Arab Winter: Difference between revisions

The '''Arab Winter'''<ref name=telegraph>{{cite news|url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/9753123/Middle-East-review-of-2012-the-Arab-Winter.html |title=Middle East review of 2012: the Arab Winter |work=The Telegraph |access-date=July 19, 2014|date=2012-12-31 |last1=Spencer |first1=Richard }}</ref><ref>{{cite web|publisher=The Jerusalem Post |url=http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Analysis-Arab-Winter-is-coming-to-Baghdad-359348 |title=Analysis: Arab Winter is coming to Baghdad |work=The Telegraph |access-date=October 8, 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.cbn.com/cbnnews/us/2014/April/Expert-Warns-of-Americas-Coming-Arab-Winter/ |title=Expert Warns of America's Coming 'Arab Winter' |publisher=CBN |access-date=October 8, 2014|date=2014-09-08 }}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|url=http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-arab-winter |title=The Arab Winter|journal=The New Yorker |access-date=October 8, 2014|date=2011-12-28}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.spu.edu/about-spu/news/articles/2014/may/arab-spring |title=Arab Spring or Arab Winter?|work=The New Yorker |access-date=October 8, 2014}}</ref> is a term for the resurgence of [[authoritarianism]] and [[Islamic extremism]]<ref>{{cite web|author=Yun Ru Phua |url=http://bpr.berkeley.edu/2015/03/30/after-every-winter-comes-spring-tunisias-democratic-flowering/ |title=After Every Winter Comes Spring: Tunisia's Democratic Flowering – Berkeley Political Review |publisher=Bpr.berkeley.edu |access-date=2017-02-11}}</ref> evolving in the aftermath of the [[Arab Spring]] protests in [[Arab World|Arab countries]].<ref>Ahmed H Adam and Ashley D Robinson. ''Will the Arab Winter spring again in Sudan?''. Al-Jazeera. 11 June 2016. [http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/05/arab-winter-spring-sudan-160531082228922.html] "The Arab Spring that swept across the Middle East and succeeded in overthrowing three dictatorships in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya in 2011 was a pivotal point in the history of nations. Despite the subsequent descent into the "Arab Winter", the peaceful protests of young people were heroic..."</ref> The term "Arab Winter" refers to the events across [[Arab League]] countries in the Mid-Middle East and North Africa, including the [[Syrian Civilcivil Warwar]],<ref name="Fear and Faith in Paradise">{{cite book |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=__lUxmzAZ08C&pg=PA296 |title=Fear and Faith in Paradise|access-date=October 23, 2014|isbn=978-1-4422-1479-8|last1=Karber|first1=Phil|date=2012-06-18}}</ref><ref name="Arab Winter">{{cite web|url=http://americamagazine.org/issue/culture/arab-winter |title=Arab Winter|work=America Staging|access-date=October 23, 2014|date=2012-12-28}}</ref> the [[Iraqi insurgency (2011–142011–2013)|Iraqi insurgency]] and the subsequent [[War in Iraq (2013–2017)|subsequentWar warin Iraq]],<ref name="The Jerusalem Post">{{cite web|url=http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Analysis-Arab-Winter-is-coming-to-Baghdad-359348 |title=Analysis: Arab Winter is coming to Baghdad |work=The Jerusalem Post |access-date=October 23, 2014}}</ref> the [[Egyptian Crisis (2011–142011–2014)|Egyptian Crisis]],<ref name="euronews">{{cite web|date=2013-02-08|title=Egypt and Tunisia's new 'Arab winter'|url=http://www.euronews.com/2013/02/08/egypt-and-tunisia-s-new-arab-winter/|access-date=October 23, 2014|work=Euro news}}</ref> the [[First Libyan CrisisCivil War]] and the subsequent [[Second (2011–present)|Libyan CrisisCivil War]], and the [[Yemeni CrisisCivil War (2011–present2014–present)|CrisisYemeni inCivil YemenWar]].<ref name="Yemen’s Arab winter">{{cite web|title=Yemen's Arab winter|url=http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/yemen-s-arab-winter-1470341500|access-date=October 23, 2014|work=Middle East Eye}}</ref> Events referred to as the Arab Winter include those in [[Egypt]] that led to the removal of [[Mohamed Morsi]] and the seizure of power by General [[Abdel Fattah el-Sisi]] in anthe anti-[[Muslim2013 BrotherhoodEgyptian coup d'état]] campaign.<ref name="euronews.com">{{Citation |title=Egypt & Tunisia's new Arab winter |newspaper=Euro news |date=February 8, 2013 |url=http://www.euronews.com/2013/02/08/egypt-and-tunisia-s-new-arab-winter/}}</ref>

According to scholars of the [[University of Warsaw]], the Arab Spring fully devolved into the Arab Winter four years after its onset, in 2014.<ref name="auto">Radoslaw Fiedler, Przemyslaw Osiewicz. ''Transformation processes in Egypt after 2011''. 2015. p182.</ref> The Arab Winter is characterized by the emergence of multiple regional [[civil warWar|wars]]s, mounting regional instability,<ref>{{cite web|url=http://theconversation.com/from-egypt-to-syria-this-could-be-the-start-of-the-arab-winter-17335 |title=From Egypt to Syria, this could be the start of the Arab Winter|date=April 17, 2014|work=The Conversation |access-date=October 23, 2014}}</ref> economic and demographic decline of [[Arab world|Arab countries]],<ref name=rivlin /> and ethno-religious sectarian strife.<ref>{{Citation |last=Malmvig |first=Lassen |title=Arab uprisings: regional implication |publisher=IEMED |year=2013 |url=http://www.iemed.org/observatori/arees-danalisi/arxius-adjunts/anuari/iemed-2013/Malmvig%20Lassen%20Arab%20Uprisings%20Regional%20Implications%20EN.pdf}}</ref> According to a study by the [[American University of Beirut]], by the summer of 2014, the Arab Winter had resulted in nearly a quarter of a million deaths and millions of refugees.<ref name="auto1">{{Citation |title=Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa – between the Arab Winter and the Arab Spring |journal=International Affairs |date=August 28, 2013 |place=LB |url=http://www.aub.edu.lb/ifi/international_affairs/Documents/working_paper_series/20130828_IA_WP_AUB_Paper_on_Displacement_in_Arab_Spring.pdf |access-date=October 18, 2014 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141018201147/http://www.aub.edu.lb/ifi/international_affairs/Documents/working_paper_series/20130828_IA_WP_AUB_Paper_on_Displacement_in_Arab_Spring.pdf |archive-date=October 18, 2014 |url-status=dead }}</ref> Perhaps the most significant event in the Arab Winter was the rise of the extremist group [[Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant]], which controlled large swathes of land in the region from 2014 to 2019.<ref>{{Cite web | url=https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Analysis-Arab-Winter-is-coming-to-Baghdad-359348 | title=Analysis: Arab Winter is coming to Baghdad - Middle East - Jerusalem Post}}</ref> to 2019.

In 2021, multiple armed conflicts are still continuing that might be seen as a result of the Arab Spring. The [[Syrian Civilcivil Warwar]] has caused massive political instability and economic hardship in Syria, with the Syrian currency plunging to new lows.<ref name="Guardian 6-12-2020"> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/12/us-caesar-act-sanctions-and-could-devastate-syrias-flatlining-economy US ‘Caesar Act' sanctions could devastate Syria’s flatlining economy. Critics say legislation is being used for US strategy and could cause further problems for country and wider region. Martin Chulov, The Guardian, June 12, 2020. </ref> In Libya, a major[[Second Libyan Civil War|civil war]] iswas ongoingraging until 2020, with Western powers, Turkey, Gulf Arab monarchies and Russia sending in proxy fightersintervening.<ref> [https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/libya-war-haftar-tripoli-russia-putin-us-turkey-a9557136.html Libya has a chance at peace but Russia and the US are in the way Haftar seems to be on his way out, while Turkey risks creating a new Afghanistan on Europe’s southern flank], by Ahmed Aboudouh, June 9, 2020. Russia’s ally, General Khalifa Haftar, commander of the self-proclaimed National Libyan Army, has lost his 14-month military campaign to capture the capital Tripoli. His rivals in the Government of National Accord (GNA) forces, backed by -extremist militias, managed to chase his troops deep into the east of the country. </ref><ref> [https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/libya-war-tripoli-haftar-russia-turkey-gna-a9554976.html Danger of ‘miscalculation’ as global powers scramble for position in Libya. Fighting moves from west to centre and south of country, as Egypt advances towards border, and Tripoli ignores truce calls.Borzou Daragahi, Oliver Carroll. June 8, 2020, [[The Independent]]. </ref>

The term "Arab Winter" refers to the events across [[Arab League]] countries in the Mid-Middle East and North Africa, including the [[Syrian Civilcivil Warwar]],<ref name="Fear and Faith in Paradise" /><ref name="Arab Winter" /> the [[Iraqi insurgency (2011–2013)|Iraqi insurgency]] and the subsequent [[War in Iraq (2013–2017)|followingWar warin Iraq]],<ref name="The Jerusalem Post" /> the [[Egyptian Crisis (2011–142011–2014)|Egyptian Crisis]],<ref name="euronews>{{cite" web |url=http://www.euronews.com/2013/02/08/egypt-and-tunisia-s-new-arab-winter/> |title=Egyptthe and[[First Tunisia'sLibyan newCivil 'ArabWar]] winter'and |work=Eurothe news |access-date=October 23, 2014|date=2013-02-08 }}</ref> thesubsequent [[Second Libyan CrisisCivil (2011–present)|Libyan CrisisWar]], and the [[Yemeni CrisisCivil War (2011–present2014–present)|CrisisYemeni inCivil YemenWar]].<ref name="Yemen’s Arab winter">{{cite web|url=http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/yemen-s-arab-winter-1470341500 |title=Yemen's Arab winter|work=Middle East Eye |access-date=October 23, 2014}}</ref> Events referred to as the Arab Winter include those in [[Egypt]] that led to the removal of [[Mohamed Morsi]] and the seizure of power by General [[Abdel Fattah el-Sisi]] in anthe anti-[[Muslim2013 Brotherhood]] militaryEgyptian coup d'état]].<ref name="euronews.com" /> Political developments, particularly the restoration of authoritarianism and suppression of [[civil liberties]] in Egypt since [[2013 Egyptian coup d'état|July 3, 2013]], have been described as constituting a "military winter" that functioned in opposition to the goals of the Arab Spring.<ref>{{cite journal|url=http://www.thenation.com/article/175121/coup-egypt-arab-winter |title=The Coup in Egypt: An Arab Winter?|journal=The Nation|date=July 5, 2013|access-date=November 1, 2014|last1=Hayden|first1=Tom}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|publisher=The Huffington Post |url=http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/01/21/egypt-arab-spring_n_4568523.html |title=In Egypt, Arab Spring Gives Way To Military Winter|work=The World Post|date=January 21, 2014 |access-date=November 1, 2014|last1=Jones |first1=Sophia }}</ref> Various militias and tribes have started fighting in Libya after a breakdown in negotiations.<ref name=Yom /> The [[Syrian Civil War spillover in Lebanon|arenas of Lebanon]] and [[Bahraini uprising of 2011|Bahrain]] were also identified as areas of the Arab Winter.<ref name=rivlin /> [[Libya]] was named as a scene of the Arab Winter, together with [[Syria]], by Professor Sean Yom.<ref name=Yom>{{cite web|title=Lecture Explores Past and Future Arab Spring |date=October 10, 2014 |url=http://daily.swarthmore.edu/2014/10/10/lecture-explores-past-and-future-arab-spring/ |work=The Daily Gazette |access-date=October 19, 2014}}</ref> The [[Northern Mali conflict]] was often described as part of the "[[Islamism|Islamist]] Winter".<ref>"In Mali AQ achieved to infiltrate and take over [[Tuareg rebellion (2012)|Tuareg insurgency]]. If AQ succeeds to keep the Arab Spring countries destabilized, this will lead to a viral reproduction of [[Azawad]] scenario. AQ is the "Islamic Winter"." [http://securityobserver.org/the-role-of-al-qaeda-in-mali-a-lesson-for-arab-spring-future/]</ref> Political changes which occurred in [[Tunisia]], involving a change in government, as well as an [[ISIL insurgency in Tunisia|ISIL insurgency]], were also indicated by some as a possible "heading towards Arab Winter".<ref name="euronews.com" />{{clarify|date=September 2015}}