How Trump’s Tariffs Really Affected the U.S. Job Market
JANUARY 28, 2021
China Financial Markets provides in-depth analysis of one of the world’s largest and most vital economies. Edited by Carnegie Senior Fellow Michael Pettis based in Beijing, China Financial Markets offers monthly insights into income inequality, market structures, and other issues affecting China and other global economies. A noted expert on China’s economy, Pettis is a professor of finance at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management, where he specializes in Chinese financial markets.
Learn more
Subscribe Today
Sign up to receive China Financial Markets in your inbox!
Foreign Saving Gluts and American Financial Imbalances
12
December 01, 2020
The idea that trade imbalances are more likely to be the result of credit imbalances than of savings imbalances ignores the role of savings imbalances in creating credit imbalances. When a surplus country demands to be paid for its trade surplus with claims on American assets, the U.S. economy must adjust to create these assets—and one of the most common ways it does so is by expanding credit.
Why Foreign Debt Forgiveness Would Cost Americans Very Little
5
October 19, 2020
It is easy to assume that sovereign debt forgiveness involves a collective transfer of wealth from the creditor country to the debt-owing country, but this is only true under specific—and unrealistic—conditions. In today’s environment, sovereign debt forgiveness mainly represents a transfer within the creditor country. It benefits farmers and manufacturers in the creditor country at the expense of the country’s nonproductive savers.
Why Does It Matter If Interest Rates Are Below the GDP Growth Rate?
9
August 31, 2020
There is a widespread belief that a country’s national debt burden is sustainable if the interest rate on its debt is less than its expected GDP growth rate. But, in fact, the relationship between interest rates and the GDP growth rate reveals more about the distribution of income in a country than about the sustainability of its debt.
China’s Economy Needs Institutional Reform Rather Than Additional Capital Deepening
37
July 24, 2020
It is a mistake to assume that there is a global capital and technology frontier toward which every country must strive to acquire development. Economic development requires, above all, the right set of formal and informal institutions.
Why Higher U.S. Savings Won’t Save the Pandemic-Hit Economy
29
May 21, 2020
U.S. households will likely respond to the shocks of the pandemic by increasing their savings rates, as will foreign households. If the U.S. government does not decisively increase spending, higher American household savings will force either American debt or unemployment to rise even more.
Why It Won’t Matter Who Pays for Trade Protection
32
December 17, 2019
The debate about whether it is U.S. consumers or Chinese businesses that pay for American tariffs on Chinese-produced goods reveals absolutely nothing about whether the tariffs harm or benefit the U.S. economy.
MMT Heaven and MMT Hell for Chinese Investment and U.S. Fiscal Spending
71
October 11, 2019
There are conditions under which governments can create money—or debt—without fear of inflation or excessive debt burdens. There are other conditions under which debt or money creation can lead to inflation and balance sheet problems.
Washington Should Tax Capital Inflows
81
August 06, 2019
Taxing capital inflows is a far better way to balance trade than imposing tariffs. This would address the root causes of trade imbalances, improve the productive investment process, and shift most of the adjustment costs onto banks and speculators.
Facebook’s Libra: Does the World Need Frictionless Money?
23
June 27, 2019
Facebook seems to think its new digital currency Libra will be used mainly for purchasing goods and services and for current account transactions. But it will probably be used mainly for capital account transactions. Do we really want to eliminate frictional costs on the capital account?
Wealth Should Trickle Up, Not Down
34
June 19, 2019
Income inequality in the United States hampers growth and forces up debt. In advanced economies in which investment is not constrained by scarce savings, high levels of income inequality lead automatically to either more unemployment or more debt. Such inequality undermines not only the health of the economy, but eventually also the rich.
MORE

The Carnegie
Podcast
President Trump has made it clear that he wants to reduce the U.S trade deficit with China. If he follows through on his campaign promises to impose tariffs, how would China react? Is a trade deficit with China necessarily a bad thing for the US? One of the most thought-provoking economists on China, Michael Pettis examines the trade relationship between Washington and Beijing, and explains how the Chinese growth model is facing unique challenges.
The Carnegie Podcast is an occasional series featuring commentary and analysis from Carnegie experts on critical global issues.
RECENT COMMENTS
BSRK Aditya on How Trump’s Tariffs Really Affected the U.S. Job Market April 06, 2021
Moses Liao on Foreign Saving Gluts and American Financial Imbalances March 23, 2021
Dangermouse on Why Foreign Debt Forgiveness Would Cost Americans Very Little March 18, 2021
V.W. on How Trump’s Tariffs Really Affected the U.S. Job Market March 16, 2021
Yok on How Trump’s Tariffs Really Affected the U.S. Job Market March 05, 2021
c1ue on How Trump’s Tariffs Really Affected the U.S. Job Market February 24, 2021
jm on How Trump’s Tariffs Really Affected the U.S. Job Market February 06, 2021
Dan Berg on How Trump’s Tariffs Really Affected the U.S. Job Market February 05, 2021
Alan Hallman on How Trump’s Tariffs Really Affected the U.S. Job Market February 01, 2021
Itsmeagain on How Trump’s Tariffs Really Affected the U.S. Job Market January 31, 2021
Al Gabor on How Trump’s Tariffs Really Affected the U.S. Job Market January 31, 2021
Dingo34 on Why Higher U.S. Savings Won’t Save the Pandemic-Hit Economy January 27, 2021
Murchison on Why Does It Matter If Interest Rates Are Below the GDP Growth Rate? December 18, 2020
antonw on MMT Heaven and MMT Hell for Chinese Investment and U.S. Fiscal Spending December 18, 2020
SH on Foreign Saving Gluts and American Financial Imbalances December 14, 2020
Yok on Foreign Saving Gluts and American Financial Imbalances December 09, 2020
Damien on Foreign Saving Gluts and American Financial Imbalances December 04, 2020
Waleed Addas on Foreign Saving Gluts and American Financial Imbalances December 03, 2020
FrancisZ on Why Foreign Debt Forgiveness Would Cost Americans Very Little November 08, 2020
Craig on Why Foreign Debt Forgiveness Would Cost Americans Very Little November 08, 2020
CONNECT WITH US
PRIVACY STATEMENT
HELP DESK
SUPPORT CARNEGIE

1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20036-2103
Phone: 202 483 7600
Fax: 202 483 1840
Contact By Email
© 2021 All Rights Reserved
By using this website, you agree to our cookie policy.
Share this selection
Tweet
Facebook
SUPPORT CARNEGIETwitterFacebookYouTubeInstagramRSSPodcastsLinkedInEmailSEARCH"BeijingHome中文Issues主题Programs项目Experts专家Events会议Publications出版物About UsEmployment Opportunities StaffAdvisory CouncilFor MediaCarnegie–Tsinghua Young Ambassadors ProgramAbout Tsinghua UniversityPodcastsBeirutHomeعربيIssuesعربيRegionsالمناطقExpertsالباحثونEventsالأنشطةPublicationsالمنشوراتAbout UsEmployment OpportunitiesStaffAdvisory Council Sada Diwanإضاءة على النزاعات في المناطق الحدودية For MediaBrusselsHomeIssuesRegionsExpertsEventsPublicationsPublikationen auf deutsch Publications en français Judy Dempsey's Strategic EuropeFor MediaAbout UsEmployment OpportunitiesStaffMoscowHomeГлавная страницаProgramsПрограммыIssuesТемыExpertsЭкспертыEventsСобытияPublicationsПубликацииProjectsПроектыFor MediaAbout UsEmployment OpportunitiesStaffNew DelhiHomeIssuesRegionsExpertsEventsPublications About UsEmployment OpportunitiesStaffFor MediaWashingtonHomeIssuesRegionsPublicationsExpertsEventsProgramsProjectsAbout UsSupportAnnual ReportEmployment OpportunitiesDiversity and InclusionJunior Fellows ProgramStaffBoard of TrusteesConference CenterFor MediaFor GovernmentFor AcademicsDiwanSadaStrategic EuropeChina Financial MarketsThe World UnpackedEnglishExpertsPublicationsEventsРусскийЭкспертыПубликацииСобытия中文专家出版物会议FrançaisExpertsPublicationsDeutschExpertenPublikationenعربيالباحثونالمنشوراتالأنشطة About the Global Think TankSupport CarnegieConnect With Us