Palestinian
Public Opinion Poll No (31)
With the popularity of Abbas and Fayyad
declining sharply and the popularity of Haniyeh and Hamas increasing
significantly, the public becomes more hawkish and pessimistic about the peace
process and the overwhelming majority believes Palestinians after the war on
Gaza are worse off than before the war
5-7 March 2009
These are the results of the
latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR)
in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 5 and 7 March 2009. The poll was
conducted several weeks after the Israeli attack on the Gaza Strip.
The poll
period witnessed return of Palestinian factions to reconciliation talks
sponsored by Egypt. The poll examines the
following topics: domestic issues such as the balance of power, the performance
and legitimacy of two governments, that of Ismail Haniyeh and Salam Fayyad, the
peace process, and the Israeli elections.
Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly
selected locations. Margin of error is 3%.
For further details, contact PSR director, Dr.
Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email
pcpsr@pcpsr.org.
Table of contents:
1)
Domestic Palestinian Conditions
2)
Peace Process
3)
Israeli Elections
4)Main Findings in numbers
Main Findings:
Findings of the first quarter of 2009 indicate a significant increase in the
popularity of Ismail Haniyeh and Hamas and decease in the popularity of
president Mahmud Abbas and Fateh. They also indicate a significant decline in
the status and legitimacy of Salam Fayyad. Despite these findings, Fateh’s
popularity remains higher than that of Hamas. The two most important factors
shaping public attitudes regarding these issues seem to be the Israeli offensive
against Gaza, particularly the performance of Abbas and the government of Fayyad
during the war, and public perceptions of the end of Abbas’s term in office and
hence the loss of legitimacy suffered by the Fayyad’s government.
Findings also indicate a negative shift in Palestinian public attitudes
regarding the peace process as the percentage of those willing to compromise
goes down and the percentage of those supporting the peace process goes up. The
public takes a hardline view regarding resumption of negotiations before Israel
freezes settlement construction.
All this comes within a highly pessimistic context with a rise in the belief
that a Palestinian state is not going to be established within the next five
years and the majority expecting the electoral victory of the right wing in
Israel to lead to the failure of the peace process and to an increase in
settlement expansion.
(1) Domestic Palestinian
Conditions
-
If new presidential elections were held today and the two candidates were
Ismail Haniyeh and Mahmud Abbas, the former receives 47% of the vote and the
later 45%.
-
But if the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Haniyeh, the
former wins with 61% of the vote compared to 34% for Haniyeh.
-
Popularity of Hamas increases from 28% in our December 2008 poll to 33%
in this poll while the popularity of Fateh drops from 42% to 40% during the
same period.
-
Decline in the popularity of Abbas and Fateh reflects a decline in the
percentage of popular satisfaction with the performance of president Abbas
from 46% three months ago to 40% in this poll. Moreover, positive evaluation
of the performance of Salam Fayyad’s government declines from 34% to 32%
during the same period while positive evaluation of the performance of
Haniyeh’s government increases significantly from 36% to 43%.
-
Despite the visible increase in the popularity of Hamas and Haniyeh, the
overwhelming majority (71%) says that given the outcome of the Israeli war
on Gaza, conditions of the Palestinians today are worse off than they were
before the war, while only 11% say conditions today are better off than they
were before the war. 17% say conditions have not changed.
-
Similarly, Hamas’s call for the establishment of a new representative
body that can serve as an umbrella for the resistance groups receives the
support of only one third of the Palestinians while 57% say that the PLO
should be maintained.
-
The largest percentage (46%) believe that the most important priority for
Palestinians today should be the unification of the West Bank and the Gaza
Strip while 28% say it should be the return to quite and the opening of Gaza
crossings and 25% say the top priority should be the reconstruction in the
Gaza Strip.
-
If Hamas wins new presidential and legislative elections, 63% of the
public believe that such an outcome would lead to the tightening of the
siege and boycott while an additional 19% say current conditions of boycott
would remain the same and only 12% say a Hamas electoral victory would lead
to the lifting of the siege and boycott.
-
Similarly, if Hamas wins new presidential and legislative elections, 47%
of the public believe that such an outcome would lead to the consolidation
of the split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and an additional 23%
say current conditions would remain the same but only 24% say a Hamas
victory would lead to the consolidation of West Bank-Gaza Strip unity.
If new presidential elections were held
today and the two candidates were Ismail Haniyeh and Mahmud Abbas, the former
receives 47% of the vote and the later 45%. Three months ago, Abbas received 48%
and Haniyeh 38%. But if the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Haniyeh,
the former wins with 61% of the vote compared to 34% for Haniyeh. Three months
ago, Barghouti received 59% and Haniyeh 32%. Decline in the popularity of Abbas
and Fateh reflects a decline in the percentage of popular satisfaction with the
performance of president Abbas from 46% three months ago to 40% in this poll.
Moreover, it seems that public perception of the ending of Abbas’s term in
office is leading 27% to believe that the legitimate president today is the
Speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council, and 24% to believe that there is
no legitimate president today, while only 39% believe that the legitimate
president today is Abbas.
Findings indicate that the popularity of
Haniyeh is higher in the West Bank (50%) than in the Gaza Strip (44%). The
opposite is true for Abbas; he is more popular in the Gaza Strip (50%) than in
the West Bank (41%). Haniyeh is more popular among women (53%) compared to men
(41%) while Abbas is more popular among men (51%) than women (40%). Haniyeh is
also more popular among those who describe themselves as “religious” (57%) and
less popular among those who define themselves are “somewhat religious” (38%).
Abbas on the other hand is more popular among the “somewhat religious” (55%) and
less popular among the “religious” (35%).
Haniyeh is more popular among those opposed to the peace process (82%) and less
popular among those supporting the peace process (35%). Abbas is more popular
among supporters of the peace process (5%) and less popular among those opposed
to the peace process (14%). Haniyeh is more popular among those over 47 years of
age (55%) and less popular among those between the ages of 18-27 years (46%). On
the other hand, Abbas is less popular among those over 47 years of age (35%) and
more popular among all those younger than that, for example, reaching 50% among
those whose age is between 38-47 years. Haniyeh is more popular among the
illiterates (56%) and less popular among those with a BA degree (43%). Abbas is
more popular among those who have a BA degree (50%) and less popular among the
illiterates (34%). It is noticeable that Abbas popularity increases considerably
among those employed in the public sector (72%) while Haniyeh’s popularity is
very low among this group declining to 23%. Finally, as expected, Haniyeh is
very popular among Hamas supporters (96%) while Abbas is very popular among
Fateh supporters (90%). Among those voting for other parties, Abbas receives 51%
while Haniyeh receives 36%. Among the undecided, Abbas receives 27% and Haniyeh
37%.
Popularity of Hamas increases from 28% in
our December 2008 poll to 33% in this poll while the popularity of Fateh drops
from 42% to 40% during the same period. The gap between Fateh and Hamas reaches
12 percentage points in favor of Fateh in the Gaza Strip but reaches only 3
percentage points in the West Bank, also in favor of Fateh.
Moreover, positive evaluation of the
performance of Salam Fayyad’s government declines from 34% to 32% during the
same period while positive evaluation of the performance of Haniyeh’s government
increases significantly from 36% to 43%. In the competition over legitimacy
between the governments of Haniyeh and Fayyad, 35% say Haniyeh’s government is
the legitimate one while only 24% say Fayyad’s is the legitimate one. Thee
months ago, 28% said Haniyeh’s government was the legitimate one and 30% said
Fayyad’s government was the legitimate one.
Despite the visible increase in the
popularity of Hamas and Haniyeh, the overwhelming majority (71%) says that given
the outcome of the Israeli war on Gaza, conditions of the Palestinians today are
worse off than they were before the war, while only 11% say conditions today are
better off than they were before the war. 17% say conditions have not changed.
In the Gaza Strip, the percentage of those who believe that Palestinians are
worse off today reaches 79%.
Moreover, despite the decline in the
popularity and status of Abbas and Fayyad, 25% say conditions in the West Bank
are good while only 7% say conditions in the Gaza Strip are good.
Similarly, Hamas’s call for the
establishment of a new representative body that can serve as an umbrella for the
resistance groups receives the support of only one third of the Palestinians
while 57% say that the PLO should be maintained.
The largest percentage (46%) believe that
the most important priority for Palestinians today should be the unification of
the West Bank and the Gaza Strip while 28% say it should be the return to quite
and the opening of Gaza crossings and 25% say the top priority should be the
reconstruction in the Gaza Strip. In the Gaza Strip, belief that Gaza
reconstruction should be the top priority stand at 21% only compared to 27% in
the West Bank.
Findings show that the belief that the top Palestinian priority today should be
the unification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip is equal in the West Bank
and the Gaza Strip. But is more widespread among men (51%) than women (42%),
among the “somewhat religious” (53%) compared to the “religious” (40%), among
those holding a BA degree (51%) compared to the illiterates (33%), among
employees (56%) compared to housewives (40%), and among Fateh voters (54%)
compared to Hamas’s (40%).
Finally, Fateh’s greater popularity compared
to Hamas’s reflects public perceptions regarding possible implications of
election outcome on two major issues that seem to influence electoral behavior
more than any other issue as we saw in our last poll in December. These two
issues are the ending of siege and blockade and the unification of the West Bank
and the Gaza Strip. Current findings indicate the following:
-
if Hamas wins new presidential and legislative elections, 63% of the
public believe that such an outcome would lead to the tightening of the siege
and boycott while an additional 19% say current conditions of boycott would
remain the same and only 12% say a Hamas electoral victory would lead to the
lifting of the siege and boycott. By contrast, if Fateh wins new presidential
and legislative elections, only 11% say that such outcome would lead to the
tightening of the siege and boycott and an additional 24% say current conditions
would remain the same, but the majority (61%) says a Fateh electoral victory
would lead to the lifting of the siege and boycott. It is worth noting that the
belief that a Fateh electoral victory would lead to the lifting of the siege
increases significantly in the Gaza Strip reaching 76% and decreases to 52% in
the West Bank.
- Similarly, if Hamas wins new
presidential and legislative elections, 47% of the public believe that such an
outcome would lead to the consolidation of the split between the West Bank and
the Gaza Strip and an additional 23% say current conditions would remain the
same but only 24% say a Hamas victory would lead to the consolidation of West
Bank-Gaza Strip unity. By contrast, if Fateh wins new presidential and
legislative elections only 31% say that such an outcome would lead to the
consolidation of the split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and an
additional 26% say current conditions would remain the same, but 37% say such a
Fateh electoral victory would lead to the consolidation of West Bank-Gaza Strip
unity. It is worth noting that the belief that a Hamas electoral victory lead
to the consolidation of West Bank-Gaza Strip split increases considerably in the
Gaza Strip compared to the West Bank (56% compared to 42%) while the belief that
a Fateh electoral victory would lead to the consolidation of West Bank-Gaza
Strip unity increases significantly in the Gaza Strip reaching 47%% and
decreases to 31% in the West Bank. Belief that Hamas’s victory in the next
elections would consolidate separation between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip
is stronger in the Gaza Strip (56%) compared to the West Bank (42%), among
residents of refugee camps (54%) compared to residents of cities (44%), among
men (49%) compared to women (46%), among the “somewhat religious” (54%) compared
the “religious” (40%), among those whose age is between 18-27 years (51%)
compared to those whose age is over 47 years (42%), among refugees (53%)
compared to non-refugees (42%), among those holding a BA degree (50%) compared
to illiterates (35%), among employees and students (55% each) compared to
farmers and laborers (28% and 38% respectively), among those working in the
public sector (59%) compared to those working in the private sector (46%), and
among Fateh voters (67%) compared to Hamas voters (32%).
(2) Peace Process
-
50% of the Palestinians agree and 48% disagree that after the
establishment of an independent Palestinian state and the settlement of all
issues in dispute, including the refugees and Jerusalem issues, there will
be a mutual recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and
Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people. Support for this mutual
recognition stood at 53% and opposition at 46% three months ago.
-
73% of the Palestinians think that chances for the establishment of an
independent Palestinian State next to the State of Israel in the next five
years are non-existent or low
-
58% support the Saudi Plan and 39% oppose it; in December 2008, 66%
supported the plan and 30% opposed it.
-
54% of the Palestinians support and 42% oppose armed attacks against
Israeli civilians inside Israel. Three months ago, support for such attacks
stood at 48% and opposition at 49%.
-
38% of the Palestinians support and 58% oppose return to
Palestinian-Israeli final status negotiations before an Israeli freeze on
settlement activity.
Findings indicate a decline in public support for the peace process. For
example, support for the Saudi initiative (which calls for full Israeli
withdrawal from occupied Arab land and the establishment of a Palestinian state
in return for a peace agreement with Israel and a normalization of relations
between Israel and all Arab countries) drops from 77% three months ago to 58% in
this poll. Opposition to the plan stands today at 39% compared to 30% in our
last poll in December 2008. Moreover, willingness to accept mutual recognition
of Israel as the state for the Jewish people and Palestine as the state for the
Palestinian people after the establishment of a Palestinian state and the
resolution of all problems of the conflict drops from 53% three months ago to
50% in this poll.
Findings also indicate that the overwhelming majority (73%) believe that the
chances for the creation of an independent Palestinian state next to Israel
during the next five years are slim to non-existent while only
24% of the Palestinians believe the chances are
medium or high. Three months ago, these percentages stood at 70% and 29%
respectively, indicating an increase in the level of pessimism.
Findings also indicate an increase in public
support for armed attacks against Israeli civilians inside Israel from 48% in
December 2008 to 54% in this poll. Opposition to armed attacks today stands at
43% compared to 49% three months ago. Support for armed attacks against
Israeli targets increases in the Gaza Strip (67%) compared to the West Bank
(47%), among the “religious” (59%) compared to the “somewhat religious” (49%),
among those whose age is between 18-27 years (61%) compared to those whose age
is over 47 years (53%), among those holding a BA degree (59%) compared to
illiterates (52%), among students and employees (67% and 63% respectively)
compared to merchants and housewives (37% and 51% respectively), and among Hamas
voters (70%) compared to Fateh voters (45%).
Finally, Findings show that a majority opposes
return to Palestinian-Israeli negations before Israel freezes settlement
construction while 37% support return to negotiations despite continued Israeli
settlement construction. Opposition to return to negotiations before
freezing settlement construction increases in the West Bank (61%) compared to
the Gaza Strip(53%), among men (66%) compared to women (50%), among those
holding a BA degree (66%) compared to illiterates (48%), among employees and
students (66% and 61% respectively) compared to laborers and housewives (53% and
51% respectively), and among Hamas voters (69%) compared to Fateh voters (47%).
(3)
Israeli Elections
-
70% of the Palestinians
think that there is no difference between Israeli right-wing parties and
parties of the center and left; 26% think that there are differences between
them.
-
Only 7% expect that negotiations with the
new Israeli government will be more successful in ending settlement
expansion and bringing peace, and 62% expect settlements to continue to
expand and peace efforts to fail. In this regard, Findings show
Findings show that a majority of Palestinians (70%) believe that there is no
difference between the various Israeli parties of the right, center and left
when it comes to the peace process while 26% say there is a difference. They
also show a widespread pessimism regarding the chances of the peace process
after the electoral victory of the right in the latest Israeli elections with
62% saying that the outcome of the elections will lead to increased settlement
activities and a failure for peace efforts. 28% expect current conditions to
remain unchanged and only 7% expect negotiations to succeed in ending settlement
construction and achieving peace.
Belief that differences exist between the various right wing, center, and left
wing Israeli parties increases among women (30%) compared to men (23%), among
supporters of the peace process (30%) compared to those opposed to the peace
process (16%), among those whose age is between 18-27 years (35%) compared to
those whose age is over 47 years (20%), among illiterates (29%) compared to
those holding BA degree (21%), among students (37%) compared to employees (23%),
and among Fateh voters (33%) compared to Hamas voters (21%).
PSR Poll No. 31
5-7 March 2009
|
|
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
00 ) |
From among the following satellite news
stations, which one you watched most during the last two months? |
|
|
1) Al Arabia |
9.8 |
6.7 |
15.4 |
|
|
2) Al Jazeera |
61.7 |
68.2 |
50.5 |
|
|
3) Al Hurra |
0.1 |
|
0.2 |
|
|
4) Al Manar |
2.6 |
3.6 |
1.0 |
|
|
5) Palestine TV |
6.0 |
4.8 |
8.0 |
|
|
6) Al-Aqsa TV |
12.6 |
9.4 |
18.2 |
|
|
7) Do not watch TV |
4.2 |
4.0 |
4.6 |
|
|
8) Others |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
|
|
9) Do not have a dish |
0.7 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
|
|
10) No Opinion/Don’t know |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
01) |
In general, how would you describe
conditions of the Palestinians in the Palestinian areas in Gaza
Strip these days? |
|
|
1) Very good |
1.1 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
|
|
2) Good |
5.7 |
6.1 |
4.9 |
|
|
3) So so |
10.4 |
10.4 |
10.4 |
|
|
4) Bad |
36.8 |
38.7 |
33.4 |
|
|
5) Very bad |
45.8 |
43.2 |
50.2 |
|
|
6) DK/NA |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
02) |
In general, how would you describe
conditions of the Palestinians in the Palestinian areas in the West
Bank these days? |
|
|
1) Very good |
4.5 |
2.5 |
8.0 |
|
|
2) Good |
20.7 |
16.9 |
27.2 |
|
|
3) So so |
30.4 |
34.5 |
23.1 |
|
|
4) Bad |
27.1 |
30.0 |
22.0 |
|
|
5) Very bad |
14.1 |
16.0 |
10.7 |
|
|
6) DK/NA |
3.3 |
0.1 |
9.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
03) |
Generally, do you see yourself as: |
|
|
1) Religious |
48.5 |
44.0 |
56.3 |
|
|
2) Somewhat
religious |
47.9 |
51.6 |
41.4 |
|
|
3) Not religious |
3.2 |
3.9 |
2.1 |
|
|
4) DK/NA |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
04) |
Generally, do you see yourself as: |
|
|
1) Supportive of the
peace process |
61.9 |
55.4 |
73.3 |
|
|
2) Opposed to the
peace process |
19.9 |
22.7 |
15.0 |
|
|
3) Between support
and opposition |
16.4 |
19.5 |
11.0 |
|
|
4) DK/NA |
1.8 |
2.5 |
0.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
05) |
Do you think that there is corruption in PA
institutions under the control of President Abu Mazin? |
|
|
1) Yes |
68.8 |
71.3 |
64.4 |
|
|
2) No |
16.0 |
13.4 |
20.6 |
|
|
3) DK/NA |
15.2 |
15.3 |
15.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
06) |
If yes, will this corruption in PA
institutions under the control of President Abu Mazin increase,
decrease or remain as it is in the future? |
|
|
1) Will increase
|
44.4 |
51.7 |
30.4 |
|
|
2) Will remain as it
is |
16.4 |
16.1 |
17.0 |
|
|
3) will decrease |
30.4 |
24.3 |
42.1 |
|
|
4) DK/NA |
8.8 |
7.9 |
10.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
07) |
How would you evaluate the current status of
democracy and human rights in the Palestinian Authority under Abu
Mazin? Would you say it is: |
|
|
1) Very good |
5.6 |
3.4 |
9.4 |
|
|
2) Good |
27.8 |
24.8 |
32.8 |
|
|
3) neither bad nor good |
27.7 |
28.9 |
25.5 |
|
|
4) Bad |
20.1 |
23.1 |
15.1 |
|
|
5) Very bad |
13.9 |
14.7 |
12.3 |
|
|
6) DK/NA |
4.9 |
5.0 |
4.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
08) |
How would you evaluate the current status of
democracy and human rights in the Gaza Strip under Ismail Hanyieh
government? Would you say it is: |
|
|
1) Very good |
8.1 |
6.7 |
10.4 |
|
|
2) Good |
22.5 |
21.9 |
23.6 |
|
|
3) Fair |
19.8 |
17.6 |
23.7 |
|
|
4) Bad |
22.8 |
22.3 |
23.5 |
|
|
5) Very bad |
15.3 |
15.1 |
15.8 |
|
|
6) DK/NA |
11.5 |
16.3 |
3.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
09) |
Would you say that these days your security
and safety, and that of your family, is assured or not assured? |
|
|
1) Completely
assured |
5.9 |
2.2 |
12.5 |
|
|
2) Assured |
44.5 |
46.1 |
41.7 |
|
|
3) Not assured |
41.2 |
43.7 |
36.9 |
|
|
4) Not assured at
all |
8.2 |
8.0 |
8.5 |
|
|
5) DK/NA |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10) |
Do current political, security, and economic
conditions lead you to seek emigration abroad? |
|
|
1) Certainly seek to emigration |
10.8 |
7.0 |
17.5 |
|
|
2) Seek emigration |
15.3 |
15.0 |
15.9 |
|
|
3) Do not seek emigration |
36.3 |
39.2 |
31.2 |
|
|
4) Certainly do not seek
emigration |
37.5 |
38.7 |
35.3 |
|
|
5) DK/NA |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11) |
Tell us how do you evaluate the performance
of the dismissed government of Ismail Haniyeh in the Gaza Strip? Is
it good or bad? |
|
|
1) Very Good
|
11.9 |
10.5 |
14.4 |
|
|
2) Good
|
31.4 |
32.4 |
29.6 |
|
|
3) Neither
good nor bad |
20.7 |
17.6 |
26.0 |
|
|
4) Bad |
17.5 |
17.5 |
17.7 |
|
|
5) Very Bad |
7.6 |
6.9 |
8.9 |
|
|
6) No
Opinion/Don’t know |
10.8 |
15.0 |
3.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12) |
Tell us how do you evaluate the performance
of the government headed by Salam Fayyad? Is it good or bad? |
|
|
1) Very Good
|
5.0 |
3.1 |
8.4 |
|
|
2) Good
|
26.5 |
25.9 |
27.6 |
|
|
3) Neither
good nor bad |
24.7 |
26.7 |
21.1 |
|
|
4) Bad |
22.6 |
22.8 |
22.3 |
|
|
5) Very Bad
|
10.2 |
9.6 |
11.3 |
|
|
6) No
Opinion/Don’t know |
10.9 |
11.9 |
9.2 |
|
13) |
Are you satisfied or not satisfied with the
performance of Mahmud Abbas since his election as president of the
PA? |
|
|
1) Very satisfied |
4.3 |
3.1 |
6.4 |
|
|
2) Satisfied |
35.8 |
34.4 |
38.3 |
|
|
3) Not satisfied
|
38.2 |
37.1 |
40.2 |
|
|
4) not satisfied at
all |
17.2 |
19.5 |
13.2 |
|
|
5) DK/NA |
4.5 |
5.9 |
1.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14) |
If new presidential elections are to take
place today, and Mahmud Abbas was nominated by Fateh and Ismail
Haniyeh was nominated by Hamas, whom would you vote for? |
|
|
1) Mahmud Abbas |
45.1 |
40.9 |
50.3 |
|
|
2) Ismail Haniyeh |
47.1 |
49.8 |
43.7 |
|
|
3 DK/NA |
7.8 |
9.3 |
6.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
15) |
And if the competition was between Marwan
Barghouti representing Fateh and Ismail Haniyeh representing Hamas,
whom would you vote for? |
|
|
1) Marwan Barghouti |
61.1 |
59.6 |
63.2 |
|
|
2) Ismail Haniyeh |
33.7 |
33.1 |
34.5 |
|
|
3) No Opinion/ Don’t know |
5.2 |
7.3 |
2.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
17)
|
If new elections agreed to by all factions
are held today and the same lists that took part in the last PLC
elections were nominated, for whom would you vote? |
|
|
1) alternative |
1.5 |
1.8 |
1.1 |
|
|
2) independent Palestine |
2.8 |
4.1 |
0.9 |
|
|
3) Abu Ali Mustafa |
4.6 |
5.8 |
2.7 |
|
|
4) Abu al Abbas |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
|
|
5) freedom and social justice |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
6) change and reform |
32.8 |
31.8 |
34.3 |
|
|
7) national coalition for justice and democracy
|
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
|
|
8) third way |
0.9 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
|
|
9) freedom and independence |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
|
|
10) Palestinian justice |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
|
11) Fateh |
39.5 |
35.0 |
46.0 |
|
|
12) none of the above/ DK/NA |
16.9 |
19.3 |
13.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
18) |
After the separation between Gaza and the
West Bank, Hamas and the government of Ismail Haniyeh remained in
power in Gaza and considered itself the legitimate government while
president Abu Mazin formed a new government headed by Salam Fayyad
and it too considered itself legitimate. What about you, which of
the two government you consider legitimate, the government of
Haniyeh or the government of Abu Mazin and Fayyad? |
|
|
1) Haniyehs’ government is the legitimate one |
34.6 |
33.7 |
36.2 |
|
|
2) Abu Mazin’s and Fayyad government is the
legitimate one |
25.0 |
22.1 |
30.2 |
|
|
3) Both governments are legitimate |
9.0 |
9.6 |
8.1 |
|
|
4) Both governments are not legitimate |
26.0 |
28.4 |
21.9 |
|
|
5) DK/NA |
5.3 |
6.2 |
3.7 |
|
19) |
Given the outcome of the Israeli war against
the Gaza Strip, do you think the Palestinians are today better or
worse off than they were before the war? |
|
|
1) better off |
10.6 |
12.3 |
7.5 |
|
|
2) worse off |
71.2 |
66.7 |
79.0 |
|
|
3) same as before the war
|
17.3 |
19.7 |
13.2 |
|
|
4) DK/NA |
1.0 |
1.3 |
0.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
20) |
Do you support for oppose a return to the
quite that existed before the Israeli attack on Gaza? |
|
|
1) certainly support |
14.3 |
12.9 |
16.7 |
|
|
2) support |
60.9 |
61.1 |
60.5 |
|
|
3) oppose |
19.0 |
18.9 |
19.1 |
|
|
4) Certainly oppose |
3.6 |
4.0 |
2.7 |
|
|
5) DK/NA |
2.3 |
3.1 |
1.0 |
|
21) |
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the
performance of the Hamas government in the Gaza Strip with regard to
providing housing and reconstruction to the victims of the Israeli
attack? |
|
|
1) certainly satisfied |
8.3 |
8.5 |
7.9 |
|
|
2) satisfied |
40.5 |
43.6 |
35.3 |
|
|
3) dissatisfied |
28.1 |
24.1 |
34.9 |
|
|
4) Certainly dissatisfied
|
9.6 |
6.2 |
15.5 |
|
|
5) DK/NA |
13.6 |
17.6 |
6.5 |
|
22) |
From among the following three Palestinian
priorities, which in your opinion is the most important one? |
|
|
1) Gaza reconstruction |
24.9 |
27.3 |
20.7 |
|
|
2) reconciliation and reunification
of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip |
46.1 |
45.9 |
46.7 |
|
|
3) return to quite and opening of
Gaza crossings |
28.3 |
26.2 |
31.8 |
|
|
4) DK/NA |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
23) |
There is talk these days about establishing
a new authoritative institution that serves as an umbrella
organization for resistance groups, but some Palestinians see in it
a a threat that might weaken or displace the PLO. What do you think?
Should a new institution be established or should the PLO be
maintained and strengthened? |
|
|
1) a new institution should be
established |
32.7 |
33.8 |
30.8 |
|
|
2) the PLO should be maintained and
strengthened |
56.6 |
53.8 |
61.4 |
|
|
3) other (specify ---- ) |
3.3 |
4.1 |
2.0 |
|
|
4) DK/NA |
7.4 |
8.3 |
5.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
24) |
In your view, who is the legitimate
president of the PA today? |
|
|
1)
Speaker of the PLC |
27.3 |
23.1 |
34.4 |
|
|
2)
Mahmud Abbas |
38.6 |
33.9 |
47.0 |
|
|
3)
other (specify ------- ) |
3.6 |
4.9 |
1.5 |
|
|
4)
no one |
23.7 |
30.3 |
12.2 |
|
|
5)
DK/NA |
6.8 |
7.9 |
4.9 |
|
|
|
|
25) |
If Fateh-Hamas reconciliation failed, would
you in this case support holding legislative and presidential
elections in the West Bank while postponing elections in the Gaza
Strip until after reconciliation is achieved? |
|
|
1) certainly support it |
5.5 |
4.6 |
7.1 |
|
|
2) support it |
30.0 |
34.4 |
22.1 |
|
|
3) oppose it |
44.7 |
42.0 |
49.3 |
|
|
4) Certainly oppose it |
17.3 |
15.7 |
20.2 |
|
|
5) DK/NA |
2.6 |
3.3 |
1.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
26) |
If Hamas wins next legislative and president
elections, will this in your view lead to the lifting or to
tightening of the international boycott of the Palestinian
government? |
|
|
1) will lead to the
lifting of the boycott |
11.9 |
11.1 |
13.2 |
|
|
2) will lead to the
tightening of the boycott |
63.3 |
62.7 |
64.4 |
|
|
3) conditions will
stay as they are today |
19.1 |
21.3 |
15.3 |
|
|
4) DK/NA |
5.7 |
4.9 |
7.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
27) |
And what about the unity between the West
Bank and the Gaza Strip? Will a Hamas victory in the next
legislative and presidential elections lead to consolidation of
unity between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip or will it lead to
consolidating the split between the two areas? |
|
|
1) will lead to
consolidation of WBGS unity |
24.4 |
25.2 |
23.0 |
|
|
2) will lead to
consolidation of WBGS split |
47.1 |
42.3 |
55.5 |
|
|
3) conditions of
WBGS will stay as they are today |
22.6 |
25.3 |
18.0 |
|
|
4) DK/NA |
5.9 |
7.2 |
3.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
28) |
And what if Fateh wins new legislative and
president elections, will this in your view lead to the lifting or
to tightening of the international boycott of the Palestinian
government? |
|
|
1) will lead to the
lifting of the boycott |
60.6 |
52.0 |
75.7 |
|
|
2) will lead to the
tightening of the boycott |
11.1 |
12.7 |
8.3 |
|
|
3) conditions will
stay as they are today |
23.6 |
29.9 |
12.5 |
|
|
4) DK/NA |
4.7 |
5.4 |
3.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
29) |
And what about the unity between the West
Bank and the Gaza Strip? Will a Fateh victory in the next
legislative and presidential elections lead to consolidation of
unity between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip or will it lead to
consolidating the split between the two areas? |
|
|
1) will lead to
consolidation of WBGS unity |
36.6 |
30.5 |
47.1 |
|
|
2) will lead to
consolidation of WBGS split |
31.1 |
31.5 |
30.4 |
|
|
3) conditions of
WBGS will stay as they are today |
25.9 |
31.2 |
16.8 |
|
|
4) DK/NA |
6.4 |
6.8 |
5.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
30) |
In your view who is responsible for the
continued split of the PA between Gaza and the West Bank, Fateh or
Hamas? |
|
|
1) Hamas |
14.5 |
12.5 |
17.9 |
|
|
2) Fateh |
15.0 |
15.9 |
13.5 |
|
|
3) both |
59.2 |
57.5 |
62.1 |
|
|
4) None of them |
4.2 |
5.7 |
1.6 |
|
|
5) others, specify |
4.9 |
6.0 |
3.1 |
|
|
6) DK/NA |
2.2 |
2.4 |
1.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
31) |
There is a proposal that after the
establishment of an independent Palestinian state and the settlemnet
of all issues in dispute, including the refugees and Jerusalem
issues, there will be a mutual recognition of Israel as the state of
the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinians
people. Do you agree or disagree to this proposal? |
|
|
1) Definitely agree |
5.6 |
5.1 |
6.7 |
|
|
2) agree |
44.3 |
46.4 |
40.4 |
|
|
3) disagree |
36.9 |
36.1 |
38.2 |
|
|
4) definitely disagree |
10.6 |
9.8 |
12.1 |
|
|
5) DK/NA |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
32) |
Now 40 years after the Israeli occupation of
the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, what in your view are the chances
for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state next to
the state of Israel in the next five years? Are they high, medium,
low, or none existent? |
|
|
1) None existent |
36.9 |
39.6 |
32.2 |
|
|
2) Low |
35.8 |
33.6 |
39.7 |
|
|
3) Medium |
20.2 |
20.7 |
19.4 |
|
|
4) High |
3.8 |
3.2 |
4.7 |
|
|
5) DK/NA |
3.3 |
2.9 |
4.0 |
|
|
|
33)
|
According to the Saudi plan, Israel will
retreat from all territories occupied in 1967 including Gaza the
West Bank, Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, and a Palestinian state
will be established. The refugees problem will be resolved through
negotiation in a just and agreed upon manner and in accordance with
UN resolution 194 which allows return of refugees to Israel and
compensation. In return, all Arab states will recognize Israel and
its right to secure borders, will sign peace treaties with her and
establish normal diplomatic relations. Do you agree or disagree to
this plan? |
|
|
1)
Certainly agree |
6.0 |
5.5 |
6.9 |
|
|
2)
agree |
52.0 |
49.2 |
57.0 |
|
|
3)
disagree |
29.1 |
32.6 |
23.1 |
|
|
4)
Certainly disagree |
9.6 |
8.8 |
11.0 |
|
|
5)
DK/NA |
3.2 |
3.8 |
2.1 |
|
|
|
34) |
Concerning armed attacks against Israeli
civilians inside Israel, I…. |
|
|
1) Strongly support |
16.4 |
11.8 |
24.5 |
|
|
2) Support |
37.8 |
35.1 |
42.4 |
|
|
3) Oppose |
34.9 |
39.6 |
26.7 |
|
|
4) Strongly oppose |
7.8 |
9.5 |
4.9 |
|
|
5) DK/NA |
3.1 |
4.0 |
1.5 |
|
|
|
|
35) |
What do you expect to happen between
Palestinians and Israelis now
following the Israeli military attack in Gaza? |
|
|
1)
Negotiations will resume soon enough and armed confrontations will
stop |
10.9 |
11.0 |
10.8 |
|
|
2)
Negotiations will resume but some armed attacks will continue |
49.8 |
48.5 |
52.1 |
|
|
3)
Armed confrontations will not stop and the two sides will not return
to negotiations |
33.3 |
34.5 |
31.1 |
|
|
4)
DK/NA |
6.0 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
|
36) |
Some people think there is on difference
between the various parties in Israel as right wing parties (such as
Likud, Israel Beitainu, and Shas) and center and left (such as
Kadima, Labor, and Mertez) supported the attack against Gaza; but
others think there are differences as the center and left support
the two state solution while the right opposes it. What about you?
Do you see a difference between these trends? |
|
|
1)
certainly there is |
4.1 |
5.4 |
1.8 |
|
|
2)
there is |
22.3 |
21.7 |
23.4 |
|
|
3)
there is no difference |
43.5 |
42.2 |
45.9 |
|
|
4)
certainly there is no difference |
26.1 |
26.1 |
26.1 |
|
|
5)
DK/NA |
3.9 |
4.5 |
2.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
37) |
Given the outcome of the most recent Israeli
elections, what are your expectations regarding the peace process?
For example, do you think that negotiations will now be more
successful in ending settlement exapansion and bringing peace or
will settlemnets expand and peace efforts fail? |
|
|
1) expect negotiations to succeed
in ending settlement expansion and bringing peace |
7.2 |
6.5 |
8.5 |
|
|
2) expect increase in settlement
expansion and failure of peace efforts |
61.5 |
60.8 |
62.8 |
|
|
3) expect conditions to stay are
they are today |
27.9 |
29.8 |
24.6 |
|
|
4) DK/NA |
3.4 |
3.0 |
4.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
38) |
Given your expectations about the peace
process, do you support or oppose retrun to Palestinian-Israeli
negotiations before Israel freezes settlement activities? |
|
|
1) certainly support |
2.4 |
2.2 |
2.7 |
|
|
2) support |
35.1 |
32.5 |
39.5 |
|
|
3) oppose |
45.1 |
48.0 |
40.1 |
|
|
4) certainly oppose |
12.8 |
12.7 |
13.0 |
|
|
5) DK/NA |
4.7 |
4.6 |
4.7 |
|
|
|
|
39) |
Which of the following political parties do
you support? |
|
|
1) PPP |
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
|
|
2) PFLP |
4.5 |
4.3 |
4.7 |
|
|
3) Fateh |
30.8 |
27.1 |
37.2 |
|
|
4) Hamas |
23.0 |
21.9 |
25.0 |
|
|
5) DFLP |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
|
|
6) Islamic Jihad |
2.1 |
1.5 |
3.2 |
|
|
7) Fida |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
8) National Initiative (Mubadara) |
1.2 |
1.6 |
0.7 |
|
|
9) Independent Islamists |
2.6 |
2.4 |
3.0 |
|
|
10) Independent Nationalists |
4.1 |
5.2 |
2.3 |
|
|
11) None of the above |
28.7 |
32.8 |
21.6 |
|
|
12) Other, specify |
1.6 |
1.8 |
1.2 |
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