Demographic trap: Difference between revisions

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The term '''demographic trap''' applies to a country whose population is growing rapidly due to a high [[birth rate]] and low [[death rate]]. This usually happens when a [[developing country]] moves through the [[demographic transition]] of becoming developed. During the [[Demographic transition#Stage ThreeTwo|3rd2nd stage]] of demographic transition (called the late transition stage), quality of health care has improved enough that death rates fall into the "accepted" range, which is usually well below 10 per 1000 people. However, birth rates remain high, and the country becomes "trapped" in a "self-perpetuatingreinforcing cycle."<ref name=Kaufman>Kaufman, Donald G. ''Biosphere 2000: Protecting Our Global Environment'', Kendall Hunt (2000) p. 157</ref>
{{Unreferenced|date=December 2009}}
The term '''demographic trap''' applies to a country whose population is growing rapidly due to a high [[birth rate]] and low [[death rate]]. This usually happens when a [[developing country]] moves through the [[demographic transition]] of becoming developed. During the [[Demographic transition#Stage Three|3rd stage]] of demographic transition (called the late transition stage), quality of health care has improved enough that death rates fall into the "accepted" range, which is usually well below 10 per 1000 people. However, birth rates remain high, and the country becomes "trapped" in a self-perpetuating cycle.
 
Industrial nations are in stage 3 or 4 of this "demographic transition." Examples of developing nations that successfully went from stage 2 to stage 3 are [[South Korea]] and [[Taiwan]], which were able to move toward smaller families, and thereby improved living standards. This resulted in further reduction in fertility rates.
The country's [[economic growth]] from the transition stage ends up being used to support the needs of the exploding population instead of economic and social development. As a result, the country cannot proceed to the final stage, post-transition, and remains in the 3rd stage. What may happen instead, as predicted indirectly by [[Thomas Malthus]], is a [[Malthusian catastrophe|Malthusian collapse]], in which famine and disease ravage the country's population, lowering numbers dramatically.
 
However, most developing countries today are "stalled in stage 2," according to demographer Donald G. Kaufman, what he calls a "demographic trap." This situation occurs, he states, "when falling living standards reinforce the prevailing high fertility, which in turn reinforces the decline in living standards."<ref name=Kaufman/> This results in more poverty, where people rely on more children to provide them with economic security.
 
One of the significant outcomes of the "demographic trap" is that the high birth rates in those countries leads to "explosive population growth." This is seen throughout Asia, Africa and Latin America, where death rates have dropped during the last half of the 20th century due to advanced health care. However, in subsequent decades most of those countries were unable to keep improving economic development to match their population's growth: by filling the education needs for more school age children; creating more jobs for the expanding workforce; and providing basic infrastructure and services, such as sewage, roads, bridges, water supplies, electricity, and stable food supplies.<ref name=Kaufman/>
 
==Notes==
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==Examples==