How to count an election

How to count

an election

2020 has the potential to be a much different

election than America has seen before

How to count

an election

2020 has the potential to be a much different

election than America has seen before

How to count

an election

2020 has the potential to be a much different

election than America has seen before

How to count

an election

2020 has the potential to be a much different

election than America has seen before

In every U.S. presidential election, there are three basic steps:

1

People

vote

2

Votes are

counted

3

The candidate with a

majority of electoral

college votes wins

The 2020 election will be no different in this regard, but it may take a lot longer to get from step 1 to step 3. The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred many more people to cast their ballots early to avoid crowds on Election Day. In many states, including some of the most competitive “battleground” states, early votes may take days to fully process and report, so it is quite possible that a clear winner may not emerge on November 3.

The huge interest in early voting is reflected in the spike in requests for mail-in ballots this year. More than 80 million mail-in ballots have been sent to voters by mid-October 2020, more than twice as many as in the whole of 2016. If the return rates equal those from 2016, some 55 million ballots could be returned and recorded in 2020.

HOW AMERICANS VOTE

In-person voting on Election Day has dropped 30 pct. pts. since 1996, while voting by mail has steadily increased. Early voting has ratcheted higher with every presidential election.

It’s left to the states to process and count votes, and they have developed a variety of ways to do so. Here’s what to expect:

BATTLEGROUND BALLOTS

Of the swing states, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have the least time to count mail-in ballots before Nov. 3. If the results of the election hang on these states, then we may not know who will be the next president for many days.

DAYS TO PROCESS BALLOTS PRIOR TO ELECTION DAY

The surge in mail-in votes may also give a false, initial impression of a Democratic or Republican lead in some of the most competitive states. Polls show that mail-in ballots largely favor former Vice President Joe Biden, so states like Florida and North Carolina that count those votes first may appear to be swinging early toward the Democrat. Conversely, in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, President Donald Trump may appear to take an early lead. These so-called red or blue mirages will disappear as the night goes on and more ballots are counted, though no one can predict with any certainty how long it will take to count all the votes in this most extraordinary of elections and determine a winner.

Edited by

Tiffany Wu

Sources

United States Election Project; U.S. Census; Reuters reporting