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Dangers of the Baghdad plan

Posted: Wednesday, January 17, 2007 10:36 AM
Filed Under:

Baghdad is a problem.

On a scale of one to ten, it’s an eight: one being a small Greek island in early September -- ten being Armageddon.

But today, for the first time, one of our stringers said, "I can’t wait until I get to Baghdad. It’s much safer."

I was slack jawed.

I don’t often hear the words "safer" and "Baghdad" in the same sentence. But this reporter lives in Baquoba, north east of here. Baquoba is a nine. Perhaps even and nine and a half.

"If I weren’t Sunni, I’d be dead. I’m 100 percent certain I’d be dead," he said as he handed me a tape that he’d smuggled in the ashtray of his car; reporters in the area now operate in secret.

Al-Qaida supporting Sunni gunmen have taken over large parts of the city and don’t like their pictures taken.

"They have driven out 90 percent of the Shiites in the area," he estimated.

Sectarian violence growing worse
I increasingly hear about entire villages being ethnically cleansed. Two weeks ago, we traveled to Saba al-Bor, a village north of Baghdad where Shiite militias have driven out nearly all of the Sunnis. The Sunnis are now on the outskirts of the town, lobbing in mortars, trying to drive out the Shiites. It’s a nine there too.

But our reporter today told me about a new strategy in the civil war used in a village called Hweidar near Baquoba.

Hweidar is a small Shiite village surrounded by Sunni towns.

"Do you know what the Sunnis are doing?" the reporter asked me.

"They are firing in mortars?" I suggested.

"That too… but what else?"

"Just tell me."

"They are cutting it off. They have cut the power lines and are even stopping food from entering. Now, the only way in for supplies is by bellum," he said.

A bellum is a traditional Iraqi riverboat used by fishermen and farmers. British forces used these round, flat-bottomed rafts during WWI to transport supplies during their march north to Baghdad.

American and Iraqi officials have now launched a major "Baghdad security plan."

But as our stringer reminded me today, Baghdad is only part of much wider problem.

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Comments

I understand the war is unpopular and post invasion has been dreadful but the Iraqi people need us now as much as ever, if we abandon them as we did repeatedly during the 90's it will be a very big blow to our country's image as a supporter of struggling, aspiring democracies. Let's leave the fighting of battles and military strategies to military minds, not people who write news articles for NEWSWEEK and other outlets who continuosly cry for us to leave Iraq but offer ZERO honest analysis of what would happen afterwards. I really fear for this country when the media presents such shallow and shortsighted debates and instill that process onto the public debate. Keep our countries long term priorities in mind and remember while we help Iraq's aspiring Democrats that it is al Qaeda, the Shiite death squads, the Iranian death squads, Saddam holdovers and foreign jihadis who are the bad guys, NOT America, not George Bush, not the troops in Iraq and not the elected government of Iraq.
I truly appreciate Richard Engel's reporting. I'm thankful he is there to tell us how it really is, and I hope he stays safe.
How are things to the South of Baghdad? I have a friend deployed and I'm concerned what's happening near him..
What will the situation be if and when the saudia's deploy troops... for both the shia and sunni villagers?
Richard, first of all you have been amazing and i hold my breath for your safety every day.
what do you think the us should do. i fear we are making a mistake pulling out afganistan??? should we not re-align ourselves to be stronger in the face of more intense violence in the future.we will not solve the problems in Iraq, esp since they don't even want begin the process.Why does the us have to be front and center and not surrounding. what do you think
Seems like its never going to get better in Iraq.
The story just keeps getting worse. The middle east has president idiot to thank for upsetting the balance of nature and possibly engulfing the entire region in war. I would like to know when the media is going to talk about impeaching bush or arresting him and his cabinet for war crimes.
I pray for you, Richard.  You are a true American hero.  Many of us are working every day to end this stupid, horrible war.  Please tell the Iraqi people that - and tell them we are sorry for the stupidity of those in power in Washington now. They stole the power from the people and do not represent us. We have our own "evil dictator" problem.
Richard Engel is the most courageous reporter that I have ever witnessed. While the pretty boys collect their multimillions as anchors, this man puts his life of the line ever since day. Thank you for your honest reports. Please, please stay safe.
I commented when all of this started with Afghanistan, had no one ever read Kipling and his very poetice descriptions of the caves and fighters of the region. Last night tmc played Lawrence of Arabia, what about The Charge of the Light Brigade. Centuries of imperialism should teach us something, ya think? The problem is idealogical fanatical religists on both sides. If they want armageddon and Jesus to return I wish it would hurry up and then he can tell them what idiocy zealotry is....again!
WOW...to say this is the President's fault may not be the best thing to say. Truth is, Iraq or any place in the Middle East for that matter, will never be a safe place until God comes back and stops it Himself
I think the problem of Baghdad that no one is addressing is the uneven handiness. This is the whole problem in the Mid East. If we go and send more troops to increase the uneven handiness (by supporting Shiite vs. Sunnie) not only this will not work it will increase the violence. The under dog will rebel even more. We need to insist that the existing government in Iraq be even handing or it will never work. If we can not influence them (which look like we can not) then it is better to leave. When are we going to learn?? Un fairness creates resentment and rebel does not it?? So why should we expect any difference in the Mid East.
The simplicity of the matter is that we must first take control of the streets before any plan can be implemented. If there is a rise in crime anywhere, even in hometown USA, the first action is to increase the police. Then, we go from there. Otherwise, we're quitters and losers.
Mark - it doesn't matter whether we stay one day or fifty years. This is going to descend into chaos the minute we leave.
Who is Mark from Chiago kidding! The military minds would have figured this thing out a long time ago if not for the bungling of the Bush administration.
Can we have a better example of the left's arguements about this war? Point the finger and offer nothing all while being completely ignorant or worse negligent to point out the fact that these Sunni-Shia, Islam vs. the West tensions were NOT created by Bush. Thank you Tony for clarifying that you are as worthless as your misguided opinions.
end the war , stop it now. stop our out of control dictator bush
Yeah, don't you hate it when people elected by the public turn out to be dictators. Next time some else gets elected that we don't like we should never give them a chance and not respect the people that voted for them. That will probably solve a lot of problems.
the russians went into afghanistan, and how are they doing now? the thing that all news agencies neglect to report is, who is making the money? and why is this not being reported?
This war ain't over until Isreal-Palestine problem is solved. People have to realize that nothing "American" is going to succeed in ME until we keep arming and supporting Isreal. The day US stops supporting Isreal..all the things that Rummy promised of people dancing around our tanks etc will happen. So please all those who really want to see America succeed in this war..work towards that.
Richard, I just wish to join others in thanking you for the thorough and straightforward job you do, day after day. Please stay safe .. we need you, along with Brian Williams, Tim and the rest of the news crew. Thanks again, Brian in NY
TIME TO BRING BACK THE DRAFT - AND THE FIRST TWO DRAFTED SHOULD BE BARBARA AND JENNA!
What this issue proves is how little the American people know about the Arab world. I have lived with them in America, Detroit- MI. for more than thirty years. These tribes have never bonded with each other ! They didn't in Michigan although they lived with each other. They had their spaces and areas. What people fail to realize about Sadaam is that he knew he had to keep these tribes isolated yet living around each other at the same time. What he did was establish himself in power and built a faction to support his position, never allowing power to be distributed to these tribes individually. And because this President rushed America into this situation, he lacked to take the time to study the people of Iraq as a whole. Because of this if our soldiers stay, the problems will only escalate. This is the real Iraq, the one America has never seen because under Sadaam, this situation was prevented. Don't think I supported Sadaam, because I didn't !!!
We are between a rock and a hard place now in Iraq. I fear for our own country and its safety now more than ever. The full repercussions and consequences have not even begun to hit the United States. There was a joke on late-night TV last night that the Bush Exit Strategy involves Crawford, TX in January of 09'. What a mess we are in as a nation!
We created a tragedy in Iraq. Given the total breakdown we cannot solve this problem with force unless we send hundreds of thousands of troops. Bush is attempting the worst of both worlds too little strength and no diplomacy. This makes the Baker commision seem more correct. This is important information that should be part of the debate.
Sounds like a lot a second hand clap trap, conjecture and no qualification of any induendos!!!! Get in the street and get the pics!!!! then maybe I'll believe the cr** you write about,blog smogggggggg!!!!!
I just got dropped at the Portland airport by a cabbie who got back from Basra in Iraq recently. He told me that there is a huge dislike in Iraq for the Americans and our policies/meddling and this turmoil will likely continue till we pull out of there completely. People dont have the basics, no one is safe and things have gotten worse according to him from last year and the year before.
It's the people who voted for Bush and those who let him assume power in the year 2000 that are responsible for all of this death and destruction. What a great world it would be if true majority of votes would win the elections in the USA, not these "wieghted" electoral college reforendums. Thanks Richard for the report. You are providing a great service.
Someone needs to e-mail this blog to the President, sure sounds like a civil war to me.
I feel like the Middle East is the new Africa -- what with its civil war and genocide. And -- unlike Africa, which we largely turn a blind eye to -- we have a presence there, but it doesn't appear to be doing any good. I often wonder how the Iraqi people must feel to be living in such a nightmare, yet have no voice in what happens next. Just a puppet government, and occupying forces, and centuries-old hatred and retribution. You can only watch and read the reports and think, "There, but for the grace of God, go I." No matter how crappy our politicians and government institutions can often be, it is still a blessing to live in right here in America.
To pull out of Iraq would be one of the worst disasters ever done in world history. Yes the region is currently in a state of Civil war, and I respect the reporters giving us this information. But we also need a full, not partial reporting of what is going on so the American public can be more informed of this issue and not take a knee jerk reaction as to what to do. If more troops have to be sent to stabilize the region, and Not take Any sides then so be it. The Iraqi government has yet to prove it can police itself and clean up what is going on.
The Right repeats the same stupid mistakes and turns on the Left and says, "you have no plan!". The Baker Commission was not part of the Left and it offered over 75 new ideas after 9 months of study. Bush took 3 months and just doubled his bet on a losing hand. Partition, withdrawal, talk to Iran, Syria, Palestine, whoever it takes! Impeach Bush and teach the neo-coms that they are un-American, anti-democratic, and politically inept.
Yes, the violence in Iraq is not good and there is much more suffering to be had because that is what history tells us needs to happen. One of the comments posted amazes me at the ignorance and sheer stupidity people have at times. Making statements such as..."The middle east has President idiot to thank for upsetting the balance of nature and possibly engulfing the entire region in war". Wow! Balance of Nature. What balance and what does nature have to do with it? I guess they believe that the mideast was always so peaceful and in total harmony till the President got involved. Whatever! The bottom line is that American and other western cultures have gotten so used to the having things happen instantly and to avoid suffering in any way. There is no long term thinking anymore. Instant gratification is the rule. I am sorry but there is no historical reference by which we can compare what is happening in Iraq that will lead us to think that this struggle shouldn't be happening. Mistakes will always be made no matter what you do but if we learn anything from history we need to understand that this process of completely changing the structure of a country will take years. Many more years then what we have invested. So get over it and stop trying to be arm chair quaterbacks.
Don't worry Mark, we ain't leavin. We are building permanent ... err ... "enduring" military bases over there. We are there for the long haul. All hail Operation Iraqi Liberation! All hail our mighty American Empire!
I believe the problems in the middle east have been around long before our present administration and will be around long after all of us are dead and gone, but besides that, to pull out of the middleeast now would have the same result as when we abandoned Veit Nam. We need to stay and finish the job, right or wrong, should we have gone in in the first place is all second guess and hindsight, and not relevent now. unfortunately it will cost more lives before it is over and will put a huge strain on our armed forces but the job is far from over.
The cleansing is just the beginning. You can't have a full scale civil war without territories and the creation of those territories is being accomplished through the cleansing process. Once that's completed the only thing stopping the real 'blood bath' will be American Troops. They'll wait us out. Like any good gorilla warfare once we beef up (surge) Bagdad, they'll just move the battlefield to somewhere else and continue killing until the American public has had enough. We'll leave. I experienced this once before, in Vietnam. I am afraid, Richard, this will not have a happy ending.
It's time we had a women president......... Go Hillary.... Go Democrats ......
I am thankful we have a President that has the courage to confront a ruthless Dictator like Saddam who (did) control(s) a state that sponsors terror.
I am amazed: Master Bush declares that pulling out will not only strengthen the enemy- aka "al Qaeda"- but will also leave Iranian involvement unchecked... And when was the last time he took a good hard look at the makeup of the present Iraqi government? US-troops which will be "embedded" in Iraqi units (whewww- the court-poets are really stretching it with that one: first "embedded journalists" and now embedded troops...and to *think* that they got rid of Clinton for getting "embedded"!)- and which will conduct patrols together with Iraqi security-forces whose structural integrity is seriously compromised by plenty of equally "embedded" militia-men... and exactly what are they going to do if they want to go after the very militias whose members are "embedded" with them? Throw spitballs?? Meanwhile, they are now thinking about "surges" in Afghanistan as well... Now lets look at what we've got here: An Iraqi government pretty much pre-determined by the Bush-administration, made up of all kinds of people with pro-Iranian militia-links; an Islamic republic of Iran, who by now has a seriously vested interest in as much mayhem in Iraq as possible, in the vain hope that this will keep the Americans busy- which is greatly aided by aforementioned "democratic government" which- ironically- is greatly aided by the support they receive from the aforementioned Bush-administration; additional troops being sent into the country bordering aforementioned Iran to the west, and additional troops being sent into the country bordering aforementioned Iran to the east. An additional aircraft-carriergroup has been dispatched into the gulf- presumably to provide tourist overflights for the overworked managerial staff of Halliburton. Err- am i missing anything here, or am i actually getting the feeling that this mess is about to get *one helluvalot bigger* instead of smaller??? Why should anyone be surprised if insurgents will decentralise their efforts by simply avoiding the troops sent to Baghdad- of course they'll do that. I don't need to be a military strategist to figure that out- all it takes is a wee bit of common sense. By the way- there won't be any ground-troops going into Iran. They'll simply bomb the living daylights out of that country, as they did with Iraq in 1990; the idea is to neutralise the Iranian armed forces, not to remove the Mullahs. The troops are being sent there to deal with the aftermath of all that, back in Iraq. Syria will be next after that...
This is the way it has been in the middle east since the beginning of time. What right do we have to inflict our beliefs on them any more than we would accept them to come here and try to change our ways. I believe that our presence in Iraq is the biggest cause of what is going on there and we need to back away.
Hi Richie,May the Good Lord keep you safe so that we can hear from you first hand.Iam supprise that for the first time in this country's history the Amerian people have not taken to the streets to demand the president to resign.This mediocery has planted a deep fear in the American people that if you ask for my resignation,Al-quaider will bomb you.He is evil and get him out of the white house.
Josh true the Israeli-Palistinian situation is a grave concern It should be addressed and the US should not support Israel with everything it does, but do you think everything would perfect if not for that. Would Kurds, Shias and Sunnis suddenly embrace? Very simplistic. I hope we do become a force for good and in the middle east though. Iraq will become separate states. Create stability and bring the trrops home.
Hey, Ryan in Chicago, where were you before we invaded Iraq? If only you had been able to tell King George about this Sunni-Shia thing maybe he wouldn't have thought the mission was going to be accomplished so easily. Like George, I don't think you knew the differnce between a Sunni and a Shia then. Quick, which was Sadam and which is Osama?
Bushy and Donald (Ramsy) should be ashymed themselve that put Iraq in a this position how could he sleep at night he is going to get crazy when he is finished from the White House he and his cabinet should get punished for war and it will believe that they are working on prosecute Donald for his war crime in Netherland court.
The problem is I don't know who to believe anymore. I know that the Bush Administration is a large part of the problem. However, I honestly don't believe the media anymore. They hadn't practiced correct journalism principles when the US got into this bloody mess. I.e., they didn't question what the Bush administration said was "so" [weapons of mass distruction, why we went after Saddam when the real problem was Osama, etc.] I haven't seen any real evidence that they are now following the principles. I've lost total faith in the Bush Administration, and sadly, the journalists for the most part.
richard your are the only source of truth out there in iraq i am sure the american people appreciate that. when everyone is safe and reporting from a safe distant you are there and reporting the facts. i pray that you are safe and out of harms way always.
I think some people here forget the core of the situation, which we seem to have forgotten from our misadventure in Vietnam, namely that peoples resent the presence of foreign troops on their lands and any attempt at installing a so-called dempcracy, Any body, like Mr. Maliki, will be rejected by their peoples puppets of the U.S. The more he succumbs to pressure form the U.S. to crack down on Sadr the worse it'll get there. Between the Sunni's outrage at the hangings and Sadr's outrage at this U.S.-inspired crackdown, what we've seen so far will look like a picnic. Hopefully we can throw Bush in the brig one of these days for this waste of our precious human lives and our standing in the world!!
forcing people to follow is not leadership in its truest form. if one is a true leader(and not just an enforcer) people will follow your lead. if you are going somewhere safe and good then your followers will be also. if you lead them off a cliff then they fall. just look where the IRAQUI'S have gone and you can see the quality of leadership they have been given from all quarters. it is a sad day for those that follow...
If 20 million Shiites and Sunni's want to have a civil war then there is likely nothing the USA can do but referee so that the parties engage in only a moderate amount of slaughter versus full-blown genocide. One thousand, four hundred years of antipathy between these sectarian groups is a creation of Muslim culture and an Iraqi problem . . . . if all it took was the removal of a dictator to set it off then it was going to eventually happen anyway with or without America around. Eventually, the parties will separate themselves into areas where they can feel protected . . . and then they will eventually talk and arrive at some political solution. Any solution will be arrived at by Iraqi's, not Americans. The problem Bush has is that he defines this as an American victory or an American loss when America will probably have little to do with the final result. Bob
Mark, I have to question why it is that only critics of military adventurism are required to predict the future, whereas supporters only need wave the vague threat of "disaster" to be considered authoritative and credible. We critics are also calling out "disaster," just as supporters are -- it is just that we critics define the roots and effects of disaster differently. Secondly, why do you war supporters somehow believe that the only way to "engage" with a place is through destructive force? Can you not imagine that decrease in troops could lead to a truer, more democratic engagement? Let me ask how outside military force is facilitating democracy there -- or even security. And thirdly, I think war supporters are moral cowards so obsessed with an ephemeral and non-existent "security" that they are unable to stand the thought of events taking their course without paranoid thoughts of armageddon. This of course leads to the hysteria over Iran. Our nation with thousands of nukes fears a small nation with ONE? The elephant fears the ant? It is here that the machismo of "realists" is shown up to be its opposite: paranoid cowardice. Real security only comes through having the courage to treat others as equals -- security be damned. The US now is running scared (under the rubric of manly words like "resolve" and "war on terror") -- and mistakes happen most easily when people are freaking out. Mark's post is an example. And Josh, we will not see peace in the Middle East until the Palestinians are given some security against US/Israeli violence. Peace will never be imposed through force of arms. This fake machismo is the only reason the solution has not been reached for so long: withdraw to the pre-1967 war borders. How hard is it to understand that?


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Fight for Iraq
Learn more about the ethnic, religious and political power plays in and around Iraq during a briefing of the region led by NBC’s Richard Engel.