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Oxford Analytica
A failed debt swap signals that leading cement producer Cementos Mexicanos (Cemex) will face difficulties during 2009, even though the financial stimulus packages that many governments are announcing may represent an important glimmer of hope.

Oxford Analytica
Russia's oligarchs -- billionaires who accumulated colossal industrial and financial holdings in the 1990s -- profited mightily from the high commodity prices and easy credit of the 2000s. Now reeling from massive declines in wealth, they are struggling to retain some independence from the state even as they seek its aid.

Oxford Analytica
Falling oil prices and the credit crunch have ended the euphoria surrounding state-controlled Petrobras during the past few years. The new scenario is forcing Petrobras and the government to face a strategy re-think.

Oxford Analytica
Newly elected parliamentary Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn announced yesterday that Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and President Viktor Yushchenko would re-form their fractious governing coalition. Lytvyn's selection as speaker will help break Ukraine's legislative deadlock, but it remains uncertain whether Yushchenko and Tymoshenko can cobble together a functioning government.

Oxford Analytica
Chile is the world's largest copper producer, accounting for around 35% of international output, and copper is by far its most important export. In 2007, export earnings from copper reached 37.6 billion dollars, or 56% of total exports. Moreover, government revenue from copper -- in the form of the profits of state copper company Codelco and taxes paid by private mining companies -- accounted for almost a third of total fiscal income.

Oxford Analytica
Buoyed by strong international prices for its main legal export commodities -- natural gas, soya and zinc -- the Bolivian economy has experienced several years of expansion. The rhythm of growth first began to pick up in 2002 and has enjoyed upward momentum ever since.

Oxford Analytica
In a deteriorating economic environment, the government is finding itself increasingly caught between trying to placate militant unions, on the one hand, and business and industry, on the other. Flanked by business and trade union leaders, on December 4 President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner announced a package of measures worth 13.2 billion pesos (3.8 billion dollars), designed to bolster consumption and employment in an increasingly negative economic environment.

Oxford Analytica
There has been considerable public debate about whether the current economic crisis will become as serious as the Great Depression of the 1930s. In some respects, the current situation is worse: it is a truly global crisis, in which practically no country can claim to be immune.

Oxford Analytica
China is reorganizing its aerospace sector again, in a bid to increase competitiveness and to raise its profile. This reflects national ambitions to develop a range of world-class indigenous products and to take on more challenging collaborative programs.

Oxford Analytica
Until the end of October, Russia's National Wealth Fund (NWF) was invested solely in high-grade foreign government debt instruments. On Oct. 21, the Ministry of Finance (MinFin) released new guidelines on how the 76.4 billion dollar fund should be invested, and allowed the NWF to invest up to half of its portfolio in domestic shares and investment funds.

Oxford Analytica
West African regional banking group Ecobank Transnational has yet to disclose the results of its 2.5 billion dollar share and rights offer, more than one month after it closed. Foreign subscriptions to the August 25 issue appear to have fallen substantially below expectations. The offer was undermined by the freezing of credit markets following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September, and the financial turmoil which subsequently overtook Renaissance Capital (RenCap), Ecobank's Moscow-based strategic shareholder.

Oxford Analytica
Delegates will meet in Poznan in Poland next month to continue negotiations on a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012. An agreement from 2007 aimed to draft a successor agreement in Copenhagen late next year. Even if Poznan will produce no final treaty language, several provisions for an eventual treaty are on the agenda.

Oxford Analytica
Like all other OECD countries, the euro area's four largest Mediterranean countries -- Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal -- have been negatively affected by the rapid worsening in the international economic environment. All four countries are planning bank rescue packages but their scope and effectiveness will vary due to different pre-crisis financial structures, economic growth rates and public finances.

Oxford Analytica
The latest annual poll by Latinobarometro, a Santiago-based research organization that has surveyed public attitudes in Latin America since 1995, was carried out in September and early October before the full extent of the current international economic crisis was apparent. However, its results, together with a study -- Beyond the Facts: Understanding Quality of Life -- released recently by the InterAmerican Development Bank (IDB), provide an indication of the pressures the region's governments will face as the effects of the crisis begin to be felt.

Oxford Analytica
The announcement of an economic stimulus package on November 19 was greeted with protest over the absence of any measures to cushion the impact of stock market falls on pensions. After further market declines, the Finance Ministry has now given to politician's demands and produced a supplemental plan that would create a safety net for pensions.

Oxford Analytica
Agricultural policy is one of the least likely candidates for the 'change agenda' that President-elect Barack Obama has promised to implement. The 2008 Farm Bill extends well beyond Obama's first term, and he supported that legislation.

Oxford Analytica
Some 2 million people may have deposited cash in pyramid banks across Colombia in recent years. Several hundred thousand people now stand to lose some or all of their savings. This will have social and political consequences, as well as localized economic ones.

Oxford Analytica
Guangdong has been one of China's fastest-growing provinces, with the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region emerging as a national focus of export growth since the early 1980s. It now faces considerable challenges, exacerbated in the short term by the effect of the global slowdown on demand for what is produced there.

Oxford Analytica
The global financial crisis is taking a toll on many formerly lucrative sectors, and the Russian real estate market is no exception. Although the pace of investment was strong in the first three quarters of this year, the situation is changing rapidly.

Oxford Analytica
In past years, there has been a significant misalignment of the economic development strategies of Dubai and Abu Dhabi, largely due to the differences in the endowments of the two centers but also affected by differences in attitude, especially in terms of risk taking. This means that the global crisis impacts Dubai and Abu Dhabi in very different ways.

Oxford Analytica
The global financial crisis is taking a toll on Latin American economies and their financial systems that will lead to a sharp reduction in lending this year and in 2009. In a bid to reduce as much as possible the negative impact on economies and banks, governments, central banks, and multilateral entities have been very active in providing liquidity and financing for banks and companies.

Oxford Analytica
As was the case during the equities markets collapse in 2001, the current financial turmoil will reshape the political debate in Europe over public pension reform and the structure of pension provision. While all privately funded pensions in Europe will suffer unavoidably in the short term from the general malaise in financial markets and the expected low growth in the real economy, the more important implication of the crisis is that debates will intensify among policymakers and practitioners over the broader issues of pension fund governance and collective risk-sharing.

Oxford Analytica
Unsurprisingly, the sudden decline in oil prices has provoked concern within the Venezuelan government. On September 20, President Hugo Chavez called for "austerity" in the 2009 budget and this call been repeated by senior government ministers since.

Oxford Analytica
Financial centers such New York and London can expect significant economic impact from the global contraction of the financial sector. The fiscal effects on New York City and New York State will be particularly acute, due to their heavy dependence on tax revenue derived directly or indirectly from financial sector performance.

Oxford Analytica
The financial crisis and subsequent credit squeeze, coupled with global recession fears, are having a serious impact on agriculture and agribusiness, a crucial source of both foreign exchange and employment.

Oxford Analytica
On the basis of the government's Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) forecasts, released on November 5, the Australian economy appears to be well-placed to manage the effects of the international downturn. GDP and employment growth are forecast to slow significantly, but the Treasury assessment is that a recession is not in prospect. The budget is forecast to remain in surplus.

Oxford Analytica
Thanks to the financial crisis, the economic model driven by financial market liberalization is apparently being replaced by a system in which the state is involved as a significant shareholder in major banking firms, and where more extensive regulation is likely to ensue. In a bid to address both the credit crisis and the economic downturn, governments also appear willing to engage in borrowing and spending on a major scale.

Oxford Analytica
On October 23, OPEC announced production cuts of 1.5 million barrels per day. Despite this, the oil price has failed to rebound, with the markets anticipating falling oil demand arising from the international financial and economic crises. In Venezuela, this has put pressure on both the government and state oil company, PDVSA.

Oxford Analytica
Lee Bong-hwa, South Korea's vice minister for health, welfare and family affairs, resigned on October 21. She had admitted receiving a subsidy, intended for poor farmers, to grow rice on land she owned but did not actually farm. She is the first high profile casualty of a scandal which broke mid-October and has spread since. It is alleged that in 2007 alone, at least 168 billion won (131 million dollars) in government subsidies, meant to cushion rice growers against market opening, went to as many as 170,000 ineligible applicants, including up to 46,000 civil servants as well as some lawmakers.

Oxford Analytica
In September, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva referred to the global financial crisis as "President Bush's problem". However, since then, contagion from the United States has reached Brazil, dramatically reducing access to bank lending and capital markets. This in turn has threatened to delay or cancel billion-dollar projects ranging from roads to ports to energy production.

Oxford Analytica
The initial phases of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (FTA) have brought significant benefits for both parties, helping to absorb external pressures at a time of slowing global growth. On October 22, Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan told the fifth China-ASEAN Business and Investment Summit that it is paramount for the two partners to accelerate their economic cooperation in the face of weakening global demand. ASEAN officials also stated their wish for deeper economic ties with China, stressing the need to reduce the bloc's exposure to slowing demand from the United States, Europe and Japan.

Oxford Analytica
The economic recovery of 2003-07 was driven by an exceptionally favorable international environment, with abundant liquidity, high commodities prices and robust growth in Argentina's main trading partners. The reversal of this favorable scenario will hit an economy already facing increasing domestic difficulties.

Oxford Analytica
The recently signed US-India nuclear deal has stirred great excitement in Indian business and industrial and business circles. With only 145,000 megawatts of installed capacity, the power sector has been struggling to meet demand. India is also short of oil (importing 70% of its needs). While it does have large reserves of coal, these are of low quality and hard to exploit in an environmentally-conscious age. In this context, the opening of the nuclear power sector to international trade is seen to promise an investment bonanza.

Oxford Analytica
Successive Treasury and Federal Reserve moves to avert a systemic collapse, which gathered pace last month after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, raise questions about the future of US capitalism. The structure of the system is clearly being somewhat recast, but there is increasing speculation that it could be more profoundly transformed:

Oxford Analytica
Excessive executive compensation has come under increased scrutiny as countries have resorted to bailout plans to stabilize their domestic banking sectors. Many of these plans incorporate some restrictions on executive pay.

Oxford Analytica
Lawmakers from both major parties continue to talk tough on trade with Asia, particularly China, which they often characterize as 'unfair' (due to Beijing's alleged 'currency manipulation') and 'job destroying'. Yet economic prosperity in many US states and counties depends heavily on trade with Asia -- particularly in interior states where foreign trade is not typically seen as a contributor to growth.

Oxford Analytica
With effect from the 1970s, the growth of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies was countercyclical to the growth of the Western oil consuming nations, with high oil prices bringing recession to the latter and a boom to the former, or vice versa. In recent years this relationship has become more complex, with the economies of oil producers and consumers increasingly moving in synchrony.

Oxford Analytica
An IMF mission held consultations last week with the Ukrainian authorities on a possible stand-by lending facility. These were the first consultations between the two sides in years that focused specifically on lending. They were reportedly initiated by Ukraine, which may have good reason to request IMF assistance as the financial crisis rages across the world.

Oxford Analytica
The credit crunch is adding to the woes of the airline industry, particularly in the United States. While the aerospace manufacturing sector appears to be more resilient, a deep recession would dramatically undercut the profit outlook for all but the largest global firms.

Oxford Analytica
The International Working Group on Sovereign Wealth Funds (IWG) released the Santiago Principles -- also known as the Generally Accepted Principles and Practices (GAPP) -- on October 11. The release of these principles is an important step towards resolving any remaining distrust or confusion surrounding Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF).

Oxford Analytica
Africa's banking systems have largely escaped direct contagion from the crises of confidence afflicting those in the developed world. However, Africa faces significant potential fallout from the real-economy impacts of the global disruption.

Oxford Analytica
The collapse of confidence in the international banking system has precipitated the most serious economic crisis since 1929. Now at last, developed world governments -- including the United States, United Kingdom and the largest Euro-area economies -- are taking aggressive steps to mitigate its worst effects. They are doing so both by taking direct equity stakes in the largest financial institutions -- which simultaneously recapitalizes the banks, increases confidence, and reduces perceived counter-party risk -- and (in the United States) potentially also purchasing some of the difficult to value assets that precipitated the crisis.

Oxford Analytica
When Robert Zoellick was appointed president of the World Bank in mid-2007, the institution had been badly damaged by the poor stewardship of his predecessor, Paul Wolfowitz. The confidence of its European shareholders in the management had dissipated over the previous two years. The staff had become largely demoralized, and many top appointees were leaving. The anti-corruption crusade that Wolfowitz had made the centerpiece of his presidency had been undermined by his own actions. Zoellick's immediate task was to turn round this dire inheritance.

Oxford Analytica
The level of government intervention resulting from the financial crisis has no recent US precedent. The sum of the liabilities assumed by federal authorities during the past six months -- from transactions involving mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the insurer AIG, investment bank Bear Stearns and eleven failed regional banks -- now exceeds 50% of GDP. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's 700 billion dollar financial sector rescue plan, which was finally approved by Congress on October 3, could push the fiscal deficit in 2009 up to 1.5 trillion. However, the eventual scale of government intervention is likely to be much larger.

Oxford Analytica
Peru is considered one of the most promising banking markets in Latin America, as about half of all working Peruvians still do not have bank accounts. As the economy continues to perform well, loans to the small- and medium-sized business sector in Peru are seen as a driver of growth. About 80% of all the country's exporters are classed as small companies and many are in need of loans.

Oxford Analytica
Seoul is worried about a continuing slide in the currency that has brought it to levels last seen in the late 1990s, when Asia was in financial crisis. Capital has been flowing out of the country as foreign investors look to offset the liquidity squeeze that has come with an international financial crisis to which South Korea is also exposed.

Oxford Analytica
South Korea's President Lee Myung-bak said yesterday that he will propose a summit with China and Japan on responding to the global financial crisis. His move comes at a time when governments across Asia are drawing lessons from the financial crisis, which, although not of their making, has implications for financial sectors in their countries and for their wider economies.

Oxford Analytica
Expectations for a rapid rollout of mobile banking (or m-banking) services have been revived by the extraordinary success of Kenyan mobile phone operator Safaricom's M-Pesa money transfer facility, leading to renewed predictions that the mobile phone and banking sectors are in the process of convergence.

Oxford Analytica
Long-awaited proposals were released yesterday to overhaul the EU regulatory and supervision framework for banks conducting business across national borders and to strengthen capital requirements.

Oxford Analytica
That technological change is transforming economic and social relations in Africa has become something of a cliche and is often presented as a panacea for Africa's ills. Mobile-phones and the internet are being used to coordinate agricultural prices, transfer money and coordinate famine relief. However, the political impact of new technologies has received less attention.






















































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