This article needs to be updated. The reason given is: Speculation about there being a recession currently due to COVID-19. Possibly add information about what models, economists, etc. say. Please update this to reflect recent events or newly available information. (April 2020)
, a recession
is a business cycle
contraction when there is a general decline in economic activity.
Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending (an adverse demand shock
). This may be triggered by various events, such as a financial crisis
, an external trade shock, an adverse supply shock
, the bursting of an economic bubble
, or a large-scale anthropogenic
or natural disaster
(e.g. a pandemic
). In the United States, it is defined as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP
, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales".
In the United Kingdom, it is defined as a negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters.
Put simply, a recession is the decline of economic activity, which means that the public has stopped buying products for a while which can cause the downfall of GDP
after a period of economic expansion (a time where products become popular and the income profit
of a business becomes large). This causes inflation (the rise of product prices). In a recession, the rate of inflation slows down, stops, or becomes negative.
In a 1974 The New York Times
article, Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Julius Shiskin suggested several rules of thumb for defining a recession, one of which was two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
In time, the other rules of thumb were forgotten. Some economists prefer a definition of a 1.5-2 percentage points rise in unemployment within 12 months.
In the United States
, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research
(NBER) is generally seen as the authority for dating US recessions. The NBER, a private economic research organization, defines an economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP
, real income
, employment, industrial production
, and wholesale
Almost universally, academics, economists, policy makers, and businesses refer to the determination by the NBER for the precise dating of a recession's onset and end.
A recession has many attributes that can occur simultaneously and includes declines in component measures of economic activity (GDP) such as consumption, investment
, government spending, and net export activity. These summary measures reflect underlying drivers such as employment levels and skills, household savings rates, corporate investment decisions, interest rates, demographics, and government policies.
Economist Richard C. Koo
wrote that under ideal conditions, a country's economy should have the household sector as net savers and the corporate sector
as net borrowers, with the government budget nearly balanced and net exports
When these relationships become imbalanced, recession can develop within the country or create pressure for recession in another country. Policy responses are often designed to drive the economy back towards this ideal state of balance.
Type of recession or shape
The type and shape of recessions are distinctive. In the US, v-shaped, or short-and-sharp contractions followed by rapid and sustained recovery, occurred in 1954 and 1990–91; U-shaped (prolonged slump) in 1974–75, and W-shaped, or double-dip recessions
in 1949 and 1980–82. Japan's 1993–94 recession was U-shaped and its 8-out-of-9 quarters of contraction in 1997–99 can be described as L-shaped. Korea
, Hong Kong
and South-east Asia experienced U-shaped recessions in 1997–98, although Thailand
’s eight consecutive quarters of decline should be termed L-shaped.
Recessions have psychological and confidence aspects. For example, if companies expect economic activity to slow, they may reduce employment levels and save money
rather than invest. Such expectations can create a self-reinforcing downward cycle, bringing about or worsening a recession.
Consumer confidence is one measure used to evaluate economic sentiment.
The term animal spirits
has been used to describe the psychological
factors underlying economic activity. Economist Robert J. Shiller
wrote that the term "...refers also to the sense of trust we have in each other, our sense of fairness in economic dealings, and our sense of the extent of corruption and bad faith. When animal spirits are on ebb, consumers do not want to spend and businesses do not want to make capital expenditures or hire people."
Behavioral economics, has also explained some psychological biases that may trigger a recession including availability heuristic, money illusion, and non-regressive prediction.
Balance sheet recession
High levels of indebtedness or the bursting of a real estate or financial asset price bubble can cause what is called a "balance sheet recession". This is when large numbers of consumers or corporations pay down debt (i.e., save) rather than spend or invest, which slows the economy. The term balance sheet
derives from an accounting identity that holds that assets must always equal the sum of liabilities plus equity. If asset prices fall below the value of the debt incurred to purchase them, then the equity must be negative, meaning the consumer or corporation is insolvent. Economist Paul Krugman
wrote in 2014 that "the best working hypothesis seems to be that the financial crisis
was only one manifestation of a broader problem of excessive debt—that it was a so-called "balance sheet recession". In Krugman's view, such crises require debt reduction strategies combined with higher government spending to offset declines from the private sector as it pays down its debt.
For example, economist Richard Koo wrote that Japan's "Great Recession" that began in 1990 was a "balance sheet recession". It was triggered by a collapse in land and stock prices, which caused Japanese firms to have negative equity
, meaning their assets were worth less than their liabilities. Despite zero interest rates
and expansion of the money supply
to encourage borrowing, Japanese corporations in aggregate opted to pay down their debts from their own business earnings rather than borrow to invest as firms typically do. Corporate investment, a key demand component of GDP, fell enormously (22% of GDP) between 1990 and its peak decline in 2003. Japanese firms overall became net savers after 1998, as opposed to borrowers. Koo argues that it was massive fiscal stimulus (borrowing and spending by the government) that offset this decline and enabled Japan to maintain its level of GDP. In his view, this avoided a U.S. type Great Depression
, in which U.S. GDP fell by 46%. He argued that monetary policy was ineffective because there was limited demand for funds while firms paid down their liabilities. In a balance sheet recession, GDP declines by the amount of debt repayment and un-borrowed individual savings, leaving government stimulus spending as the primary remedy.
Krugman discussed the balance sheet recession concept during 2010, agreeing with Koo's situation assessment and view that sustained deficit spending
when faced with a balance sheet recession would be appropriate. However, Krugman argued that monetary policy could also affect savings behavior, as inflation or credible promises of future inflation (generating negative real interest rates) would encourage less savings. In other words, people would tend to spend more rather than save if they believe inflation is on the horizon. In more technical terms, Krugman argues that the private sector savings curve is elastic even during a balance sheet recession (responsive to changes in real interest rates) disagreeing with Koo's view that it is inelastic (non-responsive to changes in real interest rates).
A July 2012 survey of balance sheet recession research reported that consumer demand and employment are affected by household leverage
levels. Both durable and non-durable goods consumption declined as households moved from low to high leverage with the decline in property values experienced during the subprime mortgage crisis
. Further, reduced consumption due to higher household leverage can account for a significant decline in employment levels. Policies that help reduce mortgage debt or household leverage could therefore have stimulative effects.
A liquidity trap
is a Keynesian
theory that a situation can develop in which interest rates reach near zero (zero interest-rate policy
) yet do not effectively stimulate the economy. In theory, near-zero interest rates should encourage firms and consumers to borrow and spend. However, if too many individuals or corporations focus on saving or paying down debt rather than spending, lower interest rates have less effect on investment and consumption behavior; the lower interest rates are like "pushing on a string
". Economist Paul Krugman
described the U.S. 2009 recession
and Japan's lost decade
as liquidity traps. One remedy to a liquidity trap is expanding the money supply via quantitative easing
or other techniques in which money is effectively printed to purchase assets, thereby creating inflationary
expectations that cause savers to begin spending again. Government stimulus spending and mercantilist
policies to stimulate exports and reduce imports are other techniques to stimulate demand.
He estimated in March 2010 that developed countries representing 70% of the world's GDP were caught in a liquidity trap.
Paradoxes of thrift and deleveraging
Behavior that may be optimal for an individual (e.g., saving more during adverse economic conditions) can be detrimental if too many individuals pursue the same behavior, as ultimately one person's consumption is another person's income. Too many consumers attempting to save (or pay down debt) simultaneously is called the paradox of thrift
and can cause or deepen a recession. Economist Hyman Minsky
also described a "paradox of deleveraging" as financial institutions that have too much leverage (debt relative to equity) cannot all de-leverage simultaneously without significant declines in the value of their assets.
During April 2009, U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen
discussed these paradoxes: "Once this massive credit crunch
hit, it didn’t take long before we were in a recession. The recession, in turn, deepened the credit crunch as demand and employment fell, and credit losses of financial institutions surged. Indeed, we have been in the grips of precisely this adverse feedback
loop for more than a year. A process of balance sheet deleveraging has spread to nearly every corner of the economy. Consumers are pulling back on purchases, especially on durable goods, to build their savings. Businesses are cancelling planned investments and laying off workers to preserve cash. And, financial institutions are shrinking assets to bolster capital and improve their chances of weathering the current storm. Once again, Minsky understood this dynamic. He spoke of the paradox of deleveraging, in which precautions that may be smart for individuals and firms—and indeed essential to return the economy to a normal state—nevertheless magnify the distress of the economy as a whole."
The U.S. Conference Board's Present Situation Index year-over-year change turns negative by more than 15 points before a recession.
The U.S. Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator year-over-year change turns negative before a recession.
When the CFNAI Diffusion Index drops below the value of -0.35, then there is an increased probability
of the beginning a recession. Usually, the signal happens in the three months of the recession. The CFNAI Diffusion Index signal tends to happen about one month before a related signal by the CFNAI-MA3 (3-month moving average) drops below the -0.7 level. The CFNAI-MA3 correctly identified the 7 recessions between March 1967–August 2019, while triggering only 2 false alarms.
Except for the above, there are no known completely reliable predictors, but the following are considered possible predictors.
- The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago posts updates of the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI).
- The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis posts the Weekly Economic Index (Lewis-Mertens-Stock) (WEI).
- The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis posts the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities (RECPROUSM156N).
- Inverted yield curve, the model developed by economist Jonathan H. Wright, uses yields on 10-year and three-month Treasury securities as well as the Fed's overnight funds rate. Another model developed by Federal Reserve Bank of New York economists uses only the 10-year/three-month spread.,
- The three-month change in the unemployment rate and initial jobless claims. U.S. unemployment index defined as the difference between the 3-month average of the unemployment rate and the 12-month minimum of the unemployment rate.Unemployment momentum and acceleration with Hidden Markov model.
- Index of Leading (Economic) Indicators (includes some of the above indicators).
- Lowering of asset prices, such as homes and financial assets, or high personal and corporate debt levels.
- Commodity prices may increase before recessions, which usually hinders consumer spending by making necessities like transportation and housing costlier. This will tend to constrict spending for non-essential goods and services. Once the recession occurs, commodity prices will usually reset to a lower level.
- Increased income inequality.
- Decreasing recreational vehicle shipments.
- Declining trucking volumes.
Analysis by Prakash Loungani
of the International Monetary Fund
found that only two of the sixty recessions around the world during the 1990s had been predicted by a consensus of economists one year earlier, while there were zero consensus predictions one year earlier for the 49 recessions during 2009.
S&P 500 and BBB bond spread to shows the probability of a recession
A study using the S&P 500 and BBB bond spread to shows the probability of a recession in the next year.
Peaking of High Yield Bonds Spread relation to S&P 500 Returns
A study reported that the average returns of the S&P 500 were -19% in the 3rd month before the Peaking of the High Yield Bonds Spread (BBB), but were +41% in the 24th month after the Peaking.
Most mainstream economists
believe that recessions are caused by inadequate aggregate demand
in the economy, and favor the use of expansionary macroeconomic policy during recessions. Strategies favored for moving an economy out of a recession vary depending on which economic school the policymakers follow. Monetarists
would favor the use of expansionary monetary policy
, while Keynesian
economists may advocate increased government spending
to spark economic growth. Supply-side
economists may suggest tax cuts to promote business capital
investment. When interest rates reach the boundary of an interest rate of zero percent (zero interest-rate policy
) conventional monetary policy can no longer be used and government must use other measures to stimulate recovery. Keynesians argue that fiscal policy
—tax cuts or increased government spending—works when monetary policy fails. Spending is more effective because of its larger multiplier
but tax cuts take effect faster.
For example, Paul Krugman
wrote in December 2010 that significant, sustained government spending was necessary because indebted households
were paying down debts and unable to carry the U.S. economy as they had previously: "The root of our current troubles lies in the debt American families ran up during the Bush-era housing bubble...highly indebted Americans not only can’t spend the way they used to, they’re having to pay down the debts they ran up in the bubble years. This would be fine if someone else were taking up the slack. But what’s actually happening is that some people are spending much less while nobody is spending more — and this translates into a depressed economy and high unemployment. What the government should be doing in this situation is spending more while the private sector is spending less, supporting employment while those debts are paid down. And this government spending needs to be sustained..."
Keynes on Government Response
John Maynard Keynes
believed that government institutions could stimulate aggregate demand in a crisis. “Keynes showed that if somehow the level of aggregate demand could be triggered, possibly by the government printing currency notes to employ people to dig holes and fill them up, the wages that would be paid out would resuscitate the economy by generating successive rounds of demand through the multiplier process”
Some recessions have been anticipated by the stock market declines. In Stocks for the Long Run
, Siegel mentions that since 1948, ten recessions were preceded by a stock market decline, by a lead time of 0 to 13 months (average 5.7 months), while ten stock market declines of greater than 10% in the Dow Jones Industrial Average
were not followed by a recession.
market also usually weakens before a recession.
However real-estate declines can last much longer than recessions.
Since the business cycle is very hard to predict, Siegel argues that it is not possible to take advantage of economic cycles for timing investments. Even the National Bureau of Economic Research
(NBER) takes a few months to determine if a peak or trough has occurred in the US.
During an economic decline, high-yield stocks
such as fast-moving consumer goods
, and tobacco
tend to hold up better.
However, when the economy starts to recover and the bottom of the market has passed, growth stocks
tend to recover faster.
There is significant disagreement about how health care and utilities tend to recover.
Diversifying one's portfolio into international stocks may provide some safety; however, economies that are closely correlated with that of the U.S. may also be affected by a recession in the U.S.
There is a view termed the halfway rule
according to which investors start discounting an economic recovery about halfway through a recession. In the 16 U.S. recessions since 1919, the average length has been 13 months, although the recent recessions have been shorter. Thus, if the 2008 recession had followed the average, the downturn in the stock market would have bottomed around November 2008. The actual US stock market bottom of the 2008 recession was in March 2009.
Generally, an administration gets credit or blame for the state of economy during its time.
This has caused disagreements about on how it actually started.
In an economic cycle, a downturn can be considered a consequence of an expansion reaching an unsustainable state, and is corrected by a brief decline. Thus it is not easy to isolate the causes of specific phases of the cycle.
The 1981 recession is thought to have been caused by the tight-money policy adopted by Paul Volcker
, chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, before Ronald Reagan
took office. Reagan supported that policy. Economist Walter Heller
, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in the 1960s, said that "I call it a Reagan-Volcker-Carter recession."
The resulting taming of inflation
did, however, set the stage for a robust growth period during Reagan's presidency.
Economists usually teach that to some degree recession is unavoidable, and its causes are not well understood.
Unemployment is particularly high during a recession. Many economists working within the neoclassical paradigm argue that there is a natural rate of unemployment
which, when subtracted from the actual rate of unemployment, can be used to calculate the negative GDP
gap during a recession. In other words, unemployment never reaches 0 percent, and thus is not a negative indicator of the health of an economy unless above the "natural rate", in which case it corresponds directly to a loss in the gross domestic product, or GDP
The full impact of a recession on employment may not be felt for several quarters. Research in Britain shows that low-skilled, low-educated workers and the young are most vulnerable to unemployment
in a downturn. After recessions in Britain in the 1980s and 1990s, it took five years for unemployment to fall back to its original levels.
Many companies often expect employment discrimination claims to rise during a recession.
tends to fall in the early stages of a recession, then rises again as weaker firms close. The variation in profitability
between firms rises sharply. The fall in productivity could also be attributed to several macro-economic factors, such as the loss in productivity observed across UK due to Brexit
, which may create a mini-recession in the region. Global epidemics
, such as COVID-19
, could be another example, since they disrupt the global supply chain or prevent movement of goods, services and people.
Recessions have also provided opportunities for anti-competitive mergers
, with a negative impact on the wider economy: the suspension of competition policy
in the United States in the 1930s may have extended the Great Depression.
The living standards
of people dependent on wages and salaries
are not more affected by recessions than those who rely on fixed incomes
or welfare benefits
. The loss of a job is known to have a negative impact on the stability of families, and individuals' health and well-being. Fixed income benefits receive small cuts which make it tougher to survive.
According to the International Monetary Fund
(IMF), "Global recessions seem to occur over a cycle lasting between eight and 10 years."
The IMF takes many factors into account when defining a global recession. Until April 2009, IMF several times communicated to the press, that a global annual real GDP
growth of 3.0 percent or less in their view was "...equivalent to a global recession".
By this measure, six periods since 1970 qualify: 1974–1975,
During what IMF in April 2002 termed the past three global recessions of the last three decades, global per capita output growth was zero or negative, and IMF argued—at that time—that because of the opposite being found for 2001, the economic state in this year by itself did not qualify as a global recession
In April 2009, IMF had changed their Global recession definition to:
A decline in annual per‑capita real World GDP (purchasing power parity weighted), backed up by a decline or worsening for one or more of the seven other global macroeconomic indicators: Industrial production, trade, capital flows, oil consumption, unemployment rate, per‑capita investment, and per‑capita consumption.
By this new definition, a total of four global recessions took place since World War II
: 1975, 1982, 1991 and 2009. All of them only lasted one year, although the third would have lasted three years (1991–93) if IMF as criteria had used the normal exchange rate weighted per‑capita real World GDP rather than the purchase power parity weighted per‑capita real World GDP.
The worst recession Australia has ever suffered happened in the beginning of the 1930s. As a result of late 1920s profit issues in agriculture and cutbacks, 1931-1932 saw Australia's biggest recession in its entire history. It fared better than other nations, that underwent depressions
, but their poor economic states influenced Australia's as well, that depended on them for export, as well as foreign investments
. The nation also benefited from bigger productivity in manufacturing, facilitated by trade protection, which also helped with feeling the effects less.
Due to a credit squeeze, the economy had gone into a brief recession in 1961 Australia was facing a rising level of inflation
in 1973, caused partially by the oil crisis happening in that same year, which brought inflation at a 13% increase. Economic recession hit by the middle of the year 1974, with no change in policy enacted by the government as a measure to counter the economic situation of the country. Consequently, the unemployment level rose and the trade deficit increased significantly.
Another recession – the most recent one to date – came in the 1990s, at the beginning of the decade. It was the result of a major stock collapse in 1987, in October,
referred to now as Black Monday
. Although the collapse was larger than the one in 1929, the global economy recovered quickly, but North America still suffered a decline in lumbering savings and loans, which led to a crisis. The recession wasn't limited to only America, but it also affected partnering nations, such as Australia. The unemployment level increased to 10.8%, employment declined by 3.4% and the GDP also decreased as much as 1.7%. Inflation, however, was successfully reduced. Australia is facing recession in 2020 due to the impact of the bush fires and Covid-19 impacting tourism and other important aspects of the economy.
The most recent recession to affect the United Kingdom was the 2020 recession attributed to the COVID‑19
global pandemic, the first recession since the late-2000s recession
According to economists, since 1854, the U.S. has encountered 32 cycles of expansions and contractions, with an average of 17 months of contraction and 38 months of expansion.
However, since 1980 there have been only eight periods of negative economic growth over one fiscal quarter or more,
and four periods considered recessions:
For the past three recessions, the NBER decision has approximately conformed with the definition involving two consecutive quarters of decline. While the 2001 recession did not involve two consecutive quarters of decline, it was preceded by two quarters of alternating decline and weak growth.
Official economic data shows that a substantial number of nations were in recession as of early 2009. The US entered a recession at the end of 2007,
and 2008 saw many other nations follow suit. The US recession of 2007 ended in June 2009
as the nation entered the current economic recovery. The timeline of the Great Recession
details the many elements of this period.
The 2007–2009 recession
saw private consumption fall for the first time in nearly 20 years. This indicated the depth and severity of the recession. With consumer confidence so low, economic recovery took a long time. Consumers in the U.S. were hit hard by the Great Recession, with the value of their houses dropping and their pension savings decimated on the stock market.
U.S. employers shed 63,000 jobs in February 2008,
the most in five years. Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said on 6 April 2008 that "There is more than a 50 percent chance the United States could go into recession."
On 1 October, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that an additional 156,000 jobs had been lost in September. On 29 April 2008, Moody's
declared that nine US states were in a recession. In November 2008, employers eliminated 533,000 jobs, the largest single-month loss in 34 years.
In 2008, an estimated 2.6 million U.S. jobs were eliminated.
The unemployment rate
in the U.S. grew to 8.5 percent in March 2009,
and there were 5.1 million job losses by March 2009 since the recession began in December 2007.
That was about five million more people unemployed compared to just a year prior,
which was the largest annual jump in the number of unemployed persons since the 1940s.
Although the US Economy grew in the first quarter by 1%,
by June 2008 some analysts stated that due to a protracted credit crisis and "...rampant inflation in commodities such as oil, food, and steel", the country was nonetheless in a recession.
The third quarter of 2008 brought on a GDP retraction of 0.5%
the biggest decline since 2001. The 6.4% decline in spending during Q3 on non-durable goods, like clothing and food, was the largest since 1950.
A 17 November 2008 report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia based on the survey of 51 forecasters, suggested that the recession started in April 2008 and would last 14 months.
They project real GDP declining at an annual rate of 2.9% in the fourth quarter and 1.1% in the first quarter of 2009. These forecasts represent significant downward revisions from the forecasts of three months ago.
A 1 December 2008 report from the National Bureau of Economic Research stated that the U.S. had been in a recession since December 2007 (when economic activity peaked), based on a number of measures including job losses, declines in personal income, and declines in real GDP.
By July 2009 a growing number of economists believed that the recession may have ended.
The National Bureau of Economic Research announced on 20 September 2010 that the 2008/2009 recession ended in June 2009, making it the longest recession since World War II.
Prior to the start of the recession, it appears that no known formal theoretical or empirical model was able to accurately predict the advance of this recession, except for minor signals in the sudden rise of forecasted probabilities, which were still well under 50%.
- ^ "Recession". Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary. Retrieved 19 November 2008.
- ^ "Recession definition". Encarta World English Dictionary [North American Edition]. Microsoft Corporation. 2007. Archived from the original on 28 March 2009. Retrieved 19 November 2008.
- ^ "The NBER's Recession Dating Procedure". www.nber.org.
- ^ a b "Q&A: What is a recession?". BBC News. 8 July 2008.
- ^ a b "Glossary of Treasury terms". HM Treasury. Archived from the original on 2 November 2012. Retrieved 25 October 2012.
- ^ Shiskin, Julius (1 December 1974). "The Changing Business Cycle". The New York Times. Retrieved 12 March 2020.
- ^ a b "What is the difference between a recession and a depression?" Saul Eslake Nov 2008
- ^ a b "Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions". National Bureau of Economic Research. Archived from the original on 5 March 2020. Retrieved 20 March 2020.
- ^ a b Koo, Richard (2009). The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics-Lessons from Japan's Great Recession. John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte. Ltd. ISBN 978-0-470-82494-8.
- ^ a b Koo, Richard. "The world in balance sheet recession: causes, cure, and politics" (PDF). real-world economics review, issue no. 58, 12 December 2011, pp. 19–37. Retrieved 15 April 2012.
- ^ "Key Indicators 2001: Growth and Change in Asia and the Pacific". ADB.org. Archived from the original on 17 March 2010. Retrieved 31 July 2010.
- ^ Samuelson, Robert J. (14 June 2010). "Our economy's crisis of confidence". The Washington Post. Retrieved 29 January 2011.
- ^ "The Conference Board – Consumer Confidence Survey Press Release – May 2010". Conference-board.org. 25 March 2010. Retrieved 29 January 2011.
- ^ Shiller, Robert J. (27 January 2009). "WSJ – Robert Shiller – Animal Spirits Depend on Trust". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 29 January 2011.
- ^ Krugman, Paul. "Does He Pass the Test?". Retrieved 26 November 2018.
- ^ Gregory White (14 April 2010). "Presentation by Richard Koo – The Age of Balance Sheet Recessions". Businessinsider.com. Retrieved 29 January 2011.
- ^ "Richard Koo – The World In Balance Sheet Recession – Real World Economics Review – December 2011" (PDF). Retrieved 26 November 2018.
- ^ "Notes On Koo (Wonkish)". Retrieved 26 November 2018.
- ^ Krugman, Paul (18 November 2010). "Debt, deleveraging, and the liquidity trap". Retrieved 26 November 2018.
- ^ "Grim Natural Experiments". Retrieved 26 November 2018.
- ^ "New Report: A Literature Summary on New Balance-Sheet Recession Research". Next New Deal. Archived from the original on October 16, 2015.
- ^ Krugman, Paul (2009). The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008. W.W. Norton Company Limited. ISBN 978-0-393-07101-6.
- ^ "How Much of the World is in a Liquidity Trap?". Krugman.blogs.nytimes.com. 17 March 2010. Retrieved 29 January 2011.
- ^ a b "A Minsky Meltdown: Lessons for Central Bankers". Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- ^ Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Consumer Confidence: A Useful Indicator of . . . the Labor Market? Jason Bram, Robert Rich, and Joshua Abel ... Conference Board’s Present Situation Index This article incorporates text from this source, which is in the public domain.
- ^ "Wall Street starts 2017 with tailwind | By Juergen Buettner | January 4, 2017 | Chart 1: Consumer Confidence Index and Historically Shocks". Archived from the original on April 28, 2020. Retrieved February 14, 2020.
- ^ Consumer Confidence Drops -- Why Does It Matter? Forbes. Jun 27, 2019. Brad McMillan.
- ^ Yahoo News | Gundlach: We don't see a recession on the horizon | February 13, 2019
- ^ Seeking Alpha | Take Me To Your Leader: Analyzing The Latest Leading Indicators | by -1.9% | Sep. 24, 2019[permanent dead link]
- ^ Background on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index | Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago | September 19, 2019
- ^ A Estrella, FS Mishkin (1995). "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators" (PDF). Review of Economics and Statistics. MIT Press. 80: 45–61. doi:10.1162/003465398557320. S2CID 11641969.
- ^ A “Big Data” View of the U.S. Economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes | By Scott A. Brave , Ross Cole , David Kelley
- ^ Weekly Economic Index (Lewis-Mertens-Stock)
- ^ The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis | Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
- ^ Investor Jeffrey Ulatan Indicates 2020 Recession Signals
- ^ Grading Bonds on Inverted Curve By Michael Hudson
- ^ Wright, Jonathan H., The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions (March 2006). FEDs Working Paper No. 2006-7.
- ^ "The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator". www.newyorkfed.org. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK. 2020.
- ^ a b Park, B.U., Simar, L. & Zelenyuk, V. (2020) "Forecasting of recessions via dynamic probit for time series: replication and extension of Kauppi and Saikkonen (2008)". Empirical Economics 58, 379–392. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-019-01708-2
- ^  Using the U.S. Treasury Yield Curve to predict S&P 500 returns and U.S. recessions | Theodore Gregory Hanks | Pennsylvania State University, Schreyer Honors College Department of Finance | Spring 2012
- ^ "Labor Model Predicts Lower Recession Odds". The Wall Street Journal. 28 January 2008. Retrieved 29 January 2011.
- ^ Sahm, Claudia (2019-05-06). "Direct Stimulus Payments to Individuals" (PDF). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
- ^ Lihn, Stephen H. T. (2019-08-10). "Real-time Recession Probability with Hidden Markov Model and Unemployment Momentum". Rochester, NY. doi:10.2139/ssrn.3435667. S2CID 214619854. SSRN 3435667.
- ^ Leading Economic Indicators Suggest U.S. In Recession 21 January 2008
- ^ "Income and wealth inequality make recessions worse, research reveals". phys.org. 2016.
- ^ Neves, Pedro Cunha; Afonso, Óscar; Silva, Sandra Tavares (February 2016). "A Meta-Analytic Reassessment of the Effects of Inequality on Growth". World Development. 78: 386–400. doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2015.10.038.
- ^ Raice, Shayndi. "An Economic Warning Sign: RV Shipments Are Slipping". WSJ.
- ^ "The 'bloodbath' in America's trucking industry has officially spilled over to the rest of the economy".
- ^ Cass Freight Index Report, August 2019
- ^ "Grim Stock Signals Piling Up as Wall Street Mulls Recession Odds". www.bloomberg.com. Retrieved 26 November 2018.
- ^  JPMorgan | The US Economic Outlook | Feb. 2020 | Page 22]
- ^  Graystone Consulting, Morgan Stanley | 2nd Quarter 2020 Investment Outlook | Page 34 | As of March 31, 2020]
- ^ Krugman, Paul. "Opinion – Block Those Economic Metaphors". Retrieved 26 November 2018.
- ^ Anatomy of the Financial Crisis: Between Keynes and Schumpeter. Economic and Political Weekly, 44
- ^ Siegel, Jeremy J. (2002). Stocks for the Long Run: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and Long-Term Investment Strategies, 3rd, New York: McGraw-Hill, 388. ISBN 978-0-07-137048-6
- ^ "From the subprime to the terrigenous: Recession begins at home". Land Values Research Group. 2 June 2009. A downturn in the property market, especially in turnover (sales) of properties, is a leading indicator of recession, with a lead time of up to 9 quarters...
- ^ Robert J. Shiller (6 June 2009). "Why Home Prices May Keep Falling". The New York Times. Retrieved 10 April 2010.
- ^ Allan Sloan (11 December 2007). "Recession Predictions and Investment Decisions".
- ^ Shawn Tully (6 February 2008). "Recession? Where to put your money now".
- ^ "Which investments are the best during a recession". Currency.com. March 13, 2020.
- ^ Rethinking Recession-Proof Stocks Joshua Lipton 28 January 2008
- ^ Douglas Cohen (18 January 2008). "Recession Stock Picks".
- ^ Gaffen, David (11 November 2008). "Recession Puts Halfway Rule to the Test". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 29 January 2011.
- ^ "Economy puts Republicans at risk". BBC. 29 January 2008.
- ^ The Bush Recession Archived 2011-02-04 at the Wayback Machine Prepared by: Democratic staff, Senate Budget Committee, 31 July 2003
- ^ George J. Church (23 November 1981). "Ready for a Real Downer". Time.
- ^ Unemployment Rate p. 1. The Saylor Foundation. Accessed 20 June 2012.
- ^ US in Recession Rising Unemployment Market Oracle. John Mauldin Feb 2009
- ^ a b c Vaitilingam, Romesh (17 September 2009). "Recession Britain: New ESRC report on the impact of recession on people's jobs, businesses and daily lives". Economic and Social Research Council. Archived from the original on 2 January 2010. Retrieved 22 January 2010.
- ^ Rampell, Catherine (11 January 2011). "More Workers Complain of Bias on the Job, a Trend Linked to Widespread Layoffs". The New York Times.
- ^ a b The Recession that Almost Was. Kenneth Rogoff, International Monetary Fund, Financial Times, 5 April 2002
- ^ "The world economy Bad, or worse". Economist.com. 2008-10-09. Retrieved 2009-04-15.
- ^ Lall, Subir. International Monetary Fund, April 9, 2008. IMF Predicts Slower World Growth Amid Serious Market Crisis
- ^ a b c d e Global Economic Slump Challenges Policies IMF. January 2009.
- ^ a b c "Global Recession Risk Grows as U.S. 'Damage' Spreads. Jan 2008". Bloomberg.com. 2008-01-28. Archived from the original on March 21, 2010. Retrieved 2009-04-15.
- ^ "World Economic Outlook (WEO) April 2013: Statistical appendix – Table A1 – Summary of World Output" (PDF). IMF. 16 April 2013. Retrieved 16 April 2013.
- ^ a b Davis, Bob (22 April 2009). "What's a Global Recession?". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 17 September 2013.
- ^ a b "World Economic Outlook – April 2009: Crisis and Recovery" (PDF). Box 1.1 (pp. 11–14). IMF. 24 April 2009. Retrieved 17 September 2013.
- ^ Australian Economic Indicators, Australian Bureau of Statistics, 27 February 1998
- ^ Reasons for 1990s Recession, Melbourne: The Age, 2 December 2006
- ^ Australian Recession, Australian Broadcasting Corporation - Michael Janda, 3 June 2020
- ^ a b "Percent change from preceding period". U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Archived from the original on 14 August 2018. Retrieved 26 November 2018.
- ^ Isidore, Chris (1 December 2008). "It's official: Recession since Dec. '07". CNN. Retrieved 29 January 2011.
- ^ "BBC News – Business – US economy out of recession". BBC. 29 October 2009. Retrieved 6 February 2010.
- ^ "Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity" (PDF). NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee. 11 December 2008. Retrieved 26 April 2009.
- ^ Izzo, Phil (20 September 2010). "Recession Over in June 2009". The Wall Street Journal.
- ^ Economic Crisis: When will it End? IBISWorld Recession Briefing " Archived 2011-05-14 at the Wayback Machine Dr. Richard J. Buczynski and Michael Bright, IBISWorld, January 2009
- ^ Andrews, Edmund L. (7 March 2008). "Employment Falls for Second Month". The New York Times. Retrieved 10 March 2020.
- ^ Recession unlikely if US economy gets through next two crucial months Archived August 12, 2011, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Uchitelle, Louis; Andrews, Edmund L.; Labaton, Stephen (6 December 2008). "U.S. Loses 533,000 Jobs in Biggest Drop Since 1974". The New York Times. Retrieved 10 April 2010.
- ^ Uchitelle, Louis (9 January 2009). "U.S. lost 2.6 million jobs in 2008". The New York Times. Retrieved 10 March 2020.
- ^ Unemployment rate in March 2009 6 April 2009. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Retrieved 10 March 2020.
- ^ 2 million jobs lost so far in '09 CNN/Money. 3 April 2009. Retrieved 10 March 2020.
- ^ "Employment Situation Summary". Bls.gov. 2 July 2010. Retrieved 31 July 2010.
- ^ Goldman, David (9 January 2009). "Worst year for jobs since '45". CNN. Retrieved 10 April 2010.
- ^ Brent Meyer (16 October 2008). "Real GDP First-Quarter 2008 Preliminary Estimate :: Brent Meyer :: Economic Trends :: 06.03.08 :: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland". Clevelandfed.org. Archived from the original on 5 October 2008. Retrieved 29 January 2011.
- ^ "Fragile economy improves but not out of woods yet". finance.yahoo.com. Archived from the original on July 7, 2008.
- ^ Why it's worse than you think, 16 June 2008, Newsweek.
- ^ "Gross Domestic Product: Third quarter 2008". Bea.gov. Retrieved 29 January 2011.
- ^ Chandra, Shobhana (30 October 2008). "U.S. Economy Contracts Most Since the 2001 Recession". Bloomberg. Retrieved 29 January 2011.
- ^ "Fourth quarter 2008 Survey of Professional Forecasters". Philadelphiafed.org. 17 November 2008. Retrieved 29 January 2011.
- ^ "Text of the NBER's statement on the recession". USA Today. 1 December 2008. Retrieved 29 January 2011.
- ^ Daniel Gross, The Recession Is... Over?, Newsweek, 14 July 2009.
- ^ V.I. Keilis-Borok et al., Pattern of Macroeconomic Indicators Preceding the End of an American Economic Recession. Journal of Pattern Recognition Research, JPRR Vol.3 (1) 2008.
- ^ "Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research". www.nber.org. Retrieved 26 November 2018.
Last edited on 12 May 2021, at 13:59
Content is available under CC BY-SA 3.0
unless otherwise noted.