Maximum entropy probability distribution

In statistics and information theory, a maximum entropy probability distribution has entropy that is at least as great as that of all other members of a specified class of probability distributions. According to the principle of maximum entropy, if nothing is known about a distribution except that it belongs to a certain class (usually defined in terms of specified properties or measures), then the distribution with the largest entropy should be chosen as the least-informative default. The motivation is twofold: first, maximizing entropy minimizes the amount of prior information built into the distribution; second, many physical systems tend to move towards maximal entropy configurations over time.

Definition of entropy and differential entropy edit

If   is a continuous random variable with probability density  , then the differential entropy of   is defined as[1][2][3]

 

If   is a discrete random variable with distribution given by

 

then the entropy of   is defined as

 

The seemingly divergent term   is replaced by zero, whenever  

This is a special case of more general forms described in the articles Entropy (information theory), Principle of maximum entropy, and differential entropy. In connection with maximum entropy distributions, this is the only one needed, because maximizing   will also maximize the more general forms.

The base of the logarithm is not important, as long as the same one is used consistently: Change of base merely results in a rescaling of the entropy. Information theorists may prefer to use base 2 in order to express the entropy in bits; mathematicians and physicists often prefer the natural logarithm, resulting in a unit of "nat"s for the entropy.

However, the chosen measure   is crucial, even though the typical use of the Lebesgue measure is often defended as a "natural" choice: Which measure is chosen determines the entropy and the consequent maximum entropy distribution.

Distributions with measured constants edit

Many statistical distributions of applicable interest are those for which the moments or other measurable quantities are constrained to be constants. The following theorem by Ludwig Boltzmann gives the form of the probability density under these constraints.

Continuous case edit

Suppose   is a continuous, closed subset of the real numbers   and we choose to specify   measurable functions   and   numbers   We consider the class   of all real-valued random variables which are supported on   (i.e. whose density function is zero outside of  ) and which satisfy the   moment conditions:

 

If there is a member in   whose density function is positive everywhere in   and if there exists a maximal entropy distribution for   then its probability density   has the following form:

 

where we assume that   The constant   and the   Lagrange multipliers   solve the constrained optimization problem with   (which ensures that   integrates to unity):[4]

 

Using the Karush–Kuhn–Tucker conditions, it can be shown that the optimization problem has a unique solution because the objective function in the optimization is concave in  

Note that when the moment constraints are equalities (instead of inequalities), that is,

 

then the constraint condition   can be dropped, which makes optimization over the Lagrange multipliers unconstrained.

Discrete case edit

Suppose   is a (finite or infinite) discrete subset of the reals, and that we choose to specify   functions   and   numbers   We consider the class   of all discrete random variables   which are supported on   and which satisfy the   moment conditions

 

If there exists a member of class   which assigns positive probability to all members of   and if there exists a maximum entropy distribution for   then this distribution has the following shape:

 

where we assume that   and the constants   solve the constrained optimization problem with  [5]

 

Again as above, if the moment conditions are equalities (instead of inequalities), then the constraint condition   is not present in the optimization.

Proof in the case of equality constraints edit

In the case of equality constraints, this theorem is proved with the calculus of variations and Lagrange multipliers. The constraints can be written as

 

We consider the functional

 

where   and   are the Lagrange multipliers. The zeroth constraint ensures the second axiom of probability. The other constraints are that the measurements of the function are given constants up to order  . The entropy attains an extremum when the functional derivative is equal to zero:

 

Therefore, the extremal entropy probability distribution in this case must be of the form ( ),

 

remembering that  . It can be verified that this is the maximal solution by checking that the variation around this solution is always negative.

Uniqueness of the maximum edit

Suppose   are distributions satisfying the expectation-constraints. Letting   and considering the distribution   it is clear that this distribution satisfies the expectation-constraints and furthermore has as support   From basic facts about entropy, it holds that   Taking limits   and   respectively, yields  

It follows that a distribution satisfying the expectation-constraints and maximising entropy must necessarily have full support — i. e. the distribution is almost everywhere strictly positive. It follows that the maximising distribution must be an internal point in the space of distributions satisfying the expectation-constraints, that is, it must be a local extreme. Thus it suffices to show that the local extreme is unique, in order to show both that the entropy-maximising distribution is unique (and this also shows that the local extreme is the global maximum).

Suppose   are local extremes. Reformulating the above computations these are characterised by parameters   via   and similarly for   where   We now note a series of identities: Via 1the satisfaction of the expectation-constraints and utilising gradients / directional derivatives, one has

  and similarly for   Letting   one obtains:

 

where   for some   Computing further one has

 

where   is similar to the distribution above, only parameterised by   Assuming that no non-trivial linear combination of the observables is almost everywhere (a.e.) constant, (which e.g. holds if the observables are independent and not a.e. constant), it holds that   has non-zero variance, unless   By the above equation it is thus clear, that the latter must be the case. Hence   so the parameters characterising the local extrema   are identical, which means that the distributions themselves are identical. Thus, the local extreme is unique and by the above discussion, the maximum is unique – provided a local extreme actually exists.

Caveats edit

Note that not all classes of distributions contain a maximum entropy distribution. It is possible that a class contain distributions of arbitrarily large entropy (e.g. the class of all continuous distributions on R with mean 0 but arbitrary standard deviation), or that the entropies are bounded above but there is no distribution which attains the maximal entropy.[a] It is also possible that the expected value restrictions for the class C force the probability distribution to be zero in certain subsets of S. In that case our theorem doesn't apply, but one can work around this by shrinking the set S.

Examples edit

Every probability distribution is trivially a maximum entropy probability distribution under the constraint that the distribution has its own entropy. To see this, rewrite the density as   and compare to the expression of the theorem above. By choosing   to be the measurable function and

 

to be the constant,   is the maximum entropy probability distribution under the constraint

 .

Nontrivial examples are distributions that are subject to multiple constraints that are different from the assignment of the entropy. These are often found by starting with the same procedure   and finding that   can be separated into parts.

A table of examples of maximum entropy distributions is given in Lisman (1972)[6] and Park & Bera (2009).[7]

Uniform and piecewise uniform distributions edit

The uniform distribution on the interval [a,b] is the maximum entropy distribution among all continuous distributions which are supported in the interval [a, b], and thus the probability density is 0 outside of the interval. This uniform density can be related to Laplace's principle of indifference, sometimes called the principle of insufficient reason. More generally, if we are given a subdivision a=a0 < a1 < ... < ak = b of the interval [a,b] and probabilities p1,...,pk that add up to one, then we can consider the class of all continuous distributions such that

 

The density of the maximum entropy distribution for this class is constant on each of the intervals [aj-1,aj). The uniform distribution on the finite set {x1,...,xn} (which assigns a probability of 1/n to each of these values) is the maximum entropy distribution among all discrete distributions supported on this set.

Positive and specified mean: the exponential distribution edit

The exponential distribution, for which the density function is

 

is the maximum entropy distribution among all continuous distributions supported in [0,∞) that have a specified mean of 1/λ.

In the case of distributions supported on [0,∞), the maximum entropy distribution depends on relationships between the first and second moments. In specific cases, it may be the exponential distribution, or may be another distribution, or may be undefinable.[8]

Specified mean and variance: the normal distribution edit

The normal distribution N(μ,σ2), for which the density function is

 

has maximum entropy among all real-valued distributions supported on (−∞,∞) with a specified variance σ2 (a particular moment). The same is true when the mean μ and the variance σ2 is specified (the first two moments), since entropy is translation invariant on (−∞,∞). Therefore, the assumption of normality imposes the minimal prior structural constraint beyond these moments. (See the differential entropy article for a derivation.)

Discrete distributions with specified mean edit

Among all the discrete distributions supported on the set {x1,...,xn} with a specified mean μ, the maximum entropy distribution has the following shape:

 

where the positive constants C and r can be determined by the requirements that the sum of all the probabilities must be 1 and the expected value must be μ.

For example, if a large number N of dice are thrown, and you are told that the sum of all the shown numbers is S. Based on this information alone, what would be a reasonable assumption for the number of dice showing 1, 2, ..., 6? This is an instance of the situation considered above, with {x1,...,x6} = {1,...,6} and μ = S/N.

Finally, among all the discrete distributions supported on the infinite set   with mean μ, the maximum entropy distribution has the shape:

 

where again the constants C and r were determined by the requirements that the sum of all the probabilities must be 1 and the expected value must be μ. For example, in the case that xk = k, this gives

 

such that respective maximum entropy distribution is the geometric distribution.

Circular random variables edit

For a continuous random variable   distributed about the unit circle, the Von Mises distribution maximizes the entropy when the real and imaginary parts of the first circular moment are specified[9] or, equivalently, the circular mean and circular variance are specified.

When the mean and variance of the angles   modulo   are specified, the wrapped normal distribution maximizes the entropy.[9]

Maximizer for specified mean, variance and skew edit

There exists an upper bound on the entropy of continuous random variables on   with a specified mean, variance, and skew. However, there is no distribution which achieves this upper bound, because   is unbounded when   (see Cover & Thomas (2006: chapter 12)).

However, the maximum entropy is ε-achievable: a distribution's entropy can be arbitrarily close to the upper bound. Start with a normal distribution of the specified mean and variance. To introduce a positive skew, perturb the normal distribution upward by a small amount at a value many σ larger than the mean. The skewness, being proportional to the third moment, will be affected more than the lower order moments.

This is a special case of the general case in which the exponential of any odd-order polynomial in x will be unbounded on  . For example,   will likewise be unbounded on  , but when the support is limited to a bounded or semi-bounded interval the upper entropy bound may be achieved (e.g. if x lies in the interval [0,∞] and λ< 0, the exponential distribution will result).

Maximizer for specified mean and deviation risk measure edit

Every distribution with log-concave density is a maximal entropy distribution with specified mean μ and deviation risk measure D .[10]

In particular, the maximal entropy distribution with specified mean   and deviation   is:

  • The normal distribution   if   is the standard deviation;
  • The Laplace distribution, if   is the average absolute deviation;[6]
  • The distribution with density of the form   if   is the standard lower semi-deviation, where   are constants and the function   returns only the negative values of its argument, otherwise zero.[10]

Other examples edit

In the table below, each listed distribution maximizes the entropy for a particular set of functional constraints listed in the third column, and the constraint that   be included in the support of the probability density, which is listed in the fourth column.[6][7]

Several listed examples (Bernoulli, geometric, exponential, Laplace, Pareto) are trivially true, because their associated constraints are equivalent to the assignment of their entropy. They are included anyway because their constraint is related to a common or easily measured quantity.

For reference,   is the gamma function,   is the digamma function,   is the beta function, and   is the Euler-Mascheroni constant.

Table of probability distributions and corresponding maximum entropy constraints
Distribution name Probability density / mass function Maximum Entropy constraint Support
Uniform (discrete)   None  
Uniform (continuous)   None  
Bernoulli      
Geometric      
Exponential      
Laplace      
Asymmetric Laplace  
where  
   
Pareto      
Normal    
 
 
Truncated normal (see article)  
 
 
von Mises    
 
 
Rayleigh    
 
 
Beta   for    
 
 
Cauchy      
Chi    
 
 
Chi-squared    
 
 
Erlang    

 

 
Gamma    
 
 
Lognormal    
 
 
Maxwell–Boltzmann    
 
 
Weibull    
 
 
Multivariate normal  
 
 
 
 
Binomial    
  n-generalized binomial distribution[11]
 
Poisson    
 -generalized binomial distribution}[11]
 
Logistic    
 
 

The maximum entropy principle can be used to upper bound the entropy of statistical mixtures.[12]

See also edit

Notes edit

  1. ^ For example, the class of all continuous distributions X on R with E(X) = 0 and E(X2) = E(X3) = 1 (see Cover, Ch 12).

Citations edit

  1. ^ Williams, D. (2001). Weighing the Odds. Cambridge University Press. pp. 197–199. ISBN 0-521-00618-X.
  2. ^ Bernardo, J.M.; Smith, A.F.M. (2000). Bayesian Theory. Wiley. pp. 209, 366. ISBN 0-471-49464-X.
  3. ^ O'Hagan, A. (1994), Bayesian Inference. Kendall's Advanced Theory of Statistics. Vol. 2B. Edward Arnold. section 5.40. ISBN 0-340-52922-9.
  4. ^ Botev, Z.I.; Kroese, D.P. (2011). "The generalized cross entropy method, with applications to probability density estimation" (PDF). Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability. 13 (1): 1–27. doi:10.1007/s11009-009-9133-7. S2CID 18155189.
  5. ^ Botev, Z.I.; Kroese, D.P. (2008). "Non-asymptotic bandwidth selection for density estimation of discrete data". Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability. 10 (3): 435. doi:10.1007/s11009-007-9057-zv. S2CID 122047337.
  6. ^ a b c Lisman, J. H. C.; van Zuylen, M. C. A. (1972). "Note on the generation of most probable frequency distributions". Statistica Neerlandica. 26 (1): 19–23. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9574.1972.tb00152.x.
  7. ^ a b Park, Sung Y.; Bera, Anil K. (2009). "Maximum entropy autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model" (PDF). Journal of Econometrics. 150 (2): 219–230. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.511.9750. doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2008.12.014. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-03-07. Retrieved 2011-06-02.
  8. ^ Dowson, D.; Wragg, A. (September 1973). "Maximum-entropy distributions having prescribed first and second moments". IEEE Transactions on Information Theory (correspondance). 19 (5): 689–693. doi:10.1109/tit.1973.1055060. ISSN 0018-9448.
  9. ^ a b Jammalamadaka, S. Rao; SenGupta, A. (2001). Topics in circular statistics. New Jersey: World Scientific. ISBN 978-981-02-3778-3. Retrieved 2011-05-15.
  10. ^ a b Grechuk, Bogdan; Molyboha, Anton; Zabarankin, Michael (2009). "Maximum entropy principle with general deviation measures". Mathematics of Operations Research. 34 (2): 445–467. doi:10.1287/moor.1090.0377 – via researchgate.net.
  11. ^ a b Harremös, Peter (2001). "Binomial and Poisson distributions as maximum entropy distributions". IEEE Transactions on Information Theory. 47 (5): 2039–2041. doi:10.1109/18.930936. S2CID 16171405.
  12. ^ Nielsen, Frank; Nock, Richard (2017). "MaxEnt upper bounds for the differential entropy of univariate continuous distributions". IEEE Signal Processing Letters. 24 (4). IEEE: 402–406. Bibcode:2017ISPL...24..402N. doi:10.1109/LSP.2017.2666792. S2CID 14092514.

References edit