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The '''Arab Winter'''<ref name=telegraph>{{cite news|url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/9753123/Middle-East-review-of-2012-the-Arab-Winter.html |title=Middle East review of 2012: the Arab Winter |work=The Telegraph |accessdate=July 19, 2014|date=2012-12-31 |last1=Spencer |first1=Richard }}</ref><ref>{{cite web|publisher=The Jerusalem Post |url=http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Analysis-Arab-Winter-is-coming-to-Baghdad-359348 |title=Analysis: Arab Winter is coming to Baghdad |work=The Telegraph |accessdate=October 8, 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.cbn.com/cbnnews/us/2014/April/Expert-Warns-of-Americas-Coming-Arab-Winter/ |title=Expert Warns of America's Coming 'Arab Winter' |publisher=CBN |accessdate=October 8, 2014|date=2014-09-08 }}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|url=http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-arab-winter |title=The Arab Winter|journal=The New Yorker |accessdate=October 8, 2014|date=2011-12-28}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.spu.edu/about-spu/news/articles/2014/may/arab-spring |title=Arab Spring or Arab Winter?|work=The New Yorker |accessdate=October 8, 2014}}</ref> is a term for the resurgence of [[authoritarianism]], [[absolute monarchies]] and [[Islamic extremism]]<ref>{{cite web|author=Yun Ru Phua |url=http://bpr.berkeley.edu/2015/03/30/after-every-winter-comes-spring-tunisias-democratic-flowering/ |title=After Every Winter Comes Spring: Tunisia's Democratic Flowering – Berkeley Political Review |publisher=Bpr.berkeley.edu |date=|accessdate=2017-02-11}}</ref> evolving in the aftermath of the [[Arab Spring]] protests in [[Arab World|Arab countries]].<ref>Ahmed H Adam and Ashley D Robinson. ''Will the Arab Winter spring again in Sudan?''. Al-Jazeera. 11 June 2016. [http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/05/arab-winter-spring-sudan-160531082228922.html] "The Arab Spring that swept across the Middle East and succeeded in overthrowing three dictatorships in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya in 2011 was a pivotal point in the history of nations. Despite the subsequent descent into the "Arab Winter", the peaceful protests of young people were heroic..."</ref> The term "Arab Winter" refers to the events across [[Arab League]] countries in the Mid-East and North Africa, including the [[Syrian Civil War]],<ref name="Fear and Faith in Paradise">{{cite book |url=https://books.google.com./books?id=__lUxmzAZ08C&pg=PA296 |title=Fear and Faith in Paradise|accessdate=October 23, 2014|isbn=978-1-4422-1479-8|last1=Karber|first1=Phil|date=2012-06-18}}</ref><ref name="Arab Winter">{{cite web|url=http://americamagazine.org/issue/culture/arab-winter |title=Arab Winter|work=America Staging|accessdate=October 23, 2014|date=2012-12-28}}</ref> the [[Iraqi insurgency (2011–14)|Iraqi insurgency]] and the [[Iraqi Civil War (2014–2017)|following civil war]],<ref name="The Jerusalem Post">{{cite web|url=http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Analysis-Arab-Winter-is-coming-to-Baghdad-359348 |title=Analysis: Arab Winter is coming to Baghdad |work=The Jerusalem Post |accessdate=October 23, 2014}}</ref> the [[Egyptian Crisis (2011–14)|Egyptian Crisis]],<ref name="euronews" /> the [[Libyan Crisis (2011–present)|Libyan Crisis]] and the [[Yemeni Crisis (2011–present)|Crisis in Yemen]].<ref name="Yemen’s Arab winter" /> Events referred to as the Arab Winter include those in [[Egypt]] that led to the removal of [[Mohamed Morsi]] and the seizure of power by General [[Abdel Fattah el-Sisi]] in an anti-[[Muslim Brotherhood]] campaign.<ref name="euronews.com">{{Citation |title=Egypt & Tunisia's new Arab winter |newspaper=Euro news |date=February 8, 2013 |url=http://www.euronews.com/2013/02/08/egypt-and-tunisia-s-new-arab-winter/}}</ref>
 
According to scholars of the [[University of Warsaw]], the Arab Spring fully devolved into the Arab Winter four years after its onset, in 2014.<ref name="auto">Radoslaw Fiedler, Przemyslaw Osiewicz. ''Transformation processes in Egypt after 2011''. 2015. p182.</ref> The Arab Winter is characterized by the emergence of multiple regional [[civil war]]s, mounting regional instability,<ref>{{cite web|url=http://theconversation.com/from-egypt-to-syria-this-could-be-the-start-of-the-arab-winter-17335 |title=From Egypt to Syria, this could be the start of the Arab Winter|date=April 17, 2014|work=The Conversation |accessdate=October 23, 2014}}</ref> economic and demographic decline of [[Arab world|Arab countries]],<ref name=rivlin /> and ethno-religious sectarian strife.<ref>{{Citation |last=Malmvig |first=Lassen |title=Arab uprisings: regional implication |publisher=IEMED |year=2013 |url=http://www.iemed.org/observatori/arees-danalisi/arxius-adjunts/anuari/iemed-2013/Malmvig%20Lassen%20Arab%20Uprisings%20Regional%20Implications%20EN.pdf}}</ref> According to a study by the [[American University of Beirut]], by the summer of 2014, the Arab Winter had resulted in nearly a quarter of a million deaths and millions of refugees.<ref name="auto1">{{Citation |title=Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa – between the Arab Winter and the Arab Spring |journal=International Affairs |date=August 28, 2013 |place=LB |url=http://www.aub.edu.lb/ifi/international_affairs/Documents/working_paper_series/20130828_IA_WP_AUB_Paper_on_Displacement_in_Arab_Spring.pdf |access-date=October 18, 2014 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141018201147/http://www.aub.edu.lb/ifi/international_affairs/Documents/working_paper_series/20130828_IA_WP_AUB_Paper_on_Displacement_in_Arab_Spring.pdf |archive-date=October 18, 2014 |url-status=dead }}</ref> Perhaps the most significant event in the Arab Winter was the rise of the extremist group [[Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant]], which controlled large swathes of land in the region from 2014<ref>{{Cite web | url=https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Analysis-Arab-Winter-is-coming-to-Baghdad-359348 | title=Analysis: Arab Winter is coming to Baghdad - Middle East - Jerusalem Post}}</ref> to 2019.
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==Definition==
===Geography===
The term "Arab Winter" refers to the events across [[Arab League]] countries in the Mid-East and North Africa, including the [[Syrian Civil War]],<ref name="Fear and Faith in Paradise" /><ref name="Arab Winter"/> the [[Iraqi insurgency (2011–2013)|Iraqi insurgency]] and the [[Iraqi Civil War (2014–2017)|following civil war]],<ref name="The Jerusalem Post" /> the [[Egyptian Crisis (2011–14)|Egyptian Crisis]],<ref name=euronews>{{cite web |url=http://www.euronews.com/2013/02/08/egypt-and-tunisia-s-new-arab-winter/ |title=Egypt and Tunisia's new 'Arab winter' |work=Euro news |accessdate=October 23, 2014|date=2013-02-08 }}</ref> the [[Libyan Crisis (2011–present)|Libyan Crisis]] and the [[Yemeni Crisis (2011–present)|Crisis in Yemen]].<ref name="Yemen’s Arab winter">{{cite web|url=http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/yemen-s-arab-winter-1470341500 |title=Yemen's Arab winter|work=Middle East Eye |accessdate=October 23, 2014}}</ref> Events referred to as the Arab Winter include those in [[Egypt]] that led to the removal of [[Mohamed Morsi]] and the seizure of power by General [[Abdel Fattah el-Sisi]] in an anti-[[Muslim Brotherhood]] military coup.<ref name="euronews.com" /> Political developments, particularly the restoration of authoritarianism and suppression of [[civil liberties]] in Egypt since [[2013 Egyptian coup d'état|July 3, 2013]], have been described as constituting a "military winter" that functioned in opposition to the goals of the Arab Spring.<ref>{{cite journal|url=http://www.thenation.com/article/175121/coup-egypt-arab-winter |title=The Coup in Egypt: An Arab Winter?|journal=The Nation|date=July 5, 2013|accessdate=November 1, 2014|last1=Hayden|first1=Tom}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|publisher=The Huffington Post |url=http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/01/21/egypt-arab-spring_n_4568523.html |title=In Egypt, Arab Spring Gives Way To Military Winter|work=The World Post|date=January 21, 2014 |accessdate=November 1, 2014|last1=Jones |first1=Sophia }}</ref> Various militias and tribes have started fighting in Libya after a breakdown in negotiations.<ref name=Yom /> The [[Syrian Civil War spillover in Lebanon|arenas of Lebanon]] and [[Bahraini uprising of 2011|Bahrain]] were also identified as areas of the Arab Winter.<ref name=rivlin /> [[Libya]] was named as a scene of the Arab Winter, together with [[Syria]], by Professor Sean Yom.<ref name=Yom>{{cite web|title=Lecture Explores Past and Future Arab Spring |date=October 10, 2014 |url=http://daily.swarthmore.edu/2014/10/10/lecture-explores-past-and-future-arab-spring/ |work=The Daily Gazette |accessdate=October 19, 2014}}</ref> The [[Northern Mali conflict]] was often described as part of the "[[Islamism|Islamist]] Winter".<ref>"In Mali AQ achieved to infiltrate and take over [[Tuareg rebellion (2012)|Tuareg insurgency]]. If AQ succeeds to keep the Arab Spring countries destabilized, this will lead to a viral reproduction of [[Azawad]] scenario. AQ is the "Islamic Winter"." [http://securityobserver.org/the-role-of-al-qaeda-in-mali-a-lesson-for-arab-spring-future/]</ref> Political changes which occurred in [[Tunisia]], involving a change in government, as well as an [[ISIL insurgency in Tunisia|ISIL insurgency]], were also indicated by some as a possible "heading towards Arab Winter".<ref name="euronews.com" />{{clarify|date=September 2015}}
 
The term was first coined by Chinese professor [[Zhang Weiwei (professor)|Zhang Weiwei]] during a debate with [[Francis Fukuyama]] in June 2011. Fukuyama believed the [[Arab Spring]] movement would inevitably spread to China,<ref>{{cite web|author=张维为|title=观天下讲坛{{!}} 张维为:话语自信——回望六年前与福山的那场辩论 |url=https://www.guancha.cn/ZhangWeiWei/2017_06_13_412940_s.shtml |website=www.guancha.cn |language=zh-cmn-Hans}}</ref> while Zhang predicted, "My understanding of the [[Middle East]] leads me to conclude that the [[western world|West]] should not be too happy. It will bring enormous problems to [[America]]n interest. It is called 'Arab Spring' for now, and I guess it will soon turn to be the 'winter' for the Middle East."<ref>{{cite web|title=谁的终结?——福山与张维为对话"中国模式"-张维为、弗朗西斯·福山 |url=https://www.guancha.cn/ZhangWeiWei/2011_11_01_61959.shtml |website=guancha |accessdate=2 August 2018 |language=zh-cmn-Hans|quote=而且我自己对中东的了解使我得出这样的结论,西方千万不要太高兴,这会给美国的利益会带来很多的问题。现在叫中东的春天,我看不久就要变成中东的冬天。}}</ref>