DID YOU KNOW THAT
During the history of the Riksbank, from 1668 to today, the annual inflation was on average 2.1-2.3 percent (the exact figure depends on how inflation is measured in relation to the monetary disorder during the second half of the 1710s). This can be compared to the present inflation target of the Riksbank at 2.0 percent.
In September 1914 the Riksbank selling rate of one German mark was 89 Swedish öre. One billion German marks in September 1914 could buy one fifth of Sweden’s gross domestic product. The 1st of October 1923, the Riksbank selling rate of a billion German marks was 30 Swedish crowns. A month later the rate was 4 Swedish öre. In September 1924, the rate was below one tenth of an öre. One billion German marks could then only buy half a centilitre of Swedish milk. At the end of 1924 a new German mark was introduced, the Reichsmark, which was set equal to one trillion (one million millions) old marks.
Research at Sveriges Riksbank
The objective of economic research at the Riksbank is to provide a strong conceptual and empirical basis for policy-making. High-quality research is critical to ensure that the Riksbank is well prepared to deal with challenges associated with conducting monetary policy and promoting a safe and efficient payment system. An important task of economic research is to provide models, tools and analyses for the fulfillment of the Riksbank’s responsibilities.
RAMSES – a new DSGE model for monetary policy analysis
The Riksbank has recently developed a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model which is used for quantitative monetary policy analysis. The model has been conformed to capture 15 Swedish macroeconomic variables using the latest progress in economic research, and is being estimated with state-of-the-art Bayesian techniques. The model takes an active part in the policy process at the Riksbank, and is used for making forecasts, interpreting the recent past, and for computing the effects of alternative policy scenarios.
The model is well-documented in the academic literature and part of the research program has been devoted to empirically validate the model and the features in it. For example the forecasting accuracy of the model has been contrasted with other, more empirically oriented, forecasting tools in the paper "Evaluating an Estimated New Keynesian Small Open Economy Model", forthcoming in the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.
Workshop on Understanding and Predicting Productivity Growth
On November 30 - December 1, 2007, the Riksbank will host a research workshop on “Understanding and Predicting Productivity Growth”. The aim of the meeting is to address the following questions: (i) What are the key factors for understanding total factor productivity (TFP) growth at the disaggregate level. Especially, for sectors outside of the production of information and communication technology (ICT). (ii) What are the important determinants for understanding the recent development of aggregate TFP outcomes? (iii) Can we improve forecasts of aggregate TFP growth by using disaggregate data? (iv) What data do we need to deepen our understanding of TFP growth? To address the last question we plan for a panel session on data issues with representatives from statistical agencies as well as academia.