. Jordan does need political reform but its people do not want to overthrow the monarchy. The Arab Spring has been a wonderful thing for countries like Tunisia, Egypt and Libya but the waves of discontent have spread far and wide and this is what we are experiencing in Jordan at the present time. We need change but controlled and measured change. Anything else would be a parody."
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| Title Annotation: | Current Affairs/JORDAN |
|---|---|
| Author: | Blanche, Ed |
| Publication: | The Middle East |
| Geographic Code: | 7JORD |
| Date: | Jul 1, 2012 |
| Words: | 2363 |
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