Contested migration and settler politics in Cyprus
Highlights
► The article examines the complexities of settler/migrant dichotomies in Cyprus. ► Natives equate colonization with territorial expansion but settlers often avoid direct conflict. ► Turkish settlers demonstrate low levels of politicization as socioeconomic features of migration trump nationalism. ► Natives might accept long-term settlers in exchange for guarantees against future colonization. ► Reserved lands and asymmetrical citizenship could balance settler vs. native concerns.
Introduction
In an era of nationalism, settlers and colonization have served as instruments of territorial expansion and control over contested territories. Colonization has often been combined with the ethnic cleansing of indigenous populations, driven by the belief that such demographic engineering will consolidate new and irreversible ‘facts’ on the ground (Lustick, 1993, McGarry and O’Leary, 1993: 10). In recent times, settlers are generally seen as violating international law and, therefore, garner little international sympathy, while in academia, social scientists tend to focus on more vulnerable groups, such as minorities at risk, displaced persons and refugees. Yet settlers in contested territories deserve both sympathy and academic attention, particularly since conflict processes often transform such populations from alleged beneficiaries of colonization to potential victims of discrimination and violence. Moreover, the presence of settlers is a crucial aspect of many conflicts and frequently the main obstacle in peace processes, as manifested recently in Israel/Palestine and in negotiations over the status of Kirkuk in Iraq, the Abyei province in Sudan and Kashmir. More importantly, societies built on a settler/indigenous divide tend to be inherently unstable, as settler expansionism frequently meets indigenous resistance.
However, as this article argues, despite the enormous problems colonization could create for a contested territory, settlers cannot be seen exclusively as a cause of controversy and conflict. To support this argument, the article evaluates two arguably opposing theoretical camps, namely, immigrants vs. settlers, in contested territories, drawing, on the one hand, on the seminal works of Laitin, 1998, Laitin, 2009 and Kymlicka (1995), and on the other hand, on Lustick, 1985, Lustick, 1988, Lustick, 1993. The article situates Cyprus within the broader debate on settlers in contested territories and identifies novel linkages in the intersection of immigration and ethnic conflict literatures. It argues that Turkish settlers in the island exhibit low levels of politicization despite fears of involuntary resettlement primarily because they meet the profile of migrant populations attached to daily survival issues rather than to territorial politics. While the article acknowledges that the resulting fluid categories of settler/migrants are malleable to nationalist framing, it also suggests that those remain amenable to innovative institutional design during peace processes. To make its point, the article analyzes mainstream discourses on settlers and colonization in the context of Cyprus and demonstrates how novel institutional arrangements such as asymmetrical citizenship, alternative compensation schemes and reserved territories for natives groups can facilitate peaceful accommodation of settler/native conflicts. It also integrates studies on accommodation mechanisms with broader theories on ethnicity and migration. Despite the growth of policy studies on peace mediation in territorial conflicts, relevant debates have rarely benefited from theoretical insights in the intersection of migration and ethnic conflict literatures. By specifying the conditions for settler/migrant mobilization and politicization, this study fills an important gap in the literature.
Section snippets
Settlers vs. migrants debate
The issue of populations transferred by Turkey to northern Cyprus presents an intriguing contrast between legal approaches to ethnic conflict resolution and sociological approaches focusing on migrants and immigration. Simply stated, the colonization of occupied territories, as in northern Cyprus, is a violation of international law. The Fourth Geneva Convention of 1949, of which Turkey is a signatory, explicitly stipulates that ‘the occupying power shall not deport or transfer parts of its own
Research design
To examine the antinomies of the settler/immigrant debate in Cyprus, the article uses a modified version of the ‘least likely’ case study research design. According to Eckstein (1975), a case could be crucial when it is ‘most’ or ‘least likely’ to fulfill a theoretical prediction (see also Gerring, 2007). Crucial cases of settler/immigrant populations are those which evidence low levels of mobilization and politicization despite discrimination, ethnic antipathy and fear of forceful
The conflict in Cyprus
Cyprus became independent from British rule in 1960, but power-sharing arrangements between Greek and Turkish Cypriots lasted only three years. Following the 1963–64 bicommunal clashes, Turkish Cypriots were forced to settle in enclaves and to abandon their share in the government (Necatigil, 1989, Patrick, 1976). In 1974, Turkey invaded Cyprus, claiming a right of intervention under the Treaty of Guarantee and de facto dividing Cyprus into Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot sections. As a
Settlers/migrants and native responses
Following the 2004 rejection of the Annan Plan and in light of negotiations since September 2008, the future status of Turkish settlers remains one of the most contentious issues in the Cyprus negotiations. Polls conducted among Greek and Turkish Cypriots in the past few years have indicated convergence in the views of the two communities on many issues – but not on settlers (Lordos, 2009, Lordos et al., 2009).
Official Greek Cypriot discourses describe the presence of settlers as a violation of
Settlers and (non)politicization
Interestingly, no recent major episodes have implicated settlers directly with incidents of political violence, and efforts to politicize settlers during elections have been short-lived and unsuccessful. Although settlers constitute a significant part of the electorate, in previous (as well as current) Turkish Cypriot assemblies, only a maximum of three members among 50 were natives of Turkey (Kıbrıs, 2003, KKTC, 2011). In the comparable cases of Israeli settlers (West Bank and Gaza), French
Annan plan and policy alternatives
Previous plans proposed by the UN for Cyprus, such as the aborted 2002–4 Annan Plan for reunification, shed light on how the international community understands settler issues. As mentioned above, UN mediators were confronted with a major discrepancy concerning the actual number of settlers; the Greek Cypriot side suggested a figure of 119,000, while Turkish Cypriots claimed the number was around 60,000 (UN, 2004b: 15; UN 2003: 22). In response, the UN suggested naturalizing 45,000 people, as
Asymmetrical citizenship
Asymmetrical citizenship mitigates many of the problems listed above. Differentiated asymmetrical citizenship implies different rights and obligations for citizens based on their ethnic origins. For instance, various compromises proposed for Cyprus suggest differentiated citizenship for Greek and Turkish Cypriots but not for settlers who are included in the Turkish Cypriot community. An alternative arrangement would be to provide settlers/migrants with permanent residency including equal social
Linkages and reserved lands
An alternative for the management of settler conflicts involves the use of linkage strategies for issues of major concern for natives, such as territory and refugee rights. Linkage arrangements create win–win incentives for both communities to endorse a settlement. In Cyprus, mediators have entertained the author’s earlier formula of preparing a flexible map across the federal border with final territorial re-adjustment to be determined on the basis of population movements among refugees and
Compensation mechanisms
Last, but by no means least, granting various forms of compensation to settlers willing to repatriate to Turkey is a valid consideration. It is important to note that voluntary compensation schemes can have unintended consequences or simply fail to work (Jervis, 1978: 174). The experience of international organizations in Bosnia and elsewhere suggests that trial and error strategies might be needed until optimal outcomes are reached (Dahlman & O′ Tuathail, 2005).
An option potentially applicable
Bridging theory and policy in contested spaces
The article confronts an important empirical and normative dilemma. While the colonization of occupied territories such as northern Cyprus is a violation of international norms, the indiscriminate expulsion of settlers and their descendants is equally problematic and a major source of future instability.
After decades, settlers often begin to resemble migrants in sociological terms, yet natives continue to view them as part of an expansionist policy of a threatening neighboring state. In
Conclusion
Irreversibility is a major and defining aim of any colonization project, as new demographic facts on the ground could define a community’s entitlement to a contested geographical space. A central question in Cyprus, as well as in other divided societies, is whether colonization has reached the point of ‘no return’, thereby ensuring an irreversible stalemate in a peace process. Emphasizing the normative and sociological dimensions of the settler/immigration experience, the article identifies
Acknowledgments
The author would like to thank Stefan Andreasson, Neriman Cakir, Karl Cordell, Bruce Clark, Elizabeth Doering, Oded Haklai, Donatella Giubilaro, Ayako Kagawa, Iosif Kovras, Ian Lustick, John McGarry, John Packer, Pauliina Raento, Nikos Trimikliniotis, Elizabeth Thompson, Erhun Sahali, Andreas Symeou, Djordje Stefanovic, Sherrill Stroschein and the three anonymous reviewers for their comments and assistance on earlier drafts of this manuscript. The project has been supported by the British
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