Christopher C. Hull. "How Obama and Huckabee Won Iowa: Inside the 2008 Caucuses." Annual Meeting. Boston, Mass.: American Political Science Association, 2008.
Why did the virtually unknown Mike Huckabee beat the lavishly funded Mitt Romney in the 2008 first-in-the-nation Iowa Caucuses? And why did front-runner and “inevitable” nominee Hillary Clinton finish third behind Barack Obama and John Edwards? Did Romney’s television advertising help him – or, as previous research has hinted, might it have actually harmed him? Did Huckabee’s lack of spending in Iowa virtually cripple him – or did the candidates’ days in Iowa alone actually tip the result? Did Obama’s perceived lack of electability set him back more than Clinton’s perceived ideological distance from anti-war Iowa Democrats? And did his race work against him, given Iowa’s lily-white electorate? The paper attempts to answer these questions building new 2008 data into a statistical models built upon an original 1976-2004 dataset of candidates who contested Iowa.
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