Space development and space science together, an historic opportunity

Abstract

The national space programs have an historic opportunity to help solve the global-scale economic and environmental problems of Earth while becoming more effective at science through the use of space resources. Space programs will be more cost-effective when they work to establish a supply chain in space, mining and manufacturing then replicating the assets of the supply chain so it grows to larger capacity. This has become achievable because of advances in robotics and artificial intelligence. It is roughly estimated that developing a lunar outpost that relies upon and also develops the supply chain will cost about 1/3 or less of the existing annual budgets of the national space programs. It will require a sustained commitment of several decades to complete, during which time science and exploration become increasingly effective. At the end, this space industry will capable of addressing global-scale challenges including limited resources, clean energy, economic development, and preservation of the environment. Other potential solutions, including nuclear fusion and terrestrial renewable energy sources, do not address the root problem of our limited globe and there are real questions whether they will be inadequate or too late. While industry in space likewise cannot provide perfect assurance, it is uniquely able to solve the root problem, and it gives us an important chance that we should grasp. What makes this such an historic opportunity is that the space-based solution is obtainable as a side-benefit of doing space science and exploration within their existing budgets. Thinking pragmatically, it may take some time for policymakers to agree that setting up a complete supply chain is an achievable goal, so this paper describes a strategy of incremental progress. The most crucial part of this strategy is establishing a water economy by mining on the Moon and asteroids to manufacture rocket propellant. Technologies that support a water economy will play an important role leading toward space development.

Introduction

Because of recent technological advances it has now become practical and affordable to establish a complete, robotic, industrial supply chain in space, enabling great science while promising tremendous benefits back on Earth [1]. Some of the benefits (mostly in space) occur in the early phase of establishing this industry, while more dramatic benefits occur after it becomes self-sufficient so that no further material need be launched from Earth and it can be scaled-up to great throughput. In this paper the end-state shall be called a Self-sufficient Replicating Space Industry, or SRSI. The main challenge for this concept is neither technology nor cost but simply convincing people it is realistic. In the 1970s Gerard K. O'Neill proposed orbiting space colonies, each with 10,000 residents who would manufacture solar power stations to beam clean energy to Earth at a profit. Senator William Proxmire said of the concept, “It's the best argument yet for chopping NASA's funding to the bone. As Chairman of the Senate Subcommittee responsible for NASA's appropriations, I say not a penny for this nutty fantasy … ” [2]. Likely, many people will have the same reaction to a program of bootstrapping SRSI.

To be pragmatic, we may consider this to be a three-stage program as shown in Table 1. Stage 1 is not a formal program but rather the combined activity of the space development community (both inside and outside government). It includes activities that (1) contribute to space industry, (2) can be justified on their own economic merit and therefore funded by whatever means are available, public or private, and (3) help convince policymakers to embrace SRSI. A strategy for Stage 1 activities is discussed toward the end of this paper. They contribute to space industry by maturing the necessary technologies, by establishing infrastructure in space that lowers the cost of operating in space (so then Stage 2 can be accomplished for less cost), by demonstrating to policymakers and the public the many benefits of space industry, and by building conviction among policymakers that the SRSI concept is feasible. The robotics revolution already occurring in terrestrial industry will also help show that SRSI is feasible. Ideally, Stage 2 would begin today. There is no reason to have Stage 1 except for the fact that Stage 2 is not yet funded, so we must take practical steps to help convince policymakers to begin Stage 2.

A model showing how Stage 2 can be done affordably was presented by Metzger et al. [1] and will be briefly summarize here. We now know that the Moon and Near Earth Asteroids have all the raw resources necessary for an industrial supply chain (e.g., lunar ice containing hydrogen, carbon, and nitrogen, and the regolith containing silicon, metals, and calcium) [4], [5], [6], [7], [8], [9], [10]. Space industry can robotically mine these bodies for robotic manufacturing, beginning by making those materials that are easiest and require the least infrastructure to produce. For example, it can mine water for propellant and make crude metal from lunar regolith for building structures. Over time the industry can expand by receiving additional hardware from Earth at the same time that portions of the hardware are being made in space. The industry works to broaden its capabilities until it makes all the materials and parts in space, having developed a complete supply chain. Stage 2 should only take a few decades given adequate funding.

Stage 3 begins when space industry no longer requires imports from Earth and it becomes sufficiently autonomous that it no longer requires teleoperators to control every machine, so it can be loosely supervised and directed to grow exponentially without much further expense. At that point it becomes capable of making things of great value, both to enable in-space objectives and to return benefit to Earth. Its exponential growth will be rapid so it can begin providing large-scale benefits by the middle of the century. When teleoperation is no longer so important, the majority of space industry can be relocated to the asteroid belt where the greater accessible resources of the inner solar system are located. It can then extend its support of human activity to the outer solar system, and it can support even larger objectives such as terraforming Mars [11], [12].

Ethical objections have been raised against space development, but others are claiming it is an ethical imperative. James S.J. Schwartz [3] has considered these positions and argued that (1) space development does not have a strong moral force behind it because it is unlikely to improve human welfare except in the far future, and (2) it will disrupt the efforts of space science, which actually does have strong moral force behind it. Therefore, he concludes that government should not change the legal and regulatory environment in ways that would help space development succeed. I will argue that both of his points are incorrect and that helping space industry to succeed should be a high priority. Although there have always been instances of development and science conflicting, we should ask whether the primary relationship between economic development and science has been one of conflict of one of mutual support. I agree with some additional concerns that Schwartz raised about commercial space development. For example, if asteroids have trillions of US dollars of value, then commercial asteroid mining could increase the disparity between rich and poor. I will argue that there is a large and necessary role for government in the bootstrapping of space industry. Thus, this concern can be mitigated.

The paper is organized as follows. Section 2 will discuss how robotic technology is changing the prognosis for starting a supply chain in space. It will argue that the technological barriers to SRSI are in the process of falling away and that there is no reason to delay Stage 2. Section 3 develops a rough cost estimate. It argues that the cost is low so again there is no reason to delay Stage 2. Section 4 discusses the scientific benefits of space development. It also considers how robotics technology is changing the discussion about humans performing space science missions versus just robots alone. I argue that when space development is considered there is a very strong argument for humans. Section 5 will discuss the potential economic, environmental, and existential benefits of SRSI. Section 6 will discuss a strategy for Stage 1 to convince policymakers to embrace SRSI. Section 7 is a summary with conclusions.