Anticipating Economic Market Crises Using Measures of Collective Panic

PLoS One. 2015 Jul 17;10(7):e0131871. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0131871. eCollection 2015.

Abstract

Predicting panic is of critical importance in many areas of human and animal behavior, notably in the context of economics. The recent financial crisis is a case in point. Panic may be due to a specific external threat or self-generated nervousness. Here we show that the recent economic crisis and earlier large single-day panics were preceded by extended periods of high levels of market mimicry--direct evidence of uncertainty and nervousness, and of the comparatively weak influence of external news. High levels of mimicry can be a quite general indicator of the potential for self-organized crises.

MeSH terms

  • Economic Recession
  • Humans
  • Investments
  • Models, Econometric
  • Panic*
  • Uncertainty*

Grants and funding

The authors have no support or funding to report.