The Armed Conflict and Intervention (ACI) Project is a joint project of the Center for Systemic Peace (CSP) and the Center for International Development and Conflict Management (CIDCM), University of Maryland, and was designed to collect global information regarding seven inter-related aspects of contemporary, complex, international interventions and external influences. The rationale for the data project is presented in Monty G. Marshall, Third World War: System, Process and Conflict Dynamics (Rowman & Littlefield, 1999). The ACI data has been structured to conform with the basic structures of the contemporary world system. This systemic structure is presented schematically in Figure 1, below (from Marshall 1999, figure 6.1, "Systemic Interactions of States in the Global Context," p. 240).

Figure 1. Click on the image to increase view to full screen.

Although the intent is to release the data to the public, only some of the data on the seven aspects listed below has been authorized for release to date (including MAC, CIO, and FDP; see button bar below to download data resources). The full data is only available to State Failure Task Force (SFTF) personnel at present. The data collection phase is mostly complete with global coverage and for most years, 1946-2002, except for the caveats listed in the six individual project descriptions below.

1) Conflict Regions (MAC)

The "security context" portion of the ACI project combines data from sixteen sources of global data covering the many forms of major armed conflict (inter-state and intra-state), codes each episode for magnitude of impact on each country directly affected by the violence (not intervenors) for each year, 1946-2000, and aggregates the armed conflict data for conflict in each country's neighboring countries and larger region (i.e., context). A country/society is considered directly affected by violence if the armed conflict episode takes place on its territory. The magnitude of impact that an episode of major armed conflict has upon a society is assessed on an ordinal scale of 1 (most limited) to 10 (greatest). Magnitude scores reflect multiple factors including state size(s), violence scope and intensity (e.g., destruction of societal infrastructure, area affected, effect on non-combatants), estimated deaths, population displacement, and episode duration. Scores are consistently assigned (i.e., comparable) across episode types and for all states directly involved. We have found very consistent "bad neighborhood/culture of violence" effects in our analyses. This is the only data resource authorized for public release at present, although it has not yet released it in electronic format. The list of "Major Episodes of Armed Conflict, 1946-2002" is posted on the CSP website, click here to go there now.

2) Direct Military Interventions (DMI)

The DMI database combines data from four extant public resources: (PB) Frederic S. Pearson and Robert A. Baumann, International Military Intervention, 1946-1988, St. Louis, Mo: University of Missouri-St. Louis, Center for International Studies (667 cases); (T) Herbert K. Tillema, Foreign Overt Military Interventions, September 2, 1945-December 31, 1991, Columbia, MO: University of Missouri (690 cases); (R) Patrick M. Regan, "Conditions of Successful Third-Party Intervention in Intrastate Conflicts," Journal of Conflict Resolution 40:336-59 (data file provided by the author--206 cases through 1994); and (UN) United Nations, UN Peacekeeping Operations, 1948-1998, Internet website: www.un.org/Depts/dpko/dpko/home.shtml. The original PB data coverage ends in 1988 (Jeffrey Pickering at Kansas State University is supposedly updating the data), T ends in 1991 (Tillema's plans for updating are not set), and R (which lacks dates for many of the cases) ends in 1994 (Regan continues to work with this research); UN data is kept current. Concurrence between the original PB and T data on interventions is about 17%(!). Confidence in the data compilation is low as there appear to be conceptual problems associated with the identification of intervention incidents. The distinctions between military intervention, militarized dispute, and interstate warfare remain underspecified and unclear. This confusion is further compounded by the unknowable and/or unmeasurable influence of covert interstate operations and supply; various forms of foreign military alliance, assistance, and training; the basing of foreign troops and materials; private (mercenary) militias; and both legal and illegal arms trade (all of which are used by states as alternate "indirect" means of military intervention).

3) Political Interaction Events (PIE)

PIE is based on Tomlinson's World Events Interaction Survey (WEIS) data. We have pared out data inconsistencies and include only inter-state interactions. WEIS data has global coverage (based on NYT reports; probably skewed toward Western perspectives) for the years 1964-1994. We have aggregated WEIS information for each country for each year to conform to global systemic structures: core states (West & East), regional states, proximate (i.e., neighboring) states, and a general category of "others." The WEIS data is proprietary and the massaged data is available only to SFTF members; it is not clear at this time when or if it might be released publicly.

4) Bilateral Trade Flows (BTF)

BTF is based on IMF Direction of Trade data; the IMF data lists total trade values (both imports and exports) for all country pairs for all years, 1946-2002. IMF data is proprietary and can not be released to the public. The IMF data has been massaged to conform to global systemic structures, similar to WEIS above except G-7 and OECD replace NATO as core structures. A proposal is being developed to solicit research funding for a systemic analysis of the global trading network.

5) Memberships in Conventional Inter-Governmental Organizations (CIO)

The "connectedness" (CIO) data uses Union of International Associations (UIA) yearbook public information to code country memberships in 380 "conventional inter-governmental organizations" (CIOs) classified as one of four types: United Nations, universal, intercontinental, and regional. Data coverage is global; CIO memberships are coded for each country for one year in every five years, 1952-1997. The CIO data is maintained as an SPSS database; the CIO data resources include several supporting documents identifying the organizations included. To download the CIO data resources, click on one or more of the following links: CIO dataset, CIO codebook, CIO addendum 1, CIO addendum 2, CIO addendum 3, CIO addendum 4.

6) Forcibly Dislocated Populations (FDP)

The FDP data set is compiled from the annual World Refugee Survey series published by the US Committee for Refugees, Washington, DC. The data covers the years 1964-2002 and includes annual end-of-year totals for each country on three categories of forcibly dislocated populations: numbers of refugees from other countries hosted in that country (HOST); numbers of refugees originating in that country and hosted elsewhere (SOURCE); and numbers of internally displaced persons in that country (IDP). The data is maintained as SPSS databases in two formats: country-case (horizontal) and annual time-series (vertical); the codebook is maintained as a MS Word document. To download the FDP data resources, click on one or more of the following links: FDP country-case data, FDP annual time-series data, FDP codebook.

7) Arms Trade

This project has been tabled for present; collection has not been initiated. Cross-national arms trade data is available from two major sources: the Arms Trade Project at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), which has collected data from 1950 to present, and the United States State Department which, since 1999, has assumed the responsibilities of the former independent Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (ACDA) and publishes the annual World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers (WMEAT) report.

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