AP Photo EKW105, EKW107, EKW110, EKW113, EKW109, EKW108, EKW104
By ANTHONY DEUTSCH
Associated Press Writer
DILI, East Timor (AP) - East Timor's people have turned out in high numbers for three rounds of elections, but the show of democracy cannot mask mounting challenges facing Asia's newest nation five years after independence.
Increasingly dependent on the international community for food and safety, divided politically and with an economy in tatters, East Timor may be on the path to becoming a failed state, analysts warn.
Campaigning for parliamentary elections last weekend and two earlier rounds of voting for president were mostly peaceful but divisive, driving the country's political leaders further apart when reconciliation was needed, election advisers and political observers say.
The ruling Fretilin party won the most votes, but fell short of the majority needed to form a government and appoint a prime minister, making a coalition government a necessity.
Fretilin will try to form an alliance with other parties, but most analysts say it has been politically isolated since violence erupted last year. They predict a coalition led by the rival party of independence hero Xanana Gusmao, which came in second place.
East Timor descended into fear and lawlessness last year when clashes between security forces morphed into widespread gang warfare, looting and arson in the seaside capital, Dili. At least 37 people were killed and 155,000 driven from their homes.
The country's troubles are rooted in a complex mix of rivalry between the dominant political personalities - one-time allies against the Indonesian occupation - and prejudices festering from Indonesia's brutal 24-year hold on the former Portuguese colony.
Low-level gang fighting continues between two broad factions: those from the country's east - said to be hard-line supporters or veterans of the independence fight - and westerners accused of having a poor record in the separatist movement.
The 2007 ``failed states index,'' compiled by the independent Washington-based Fund for Peace and published in the latest edition of Foreign Policy magazine, ranked East Timor 20th in the ``alert'' category, behind Sudan, Iraq, Somalia and Zimbabwe, among others.
The rankings are based on 12 social, economic, political and military indicators measured in 177 countries.
East Timor's lowest score was in state legitimacy, largely due to the unclear circumstances behind Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri's resignation last year under pressure from political opponents. Alkatiri, who is the Fretilin party leader, insists his unseating was a coup.
``The pressures facing East Timor are particularly destabilizing because it is such a new country without established institutions,'' said Joelle Burbank, a Fund for Peace research associate. ``Government legitimacy in a new country is particularly important, making East Timor's poor score in this category that much more destabilizing.''
Indonesia's troops unleashed a scorched-earth campaign after the country voted to break free from Jakarta's rule in 1999 in a U.N-sponsored ballot, destroying as much as 70 percent of the infrastructure. Thousands more homes and businesses were burned last year.
Despite sizable offshore oil and gas reserves, around half of East Timor's work force is unemployed and 40 percent of the population lives in poverty. Aid agencies warned last month that nearly 200,000 people - a fifth of the population - face severe food shortages.
``There are no jobs. Besides, there is still no guarantee that we are safe on our way to work,'' said Xisto Carlos, 24, who was two semesters away from graduating in computer science when his home was torched.
Like tens of thousands of others, he is too afraid to return home and has spent more than a year in a dirty, crowded camp, living on aid rations of water, beans, rice and cooking oil.
``We can't say the past five years have been good years for us,'' he said.
Nearly 3,000 foreign peacekeepers restored order after gunbattles between loyalist troops and rebel soldiers left scores dead. A special U.N. commission recommended more than 100 people be investigated for involvement in the violence, but virtually none has faced justice.
East Timor's leaders and the United Nations say foreign troops will be needed for years.
``The major problem is security, state authority,'' said Alkatiri, the Fretilin leader. ``People need to feel again this state has its own authority. It's own power to deal with the problems.''
He dismisses talk of a failed state as premature.
``This is a transitional period, from the full destruction of the country, to the reconstruction. You can only really talk of a failed country after 20 or 30 years of independent government, not after four or five years,'' Alkatiri said.
The United Nations, which administered East Timor until it became an independent state in 2002, was winding down its mission when the unrest flared.
By May 2007, it had ratcheted its staff back up to more than 2,800, including 1,600 police officers from 39 countries and increased its annual budget for East Timor by 80 percent.
Much of the future depends on the ability of the resistance-era foes to work together, experts say.
``If not, I fear for our stability and the possibility that we will become a failed state,'' said Julio Tomas Pinto, a professor of political science at East Timor's La Paz University.
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Associated Press reporter Zakki Hakim in Dili contributed to this report.
