Feb 23, 2009, 11:57 AM | by Dave Karger
Categories: Best Picture
So the 81st Annual Academy Award winners turned out to be a fairly predictable lot. My colleague Thom Geier and I scored a decent 20 for 24 in our predictions. The biggest surprise for me had to be Departures' win for Best Foreign Language Film (though the very sharp Kris Tapley at In Contention and Tom O'Neil at Gold Derby called it). In the end, Slumdog Millionaire successfully completed its unprecedented awards sweep, Harvey Weinstein boasted both female acting winners, and Frost/Nixon became the first Best Picture nominee to go home empty-handed in three years.
It's been a blast putting this blog together for the past five months. Thanks to you all for the lively and smart debate on the comment boards. Let's do this again in the fall!
Feb 19, 2009, 08:43 PM | by Dave Karger
Categories: Best Picture
UPDATE: From Academy spokesperson Leslie Unger: ''The
document is a complete fraud. PricewaterhouseCoopers is still counting
the ballots and there are only two people there who will know the
complete list of winners in advance of the envelopes being opened
during the ceremony. The Academy's president is not advised of the
winners in advance and no such list is created with his name on it.''
ORIGINAL POST: Has everyone seen the purported list of Oscar winners that's floating around online? If the memo, purportedly from AMPAS President Sid Ganis, is real, the Academy board must be having a collective heart attack right now. But if you ask me it's a beautifully crafted fake. Many of the supposed victors are expected: Slumdog Millionaire, Kate Winslet, and Heath Ledger. But look at some of the other winners: Milk for editing? In Bruges for Original Screenplay? Those really seem like major stretches. And does Ganis even find out who the winners are beforehand? And could all the ballots really have been counted by now? I guess we'll find out in a few days whether it's valid or not. Selfishly, I'm praying it's a hoax—otherwise EW only predicted 10 out of 24 winners correct.
Most OscarWatchers considered Amy Adams merely the lucky winner of the fifth Best Supporting Actress slot after the Academy placed Kate Winslet in the lead-actress race for The Reader. (I, for one, didn't predict an Oscar nod for her, though I was glad she got it.) But in the weeks since the nominations were announced, I've been feeling a shift in support towards the immensely likable star. Just last night, another Academy member told me he voted for her. So now I'm trying to figure out what it all means in the supporting actress race. Does it indicate stronger support than expected for Doubt and a possible win for Viola Davis (or even Adams?). Or will Adams' late surge result, Nader-style, in a down-the-middle Doubt split? If that's the case, could my Penélope Cruz prediction end up coming true? Whatever happens on Sunday, I doubt this is Amy Adams' last invitation to the Academy Awards.
Usually the Spirit Awards are a breeze to predict: Pick the indie contenders who don't a have snowball's chance in the Oscar race and you're home free. But with so many crowded races, guessing this year's Spirit winners is tougher than predicting the Oscars. With the ceremony set for this Saturday, I'll give it a try anyway.
Feature
Ballast
Frozen River
Rachel Getting Married
Wendy and Lucy
The Wrestler
I could literally see any of these five winning. I'm thinking last year's Sundance victor, Frozen River, may have the edge.
Director
Ramin Bahrani, Chop Shop
Jonathan Demme, Rachel Getting Married
Lance Hammer, Ballast
Courtney Hunt, Frozen River
Tom McCarthy, The Visitor
With Hunt a strong candidate in the First Screenplay race, voters might spread the wealth and reward Demme here.
Male Lead
Javier Bardem, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Sean Penn, Milk
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
It's a race between the three Oscar nominees (Jenkins, Penn, and Rourke). Since Milk didn't fare as well overall, expect Rourke to win this match.
Female Lead
Summer Bishil, Towelhead
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Tarra Riggs, Ballast
Michelle Williams, Wendy and Lucy
Clearly this is Hathaway vs. Leo. I say Leo by a hair.
Supporting Male
James Franco, Milk
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Charlie McDermott, Frozen River
JimMyron Ross, Ballast
Haaz Sleiman, The Visitor
Sleiman could upset, but this could be a win for Milk. Go with Franco.
Supporting Female
Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Rosie Perez, The Take
Misty Upham, Frozen River
Debra Winger, Rachel Getting Married
A Rachel vote split between DeWitt and Winger bodes well for Cruz.
Screenplay
Woody Allen, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Anna Boden & Ryan Fleck, Sugar
Charlie Kaufman, Synecdoche, New York
Howard A. Rodman, Savage Grace
Christopher Zalla, Sangre De Mi Sangre
Kaufman's supremely bizarre Synecdoche has Spirit Award written all over it.
First Screenplay
Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Lance Hammer, Ballast
Courtney Hunt, Frozen River
Jonathan Levine, The Wackness
Jenny Lumet, Rachel Getting Married
Black may emerge victorious on Sunday, but Hunt should be the queen of the indies.
One of the most fun items I posted this year was my list of the top possible surprises of the Oscar nominations, some of which ended up coming true (or half-true). With the Academy Awards ceremony now just days away, here are my 10 possible shockers that could take place this Sunday.
1. Slumdog Millionaire picks up the Best Sound Editing and Best Sound Mixing prizes, winning all nine categories in which it’s nominated.
2. Doubt’s Viola Davis avoids vote splitting with costar Amy Adams and tops Penélope Cruz for Best Supporting Actress.
3. The Kate vs. Meryl showdown in Best Actress ends in a loss for both, as Frozen River’s Melissa Leo pulls an Adrien Brody and comes through with the win.
4. After losing the BFCA and SAG awards to Sean Penn, Mickey Rourke finally wins his first major domestic prize (i.e. voted on by Americans) and takes home Best Actor.
5. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button gets upset in the Best Art Direction, Best Visual Effects, and Best Makeup categories and becomes the biggest Oscar loser in history, going 0 for 13.
6. David Hare’s script for The Reader steals the adapted screenplay trophy from Slumdog’s Simon Beaufoy.
7. France’s The Class wins Best Foreign Language Film over critical favorite Waltz With Bashir (my colleague Thom Geier and I are actually predicting that one).
8. WALL•E not only wins Best Animated Film but also picks up Original Screenplay and both sound prizes for a total of four Oscars.
9. The Dark Knight wins Best Supporting Actor but otherwise goes home empty-handed.
10. Telecast producers Bill Condon and Laurence Mark actually manage to keep the ceremony under three hours. (You can do it, guys!)
Slumdog Millionaire is now on a completely unprecedented awards-season streak, as it picked up wins from four guilds over the weekend: the Art Directors Guild (ADG) and Cinema Audio Society (CAS) on Saturday, and the American Cinema Editors (ACE) and the American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) on Sunday. Add to that its victories at the BAFTAs, Golden Globes, Producers Guild, Directors Guild, Writers Guild, Broadcast Critics, and SAG awards and you have a completely unheard-of pre-Oscar sweep. (For example, Chicago and The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King both lost the WGA prize; American Beauty didn't win the ACE, ADG, or CAS; Forrest Gump lost the ASC and BAFTA trophies; and even Schindler's List couldn't pick up the ASC or CAS prizes.) With Oscar ballots due tomorrow, it will take nothing short of a miracle for any of the four other Best Picture nominees to close this gap. The full lists of winners are below.
Art Directors Guild
Period Film: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Fantasy Film: The Dark Knight
Contemporary Film: Slumdog Millionaire
Cinema Audio Society
Slumdog Millionaire
American Cinema Editors
Dramatic Film: Slumdog Millionaire
Comedic Film: WALL•E
American Society of Cinematogaphers
Slumdog Millionaire
Three more guild award ceremonies take place this weekend: The Art Directors Guild (ADG) and Cinema Audio Society (CAS) on Saturday, and the American Cinema Editors (ACE) on Sunday. Last year, this particular trio of guilds didn't match the Academy Awards too well: Only the ACE recognized an eventual Oscar winner, The Bourne Ultimatum. But the CAS and ADG did honor No Country for Old Men, which may not have picked up corresponding Oscars for sound or art direction but did take home Best Picture. All the nominees are below; I expect Slumdog Millionaire and WALL•E to win the ACE "Eddie" awards, The Dark Knight to take home the CAS prize, and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, and Slumdog to pick up the ADG trophies.
Association of Cinema Editors
Dramatic Films
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Comedic Films
In Bruges
Mamma Mia!
Tropic Thunder
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
WALL•E
Cinema Audio Society
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Quantum of Solace
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL•E
Art Directors Guild
Period Films
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Fantasy Films
The Dark Knight
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Iron Man
The Spiderwick Chronicles
WALL•E
Contemporary Films
Burn After Reading
Gran Torino
Quantum of Solace
Slumdog Millionaire
The Wrestler
The awards gods don't seem to be smiling on me this year. First, I publish my Oscar nomination predictions, which end up matching perfectly with the Producers Guild and Directors Guild nominees but naturally miss a few of the eventual Academy Award honorees. Then I arrive at my Oscar-winner guesses...which almost completely match with this weekend's BAFTA winners. So, with my predictions hitting newsstands today, I ask you: What have I (and my intrepid colleague Thom Geier, who handles all the documentary and shorts races) gotten wrong? Let us have it.
Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Director, Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Actor: Sean Penn, Milk
Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Supporting Actress: Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Original Screenplay: Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Adapted Screenplay: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Animated Film: Wall-E
Foreign-Language Film: The Class
Documentary: Man On Wire
Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire
Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Costume Design: The Duchess
Makeup: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Song: "Jai Ho," Slumdog Millionaire
Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Sound: The Dark Knight
Sound Mixing: The Dark Knight
Short: Spielzugland (Toyland)
Animated Short: Presto
Documentary Short: The Witness: From the Balcony of Room 306
Two of the closest major races at the Oscars this year -- Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress -- have something very intriguing in common: They've both become competitions between Harvey Weinstein and the company he used to run, Miramax. In the lead-actress race, the top two contenders are The Reader's Kate Winslet (a Weinstein Co. release) and Doubt's Meryl Streep (a Miramax film), while in supporting actress, Vicky Cristina Barcelona's Penélope Cruz (Weinstein Co.) and Doubt's Viola Davis (Miramax) have the best shot at a win.
In a year when Weinstein -- who had an 11-year run of consecutive Best Picture nominees while at Miramax but had been absent from the big dance the last few years -- is surprisingly back in the race, it's rich that his two best chances at Oscar victories are against his old company. Since Weinstein's departure in 2005, "the new Miramax" is a much different place, run by the unflappable, understated Daniel Battsek. But that's not to say Battsek's relative calm hasn't produced Academy results: He and his team shepherded Helen Mirren to a Best Actress win for The Queen in 2007 and took home Best Picture last year with No Country for Old Men. This year they've had a rougher go: After dominating the critics' awards, Happy-Go-Lucky's Sally Hawkins was shut out of the Oscar race, while five-time nominee Doubt failed to score a Best Picture nod.
For the sake of equality, I'm hoping Weinstein and Miramax each take home one female-acting prize next Sunday. But my hunch is that Harvey might just turn out to be a double winner.
I first saw The Reader in the middle of November and thought it was, well, fine. I certainly liked and respected the film, but I felt that it was something of a flatline, without any sufficiently gut-punching moments (for the viewer, not the characters) to make it truly memorable. I specifically was looking for Ralph Fiennes, playing a man who unknowingly had an affair with a Nazi guard as a teenager, to have a killer "Oscar scene" near the end of the film, which he doesn't.
This past weekend, I decided to give The Reader a second chance. It's fascinating to learn which films grow on you with repeat viewings and which don't. This year, I enjoyed Slumdog Millionaire and Milk more when I watched them again, while my love for Frost/Nixon faded a bit the second time. (And I simply don't have enough time to sit through Benjamin Button again.) With The Reader, though, the difference was the most dramatic. This time, I found myself quite moved by it, particularly during Kate Winslet's centerpiece courtroom scene in which the film's surprising plot twist is revealed. By the end, I was a wreck.
Since then I've been asking myself what was different the second time. Did I miss something when I first watched it? Am I simply being swayed by the five Oscar nominations it received? I don't think so, but I do believe my shifting opinion has to do with the awards strategy for the film. Back in November, the Weinstein Co. was campaigning Winslet for Best Supporting Actress, meaning there were no lead-acting candidates from the film. So I watched it as if it were more of an ensemble piece, which it clearly isn't. With Winslet now firmly in my mind as a Best Actress contender, her performance really jumped out at me as the true anchor of the film. Though I remain a huge Revolutionary Road fan, I am in awe of what she was able to pull off in The Reader.
So do I suddenly think The Reader has a shot to top Slumdog Millionaire for Best Picture? Not a chance. But I'm more convinced than ever that Winslet will win Best Actress next Sunday. And if the actress was at all disappointed that she didn't get nominated for her husband's film (it seemed like it when she declined to do any interviews on nomination day), she's certainly on board with her current campaign: She's set to appear at a luncheon honoring the film in New York tomorrow. It's been a punishing awards season for Winslet, but I'm feeling like it's going to pay off in the end.
