Peak travel is a hypothetical point in time where global travelling activity will reach a peak and decline afterwards. It closely depends on the concept of peak oil and affects the total yearly mileage by car (peak car) but that of air travel and travel by ship as well.
References edit
- Zyga, Lisa (2011-01-03). "Have we reached peak travel?". Phys.org. Retrieved 2017-07-28.
Since the 1970s, passenger travel by vehicles and airplanes has grown rapidly in industrialized countries, and the International Energy Agency has predicted steady, though slower, travel growth until 2030 and beyond. However, a new study of eight industrialized countries has shown that passenger travel seems to have peaked in the early 2000s, just before the recent rise in fuel prices. The results suggest that demand for travel has reached a saturation point, which could mean that future projections of carbon dioxide emissions and fuel demand could be lower than previously thought
- Millard‐Ball, Adam; Schipper, Lee (2011). "Are We Reaching Peak Travel? Trends in Passenger Transport in Eight Industrialized Countries". Transport Reviews. 31 (3). Informa UK Limited: 357–378. doi:10.1080/01441647.2010.518291. ISSN 0144-1647. S2CID 154874425.
Projections of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions for industrialized countries typically show continued growth in vehicle ownership, vehicle use and overall travel demand. This growth represents a continuation of trends from the 1970s through the early 2000s. This paper presents a descriptive analysis of cross‐national passenger transport trends in eight industrialized countries, providing evidence to suggest that these trends may have halted. Through decomposing passenger transport energy use into activity, modal structure and modal energy intensity, we show that increases in total activity (passenger travel) have been the driving force behind increased energy use, offset somewhat by declining energy intensity. We show that total activity growth has halted relative to GDP in recent years in the eight countries examined. If these trends continue, it is possible that an accelerated decline in the energy intensity of car travel; stagnation in total travel per capita; some shifts back to rail and bus modes; and at least somewhat less carbon per unit of energy could leave the absolute levels of emissions in 2020 or 2030 lower than today.
- LeVine, Steve (2014-01-27). "The "peak travel" theory of US auto usage is hitting a few bumps in the road". Quartz. Retrieved 2017-07-28.
- Puentes, Robert (2013-02-28). "Have Americans Hit Peak Travel? A Discussion of the Changes in US Driving Habits". Brookings. Retrieved 2017-07-28.
- Moriarty, Patrick (2015-04-29). "Are we reaching 'peak travel'?". World Economic Forum. Retrieved 2017-07-28.
Reductions in per capita passenger travel in key OECD countries has already begun. In Australia, per capita surface travel (road, rail and sea travel) has fallen since 2006, while in the US, it is still below its 2008 value. In Japan, both total surface and air travel have been falling since 2000. A number of European countries are also experiencing "peak travel".
See also edit
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External links edit
- Phil Goodwin (2012). "Peak Travel, Peak Car and the Future of Mobility - Evidence, Unresolved Issues, Policy Implications, and a Research Agenda" (PDF). OECD.
- "Home - Car travel - Future of travel". Peak Car. 2015-02-04. Retrieved 2017-07-28.