Ali Alfoneh
Senior Fellow
@alfoneh
ali.alfoneh@agsiw.org
Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. He is a political scientist by training and the originator of the theory of transformation of the Islamic Republic into a military dictatorship. Alfoneh first put forward the theory in the spring 2006 edition of Udenrigs, journal of The Danish Foreign Policy Society. In the United States since 2007, Alfoneh advanced the theory in a series of essays published by the American Enterprise Institute culminating in Iran Unveiled: How the Revolutionary Guards are Transforming Iran from Theocracy into Military Dictatorship published by AEI Press in April 2013. He is also the author of Political Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Demise of the Clergy and the Rise of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (2020).
POLITICS AND GOVERNANCE
Blog Post
Iran Gets a New President and a Supreme Leader in Waiting
Ali Alfoneh Jun 21, 2021
Long rumored to be the favorite to succeed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ebrahim Raisi will use the presidency as a steppingstone.
POLITICS AND GOVERNANCE
Blog Post
Engineering Presidential Elections in Iran: Coronation of Raisi
Ali Alfoneh May 26, 2021
By narrowing the range of choice, Iran’s supreme leader and the Guardian Council effectively eliminate competition and reduce electoral participation, increasing the chances of their favorite candidate: Chief Justice Ebrahim Raisi.
POLITICS AND GOVERNANCE
Blog Post
Presidential Elections in Iran: Procedures, Candidates, and the Persistent Clout of Key Institutions
Ali Alfoneh Mar 19, 2021
Most speculation about the candidates and outcome of Iran’s upcoming presidential election appears premature, and assessments about potential impact on U.S.-Iranian relations seem exaggerated.
POLITICS AND GOVERNANCE
Videos
AGSIW Outlook 2021
Geneive Abdo, Ali Alfoneh, Kristin Smith Diwan, Hussein Ibish, Robert Mogielnicki, Ambassador Douglas A. Silliman and Emma Soubrier Jan 19, 2021
AGSIW experts explain what regional trends they’ll be following most closely as the year unfolds.
SECURITY
Blog Post
After the Embargo: Iran’s Weapons Agenda
Ali Alfoneh Oct 20, 2020
The lifting of the arms embargo is not likely to result in an Iranian buying spree. But, the Islamic Republic’s arms exports in the post-embargo era may prove as significant as its potential procurements.
POLITICS AND GOVERNANCE
Blog Post
As Iran’s Elite Fall Victim to Coronavirus, Succession Questions Arise
Ali Alfoneh Oct 7, 2020
None of Iran’s leadership hopefuls can seize power without IRGC support, and any future leader of the Islamic Republic will be beholden to the IRGC.
POLITICS AND GOVERNANCE
Blog Post
Iran Chooses a Harsher Tone as it Reacts to the Bahrain-Israel Rapprochement
Ali Alfoneh Sep 16, 2020
The normalization of relations with Israel provides another grievance Tehran can use to mobilize Bahrain’s Shias against their rulers.
POLITICS AND GOVERNANCE
Blog Post
IRGC Academic Journals Acknowledge Protests Often Driven by Regime Missteps
Ali Alfoneh Aug 18, 2020
Authors of articles published by Imam Hussein University of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps see the real challenges the regime is facing from the unprivileged slumdwellers and the politicized middle class and its grievances.
POLITICS AND GOVERNANCE
Blog Post
Iran Reacts Angrily to the UAE-Israel Landmark Agreement
Ali Alfoneh Aug 17, 2020
The Islamic Republic has yet to realize taking such a posture toward its Arab neighbors further encourages them to align with Iran’s adversaries.
SECURITY
Blog Post
IRGC’s Military Drills’ Message Aimed at the U.S. and a Domestic Iranian Audience
Ali Alfoneh Aug 3, 2020
The IRGC’s military exercises are little more than ineffective political propaganda.
About Us
Support
Careers
Contact
The Dhow
Privacy Policy
© 2021 Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
Subscribe to receive updates from AGSIW
ABOUT USTOPICSCOUNTRIESEVENTSCONTACTSUPPORT