Project on Middle East Democracy

Project on Middle East Democracy
The POMED Wire Archives


Category: Kurds

Iraq: A Critical Year Ahead

December 22nd, 2009 by Jason

Kenneth Pollack warns that “while [Iraq] has made tremendous progress in both the security and political realms, all of those gains are fragile and could evaporate quickly if strained.”  Pollack argues “the mistake we are in danger of making in Iraq is that as our military steps back, our civilians are not always stepping up.” If Iraqis begin to question our resolve, then ordinary Iraqis will have no choice but to support militias who might protect them in what they perceive as an impending civil war.

Fareed Zakaria also warns against forgetting the war in Iraq, contending that while the surge was a military success, Iraq has yet to resolve its fundamental political differences that preclude a stable future.  Therefore, the Obama administration should maximize this opportunity to realize Iraq’s potential as an “extraordinary model for the Arab world.” While more pessimistic than Zakaria, Andrew Sullivan agrees this year will be “critical” in determining the ultimate success or failure of the war in Iraq.

John Hannah responds to the Iranian incursion into Iraqi territory. He argues that the incident proves that the Iraqi government is increasingly confident in protecting its sovereignty and Iraq has the potential to emerge as a “central pillar” in America’s struggle against violent Islamist extremism. Given the “flaccid U.S. response” to the incident, Hannah urges to “do far more to support our Iraqi friends.”  While the incident has since died down, George Friedman argues Iran showed it might not wait for the U.S. to initiate a conflict. Now that Prime Minister Maliki has proven he is not an Iranian puppet but an Iraqi patriot, Hussain Abdul-Hussain argues the Gulf countries should “embrace a neighbor currently emerging from years of tyranny followed by civil strife.”

Finally, the AP reports a suicide bomber in northern Iraq has killed a city council chief, a member of the Turkmen minority affiliated with the Sunni Iraqi Islamic Party.


Posted in Democracy Promotion, Elections, Freedom, Iraq, Kurds, Military, Oil, Political Parties, Sectarianism, Terrorism, US foreign policy | Comment »

Iraq: Iranian Troops Enter Contested Oil Field

December 18th, 2009 by Jason

Iraq officials have confirmed that Iranian soldiers have entered Iraqi territory and claimed an oilfield whose ownership is disputed by Iran. A U.S. military spokesman stated “there has been no violence related to this incident and we trust this will be resolved through peaceful diplomacy between the governments of Iraq and Iran.”

During a trip to Iraq, Admiral Mullen affirmed that the Iraq drawdown will proceed as scheduled, despite delayed elections and a recent spike in bombings.  Meanwhile, Iraqi forces are on alert after threats of violence during the coming Christmas holiday.

IraqPundit relays a conversation he had with laborers from Sadr City who expressed their discontent with Moktada al-Sadr as well as the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council. Instead, they plan to vote for Nouri al-Maliki “because he is not an extremist.” At the same time, IraqPundit reveals that many “Iraqis are disappointed in al-Maliki because he has presided over an extremely corrupt government, and he has failed to prevent terror attacks.”

The New York Times editorial staff warns that “the bitter discord between Iraq’s Kurdish regional government and the Shiite-Arab dominated central government - over land, oil and the power of the central government - is the most dangerous fault line in Iraq today.” Therefore, the situation calls for “deft and sustained American involvement.”

Finally, Peter Galbraith has written a statement clarifying his activities in Kurdistan concerning his role in advising the formation of the constitution and the negotiation of oil deals.


Posted in Afghanistan, Diplomacy, Elections, Iraq, Kurds, Legislation, Military, Oil, Political Parties, Public Opinion, Sectarianism, Secularism, Terrorism, US foreign policy, United Nations | Comment »

Turkey: Kurds Reconsider Resignations

December 18th, 2009 by Jason

Reuters reports that the Turkish government announced it will continue as planned with reforms expanding Kurdish rights despite a court ruling that banned (see previous post) the Democratic Society Party (DTP). According to Interior Minister Besir Atalay, “the Kurdish initiative will continue with determination, the necessary regulations will be accelerated.”

Nonetheless, Christian Science Monitor wonders whether the ban on the DTP and subsequent violent protests will undermine reform efforts.  According to Dilek Kurban of the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV), the ban “has made it increasingly difficult for Kurds to see a space for themselves in legitimate political life in Turkey.”

Meanwhile, according to al-Jazeera,  a group of DTP politicians have reconsidered their resignation from parliament. According to DTP leader Ahmet Turk, “this decision is a clear demonstration that we have faith in democracy […] and that we advocate peace and not violence.” It is reported that their decision came after PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, currently imprisoned, sent a message through his lawyers urging them to not abandon the political process. The DTP members will now join the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) instead of serving as independents.


Posted in Freedom, Human Rights, Judiciary, Kurds, NGOs, PKK, Protests, Reform, Turkey | Comment »

Turkey: Protests Turn Deadly

December 16th, 2009 by Zack

AFP reports that two people were shot dead during a Kurdish demonstration in Southeast Turkey on the fifth day of protests since the the largest Kurdish party, the Democratic Society Party (DTP), was banned by the constitutional court.  The protesters were shot by a shopkeeper who fired into the crowd after his shop windows were broken and his vehicle torched.  The article notes, “Closing shops is a traditional Kurdish protest method against the state and shopkeepers who resist are said to come under pressure from militant Kurds.”  DTP has said its lawmakers will resign in protest, but it is unlikely that the ruling AKP will support such a design, thereby blocking the absolute majority needed for parliament to approve a resignation.

At the same time, the NY Times reports on warming ties between Syria and Turkey that extends beyond an economic relationship into cultural and political dimensions.  The new ties have emboldened Syria to “hedge its bets” by spurning previous commitments to the West as the country’s regional stature grows.  Joshua Landis comments that many of Turkey’s neighbors are taking a page from the country’s  “Zero Crescents, Zero Axises, and Zero problems with neighbors” foreign policy handbook, which Landis describes as the “perfect anti-Bush foreign policy.”

Foreign Policy notes that Turkish Ambassador Nabi Sensoy was fired after Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s U.S. visit because the ambassador refused to ask that the Turkish foreign minister be included in Erdogan’s meeting with President Obama on account that the minister’s counterpart Secretary Clinton would not be in attendance.


Posted in Diplomacy, Kurds, Political Parties, Protests, Turkey | 1 Comment »

Turkey: Subtle Shifts and Kurdish Tension

December 14th, 2009 by Zack

Claude Salhani comments that Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent condemnation of Israeli action in Gaza and the AKP’s shift away from Euro-centric foreign policies “come as no surprise” in light of Europe’s continued position of stringing along E.U. accession.  For Salhani, this shift is eroding Turkey’s viability as a partner to negotiate a Middle East peace plan.

David Kenner at Foreign Policy reiterates Erdogan’s resentment towards the E.U. in a speech he gave at SAIS.  At the same time, the article sees a genuine admiration for President Obama by Erdogan for his ability to adapt quickly to Turkish dynamics.

Michael Allen writes about Erdogan’s assertion that Turkish policy is not undergoing a “reorientation from the democratic West to Eurasian and Middle East states.”  At a meeting in Washington, Erdogan downplayed reports of attacks on press freedom.  However, Allen goes on to cite recent commentary that illustrate Erdogan’s inability to tolerate criticism, his support for the Iranian elections as democratic, and the sense that Turkey has lost much of its democratic momentum.

BitterLemons-International has released its latest edition discussing the relationship between Turkey and the Kurds.  Saad Jawad traces the strained relationship between Turkey and the Kurds in northern Iraq, arguing that Turkey will not support an independent Kurdish region, perhaps to point of attacking the region and bringing Turkey into conflict with the U.S.  Ibrahim Kalin, however, notes an accelerating rapprochement between the two parties initiated by the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq.  Kalin believes the success of the newly burgeoning diplomatic ties will be determined by four principles that Turkey outlines with all of its neighbors: security for all, territorial integrity, economic integration, and deepening social relations among the people.  Lastly, Khaled Salih writes that the Erdogan government is serious about dialogue with the Kurds as part of a movement to build a strong, new vision for Turkey.  Currently, it appears the country will “likely adopt a combination of democratization and decentralization” that will recognize group identities and Salih argues that Erdogan could adapt elements from the British, Spanish, and Belgian systems in this pursuit.

In Turkey, AFP reports that Kurdish parliamentarians are debating a decision to withdraw from Parliament as the The Democratic Society Party (DTP), the largest Kurdish party, has been outlawed by the constitutional court on grounds it is linked to the PKK.


Posted in Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Freedom, Iraq, Islam and Democracy, Kurds, Middle Eastern Media, Mideast Peace Plan, Turkey, US foreign policy | Comment »

Report: Human Rights on the Decline Part II

December 12th, 2009 by Jason

As we reported earlier, the Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies (CIHRS) has released a comprehensive and thorough report, called “Bastion of Impunity, Mirage of Reform,” on the state of human rights throughout the Arab world. The full report in Arabic spans 254 pages and chronicles in detail the backsliding on human rights in the region while also identifying a few points of optimism. In addition to the full report, CIHRS has released a translation of the report’s introduction written by their general director, Bahey eldin Hassan, as well as a 21-page summary of the report in English.

According to Hassan’s introduction, while there have been important strides to “ease repressive measures” in the Middle East under the Forum of the Future regional initiative, in no country were there “real constitutional, legislative, or institutional gains that could upset the balance of power between authoritarian regimes and the forces of reform.” Hassan blames this failure on the narrow focus on electoral reform at the expense of human rights, the contradictory actions of the G-8 countries, attempts by the Arab League to co-opt reform with their own homegrown initiatives, and the European and American fear of Islamist electoral victories. Finally, Hassan contends “the last spark in the initiatives was quashed once and for all with the arrival of a new US administration” apparently unwilling to support democracy rhetorically.

Now, Hassan warns that the minor gains made over the past five years are under a “counterattack by Arab governments. Among other examples of backtracking, the Arab league disabled the Arab Charter on Human Rights, which only had 10 of 22 signatory countries to begin with. As with the CIHRS report last year, Hassan concludes that “lack of political will on the part of most regimes in the Arab region was the key to understanding and explaining chronic human rights problems in the region.”

Read the rest of this entry »


Posted in Algeria, Arab League, Bahrain, Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, EU, Egypt, Elections, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Gulf, Hamas, Hezbollah, Human Rights, Iraq, Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Israel, Jordan, Journalism, Judiciary, Kurds, Lebanon, Legislation, Military, Morocco, Multilateralism, Muslim Brotherhood, NGOs, Palestine, Political Islam, Political Parties, Protests, Public Opinion, Publications, Reform, Saudi Arabia, Sectarianism, Syria, Tunisia, US foreign policy, United Nations, Western Sahara, Women, Yemen | 1 Comment »

Iraq: Election Law Passed

December 7th, 2009 by Zack

While the NY Times reports on U.S. military efforts to transition responsibility to the Iraqi armed forces, the Iraqi parliament has reached a deal on a new election law that is supported by Shiite, Sunni, and Kurdish leaders and is unlikely to collapse again.  The compromise expands the parliament to 325 seats from 275, with 310 of those seats allotted to Iraq’s 18 provinces and the remainder reserved for Iraqis living outside the country. According to the article, the deal differs little from the original law passed and then vetoed in November.  However, Al-Arabiyya reports that Tariq al Hashemi has vowed to not veto this bill and the presidency council will soon set a date for the elections, likely to be either February 27 or 28.

In a guest column at Informed Comment, Adam Silverman believes this new law fails to address the overall problem that “the Kurds and the Shi’a Arabs, as represented by the Kurdistan Alliance, Dawa, and ISCI, have demonstrated that their views of Iraq are clearly sometimes sectional rather than nationalist: they seek to either a partial or complete de facto secession.”  On top of this, Silverman argues that Iraq is still plagued by concerns over the Sunni response to their diminishing influence and the increasing fear the Iran will come to dominate Iraqi politics.  To address some of these issues, he prescribes that the international community needs to work with the Independent High Electoral Commission to develop an Open List/Proportional Representation electoral system, a reliable census must be taken, and a compromise should be reached on Kirkuk that will likely grant greater Kurdish control while providing guarantees that Arabs will not be politically disenfranchised.

IraqPundit responds to a story in the Guardian claiming that Prime Minister al Maliki closed down over 300 nightclubs in Baghdad as part of a government push to stamp out vice.  The IraqPundit, instead, claims that the paper was played by businessmen whose clubs were shut down for operating without a license and that Baghdad is rich with opportunities “to go to a club and drink alcohol and see dancing girls”, which would cost Al Maliki his office should he try to eliminate them.


Posted in Diplomacy, Elections, Iraq, Kurds, Legislation, Political Parties, Reform | Comment »

Iraq: Delayed Elections

December 3rd, 2009 by Zack

The U.N. has proposed February 27 as the most “feasible” date for Iraqi parliamentary elections while President Talibani and PM al-Maliki are calling on parliament to quickly approve a new election law.  Al-Arabiyya reports that VP Tariq al-Hashemi has been allowed by the High Judicial Council to postpone until Sunday a decision on whether to veto the most recently proposed election law draft.  Instead of addressing al-Hashemi’s concerns in the original law, Kurdish and Shiite MPs joined forces to pass an amended law that cut the number of parliamentary seats in predominantly Sunni areas.  Al-Hashemi is expected to veto the law, stating “the reasons why I vetoed the law still exist. I consider these reasons to be principles that I will not relinquish because they concern all Iraqi citizens.”

Evaluating the election law crisis, Rachel Schneller argues that the law’s derailing is not as bad as it sounds because the original version “could have triggered greater instability.”  The possibility of corruption would have called any government into question and the law could have created troubling divisions over oil revenues.  She believes elections should not be used as a benchmark of progress in such a fragile country and there is every “likelihood that 2010 elections will also result in a slow government formation process” which is a much more important issue than whether elections are held on time.  After examining the role of Kurdish power, she recommends that it would be in the best interest of the U.S. to postpone elections and focus on government reforms.


Posted in Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Elections, Iraq, Kurds, US foreign policy | Comment »

Turkey: Questioning the Future

December 2nd, 2009 by Zack

Soner Cagaptay examines the seven years of AKP rule in Turkey for the Washington Institute.  He writes that the AKP started out as a moderate Islamist movement indifferent to Turkey’s E.U. hopes, but with European Court of Human Rights decision to uphold the Turkish ban on headscarves and the military’s failed attempt to unseat the party, the AKP has eroded its E.U. aspirations and moved towards an authoritarian regime based on orthopraxy.  The AKP has also worked to undermine liberal principles, including free speech, and continues to align itself with anti-Western and Islamist regimes, resulting in an “a la carte moralistic foreign policy.”  Cagaptay believes the AKP “demonstrates that Islamists distort Islam, re-imagining it as inherently illiberal at home” and proves that “Islamism may not be compatible with the West, after all.”

David Schenker argues that Turkey has moved away from the West and towards Syria for two reasons: first, Turkey is no longer dependent on Israel to pressure Syria into not providing a safe haven for Kurdish extremists and, second, the Islamist shift in Turkish politics has shifted the country’s foreign policy paradigm. Damascus has naturally embraced rapprochement because the new face of Turkey is more amenable and Turkey can provide an avenue to facilitate diplomatic relations with Europe.

Michael Rubin writes that PM Erdogan is the new Vladimir Putin in his disdain for the free press and Rubin laments President Obama’s decision to turn a blind eye towards journalist abuses.  Rubin, then, advertises a meeting of the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission Thursday morning at 10:30 on Turkey.

The Daily Star reports that Negar Azizmoradi, the head of the Iranian branch of the Rael sect, a group that rejects the “existence of any god and believe extraterrestrials created the earth,” faces deportation from Turkey to Iran, where she faces execution.

In other news, The Daily Star reports that Turkey has signed a free-trade agreement with Jordan that “is key to enhancing bilateral economic cooperation and boosting trade as well as investments between Jordan and Turkey.”


Posted in Freedom, Human Rights, Islamist movements, Kurds, Middle Eastern Media, Political Parties, Reform, Turkey, US foreign policy | Comment »

Syria: Repressing the Kurds

December 1st, 2009 by Zack

Human Rights Watch has released a report (available here) imploring Syria to end their “unlawful and unjustified” practices of attacking Kurdish gatherings and detaining Kurdish activists.  Sarah Leah Whitson, Middle East and North Africa director at Human Rights Watch claims: “At a time when other countries in the region, from Iraq to Turkey, are improving the treatment of their Kurdish minority, Syria remains resistant to change.”  Including the Syrian government’s systematic political repression of the Kurds, the report documents the arrests and trials of at least 15 Syrian Kurdish political leaders since 2005.

Meanwhile, The Economist looks at Syria’s return to become a regional powerhouse, illustrated most recently by Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt’s reversal to declare Syria “is the core of the Arab world.”  The journal credits the change to rise of Bashar al Assad and his ability to address economic worries over the last six years.  However, Syria has failed to liberalize politically and they explain that the secret police are still allowed free reign to crush opposition.  Ultimately, Syria’s foreign policy strength rests on its ability to maintain intransigence on regional issues, slowing progess but drawing regional respect.


Posted in Diplomacy, Foreign Aid, Human Rights, Kurds, Syria, US foreign policy | Comment »

Turkey: Democracy and the Kurds

November 24th, 2009 by Zack

The Washington Post has written an editorial criticizing Turkish PM Recep Erdogan  for backsliding on his commitment to democratic principles.  Despite the fact that Erdogan is pushing through Kurdish reforms, the dimming prospects of Turkey joining the E.U. has led Turkey to adopt an unwanted stance on Israel and a coziness with Iran, Syria and Sudan, as well as cracking down on Turkish media.  The editorial concludes that Erdogan must stop “coddling Muslim dictators — and stop following their practice of silencing domestic opposition.”

The New York Times on the other hand has published an editorial focusing on the courage of Erdogan’s Turkish reforms.  While the editorial notes the same worrying trends, it argues Turkey is responding to U.S. efforts to push democracy and that Europe “must finally make clear that if Turkey bolsters its democracy and respects the rights of its minorities, it will be welcome in the European Union.”


Posted in Diplomacy, EU, Elections, Foreign Aid, Kurds, PKK, Reform, Turkey, US foreign policy | Comment »

Iraq: Will Another Election Law Stand?

November 24th, 2009 by Zack

After intense negotiations, reports the Huffington Post, the Iraqi parliament changed the basis for distributing parliamentary seats, giving preference to the Kurdish bloc rather than to the Sunnis.  The decision to favor the Kurds caused dozens of Sunni lawmakers to walk out of the session.  Al-Arabiyya explains that al-Hashemi is likely to also veto this legislation.  According to the NY Times, this development will most certainly delay the scheduled January elections.  The division underscores the depth of mistrust that remains and it does not appear that the parliament will be able to muster the necessary three-fifths majority to override a new veto.

In other news, the Daily Star has carried a story that PM Nouri al-Maliki is ramping up his public campaign against the Ba’athists before elections. Meanwhile, IraqPundit rejects Juan Cole’s argument that the Ba’athists are still going strong.  The pundit claims Cole oversimplifies the complex influences facing Iraqis. including secularism, al-Qaeda, and Iran, and he concludes that, “Juan Cole thinks so little of the people who live in this region that he sees them as having only two choices: religious fundamentalism and Arab nationalism. That’s it. Someone please tell this silly man that at least in Iraq, those two choices are no longer an option. The Iraqi people have rejected both.”


Posted in Elections, Iraq, Islam and Democracy, Kurds, Political Islam, Sectarianism, Secularism | Comment »

Senate and U.N. Condemn Iran

November 23rd, 2009 by Jason

Iran launched a series of war games this weekend as the international community expressed their frustration over troubled nuclear negotiations.

The Senate passed a resolution (S.R. 355) by unanimous consent condemning Iran for its multiple human rights violations. The bill was cosponsored by Carl Levin, John McCain, Bob Casey, Lindsey Graham, Bill Nelson, Bob Corker and Joe Lieberman. In response, the head of the National Iranian American Council, Trita Parsi, welcomed the resolution, explaining that “a U.S. approach to Iran that is singularly focused on the nuclear issue and neglects the human rights abuses in Iran will have limited success.” The United Nations also passed a resolution condemning Iran for its human rights abuses. While similar resolutions have passed for 15 consecutive years, this resolution focused the crackdown since the election this summer.

Read the rest of this entry »


Posted in Democracy Promotion, Elections, Freedom, Human Rights, Iran, Islam and Democracy, Journalism, Judiciary, Kurds, Legislation, Mideast Peace Plan, Military, Multilateralism, NGOs, Oil, Terrorism, US foreign policy, US politics, United Nations, sanctions | Comment »

Iraq Election Law Vetoed

November 19th, 2009 by Jason

The New York Times reports Sunni Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi has officially vetoed Iraq’s new election law, citing insufficient representation of Iraq’s minorities and refugees abroad. The Kurds were also unhappy with the law, leading to a threat of a boycott and a likely veto from Kurdish Vice President Jalal Talabani. The decision has forced Iraqi’s Independent High Election Commission to halt preparations for January’s elections. This is the 11th time the election law has been delayed.

Juan Cole criticizes al-Hashemi for acting in the interest of the Sunnis and not Iraq as a whole. According to Cole, the veto threatens “to create a political vacuum and create a constitutional vacuum.” Reider Visser explains why the veto may please al-Hashemi’s potential allies, Ayad Allawi and Saleh al-Mutlaq, as well as the Kurdish community, who stand to gain the most from increased representation of refugees.

Iraq Pundit criticizes Westerners who belittle Iraqi democracy. He writes, “sure it’s more fashionable to insist that Iraqis are incapable of living in a democracy. But just as many trendy ideas are nonsense, so is that one. Because Iraqis definitely understand and appreciate democracy.” In another post, Iraq Pundit seeks to assuage the media’s fears of an imminent collapse in Iraq, expressing his hope that the Iraqi people will vote the current “losers out of office and bring in a new government.”

While exploring the continued threat of Al Qaeda in Iraq, Myriam Benraadof The Washington Institute explains how terrorists have shifted tactics from attacking U.S. forces to Iraqi institutions to destabilize the country. Despite the news of the election law veto, U.S. General Ray Odierno announced all U.S. combat troops will pull out by August 2010, unless the situation unexpectedly changes.

Meanwhile, Gary Sick argues that fears Iran will come to dominate Iraq’s nascent democracy are “exaggerated.” According to Sick, much of this fear “can be written off as status envy or political sour grapes or even uneasiness that Iraq, unlike nearly all its neighbors in the Middle East, holds elections that are not rigged in favor of the current rulers.”  Sick concludes that “the Iraqi political experiment, messy as it may be, is showing signs of genuine representative government at a time when Iran seems to be sliding into a corporatist military dictatorship with an Islamic veneer.”


Posted in Elections, Iran, Iraq, Kurds, Legislation, Military, Political Parties, Terrorism, US foreign policy | Comment »

Iraq Elections

November 17th, 2009 by Zack

As resurgent Sunni attacks threaten long-term security in Iraq, the U.N. Security Council has called on Iraq’s political parties to show “national unity” ahead of elections.  The U.N. is concerned that “inside and outside forces continue their efforts to impose an agenda of division and destruction,” as such the U.N. asked that “all political blocs and their leaders in Iraq to demonstrate true statesmanship during the election campaign.”

Marina Ottoway argues the new election law is important because it will allow elections to be held before the parliament is set to expire on January 31 and because the law does not openly embed confessionalism.  Despite this, “the election law is no panacea, and it guarantees a messy post-election aftermath. As in the past, the problem of Kirkuk has simply been postponed rather than solved.”

The Daily Star has an AFP article with more on the Iraqi Presidential Council’s decision to ask parliament to rework the electoral law in order to give greater representation to Iraqis outside the country.  The new election law has reduced seats available to minorities and outside Iraqis from 15 percent to 5 percent.  According to the article the estimated 1.5 million Iraqis living abroad are expected to boost the Sunni election showing.

In light of the proposed changes, AP reports that the Kurdish political leadership has threatened to boycott elections unless the Kurds receive more seats in parliament.  Kurdistan Regional President Massoud Barzani said the current division of seats is “an attempt to reduce the number of Kurdistan Region representatives in the next Iraqi parliament and diminish their achievements.”


Posted in Elections, Freedom, Iraq, Kurds, Legislation, Political Parties, Secularism | Comment »

Iraqi Election Law Passes

November 9th, 2009 by Zack

Reuters reports that a compromise election law was passed in the Iraqi parliament on Sunday.  The pivotal issue of voting procedures in Kirkuk, where the Kurds wanted to use an updated voter registry that reflected an increased Kurdish population and to keep Kirkuk as one voter constituency, has been side-stepped.  According to al Arabiyya the vote in Kirkuk will be provisional and representatives will have one year, with the help of the U.N., to root out fraudulent votes.  Reidar Visser is reporting the new voter law will also include open candidate lists as well as an indirect ban on the use of images of (non-candidate) religious leaders.  While the actual number of seats was not determined, it is expected that there will be between 275 to 310 parliamentarians.  Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, in a statement, called this “a historic victory of the will of the Iraqi people” and a “strong response against the terrorists and the former regime members who are trying to undermine security and undermine the political process and return the country to the dark ages, injustice, tyranny and discrimination.”

Al Arabiyya is now reporting that parliamentary elections will be held on January 21.

Both Marc Lynch and Max Boot agree that this is a positive step for Iraqis.  Boot believes, “this is a positive sign showing that, for all its faults and limitations, Iraqi democracy is alive and well.”  Lynch argues that, “demonstrates that overall Obama’s Iraqi strategy is going well even if it doesn’t get much attention” and that Ambassador Christopher Hill’s hands off approach is basically the right one.  The NY Times is reporting that the election deal will keep U.S. troop withdrawal on schedule, which intends to begin a rapid withdrawal of the 120,000 American troops still in Iraq after the election.

In other news, Joost Hiltermann and Max Boot have published in depth articles about the state of Iraq ahead of the withdrawal.  Hiltermann’s article in the New York Review of Books sees 2010 a crucial year for Iraq democracy and stability.  Boot’s piece in the Weekly Standard examines Iraqi force capabilities and argues that the administration needs to protect the gains it has made.


Posted in Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Elections, Iraq, Islam and Democracy, Kurds, Legislation, Political Parties, Reform, Sectarianism, US foreign policy | Comment »

Iraq Election Law Stalls

November 5th, 2009 by Zack

The Huffington Post is reporting that the Iraqi Council of Representatives ended their session today without approving a new election law. According to the article, “the head of Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission, Faraj al-Haidari, earlier this week warned lawmakers that if they did not have an election deal passed by the end of the day Thursday, it would be impossible to carry out the election on January 16.”  The commission will meet later Thursday to decide how to proceed.

IraqPundit has written a piece discussing the sense in Iraq that all of Iraq’s neighbors, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Qatar, are meddling in Iraqi political affairs at the expense of “decent” candidates.  The Economist argues that despite all of this political backbiting Iraq is engaging in serious democracy and moving away from sectarianism.  The article explains that out of the six main electoral blocks, the “three that look most genuinely post-sectarian may well be the strongest.” The remaining three “sport fig-leaves of diversity but are tainted with past sectarian violence.”  The article goes on to analyze these new blocs and the shifting tensions within the country.


Posted in Elections, Freedom, Iraq, Kurds, Political Parties, Sectarianism, Secularism | Comment »

Should U.S. Care about Iraqi Elections?

October 30th, 2009 by Jason

Juan Cole questions the purpose of keeping so many American troops in Iraq to protect the upcoming elections: “why should the Obama administration care if the election is held or not? Saudi Arabia hasn’t held any elections lately and it is our ally.” Besides, previous elections were “highly flawed and artificial.” He concludes, “I’m as in favor of democracy as anyone else. But I’m also skeptical that it can be imposed at the point of a gun on a deeply divided society that is at the moment dirt-poor.”

The Iraq Pundit responds, “It may come as a great disappointment to Cole, but Iraq functions. It is not where it should be, but it’s getting there.” In the end, Iraqis “just want a better government.” He goes on to express his dismay, but not surprise, that Iraq’s politicians have once again failed to pass an election law. The main sticking point remains the Kurdish insistence on a closed ballot. He explains, “with a closed ballot, no one can see who the party will bring in with it when it wins. Any party, whether Kurdish or otherwise, includes unsavoury characters.”


Posted in Democracy Promotion, Elections, Iraq, Kurds, Legislation, Military, Political Parties, US foreign policy | Comment »

Political Threats to Iraq

October 29th, 2009 by Jason

Iraq arrested dozens of security officials in the aftermath of the bombings that killed 155 people this week. Meanwhile, the  parliament once again failed to pass an election law, after a Kurdish boycott prevented a quorum from being reached.

The Kurds have been at the center of recent developments in Iraq. A new Kurdish government took office this week as officials insisted on playing a role in foreign oil deals.  Michael Rubin laments recent crackdowns by the Kurdistan Regional Government and the Kurdish leadership’s insistence on a closed-list ballot that will spur corruption and patronage. Such corruption is being addressed by the Iraqi Interior Ministry with mixed success, reports The New York Times.

All together, Joost R. Hiltermann worries the political threats to Iraq are more dangerous than bombs, specifically citing the failure to pass an election law and the conflict of Kirkuk. He asks, “Will the security forces and state institutions hold up as politicians bicker and the US troops pull out?” Robert Dreyfuss is pessimistic, contending “as US forces draw down, Iraq is perched on the brink of renewed civil war.” As is Nir Rosen, who argues “talk about a post-sectarian future is premature.”

Former Iraqi mayor Najim Abed Al-Jabouri explains “While things are far better than a few years ago, one huge task remains: getting the public to trust the Iraqi security forces.” One of the main problems facing the security forces is they “are often loyal not to the state but to the person or political party that gave them their jobs.” He also adds, “The Iraqi government also made a huge mistake by failing to find a place for the Sons of Iraq in the national government.”


Posted in Elections, Iraq, Kurds, Military, Sectarianism, Terrorism, US foreign policy | Comment »

New Election Laws Stall in Iraq

October 22nd, 2009 by Zack

The Iraqi parliament has failed to reach a consensus over new open-list election laws.  Ammar Karim quotes Parliamentary Speaker Iyad al-Samarrai explaining the failure: “Opinion of some political parties became more intransigent, and this made an agreement impossible.”  Liz Sly reports that the law has snagged over voting procedures in Kirkuk, which is claimed by the Arabs, Kurds and Turkomen.  She also mentions the suspicion that the parliament intentionally dragged its feet over the law in order to force the country to revert to the previous closed-list election system, allowing voters only to choose a party rather than individual candidates.  The New York Times writes that, as parliament has now missed the October 15 deadline established by the U.N., the elections could be delayed beyond the scheduled January 16 date, which could then alter the U.S. withdrawal timetable.

Translating from Al-Zaman, Juan Cole explains that the issue has now been handed over to the Political Council for National Security, consisted of President Jalal Talabani, Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi, Vice President Adil Abdul Maliki, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, and Kurdistan Regional Government president Massoud Barzani,  to craft a new election law and have that sent to the parliament for an up-or-down vote.  He worries that as Iraqi elections are mandated to be held by January 31 and it 90 days to properly prepare for elections, we are likely to see “another sketchy election.”

In addition, Cole sites an article from Reidar Visser discussing the formation of a third political coalition that has formed between Sunni Awakening Councils of al-Anbar under the leadership of Abu Risha, and the coterie of Interior Minister Jawad al-Bulani, a Shiite independent.  Both Cole and Visser  feel that coalition will have little impact against al-Maliki’s Government of Laws coalition or the religious Shiite alliance.  IraqPundit, however, is reporting that the new alliance is being welcomed in Iraq as the political dialogue is focused on national unity and that many people are impressed by the big names, including Samarrai, that have joined the alliance.

On another note, Steven Lee Myers of the New York Times is reporting on the recent trade delegation, consisting of hundreds of Iraqi officials, that recently came to the U.S. to solicit investments and promote Iraqi business opportunities.


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