The coronavirus pandemic is taking a toll on national economies across the world. This is especially acute in developing states such as Sudan, which is also facing record flooding, caused by heavy seasonal rains, that has damaged more than 111,000 homes and killed over a hundred people. Sudan was already struggling economically before these crises to the extent that people stood in line for hours just to buy bread.

Gulf Arab countries are playing a crucial role in Sudan, providing medical aid to fight the coronavirus, helping victims affected by the floods, and supplying large amounts of broader financial assistance. Sudan needs steady flows of aid now more than ever, yet Gulf assistance to Sudan has ebbed and flowed over the past two decades, closely linked to evolving political interests.

Approximately 5.5 million people rely on foreign assistance in Sudan. In 2019, the country needed around $8 billion in foreign aid to rebuild its economy following the 2018 uprising and coup that ousted President Omar al-Bashir. Since December 2019, the coronavirus has caused a reduction in remittances and prospects for livestock exports according to the United Nations Development Program. There has been an increase in the price of basic foods and a rise in unemployment. These factors, combined with the monetization of fiscal debt, have increased Sudan’s inflation to 136% as of June, according to the International Monetary Fund.

The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have been major aid donors to Sudan since 2015. However, this has not always been the case. According to Development Initiatives, a United Kingdom-based international development organization, the United States was the largest humanitarian donor to Sudan from 2000 to 2009. During that period, the United States provided 33.9% of total aid, followed by European Union institutions, which provided 13.4% of total official development assistance. Arab countries combined, including the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, contributed $146.4 million in 2000 and $81.8 million in 2008. The sum of humanitarian assistance from Arab countries amounted to 2.3% of total aid to Sudan during 2000 and 2009.

Aid Donors to Sudan 2000-09 (in million U.S. dollars)

Historical aid flows from the Gulf countries to Sudan contrast greatly with more recent aid trends. The East African country has received over $18.04 billion from various Gulf countries since 2015 according to the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. Even during the partition of Sudan and South Sudan in 2011, when Sudan faced an “economic shock” due to the loss of oil proceeds accounting for more than half of its government revenue and 95% of its exports, humanitarian assistance from the Gulf Arab countries was very low in comparison to aid flows after 2015. The dire economic conditions and a need for foreign support prompted the Sudanese government to shift its political alliances in 2014 by cutting ties with Iran and aligning with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Saudi Arabia strengthened its alliance with Sudan by donating $1 billion to Sudan’s central bank in 2015, which coincided with the beginning of the Saudi-led intervention into the war in Yemen. The kingdom was seeking to cultivate more allies in the region with an eye to recruiting soldiers to fight in Yemen because of its own limited number of troops. In addition to central bank deposits, development aid to Sudan from Saudi Arabia and the UAE has spiked since 2015. According to the American Enterprise Institute’s Gulf Financial Aid and Direct Investment Tracker, between 2005 and 2014 Saudi Arabia provided $333.1 million in financial aid assistance to Sudan while the UAE gave $124 million. Since 2015, Saudi Arabia has provided Sudan $1.5 billion in development assistance while the UAE has given $1.6 billion.

As Sudan received this increase in assistance, it joined the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen. In 2018, Sudan had at least 3,000 troops and numerous fighter jets in the country. Since then, however, Sudan has reduced the number of its soldiers in Yemen due to the change in government and pressure from local protests against involvement in the conflict. As of January, only 657 Sudanese military personnel remained in Yemen. Despite the economic benefits of this involvement, Sudan’s role in Yemen has caused additional trauma for the population as hundreds of young men have died in the war.

Qatar’s aid was not affected by the war in Yemen, though it was impacted by the Gulf crisis. Doha donated substantial amounts of aid to Sudan from 2012 to 2017 and, according to OCHA’s Financial Tracking Service, was the largest Gulf Arab donor to the country during that period. However, this changed after Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, and Bahrain cut diplomatic ties with Qatar in 2017 and imposed restrictions on the movement of goods and individuals. This caused a disruption to supply chains and trade in the region and affected Qatar’s humanitarian endeavors, including its aid flows to Sudan. According to scholars, the most significant impact of the Gulf crisis on Qatar has been its shrinking humanitarian sector, as many Qatari nongovernmental organizations have scaled down operations or closed.

As a result of the boycott, contributions from Qatar to Sudan shrank and aid flows from Saudi Arabia and the UAE increased. According to OCHA, in 2019, Doha donated $8,215 – its smallest donation to Sudan since 2015 – while Saudi Arabia donated $1.67 million. Gulf aid to Sudan in recent months has mainly focused on addressing the coronavirus pandemic. Qatar and the UAE have sent significant medical aid to the country since January.

Foreign aid is often political and driven by national strategic and diplomatic motivations, and economic, humanitarian, and cultural incentives. This seems to be the case in Sudan, as aid trends coincide with changing political interests of Gulf Arab countries, including Sudan’s involvement in the Yemen war. Many Sudanese people are questioning this foreign influence and are publicly recognizing the political dimensions of Gulf aid. Hints of this can be gleaned from popular slogans during protests: “We don’t want aid from Saudi Arabia, even if we have to eat fuul [beans] and taamiya [falafel].”

Like so many countries dependent on international assistance, the challenge facing Sudan is how to attract stable and sustainable aid flows that don’t fluctuate wildly depending on shifting political winds. This predictability will enable it to handle the effects of the coronavirus and recent floods, support its population, and achieve economic growth.