Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-dnltx Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-24T00:42:58.938Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Does Democratic Consolidation Lead to a Decline in Voter Turnout? Global Evidence Since 1939

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 July 2017

FILIP KOSTELKA
FILIP KOSTELKA*
Affiliation:
Université de Montréal and Sciences Po
*
Filip Kostelka is Postdoctoral Fellow, Research Chair in Electoral Studies, Département de science politique, Université de Montréal, C.P.6128, Succ. Centre-ville, Montreal, Canada, H3C 3J7 (filip.kostelka@umontreal.ca). He is also Associate Researcher at the Centre d’études européennes, Sciences Po, Paris (filip.kostelka@sciencespo.fr).
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This article challenges the conventional wisdom that democratic consolidation depresses voter turnout. Studying democratic legislative elections held worldwide between 1939 and 2015, it explains why voting rates in new democracies decrease when they do, how much they decrease, and how this phenomenon relates to the voter decline observed in established democracies. The article identifies three main sources of decline. The first and most important is the democratization context. When democratizations are opposition-driven or occur in electorally mobilized dictatorships, voter turnout is strongly boosted in the founding democratic elections. As time passes and the mobilizing democratization context loses salience, voting rates return to normal, which translates into turnout declines. The second source is the democratic consolidation context, which seems to depress voter turnout only in post-Communist democracies. Finally, new democracies mirror established democracies in that their voting rates have been declining since the 1970s, irrespective of the two previous mechanisms.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 111 , Issue 4 , November 2017 , pp. 653 - 667
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

The author thanks Vincent Arel-Bundock, Mauro Barisione, André Blais, Ramona Coman, Pascal Delwitt, Pascal Doray-Demers, Jean-Yves Dormagen, Mark Franklin, Claire Greenstein, Vlad Gross, Eric Guntermann, Antoine Jardin, Hans-Dieter Klingemann, Martin Kroh, Lucas Leemann, Nonna Mayer, Jean-Benoit Pilet, Jan Rovny, Nicolas Sauger, Luca Tomini, Vincent Tiberj, Milada A. Vachudova, Till Weber, and the editors and anonymous reviewers of the APSR for insightful comments on earlier drafts of the article. He gratefully acknowledges financial support of the Fondation nationale des sciences politiques (FNSP). When conducting this research, the author benefited from an intellectually stimulating and friendly environment at the Centre d’études européennes (CEE), Sciences Po, Paris; the European General Studies Programme, College of Europe, Bruges; the Research Chair in Electoral Studies, Département de Science Politique, Université de Montréal; and the Centre for the Study of Democratic Citizenship (CSDC), Québec.

References

REFERENCES

Allison, Paul David. 2009. Fixed Effects Regression Models. Los Angeles, CA: SAGE.Google Scholar
Baltagi, Badi H. 2008. Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. Chichester, UK; John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Google Scholar
Beck, Nathaniel. 2011. “Of Fixed-Effects and Time-Invariant Variables.” Political Analysis 19 (2): 119–22.Google Scholar
Bernhagen, Patrick, and Marsh, Michael. 2007. “Voting and Protesting: Explaining Citizen Participation in Old and New European Democracies.” Democratization 14 (1): 44–72.Google Scholar
Blais, André. 2000. To Vote or Not to Vote? The Merits and Limits of Rational Choice Theory. Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh Press.Google Scholar
Blais, André. 2007. “Turnout in Elections.” In The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior, eds. Klingemann, Hans-Dieter and Dalton, Russell J.. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 621–35.Google Scholar
Blais, André, Gidengil, Elisabeth, and Nevitte, Neil. 2004. “Where Does Turnout Decline Come From?” European Journal of Political Research 43 (2): 221–36.Google Scholar
Blais, André, and Rubenson, Daniel. 2013. “The Source of Turnout Decline: New Values or New Contexts?” Comparative Political Studies 46 (1): 95–117.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E., and Stokes, Donald E.. 1960. The American Voter. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Carlin, Ryan. 2006. “The Decline of Citizen Participation in Electoral Politics in Post-Authoritarian Chile.” Democratization 13 (4): 632–51.Google Scholar
Chang, Alex. 2012. “Youth Participation in East Asia.” In Taipei. http://www.asianbarometer.org/newenglish/publications/ConferencePapers/2012_9conference/Paper5.pdf.Google Scholar
Coffé, Hilde, and van derLippe, Tanja. 2010. “Citizenship Norms in Eastern Europe.” Social Indicators Research 96 (3): 479–96.Google Scholar
Comşa, Mircea. 2015. “Turnout Decline in Romanian National Elections: Is It That Big?” Studia UBB Sociologia 60 (2): 59–83.Google Scholar
Dahl, Robert Alan. 1971. Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Dalton, Russell J. 2000. “Citizen Attitudes and Political Behavior.” Comparative Political Studies 33 (6-7): 912–40.Google Scholar
Fornos, Carolina A., Power, Timothy J., and Garand, James C.. 2004. “Explaining Voter Turnout in Latin America, 1980 to 2000.” Comparative Political Studies 37 (8): 909–40.Google Scholar
Franklin, Mark N. 2002. “The Dynamics of Electoral Participation.” In Comparing Democracies 2: New Challenges in the Study of Elections and Voting, eds. LeDuc, Lawrence, Niemi, Richard G., and Norris, Pippa. London, UK: SAGE, 148–65.Google Scholar
Franklin, Mark N. 2004. Voter Turnout and the Dynamics of Electoral Competition in Established Democracies since 1945. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Gallego, Aina. 2009. “Where Else Does Turnout Decline Come From? Education, Age, Generation and Period Effects in Three European Countries.” Scandinavian Political Studies 32 (1): 23–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gasiorowski, Mark J., and Power, Timothy J.. 1998. “The Structural Determinants of Democratic Consolidation Evidence from the Third World.” Comparative Political Studies 31 (6): 740–71.Google Scholar
Gerber, Alan S., Green, Donald P., and Shachar, Ron. 2003. “Voting May Be Habit-Forming: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment.” American Journal of Political Science 47 (3): 540–50.Google Scholar
Geys, Benny. 2006. “Explaining Voter Turnout: A Review of Aggregate-Level Research.” Electoral Studies 25 (4): 637–63.Google Scholar
Gray, Mark, and Caul, Miki. 2000. “Declining Voter Turnout in Advanced Industrial Democracies, 1950 to 1997 The Effects of Declining Group Mobilization.” Comparative Political Studies 33 (9): 1091–122.Google Scholar
Hausman, Jerry A. 1978. “Specification Tests in Econometrics.” Econometrica 46 (6): 1251–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herron, Erik. 2009. Elections and Democracy after Communism? Basingstoke, UK: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
Hughes, S., and Guerrero, M. A.. 2009. “The Disenchanted Voter: Emotional Attachment, Social Stratification, and Mediated Politics in Mexico's 2006 Presidential Election.” The International Journal of Press/Politics 14 (3): 353–75.Google Scholar
Huntington, Samuel P. 1991. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late 20th Century. Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press.Google Scholar
Inglehart, Ronald. 1990. Culture Shift in Advanced Industrial Society. Princenton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Inglehart, Ronald, and Catterberg, Gabriela. 2002. “Trends in Political Action: The Developmental Trend and the Post-Honeymoon Decline.” International Journal of Comparative Sociology 43 (3-5): 300–16.Google Scholar
Klingemann, Hans-Dieter. 2014. “Dissatisfied Democrats. Evidence from Old and New Democracies.” In The Civic Culture Transformed From Allegiant to Assertive Citizens, eds. Dalton, Russell J. and Welzel, Christian. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 126–57.Google Scholar
Klingemann, Hans-Dieter, and Dalton, Russell J.. 2007. “Citizens and Political Behaviour.” In The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior, eds. Dalton, Russell J. and Klingemann, Hans-Dieter. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 3–28.Google Scholar
Knutsen, Oddbjørn. 2007. “24. The Decline of Social Class?” In The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior, Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 457–81.Google Scholar
Konzelmann, Laura, Wagner, Corina, and Rattinger, Hans. 2012. “Turnout in Germany in the Course of Time: Life Cycle and Cohort Effects on Electoral Turnout from 1953 to 2049.” Electoral Studies 31 (2): 250–61.Google Scholar
Kostadinova, Tatiana. 2003. “Voter Turnout Dynamics in post‐Communist Europe.” European Journal of Political Research 42 (6): 741–59.Google Scholar
Kostadinova, Tatiana. 2009. “Abstain or Rebel: Corruption Perceptions and Voting in East European Elections.” Politics & Policy 37 (4): 691–714.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kostadinova, Tatiana, and Power, Timothy J.. 2007. “Does Democratization Depress Participation? Voter Turnout in the Latin American and Eastern European Transitional Democracies.” Political Research Quarterly 60 (3): 363–77.Google Scholar
Kostelka, Filip. 2014. “The State of Political Participation in Post-Communist Democracies: Low but Surprisingly Little Biased Citizen Engagement.” Europe-Asia Studies 66 (6): 945–68.Google Scholar
Kostelka, Filip. 2015. “To Mobilise and Demobilise: The Puzzling Decline of Voter Turnout in Post-Communist Democracies.” PhD Dissertation, Centre d’études européennes, Sciences Po, Paris.Google Scholar
Kostelka, Filip. 2017. “Distant Souls: Post-Communist Emigration and Voter Turnout.” Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies 43 (7): 1061–83.Google Scholar
Lehoucq, Fabrice, and Wall, David L.. 2004. “Explaining Voter Turnout Rates in New Democracies: Guatemala.” Electoral Studies 23 (3): 485–500.Google Scholar
Linz, Juan J., and Stepan, Alfred. 1996. Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Lyons, William, and Alexander, Robert. 2000. “A Tale of Two Electorates: Generational Replacement and the Decline of Voting in Presidential Elections.” The Journal of Politics 62 (4): 1014–34.Google Scholar
Marshall, Monty G. 2016. Polity IV Project: Dataset Users’ Manual. Center for Systemic Peace.Google Scholar
Mayer, Nonna. 2010. Sociologie des comportements politiques. Paris, FR: Armand Colin.Google Scholar
McDonald, Michael P., and Popkin, Samuel L.. 2001. “The Myth of the Vanishing Voter.” American Political Science Review 95 (4): 963–74.Google Scholar
McDonough, Peter, Shin, Doh C., and Álvaro Moisés, José. 1998. “Democratization and Participation: Comparing Spain, Brazil, and Korea.” The Journal of Politics 60 (4): 919–53.Google Scholar
Miller, Warren E., and Merrill Shanks, J.. 1996. The New American Voter. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Mishler, William, and Rose, Richard. 1997. “Trust, Distrust and Skepticism: Popular Evaluations of Civil and Political Institutions in Post-Communist Societies.” The Journal of Politics 59 (2): 418–51.Google Scholar
Nohlen, Dieter, ed. 2005. Elections in the Americas: South America. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Nohlen, Dieter, Grotz, Florian, and Hartmann, Christof, eds. 2001. Elections in Asia and the Pacific: The Middle East, Central Asia, and South Asia. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Nohlen, Dieter, Krennerich, Michael, and Thibaut, Bernhard, eds. 1999. Elections in Africa: A Data Handbook. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Nohlen, Dieter, and Stöver, Philip, eds. 2010. Elections in Europe: A Data Handbook. Baden-Baden, Germany: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norris, Pippa. 2002. Democratic Phoenix: Reinventing Political Activism. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norris, Pippa. 2011. Democratic Deficit: Critical Citizens Revisited. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
O'Donnell, Guillermo, Schmitter, Philippe C., and Whitehead, Laurence. 1986. Transitions from Authoritarian Rule, Vol. 4: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Pacek, Alexander C., Pop-Eleches, Grigore, and Tucker, Joshua A.. 2009. “Disenchanted or Discerning: Voter Turnout in Post-Communist Countries.” The Journal of Politics 71 (2): 473–91.Google Scholar
Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem. 2004. “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels.” Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics.Google Scholar
Plutzer, Eric. 2002. “Becoming a Habitual Voter: Inertia, Resources, and Growth in Young Adulthood.” American Political Science Review 96 (1): 41–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Przeworski, Adam, Michael, E. Alvarez, Jose Antonio Cheibub, and Fernando Limongi. 2000. Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950–1990. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Putnam, Robert. 2000. Bowling Alone. New York: Simon & Schuster.Google Scholar
Rose, Richard, and Munro, Neil. 2003. Elections and Parties in New European Democracies. Washington D.C.: CQ Press.Google Scholar
Rupnik, Jacques. 1996. “The Post-Totalitarian Blues.” In The Global Resurgence of Democracy, eds. Diamond, Larry Jay and Plattner, Marc F.. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 365–78.Google Scholar
Rustow, Dankwart A. 1970. “Transitions to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic Model.” Comparative Politics 2 (3): 337–63.Google Scholar
Schumpeter, Joseph Alois. 1942. Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. New York, NY: Harper.Google Scholar
Stockemer, Daniel. 2015. “District Magnitude and Electoral Turnout: A Macro-Level Global Analysis.” Acta Politica 50 (1): 82–100.Google Scholar
Stockemer, Daniel. 2016. “What Affects Voter Turnout? A Review Article/Meta-Analysis of Aggregate Research.” Government and Opposition. https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2016.30 Google Scholar
Svolik, Milan. 2008. “Authoritarian Reversals and Democratic Consolidation.” American Political Science Review 102 (2): 153–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Svolik, Milan. 2015. “Which Democracies Will Last? Coups, Incumbent Takeovers, and the Dynamic of Democratic Consolidation.” British Journal of Political Science 45 (4): 715–38.Google Scholar
Turner, Arthur W. 1993. “Postauthoritarian Elections.” Comparative Political Studies 26 (3): 330–49.Google Scholar
Wass, Hanna. 2007. “The Effects of Age, Generation and Period on Turnout in Finland 1975–2003.” Electoral Studies 26 (3): 648–59.Google Scholar
Wattenberg, Martin P. 2003. “Electoral Turnout: The New Generation Gap.” British Elections & Parties Review 13 (1): 159–73.Google Scholar
Welzel, Christian, and Inglehart, Ronald. 2006. “Emancipative Values and Democracy: Response to Hadenius and Teorell.” Studies in Comparative International Development 41 (3): 74–94.Google Scholar
Wilson, Sven E., and Butler, Daniel M. 2007. “A Lot More to Do: The Sensitivity of Time-Series Cross-Section Analyses to Simple Alternative Specifications.” Political Analysis 15 (2): 101–23.Google Scholar
Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. 2010. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Kostelka Dataset

Dataset

http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/MYSRXT
Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Kostelka supplementary material

Kostelka supplementary material

Download Kostelka supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 631 KB