Golden Globes 2021 winner predictions: EW picks who should and who will win

It's Hollywood's biggest party... kind of! We still don't know exactly what this year's Golden Globe Awards will look like, with Amy Poehler and Tina Fey returning to cohost (only this time from opposite coasts) for a socially distanced edition, but we feel a bit more confident making our guesses about the winners. As always, expect some telling Oscar previews, a few wild upsets, and a little bit of Ryan Murphy love.

Check out EW's predictions in the major movie and TV categories below, as well as our feelings on who should win. (This being the quirky Globes, there isn't always a ton of overlap.)

The Golden Globes air this Sunday at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT on NBC.

Film

Best Motion Picture — Drama
The Father
Mank
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Should and will win: Nomadland. The HFPA loves to anoint an Oscar front-runner, and they're clearly high on Nomadland, even handing it a Screenplay nod. Watch out for another favorite among these voters, though: Aaron Sorkin's talky, prescient Chicago 7. —David Canfield

Best Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Hamilton
Music
Palm Springs
The Prom

Should win: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Will win: Hamilton. This category's age-old tension: spectacle or laughs? If the latter, Sacha Baron Cohen's wild Borat sequel should fit the bill (and our critic Leah Greenblatt, picking our movie "shoulds," hopes as much), but Disney+'s Hamilton film may be just too rousing to deny. —David Canfield

Best Director for a Motion Picture
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
David Fincher, Mank
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloé Zhao, Nomadland

Should and will win: Chloé Zhao. Emerald Fennell's breakout drama has proved to be a…promising contender with surprise nods across the board, but support for Chloé Zhao will continue her steamroll through the precursors, enough for a win here. —Joey Nolfi

Best Actor in a Motion Picture — Drama
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian

Should and will win: Chadwick Boseman. The late Boseman is rightly the front-runner for his career-best turn in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. However, the HFPA wasn't crazy about the movie overall; Anthony Hopkins is a worthy challenger. —David Canfield

Best Actress in a Motion Picture — Drama
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Should and will win: Carey Mulligan. Promising Young Woman dressed Mulligan to kill, and she's poised to slay awards season with a mammoth swell of support fueling her bid. Her brilliant, beloved performance captures the fiery feminist sentiment of a cultural moment. Expect the HFPA to endorse the movement — and the excellence. —Joey Nolfi

Best Actor in a Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy
Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
James Corden, The Prom
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Dev Patel, The Personal History of David Copperfield
Andy Samberg, Palm Springs

Should and will win: Sacha Baron Cohen. In 2007, Baron Cohen won the award for the original Borat. In a scattered field of lower-profile (and, in James Corden's case, poorly received) work, he stands an excellent shot of taking the trophy again 14 years later. But don't rule out a Hamilton wave. —David Canfield

Best Actress in a Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Kate Hudson, Music
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot
Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma.

Should win: Anya Taylor-Joy
Will win: Maria Bakalova. Bakalova gives one of the best performances of the year in a widely seen digital blockbuster. Plus, the HFPA loves anointing future superstars, and Bakalova is poised to blow up. —Joey Nolfi

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Jared Leto, The Little Things
Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami

Should and will win: Daniel Kaluuya. Baron Cohen's got the biggest movie behind him, but he'll likely win for Borat; any voter who watches Judas and the Black Messiah will have a hard time not selecting the electric Daniel Kaluuya. —David Canfield

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Helena Zengel, News of the World

Should win: Helena Zengel
Will win: Olivia Colman. Fear the wrath of a Mamaw scorned, but we see another Colman-over-Close duel ending as it did at the Oscars in 2019; the HFPA adores the multi-Globe-winning Crown star. Helena Zengel holds her own with Tom Hanks, we should note, and deserves a look too. —Joey Nolfi

Best Screenplay for a Motion Picture
The Father, written by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
Mank, written by Jack Fincher
Nomadland, written by Chloé Zhao
Promising Young Woman, written by Emerald Fennell
The Trial of the Chicago 7, written by Aaron Sorkin

Will and should win: Promising Young Woman. The Globes can safely recognize Fennell's thematically rich work here, by lifting up the words that sparked Mulligan's fire. These are all Best Picture players, of course; another favorite may be quietly lurking. —Joey Nolfi

TV

Best Television Series — Drama
The Crown
Lovecraft Country
The Mandalorian
Ozark
Ratched

Should Win: The Crown
Will Win: Ratched. Trust this voting body to throw some curveballs. So, in a category with buzzy Ozark, überpopular The Mandalorian, timely Lovecraft Country, and maybe the finest year of The Crown yet, we're anticipating a Ratched upset. Is Ratched even, like, good? No. But it is (by default) Ryan Murphy's best Netflix drama, and the producer is a Globes favorite. —Darren Franich

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series — Drama
Olivia Colman, The Crown
Jodie Comer, Killing Eve
Emma Corrin, The Crown
Laura Linney, Ozark
Sarah Paulson, Ratched

Should win: Olivia Colman.
Will win: Emma Corrin. Colman has won three Globes in five years. So, despite her powerful final Crown year, another royal will seize the throne. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association loves a glamorous newcomer — and Emma Corrin's star turn as Diana is literally about glamorously newcoming. —Darren Franich

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series — Drama
Jason Bateman, Ozark
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Josh O'Connor, The Crown
Al Pacino, Hunters
Matthew Rhys, Perry Mason

Should win: Bob Odenkirk.
Will Win: Al Pacino. Jason Bateman, and Bob Odenkirk have already lost in this category twice and three times, respectively. Perry Mason wasn't flashy enough for the Globes. Josh O'Connor gave a bittersweet and moving performance as Prince Charles... but Al Pacino as a gruff and growly Nazi killer? The HFPA won't be able to resist. —Kristen Baldwin

Best Television Series — Musical or Comedy
Emily in Paris
The Flight Attendant
The Great
Schitt's Creek
Ted Lasso

Should and will win: Ted Lasso. The Globes love to put their stamp on a buzzy new comedy, which probably rules out Schitt's Creek, which swept the 2020 Emmys. And given that Apple TV+ has only one real shot at a major award from the HFPA this year, expect them to go all out with their campaign for Coach Lasso. —Kristen Baldwin

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series — Musical or Comedy
Catherine O'Hara, Schitt's Creek
Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant
Elle Fanning, The Great
Jane Levy, Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist
Lily Collins, Emily in Paris

Should and will win: Kaley Cuoco. Rather than replicating the Emmys' outpouring of love for Schitt's Creek, the Globes will look to anoint a new queen of comedy. Only Lily Collins has been nominated before (in 2017 for Rules Don't Apply) — but God willing, voters will just say non to Emily. Kaley Cuoco is masterfully madcap on The Flight Attendant, and she has the star power to push her over the edge. —Kristen Baldwin

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series — Musical or Comedy
Don Cheadle, Black Monday
Nicholas Hoult, The Great
Eugene Levy, Schitt's Creek
Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso
Ramy Youssef, Ramy

Should and will win: Jason Sudeikis. Can you believe this is Eugene Levy's first-ever Globes nomination? (The same can be said for his Creek costar O'Hara.) Still, this is Sudeikis' category to lose: His heartwarming, hilarious performance as an American optimist in London saved many a viewer's sanity in 2020. —Kristen Baldwin

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Gillian Anderson, The Crown
Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown
Cynthia Nixon, Ratched
Annie Murphy, Schitt's Creek
Julia Garner, Ozark

Should and will win: Gillian Anderson. Much like the Iron Lady herself, Anderson cannot and will not be denied. Her performance as Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher is about as visceral and authentic as it gets. Here's hoping the actress thanks her bouffant wig in her acceptance speech. —Kristen Baldwin

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
John Boyega, Small Axe
Donald Sutherland, The Undoing
Dan Levy, Schitt's Creek
Brendan Gleeson, The Comey Rule
Jim Parsons, Hollywood

Should and will win: John Boyega. It's almost not fair, since the actor is the full-fledged lead of "Red, White and Blue," his chapter of the Small Axe anthology. But his stunning turn as boundary-breaking Black police officer Leroy Logan is a marvel of controlled passions. Leroy is condemned by his racist colleagues and ostracized from a community that considers him a race traitor. It's a soulful performance that blends hope and fury. —Darren Franich

Best Television Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Normal People
Small Axe
The Queen's Gambit
The Undoing
Unorthodox

Should win: Small Axe.
Will win: The Queen's Gambit. Call it what you will — streaming cinema, anthology, "movie collection" — Steve McQueen's Small Axe is an astonishment of sociopolitical riches. But in a category packed with word-of-mouth sensations, the addictive Queen's Gambit should simultaneously checkmate all four opponents. —Darren Franich

Best Performance by an Actor in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Bryan Cranston, Your Honor
Jeff Daniels, The Comey Rule
Hugh Grant, The Undoing
Ethan Hawke, The Good Lord Bird
Mark Ruffalo, I Know This Much Is True

Should win: Ethan Hawke.
Will win: Hugh Grant. Pour one out for Morgan Spector, snubbed for his furiously vital work in The Plot Against America. (Heck, pour one out for the eternally un-nominated Plot Against America.) Hawke could win just for most acting, but Hugh Grant's years-long comeback will win over Undoing finale skeptics. —Darren Franich

Best Performance by an Actress in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Cate Blanchett, Mrs. America
Daisy Edgar-Jones, Normal People
Shira Haas, Unorthodox
Nicole Kidman, The Undoing
Anya Taylor-Joy, The Queen's Gambit

Should and will win: Anya Taylor-Joy. Acclaimed ingenues and your favorite awards-y Australians make this a uniquely stacked lineup. Count on Anya Taylor-Joy, though. Queen's Gambit is mostly deep thoughts about chess pieces, but her brilliantly destructive prodigy transformed the internal drama into the year's most addictive binge. —Darren Franich

Check out The Awardist podcast for interviews with this year's top contenders for the Oscars and more of Hollywood's biggest awards.

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