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South Africa faces psychological test in Australia
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Test series between Australia and South Africa are a reminder of the old joke about London buses - you wait ages for one, then two come along at once.
The five-day test starting in Perth on Wednesday is the first of three to be played in Australia from now to early January. This will be followed in February and March by three more matches in South Africa.
All of the tests between the two teams since the millennium have been conducted on this basis - the earlier series were in 2001-2 and 2005-6, each time starting in Australia. If the formula is familiar, South Africa will be hoping for a very different outcome.
It goes into this series rated number two in the world, just ahead of India and a long way behind Australia at number one. The two teams have held these positions for much of the past decade.
On this basis you might expect those previous series to have been closely fought. Not a bit. South Africa has taken a remorseless hammering.
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Australia has won each three-match series and 10 matches out of 12. South Africa's only win was a dead rubber - the final match of the 2001-2 confrontation after five consecutive and ever more conclusive Australian victories. It has been beaten as much psychologically as by Australia's superior skill.
South Africa will have to break through that mental barrier if it is to mount the serious challenge to Australia that should certainly be within its capabilities this time.
Australia is vulnerable as it has not been in years.
It certainly begin its rehabilitation following its defeat in India well, with two comprehensive defeats of the underpowered New Zealanders.
Brett Lee, a fast bowler who had struggled in India, returned the best figures of his 74-match test career at Adelaide.
Brad Haddin, a wicketkeeper, who has the almost impossible task of following all-time great Adam Gilchrist, played a glorious innings of 169 filled with strokeplay worthy of his high-scoring predecessor.
New Zealand, though, is short on both talent and experience. Its lack of proven quality is shown by the fact that its captain Daniel Vettori, who bats eighth in the order and is primarily a spin-bowler, has scored more runs in tests than any of his team-mates.
South Africa is a far more formidable opponent provided it plays to anything like its ability.
It has won eight of its past nine test series. Two of those, admittedly, were against the hapless Bangladeshis but other victims include India, Pakistan home and away and England away.
The one series South Africa did not win was a 1-1 draw this year in India, against much the same team that a few months later comprehensively beat Australia.
It has achieved this run of success at a time when its best batsman, Jacques Kallis, is in the worst form of his life, averaging less than 30 runs an innings - against his career average of 55 - in test matches in 2008. He has, however, hardly been needed.
Openers Graeme Smith and Neil McKenzie and a fine middle-order - wristy strokeplayer Hashim Amla, obdurate Ashwell Prince and hard-hitting A.B. de Villiers - have all been in fine form during the year.
Perth, famed for hard, bouncy conditions, is the perfect venue for two teams strong in fast bowling.
Four of the bowlers who will play in the test are in the top 10 in the world rankings. They are Lee and the fast-developing left-armer Mitchell Johnson for Australia and Dale Steyn, the leading wicket-taker in tests this year with 60, and the veteran Makhaya Ntini for the South Africans.
The key man, though, might just be Morne Morkel, the bowler ranked only 38th in the world. Morkel's development has been slowed by injuries, but he was South Africa's leading wicket-taker when it won comprehensively in England this year.
Spin is likely to be less of a factor, at least until the Australian tests finish in Sydney in the New Year.
Paul Harris of South Africa is more a competitive journeyman than an artist while Jason "Crazy" Krejza of Australia showed himself unafraid to throw the ball up to tempt batsmen to attack on his debut in India, leaving his countrymen debating whether his 12 wickets - the third best ever by a debutant - or the price he paid - he conceded 358 runs - were the more significant statistic.
South Africa undoubtedly has the talent to win. Its best players are mostly still on the up slope of their careers, while the bulk of the Australians are on the down side.
Kallis, South Africa's veteran at 33, is younger than five of Australia's likely starting eleven.
What we will find out over the next few weeks and months is whether it has the mental strength to grasp its opportunity.
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