UNDEF Funding for Civil Society

November 6th, 2009 by Jason

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Posted in Democracy Promotion, NGOs, United Nations | Comment »

Common Sense in Iran?

November 6th, 2009 by Jason

According to Al-Arabiya, the International Atomic Energy Agency has asked Iran to explain why they may have experimented with an advanced nuclear warhead design, called a “two-point implosion” device. According to a purportedly-classified IAEA document, Iran has the capability to build a nuclear weapon and was working towards a missile delivery system, but the IAEA continues to publicly declare it has no proof Iran has or once had a nuclear weapons program. In addition, IAEA officials found “nothing to be worried about” during their inspection of the once-secret Qum nuclear facility.

Robert Dreyfuss writing in Middle East Online rebuts the argument by Ray Takeyh that the U.S. should end dialogue with Iran should the regime implement a crackdown against the opposition. Dreyfuss argues that the U.S. has reasons to negotiate on the nuclear issue regardless of our concern for human rights, suggesting “that isn’t appeasement […] It’s just common sense.” Given that opposition leaders are now bashing President Ahmadinejad for seeking a deal, Dreyfuss contends that the U.S. should not “try to game Iranian internal politics.”

While leading Friday prayers, hard-liner Ahmad Khatami condemned Wednesday’s anti-regime protests, implying the protesters adhere to “Americanized Islam.” Khatami also accused the Obama administration of funding $50 million to plot an overthrow of the regime. Another government official, Alaedin Boroujerdi, accused Voice of America of feeding slogans to the opposition. The speeches were followed by chants of “Death to America.”

Finally, an economic correspondent for the Tehran Bureau explores Ahmadinejad’s desire to reduce subsidies within three years. According to the article, Ahmadinejad hopes to hurt the “large number of Iranian households with fixed income, particularly clerks, teachers, and government employees - the political backbone of the ‘Green’ reformist movement.”

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Posted in Human Rights, Iran, Oil, US foreign policy, United Nations | Comment »

A One-man Protest in Lebanon

November 6th, 2009 by Zack

As Hezbollah denies any connection to an Iranian cargo ship of weapons seized by Israel, The Daily Star is reporting Lebanese Speaker Nabih Berri is threatening a solo, open-ended sit-in until the cabinet formation deadlock is resolved.  Sourcing are saying that Berri is laying out three possible reconciliation strategies:  re-initiating the formal process of National Dialogue sessions, to convene Parliament to deliberate the cabinet issue, or conduct a presumably one-man sit-in at Nijmeh Square to express his displeasure with the impasse, until a solution is reached.  The deadlock has centered on the offer by Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri to FPM leader MP Michel Aoun to retain the Telecommunications and Energy Ministries as part of his Reform and Change bloc’s share.

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Posted in Elections, Hezbollah, Lebanon | Comment »

Labor Strike at Gulf Air

November 6th, 2009 by Zack

The Daily Star is reporting that 300 employees of Bahrain’s state-owned Gulf Air staged an hour-long sit in to protest job cuts and their lack of decision making power in the flailing airline’s restructuring plans.  Union head Mustafa al-Tooq threatened a full strike if he did not meet with Gulf Air management within the week. The article comments that, “labor action is rare in the Gulf Arab region, where the workforce largely consists of poorly paid Asian workers who are at the whim of their employers.”

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Posted in Bahrain, Reform | Comment »

Abbas Reactions

November 6th, 2009 by Zack

While the Israeli government has taken no official stance about Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas‘ decision not to run for reelection (see our post), Middle East Online is reporting that Israeli leaders regret his departure.  The report notes that a senior Israeli official said that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sees Abbas “as a partner for peace” and that Shimon Peres attempted to talk Abbas out of his decision several days ago.  Juan Cole has reprinted an editorial from ‘Amman Al-Ra’y arguing that Abbas’ role is insignificant as long as settlements expansion is not frozen in Jerusalem. In addition, he includes a statement from PLO negotiator Saeb Erekat who demanded that the 2008 negotiations resume immediately and saying that Abbas is an “ordinary man” expressing his frustration.

The Guardian has published an editorial arguing that Abbas’ resignation will shake the foundation of U.S. and Quartet strategy, which “is predicated on the assumption that Palestinians can be divided into “good” West Bankers and “bad” Gazans.”  The editors feel that this decision paves the way for popular leader Marwan Barghouti to run for president, whose ascension would prove problematic for the region’s “old guard.”  Ultimately, the U.S. needs to remain hands off in this situation and allow Palestinians to follow their own democratic processes.

Marc Lynch added to his post from last week debating the realities of an Abbas resignation saying that this could positively shake up the stalled negotiations.  He notes that there have been three basic Arab responses to the announcement, “the first thinks he’s bluffing, attempting to leverage his weakness into pressure on the U.S. and Israel; the second thinks it’s irrelevant, because the elections will not actually be held in January; and the third is cheering his  departure, and hoping that it will lead to a collective admission that the PA’s strategy has failed.”  For Lynch, this incident highlights the lack of American strategy and intra-Palestinian understanding who hopes that this will lead to the necessary realization that “there’s no viable path forward which doesn’t include alleviating the blockade of Gaza and reunifying it politically with the West Bank, and no serious prospect that the institutions of the Palestinian Authority can be built up along Salam Fayyad’s model without also dealing seriously with the political horizon of peace talks aimed at rapidly achieving a two state solution.”

Meanwhile, al Arabiya is reportingthat Hamas, Fatah and Israel are working together to allow a group of Gazans to receive swine flu vaccinations and to travel for the hajj.  One of the pilgrims, Sami Abdallah, 34, said he hoped this Fatah-Hamas cooperation could serve as a model for healing a the Palestinian national movement.

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Posted in Diplomacy, Elections, Hamas, Israel, Mideast Peace Plan, Palestine, Political Parties, US foreign policy | Comment »

Egypt’s Trappings of Democracy

November 6th, 2009 by Jason

Rannie Amiri writes in The Middle East Online that “it is always amusing to see how authoritarian regimes endow themselves with the trappings of democracy - a  party, parliament, ‘elections’ as if they somehow confer legitimacy to otherwise undemocratic governance.” Specifically, President Hosni Mubarak  has turned Egypt into the “epitome of a police state.” Amiri quotes Egyptian dissident Saad Eddin Ibrahim, who explained in 2007 that “any real or potential competitors, especially ones with charisma and name recognition, are to be defamed, jailed, driven from the country or otherwise eliminated.” Amiri predicts that “just as with King Abdullah of Jordan, Bashar Assad of Syria, and the current grooming of Libya’s Saif Ghaddafi, it will be a dictator’s son who assumes power, a ‘candidacy’ endorsed by Washington, and one in which the Egyptian people, regrettably, will have very little say.”

Responding to the recent audit of USAID’s democracy and governance assistance to Egypt, David Kenner asserts “it is hypocritical for the United States to preach the virtues of democracy while still devoting most of its funds to efforts which have proven ineffective.” He concludes, “U.S. policymakers know perfectly well how to design more effective programs in Egypt. They should do it.”

Finally, Egypt’s Prosecutor General ordered the release of three members of the April 6 Youth movement after their arrest earlier in the day. Police had claimed Amr Osama, Mohamed Adel and Amr Ezz were”propogating [sic] false news, disrupting public security and the possession of printed material with the intention of distributing it without a permit” after the trio were caught writing anti-Gamal Mubarak graffiti. Prior to their release, April 6 released a statement declaring “the youth will not give up in the face of the NDP’s deception and suppression of the masses; we will continue to fight peacefully.”

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Posted in Democracy Promotion, Egypt, Elections, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Human Rights, NGOs, Political Parties, US foreign policy | Comment »

Iraq Election Law Stalls

November 5th, 2009 by Zack

The Huffington Post is reporting that the Iraqi Council of Representatives ended their session today without approving a new election law. According to the article, “the head of Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission, Faraj al-Haidari, earlier this week warned lawmakers that if they did not have an election deal passed by the end of the day Thursday, it would be impossible to carry out the election on January 16.”  The commission will meet later Thursday to decide how to proceed.

IraqPundit has written a piece discussing the sense in Iraq that all of Iraq’s neighbors, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Qatar, are meddling in Iraqi political affairs at the expense of “decent” candidates.  The Economist argues that despite all of this political backbiting Iraq is engaging in serious democracy and moving away from sectarianism.  The article explains that out of the six main electoral blocks, the “three that look most genuinely post-sectarian may well be the strongest.” The remaining three “sport fig-leaves of diversity but are tainted with past sectarian violence.”  The article goes on to analyze these new blocs and the shifting tensions within the country.

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Posted in Elections, Freedom, Iraq, Kurds, Political Parties, Sectarianism, Secularism | Comment »

The Green Wave Surges

November 5th, 2009 by Jason

Reports continue to filter in about yesterday’s protests on the anniversary of the American embassy takeover in 1979. Juan Cole suggests that, by protesting on this day, the opposition are “implicitly likening the government of Khamenei to that of the shah […] his regime is not less internally repressive.” NiacINsight has posted comprehensive summaries of the day’s events by the opposition website Green Freedom Wave (translated by the New York Times Company).

In addition to the protesters who were beaten by a baton-wielding militia, at least 12 people were arrested, including a university student, an AFP reporter and several members of the Office for Consolidating Unity (Tahkim Vahdat) as reported by Tehran Bureau. In addition, the reform cleric Mehdi Karroubi joined the protests, but was forced to retreat after a teargas attack sent his bodyguard to the hospital.

Read the rest of this entry »

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Posted in Congress, Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Elections, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Human Rights, Iran, Islam and Democracy, Journalism, Judiciary, Middle Eastern Media, NGOs, Political Parties, Public Opinion, US foreign policy, US politics, sanctions | 1 Comment »

Abbas Will Not Seek Reelection

November 5th, 2009 by Zack

The LA Times and Al Arabiya are reporting that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will not seek reelection in the planned January elections.  He has scheduled a televised speech for this evening.  Nabil Shaath, a senior Fatah official, said Abbas, despite President Obama’s assurances, is disillusioned over the Obama administration’s inability to secure a halt to Israel’s expansion of Jewish settlements into the land the Palestinians want for a future state.  Abbas had called for the January election last month after failing to reach a unity deal with Hamas.

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Posted in Diplomacy, Elections, Mideast Peace Plan, Palestine | 1 Comment »

Debating Tribalism and Withdrawal in Afghanistan

November 5th, 2009 by Zack

Aryn Baker has written an article in Time asking if the U.S. can win in a Karzai-led Afghanistan and discusses the debate over the eventual success of the Obama administration’s attempts to push President Karzai into reform.

In the debate over troops levels and U.S. strategy there have been several calls to withdraw and several more to refocus efforts towards Afghan tribes.  Charles V. Peña with National Interest Online and Kathleen Troia “KT” McFarland of Fox News both write that the U.S. should withdraw from Afghanistan immediately and “leave Afghanistan to the Afghans.”   Charles A. Kupchan and Steven Simon at the Council on Foreign Relations argue that the U.S. should scale back the mission in Afghanistan by focusing on consolidating control in strategically important locations from which the military can conduct COIN missions and build the Afghan police and army.  Adam Garfinkle writes in Middle East Strategy at Harvard that given General McChrystal’s plan is not large enough to win a political agreement and end the war within 24 months, the U.S. must choose between Iran and Afghanistan.   He argues that President Obama must withdraw from Afghanistan in oder to not lose face militarily in front of the Iranians, which would embolden them to build a nuclear weapon and destabilize Iraqi security and the region as a whole.

The NY Times lays out the arguments for focusing military efforts on strengthening the role of tribes.  Some proponents include Steven Pressfield and Maj. Jim Gant who argue that Afghan tribes initially pushed out the Taliban and that the U.S. should redeploy special forces to maintain security in conjunction with tribal groups.  Patrick Porter, however, warns that tribalism is very complicated and that focusing on a cultural war, rather than focusing on technological supremacy to defeat the Taliban, is too broad a perspective while the Taliban are blurring the ideas of culture.

These debates come on the heels of Taliban attack on a U.N. guesthouse in Kabul, forcing the U.N. to relocate 600 employees until safer compounds can be established. 

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Posted in Afghanistan, Diplomacy, Elections, Military, Reform, Taliban, US foreign policy | Comment »

Tensions Persist in Lebanon

November 5th, 2009 by Zack

Tensions continue over the cabinet-forming process as FPM leader Michel Aoun denounced a statement from Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir saying that the minority and majority could not coexist in the same cabinet and that the “weapons” issue with Hezbollah needs to be discussed openly.  Aoun responded by accusing Sfeir of “protecting corrupt people” and “standing by corruption.” The Daily Star is also reporting on the rivalry between March 8 and March 14 groups during Universite Saint Joseph (USJ) student elections and that the U.N. is pressuring Lebanon and other countries to uphold their Millennium Development Goals.

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Posted in Elections, Hezbollah, Lebanon, Political Parties, Reform | Comment »

Ayman Nour Travel Ban

November 5th, 2009 by Zack

Reuters is reporting that Egyptian authorities have barred dissident leader Ayman Nour from travelling to the United States.  Responding to the ban, Nour said, “This is illegal according to … the constitution, which says that all Egyptians are entitled to leave the country or emigrate whenever and wherever they desire.”  Nour wanted to take part in a conference on “the future of Egypt” organised by the Coalition of Egyptian Organisations in the United States, as well as at the Council on Foreign Relations and George Washington University’s Elliott School.  Nour recently launched a Campaign Against Presidential Succession, along with the Muslim Brotherhood and other opposition groups.

On the subject of Egyptian succession, Joseph Mayton has written a piece for the Guardian arguing that Gamal Mubarak represents the status quo: “What Egypt needs, the younger Mubarak cannot offer. He represents all that is wrong with Egyptian politics and society.”  Instead of Gamal becoming president he should work to rid Egypt of its cronyism and to create the Egyptian dream through education reform.

Lastly, The Daily News Egypt is reporting on the completion of Egypt’s first ever women’s management conference, sponsored by ExxonMobil, which brought together 23 mid-career women from the region to explore the role of women in economic change.

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Posted in Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Egypt, Elections, Muslim Brotherhood, Political Islam, Political Parties, Women | Comment »

POMED Notes: “U.S. and Iran: Between Human Rights, Diplomacy and Sanctions”

November 5th, 2009 by Jason

The National Iranian American Council (NIAC) hosted two panel discussions concerning the internal battle for human rights in Iran and American foreign policy towards Iran’s nuclear program in light of that struggle. The first panel, entitled “Internal Dynamics: Human Rights and the Battle for Iran,” included Professor Mehrzad Boroujerdi of Syracuse University, Dr. Hadi Ghaemi of the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, and Geneive Abdo of the Century Foundation. The second panel, “Assessing Obama’s Diplomacy,” was comprised of Ambassador Thomas Pickering, Greg Thielmann of the Arms Control Association, and Ambassador John Limbert. The president of NIAC, Dr. Trita Parsi, moderated the event.

To see POMED’s full notes of the event, please  click here. Or you can keep reading below the fold.

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Posted in DC Event Notes, Democracy Promotion, Elections, Events, Freedom, Human Rights, Iran, NGOs, US foreign policy, US politics, sanctions | Comment »

POMED Notes - “Wrong Way on Iran: Representative Mark Kirk”

November 5th, 2009 by Zack

The U.S. Institute of Peace hosted Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) to offer his views on how the U.S. should approach Iran on the issues of human rights and democracy.  Kirk is a member of the House Appropriations Committee and serves on its Subcommittee on State and Foreign Operations, which is responsible for determining annual U.S. foreign assistance funding.  Serving his fifth term in the House of Representatives, Kirk is the co-chair of the bipartisan Iran Working Group, sponsor of bipartisan legislation condemning Iran’s human rights violations and chief architect of the plan to restrict gasoline to Iran in response to its violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions.  The meeting was opened with an introduction from Richard Solomon, President of USIP.

See POMED’s Notes below the fold.

Click here to view a pdf version of the notes.

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Posted in DC Event Notes, Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Elections, Event Notes, Events, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Human Rights, Iran, Reform, US foreign policy, sanctions | Comment »

Pollwatching in Tunisia

November 4th, 2009 by Zack

The National Democratic Institute has released a press statement discussing efforts between the NDI and major Tunisian opposition parties to observe election processes in the recent presidential election after President Ben Ali banned international election observers.  According to the statement, “Three political parties — Ettajdid, the FDTL and the Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) — partnered with NDI as they drafted strategies for deploying over 400 party agents to observe the voting, a mandate guaranteed by the constitution.”  The pollwatching process, which met resistance from the government, helped the parties expand their visibility while shedding light on potential electoral misconduct and fraud.  The groups documented voting irregularities that will be presented in a report to national and global media outlets.

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Posted in Elections, Reform, Tunisia | Comment »

Clinton’s Final Stop in the Middle East

November 4th, 2009 by Zack

As Secretary Clinton concludes her Middle East trip, Laura Rozen reports that Clinton met with Egyptian leaders in and won seeming support for their new strategy of focusing on getting to final status talks between the Israelis and Palestinians.  Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeffrey Feltman sums up her trip saying, “the Secretary, by investing time with her Arab and Israeli counterparts and leaders, moved us forward…They [the Egyptian leadership] have moved a lot closer to our position about wanting to focus on the end game than you might have heard from Arab foreign ministers or leaders or week ago. I think this shows the power of personal diplomacy, the power of [Clinton’s] investing in these things.”

Speaking after her talks with President Mubarak, the NY Times reports that she “repeated on Wednesday that while the Obama administration rejects the legitimacy of Israeli settlement expansion, it nonetheless believes that Israeli-Palestinian negotiations should precede a permanent freeze on such construction.”  Daniel Levy argues that Clinton’s step back from a settlement freeze leaves the President’s peace plan in limbo and then goes on to evaluate the true role of settlements in the peace process. 

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Posted in Diplomacy, Egypt, Israel, Mideast Peace Plan, Palestine, Reform, US foreign policy | Comment »

Another Cabinet Setback

November 4th, 2009 by Zack

Michael Aoun, head of the Lebanese Free Patriotic Movement, has dashed hopes of national cabinet-formation breakthrough through his refusal of an offer for five seats in the next cabinet, including the Telecommunications and Energy Ministries, reports The Daily Star.  PM-designate Hariri “submitted a proposal to Aoun granting the Reform and Change bloc the Telecommunications, Energy, Culture and Tourism ministries. However, Aoun said the proposal was rejected by the FPM leader since it does not grant the Reform and Change bloc its rightful representation.”   Separately, Nabatieh MP Mohammed Raad, from Hizbullah’s Loyalty to the Resistance bloc, voiced his optimism that a solution would be found soon, but warned that a failure to form a national unity cabinet would lead to open-ended crisis.

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Posted in Elections, Lebanon, Political Islam, Political Parties | Comment »

Continuing Threats to Legitimacy

November 4th, 2009 by Zack

AFP is reporting that the Taliban have rejected the olive branch that President Karzai extended during his first press conference since being declared president for a second term.  Taliban spokesman Yousuf Ahmadi responded, “we do not attach any value to these offers of peace by Karzai as we know they are empty words…He is a puppet and his government is a puppet government. He is in no position to make such decisions or stand by them.” 

Meanwhile, former opposition candidate Abdullah Abdullah has broken his public silence to speak out against Karzai.  According to the New York Times he claims Karzai “has come to power illegally and will not be able to rein in corruption or serve as a reliable partner in the fight against the Taliban” Specifically, Abdullah contended Karzai’s government cannot bring legitimacy, cannot fight corruption [and] cannot deal with all the challenges, especially the threat of terrorism, security problems, poverty, unemployment and many others.”  Jean MacKenzie at The New Republic has written an in-depth chronicle of the competition between the two candidates, arguing that both men have gotten what they wanted from the election and that ” Karzai systematically drove out anyone who did not agree with him or who challenged his power.”

The Guardian laments that the Afghan experience has become of revolving cycle of conflict and broken democracy, leaving President Obama to cling to a “tarnished” Karzai.   The Financial Times argues that the legitimacy of Karzai’s government will still be in question should he fail to create a national unity government, root out corruption, and provide a responsive government.  David Ignatius believes that the wave of good-governance projects put forth by the West to improve Afghanistan will not be the answer: “The best message for Karzai is the truth: Unless he improves governance, the massive American effort won’t last more than another year. We can’t do it for him. For the Karzai regime, the political calculus is brutally simple: It’s reform or die.”  George Will echoes this sentiment and argues that President Obama’s success “cannot depend on America teaching Afghans to do that [elect good men]. If he is looking for a strategy that depends on legitimacy in Kabul, he is looking for a unicorn.”

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Posted in Afghanistan, Elections, Reform, Taliban, US foreign policy | Comment »

Protests in Iran on Historic Anniversary

November 4th, 2009 by Daniel

Large-scale street protests broke out in Iran today on the 30th anniversary of the occupation of the American embassy. Normally an anti-American holiday, the day was turned into an opportunity to denounce the Iranian government, with protestors chanting anti-regime slogans. Although protestors faced difficulties organizing in the face of government threats of a crackdown, there seem to be protests in cities across the country. There have also been reports of clashes between police and the protestors in and around Seven Tir Square in downtown Tehran. Scott Lucas conveys reports and rumors from the day’s protests on his blog.

As Michael Slackman points out, many of the leaders of the embassy take-over are now under attack for their anti-regime activities. One such leader, Ayatollah Montazeri, today apologized for occupying the U.S. embassy, which he called a “mistake.” Setareh Sabety reports on one female journalist in jail for supporting the reformists.

Iran’s domestic tensions seem to be delaying a deal on nuclear weapons, though Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei placed the blame on U.S. “arrogance.” Many question whether President Obama has focused on nuclear issues at the expense of support for Iranian human rights, though others like Matthew Yglesias argue conservative accusations that an opposition to economic sanctions is the same as support for the regime are unfounded. Some of the slogans protestors chanted condemned negotiations and urged Obama to support the dissidents. The White House released a statement calling on the Iranian government to fulfill its international obligations and recognizing the protestors’ calls for democracy.

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Posted in Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Freedom, Human Rights, Iran, US foreign policy | Comment »

Audit of USAID Democracy Programs in Egypt

November 4th, 2009 by Jason

Last week, the Office of Inspector General (OIG) released a comprehensive new report entitled, “Audit of USAID/Egypt’s Democracy and Governance Activities,” which evaluates the effectiveness of USAID’s democracy and governance programs in Egypt through Fiscal Year 2008

The report concludes that while USAID has designed and awarded $181 million in program activities that focus on rule of law and human rights, governance, and civil society since FY 2004, the impact has been “limited” on the ground. OIG primarily blames this slow progress on “a lack of support from the Government of Egypt.” According to the report, the Egyptian regime has “impeded implementers’ activities […] through delays and cancellations.”

However, while the audit sees direct grants to civil society as a rare bright spot, concluding that “USAID/Egypt’s Office of Democracy and Governance achieved its greatest success in its civil society direct grants program, which provided grants and cooperative agreements valued from $192,000 to $1.4 million during FY 2008.”  This is ironic, as civil society funding, including this direct grants program, was the portion of USAID funding in Egypt most severely cut (by 78%) in 2009.

The report sets forth 10 specific recommendations for USAID, none of which specifically address the problem of the Egyptian government’s lack of cooperation:

1. Develop a training program on USAID regulations for assistance recipients.

2. Develop a training program for USAID staff on democracy and governance.

3. Review USAID programs on anti-terrorism measures.

4.  Train USAID staff on anti-terrorism measures.

5.  Create a checklist to document management reviews as part of democracy and governance assessments.

6.  Let management decide the issue of cost sharing and recover cost share contributions identified as $8,493.

7. Review democracy and government agreements’ financial information to determine asses cost share contributions and establish a plan to recover outstanding contributions.

8.  Develop plan to require its technical representatives to provide certification about training participants’ noncompliance with documentation requirements

9.  Evaluate options for unused equipment.

10.  Review authorizing designation letters for its technical representatives to ensure staff has authority to manage agreements and approve payments.

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Posted in Democracy Promotion, Egypt, Foreign Aid, US foreign policy | 1 Comment »