Trade surplus puts pressure on inflation in China

SHANGHAI: Despite a spate of product recalls from China this year and growing scrutiny over the quality and safety of its goods, the Chinese export boom continues to accelerate, according to trade statistics released Friday.

China said that it had exported $878 billion worth of goods through the first nine months of this year, up 27 percent from its record shipments a year ago.

Analysts say global worries about contaminated pet food, tainted seafood and toxic toys and toothpaste are hardly enough to slow down the powerful Chinese export engine, which has quickly come to dominate everything from electronics to textiles.

"You know, 40 million toys may be bad for dozens of toy makers in Dongguan," said Dong Tao, an economist at Credit Suisse, referring to a city in southern China. "But that's small potatoes for China's over $1 trillion a year of exports."

The Chinese trade surplus with the rest of the world ballooned to $187 billion through September of this year, up from $177.5 billion for all of 2006, and much of the gains have come at the expense of the United States and the European Union, which are buying a deluge of Chinese goods.

The Chinese price advantage over Western manufacturers in everything from labor to land continues to draw new orders to this country, analysts say.

The trade statistics bear out those facts. Even in categories where China was hit by high-profile recalls earlier this year, like food and toys, exports rose sharply, according to data compiled by the World Trade Atlas.

Chinese food and agriculture exports to the United States were up 27 percent through August, to about $2.7 billion.

Global exports of Chinese-made toys have jumped 18 percent, to about $16 billion, during the same period, despite a series of high profile recalls of lead coated toys from Mattel, the world's largest toy company.

American imports of Chinese-made toys also rose steadily, though analysts warned there could be a lag effect before a slowdown is seen there.

The trade data, however, did offer some evidence of the safety concerns, particularly in some smaller food categories.

Chinese exports of eel to the United States, for instance, fell 94 percent after the U.S. Food & Drug Administration moved last summer to block the imports of certain types of seafood, including eel and shrimp, because of longstanding concerns about excess antibiotic use or the use of banned veterinary chemicals.

And Japan, a huge importer of Chinese seafood, followed suit by canceling large orders for Chinese produced eel, according to Chinese producers.

"The whole industry got badly hurt," said Zhou Shaorong, chairman of the Guangdong Eel Industry Association in southern China. "The main reason is the FDA banned some of China's seafood imports, including eel, and then the Japanese media reported it and magnified the problem."

Japanese eel imports through August of this year dropped to about $59 million from $101 million compared to the same period in 2006.

Most companies that source from China, however, do not seem to be canceling orders. But to guard against recalls or product safety problems, over 60 percent of Chinese companies who responded to a recent survey said they were heavily investing in new quality control systems, according to Global Sources, a Hong Kong company that helps suppliers find markets.

"As more and more companies in the U.S. are understanding their liability, they are investing or requiring their suppliers to invest in quality control," said Merle Hinrichs, chairman and chief executive of Global Sources.

Things could be much worse. Following a string of recalls earlier this year, analysts warned about the looming dangers to the Chinese trade boom if the recalls continued to mount and trading partners started rejecting large shipments because of worries that Chinese made products were defective or dangerous.

But thus far, that only seems to be happening on a microscopic scale, with products like Chinese-made toothpaste, (which has been banned from sale in many countries) and certain types of seafood.

In fact, Chinese seafood exports continue to grow and find new markets this year. Also, Chinese exports of agriculture to the rest of the world through August reached $21.5 billion, up 19 percent from a year earlier. And that, it seems, is the story of Chinese growing trade dominance.

Year after year, the Chinese export juggernaut has gained despite textile quotas, sanctions, threats of sanctions, complaints about an undervalued currency, and, more recently, warnings that some Made in China goods could be dangerous or perhaps lethal.

While toys and food are important, analysts say China is moving up the ladder in electronics and automobile production, and also shipping steel and tons of furniture to all parts of the globe.

Back to top
Home  >  Business

Blogs: Managing Globalization

Join the IHT's Daniel Altman in a lively discussion of the day's economic news with an eye on globalization.