Putin’s New (Old) Russia Meets Biden’s New America
Alexander Baunov
What Moscow is proposing is a renewed format of Cold War–era relations, when the two sides operated in full recognition of their obvious differences, contained each other’s expansion, and together wrote the rules needed to avoid a fatal collision.
What Is Putin’s Mindset Ahead of His Meeting With Biden?
Dmitri Trenin
Putin will probably be interested in assessing where Biden’s real concerns lie; where the sensitive areas may be in which mutual restraint, rather than unattainable compromise arrangements, may be the best way forward for now; and how the United States might act and respond under different scenarios.
How Will U.S.-Russia Arms Control Affect the Geneva Summit?
James M. Acton
The following is based on remarks that James Acton gave to journalists on June 10, 2021 ahead of the summit between Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin in Geneva.
Four Unknowns Ahead of Russia’s 2021 Parliamentary Elections
Andrei Kolesnikov
Boris Makarenko
The Duma electoral campaign will lock in the inertia of parliamentary party dynamics. The regime will arrive at the 2024 presidential elections with a solid parliamentary majority.
Purges and Professionals: the Transformed Russian Regime
Tatiana Stanovaya
The changes of 2020–2021 have proven so sweeping and profound that the Russian regime is undergoing a renaissance. Everything is now either pro-regime or anti-regime—i.e., criminal.
Is Russia Right to Fear Creeping Militarization in Japan?
James Brown
If Japan’s quiet military revolution is indeed aimed against a specific threat, then that threat issues not from Russia but from China.
Podcast: Where Will the Crackdown in Belarus End?
Alexander Gabuev
Sabine Fischer
Artyom Shraibman
“Repression is spreading like gas in a room: as long as there’s space there, it’s going to expand.” What do the latest developments in Belarus mean for the country’s future?
Is There a Place for a U.S. Military Base in Central Asia?
Temur Umarov
It was not so long ago that the United States had military bases in the region. But now much depends on whether the advantages would outweigh the inevitable losses that Central Asian countries would sustain as a result of Moscow and Beijing’s displeasure.
How Disastrous Would Disconnection From SWIFT Be for Russia?
Maria Shagina
Seven years after threats were first made to cut Russia off from SWIFT, how well is Russia prepared to cope with disconnection from Western payment systems?
Going Global: Forced Landing Makes Lukashenko an International Problem
Artyom Shraibman
Russia is the only country that can truly influence the behavior of the Belarusian regime, so it’s only a matter of time before Western pressure is transferred from Minsk to Moscow.
Donbas Escalation Has Given Zelensky a Boost—But for How Long?
Konstantin Skorkin
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sees his growing popularity as proof that he chose the right course when he gave up trying to please all the disparate groups that voted for him in 2019. He is likely to continue his anti-Russian rhetoric and sanctions against domestic enemies.
In Declaring Navalny Extremist, Russia Has Crossed a New Rubicon
Andrey Pertsev
Declaring all opposition figures enemies of the state and illegal entities precludes any chance of dialogue: there might have been a place at the table for a non-system opposition activist, but not for an extremist.
Belarusian Media Onslaught Leaves Lukashenko With No Way Out
Artyom Shraibman
The Belarusian regime has backed itself into a corner, and is now scared to ease up the pressure, fearing that if angry people are given more freedom, there could be a repetition of last August’s sweeping protests.
Are There Any Winners of the War on the Kyrgyz-Tajik Border?
Temur Umarov
The recent escalation did not resemble a local dispute that got out of hand. Dark clouds have been gathering over the region for a long time, and the decision to embark on military action was taken at the highest level.
A Fresh Start on U.S. Arctic Policy Under Biden
Paul Stronski
Grace Kier
The Biden administration does not want conflict in the Arctic, but the potential for tension in the region depends not only on the U.S. administration, but on the actions of Russia (and China) too.
Why Fears of a Russia-Belarus Merger Never Come True
Dzianis Melyantsou
Belarus’s weakened position has not altered its traditional interests—or Minsk’s readiness to defend them. This is becoming increasingly obvious as the Belarusian regime regains control over the situation at home.
Inconceivable, Inevitable, Impossible Union: Lessons for Today From WWII-Era Soviet-Western Relations
Andrei Kolesnikov
Dmitri Trenin
The experience of the Soviet-American-British wartime coalition was unique and inimitable. Pulling the U.S.-Russian relationship back from the brink of confrontation to less antagonistic rivalry will only be possible in the event of major changes in the domestic politics of one or both countries.
Podcast: What’s the Point of the Latest U.S. Sanctions Against Russia?
Alexander Gabuev
Andrey Movchan
Maria Shagina
Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Andrey Movchan, a nonresident scholar in the Economic Policy Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center, and Maria Shagina, a postdoctoral fellow at the Center for Eastern European Studies at the University of Zurich, to discuss the impact of Western sanctions on the Russian economy.
What Does U.S. Recognition of the Armenian Genocide Mean for Turkey-Russia relations?
Kirill Zharov
Washington’s recognition of the Armenian genocide is far from the main problem in U.S.-Turkish relations, which have been in crisis now for several years.
Escalation and Retreat: The New Model for U.S.-Russian Relations?
Alexander Baunov
The deliberate stoking of tensions to enable a show of strength followed by an equally deliberate retreat could become an everyday tool used in foreign policy: a regular swing of the pendulum between escalation and de-escalation.

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