Iraq: The Future of American Influence
November 22nd, 2010 by Jason
In Saturday’s New York Times, Vice President Joe Biden wrote an editorial commending Iraqi politicians for “painstakingly” working through the issues needed to resolve the country’s political stalemate. “By agreeing to form a national partnership government, however, Iraqi leaders have sent an unmistakable message to their fellow citizens, their region and the world: after more than seven years of war and decades of dictatorship, Iraqis seek a nation where the rights of all citizens are recognized and the talents of all are harnessed to unlock the country’s full potential.” The Vice President went on to enumerate the many difficulties facing the new government, including the upcoming census, disagreement over the hydrocarbon law, and the final status of Kirkuk, among others. He also pushes for “continued engagement, including our broader diplomatic presence, a modernization plan for the Iraqi security forces and financing for a police development program.”
In contrast to the Vice President, Mohammad A. Salih, points to the failed attempts by the U.S., including phone calls from Vice President Biden and President Obama, to coerce Kurdish leader Jalal Talibani to step down in favor of Ayad Allawi as “a stark reminder of Washington’s dwindling leverage in Iraq.” And Feisal Amin Rasoul al-Istrabadi argues in an editorial in the Daily Star that “[t]he Obama administration’s Iraq policy is in chaos,” in part because, “Obama is following the example of President George W. Bush, who let the US electoral agenda, rather than American – not to mention Iraqi – national interests, dictate Iraq policy.”
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Political Parties, US foreign policy | Comment »
Iraq: Will the Power-Sharing Agreement Hold?
November 16th, 2010 by Jason
In a new article, Marina Ottaway and Danial Kaysi describe the current state of government formation in Iraq as, “at best extremely fragile.” The power-sharing agreement that would have Nouri al-Maliki remain prime minister “reaffirms the confessional character of the Iraqi political system.” According to the authors, the biggest obstacle to the implementation of the agreement is that it “does not really appear to be legally enforceable,” instead relying on the “good will of all major political factions.” The authors conclude that if Maliki continues to accrue power unchecked and the “two main conditions” of the agreement, the foundation of the National Council on Higher Strategic Policies (originally meant to be headed by Ayad Allawi) and the reinstatement of three banned Sunni politicians, are not met “the implementation of the agreement is likely dead.”
Larry Kaplow, writing at Foreign Policy, warns that “Iraq is not democratic in a reliable or deep sense, where people can expect equal rights, legal protections, or access to their leaders.” He lists various offenses against journalists perpetrated by the Iraqi government under Maliki, including that the government “has started requiring that news agencies register their staff and equipment.” Rule of Law remains “an abstract concept,” with people buying their way out of trouble and bribing government officials, according to Kaplow.
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Sectarianism | Comment »
Iraq: Where Does Allawi Stand?
November 15th, 2010 by Jason
After Iraqiya’s short lived walkout on Thursday, Ayad Allawi made comments to CNN declaring that “‘the concept of power-sharing is dead now […] It’s finished.’” He went on to accuse the current political process of moving Iraq towards a “new dictatorship.” The walkout reportedly occurred as a result of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and others refusing to vote on a power-sharing agreement first, opting instead to vote on who would assume the presidency. There was also the issue of “de-Baathification”, whereby three of Iraqiya’s members had been banned from participating in elections.
According to a report in the New York Times, the Iraqi parliament held a “tranquil session” Saturday, where they voted on a power-sharing agreement. “[M]embers of Iraqiya took part in a low-key session that consisted largely of ceremonial remarks […] In the end, they voted on a general plan for sharing power, but did not address any of the details that have divided the blocs.” Allawi did not attend the session.
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Political Parties | Comment »
Iraq: Walkout Threatens Tenuous Unity Government
November 12th, 2010 by Evan
Just hours into a parliamentary session on Thursday to approve Iraq’s new unity government, members of Ayad Allawi’s Iraqiya coalition staged a walkout. Washington Post reporter Leila Fadel writes that while the walkout did not immediately scuttle the agreement, it is indicative of the “deep divisions and distrust that dominate the country’s political system.” The New York Times’ Steven Lee Myers adds that the incident is a foreshadowing of the serious difficulties Iraqi politicians will face in the coming months: “The government — if it holds together — will be fractured and unwieldy, rife with suspicion, hobbled by a shaky grasp of the rule of law and prone to collapse, or at least chaos.”
Posted in Iraq, Legislation, Political Parties, Sectarianism | Comment »
Iraq: Reactions to New Government
November 11th, 2010 by Jason
The news that politicians in Iraq have managed to form a government is being met with cautious optimism. Max Boot, writing at Commentary, expresses exasperation with the length of the process saying, “[i]t’s hard to know what took so long, since the deal that has finally been reached is not too different from what was envisioned in the beginning.” Marc Lynch warns that there are “plenty of ways for this to go off the tracks,” and also remarks on the unsurprising nature of the agreement. He calls the appointment of Saleh Mutlak to the post of Foreign Minister the “biggest change,” saying that Mutlak could “help appease Saudis and other Arabs […] enticing them into playing a more constructive role in Iraqi affairs.” He also calls the creation of the National Council for Strategic Policies, the “biggest wildcard” to come out of the negotiations. The council, to be headed by Ayad Allawi, “has no Constitutional status, so will have to be created through legislation.” It also lacks clearly defined powers, which Lynch believes could lead to “entrenched intra-government infighting.”
Posted in Iraq, Political Parties | Comment »
Iraq: Tentative Deal on Government Formation Reached
November 11th, 2010 by Jason
According to numerous reports, a deal has been reached between Nouri al-Maliki’s coalition and the Sunni dominated coalition led by Ayad Allawi. The deal would allow Maliki to retain the position of prime minister, Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, would retain his current position as president, and the Iraqiya coalition will be allowed to nominate the speaker of the parliament. Osama al-Nujaifi, a member of Iraqiya, has been mentioned as a “leading candidate” for the position. Ayad Allawi will reportedly be the leader of a new, and still undefined, security council.
Posted in Iraq, Political Parties | Comment »
Iraq: The Next Lebanon?
November 9th, 2010 by Jason
An editorial in The Daily Star contends that the “bazaar-style haggling” over the “booty of the state” in Iraq could result in “a cabinet that will exhibit near-total paralysis instead of acting to improve the conditions of the state and its citizens.” The authors argue that the reliance on outside powers to help negotiate the formation of a government will lead to a “state of dependence” on those same powers. Using their own country as an unhappy example, the authors conclude that “[i]f the Iraqi leaders need a cautionary tale that might scare them into acting responsibly, they need only look at Lebanon, a country so deeply reliant on others to manage its crises that its independence exists merely as a hollow holiday in the calendar.”
Posted in Iraq, Lebanon, Sectarianism | Comment »
Iraq: Talabani Being Asked to Step Down
November 9th, 2010 by Jason
According to a report by the Christian Science Monitor’s Jane Arraf, Iraq’s current president, Jalal Talabani, is being asked to step down. “Political sources say although Iraqiya is publicly still insisting on the prime ministry, in closed-door negotiations they have shifted to demanding the presidency with expanded powers.” Arraf notes that Talabani has been the president in every Iraqi government since the fall of Saddam Hussein, and that “the Kurds are unlikely to easily give up the post.”
Reidar Visser examined the problems that could arise from just such a deal in a post yesterday: “The main problem here is the constitution, which demands a special majority decision in parliament for this kind of constitutional change, to be followed by a popular referendum. Even if the other parties agreed on giving a beefed-up presidency to Iraqiyya, no one would know for sure whether the powers of the presidency would actually change until after a referendum some time in 2011.”
Posted in Iraq, Political Parties, US foreign policy | Comment »
Iraq: The Irbil Conference, Possible Compromise?
November 8th, 2010 by Jason
Leaders from the main political blocs in Iraq, including Nouri al-Maliki and Iyad Allwai, met today in the northern Iraqi city of Irbil to negotiate a “power-sharing” deal. Sammy Ketz of Agence France Presse reports that the parties have made a “breakthrough,” described by government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh as “[a]n agreement […] among the political parties in which Jalal Talabani will continue as head of state, Nouri al-Maliki will stay on as prime minister and Iraqiya will choose its candidate for Parliament speaker.”
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, speaking while in Australia for talks, continued to push for the two main parties, Maliki’s State of Law and Allawi’s Iraqiya, to find a way to represent all of the groups in the country: “‘It is fair to say that we have been consistently urging the Iraqis to have an inclusive government that reflects the interests and needs of the various segments of the population, that there had to be legitimate power-sharing amongst different groups and individuals,’” Clinton said.
Posted in Iraq, Political Parties, US foreign policy | Comment »
Iraq: “No Better Vantage Point” for Iraqiyya
November 4th, 2010 by Jason
Reacting to the news that the Iraqi parliament will meet next week, Reidar Visser argues that Iraqiyya should accept the position of speaker of the parliament: “They should accept [the position] offered to them by Maliki and the Kurds […] because the position of the speakership offers an excellent opportunity for dominating the agenda of parliament and showcasing Iraqiyya as a nationalist party before the next parliamentary elections, scheduled for 2015.” There is “no better vantage point” for Allawi’s coalition to affect Iraqi politics, Visser says. Iraqiyya could also use the position to prove it bona fides as a purely nationalist party, rather than a sectarian one, by nominating a speaker with a “complicated, unexpected and quintessentially Iraqi ethno-sectarian background.”
Posted in Iraq, Political Parties | Comment »
Iraq: Parliament to Convene Next Week
November 3rd, 2010 by Anna
Iraq’s acting speaker of parliament Fuad Massum announced today that the body will convene on Monday, November 8th after an eight-month lapse. Representatives will need to choose a speaker and two deputies, as well as a president. Iraqiya lawmaker Ahmed al-Ureibi said that as many as 30 Iraqiya members plan to support a Maliki-led government. Jalal al-Din al-Sagheer, a senior member of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, is pessimistic: “We need more than a miracle to say that by next Monday a real solution will be achieved.” Meanwhile, Iraqiya leader Iyad Allawi said in an interview with The Guardian yesterday that his bloc is considering walking away from the process, adding: “I have come to accept that opposition is a real option for us.” He expressed that the bloc does not want to be “false witness to history by signing up to something that we don’t believe can work.”
Posted in Iraq, Political Parties | Comment »
POMED Notes: “Iraq’s Development Challenges”
November 2nd, 2010 by Jason
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) held a roundtable discussion Tuesday titled “Iraq’s Development Challenges.” The discussants were Christine McNab, Deputy Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General & UN Resident Coordinator and Humanitarian Coordinator for Iraq, John Desrocher, Director, Office of Iraq Affairs, US Department of State, and Leslie Campbell, Regional Director for the Middle East & North Africa, National Democratic Institute (NDI). The discussion was moderated by Frederick Tipson, Director of UNDP/Washington.
(To read full notes, continue below the fold or click here for pdf.) Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in Civil Society, Elections, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Iraq, Political Parties, Public Opinion, Reform, Sectarianism, US foreign policy | Comment »
Iraq: Government Formation Moving Forward?
November 2nd, 2010 by Jason
The Islamic Virtue Party (Fadhila) has announced its support for Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s bid to retain the premiership in Iraq. The party initially refused to back Maliki, instead entering negotiations with Iraqiyya. Juan Cole writes that the addition of Fadhila to Maliki’s coalition means that the State of Law coalition now comes to “at least 142 by my count, more if some Shiite independents within the Shiite fundamentalist National Iraqi Alliance swing around to him.” Cole adds that Ammar al-Hakim’s Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and Kurdish political parties are key to the formation of a government.
Reidar Visser, however, calls the formation of an Iraqi government before 2011 “not realistic.” The Kurdish demand for a strengthened presidency is “constitutionally impossible” without a referendum, which would be contentious and “time consuming,” according to Visser. He also says that the religious calender is going to have a deleterious effect on the government formation process. “First there is Eid al-Adha in mid-November. Then, towards the end of November, the Shiite holy month of Muharram commences; it culminates with Ashura in the first half of December but the celebrations will keep going well into January 2011 with Arbain marking the 40-day mourning period for the death of Imam Hussein. As a consequence, politics in Iraq will inevitably move more slowly again.”
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Political Parties | Comment »
Iraq: Mixed Reactions to Saudi Offer for Talks
November 1st, 2010 by Anna
On Saturday, Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah offered to host talks in Riyadh between the leaders of Iraq’s main political factions. The talks, which would be under the Arab League’s auspices, would take place at the end of this month. The reactions to the offer were mixed. The Iraqiya party welcomed the initiative and called on other political blocs to take part. The National Alliance turned down the offer, expressing confidence that the political stalemate could be resolved in Baghdad without outside “interference.” The Kurdish bloc also reportedly rejected the offer, contending that King Abdullah’s involvement would only complicate the problem. Outside Iraq, the Arab League’s Secretary General Amr Moussa seemed to welcome the idea, and Egypt likewise expressed support for the initiative and urged Iraqi politicians to make the necessary compromises in order to end the political impasse.
Posted in Arab League, Iraq, Political Parties, Saudi Arabia | Comment »
Iraq: “Hopes Rest on Reconciliation”
October 27th, 2010 by Jason
At a recent policy forum luncheon held by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, three members of the Institute gave their perspectives on the current political situation in Iraq. Ahmed Ali said that Prime Minister Maliki is “known to be close with Iraqi president and leading Kurdish figure Jalal Talabani,” but that Maliki also brought Minister of Planning Ali Baban along on his recent visit to Turkey, signaling to the Turks that he was not “yielding to Kurdish demands.” Michael Knights focused on the security situation saying that “[s]ecurity metrics are degrading in quality as the U.S. military draws down […] confirm[ing] that stabilization is slowing overall and even regressing in some places.” Michael Eisenstadt reflected on the challenges facing the US and Iraq in the future. “Going forward, hopes rest on reconciliation through politics, with the formation of a broad-based governing coalition that gives elements from every community a stake in political order.”
Posted in Civil Society, Freedom, Iraq, Kurds, Political Parties, Sectarianism, US foreign policy | Comment »
Transparency International Releases Corruption Rankings
October 26th, 2010 by Evan
Transparency International (TI)
released its annual Corruption Perceptions Index today. In the Middle East, little changed over the past year. Iraq, Sudan, Yemen, Iran and Libya continued to experience dangerous levels of corruption all scoring 2.2 or under on TI’s 10 point scale (10 being “very clean” and 3, “very corrupt”). Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Israel once again led the region in transparency, all scoring above 6.
Posted in Iran, Iraq, Israel, Libya, Qatar, Reform, Sudan, UAE, Yemen | Comment »
Iraq: Parliament’s Absence Ruled Unconstitutional
October 25th, 2010 by Jason
Iraq’s Supreme Court ordered the Iraqi parliament to convene after a seven month delay on Sunday, according to a report from the BBC. While one Iraqi constitutional lawyer called the order a “formality that would do nothing to break the political deadlock,” Reidar Visser calls the move a “small triumph for Iraqi democracy.” However, Visser points out that “what the main factions are currently doing, i.e. postponing the election of a parliament speaker until the architecture of a more comprehensive deal including prime minister and president is ready, is not in line with the constitution,” either. He goes on to describe the continued negotiations between the Kurdish parties and Maliki’s coalition, saying that “there is nothing that should prevent the Kurds from picking a winner within a week or so.”
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Judiciary, Kurds, Political Parties | Comment »
POMED Notes: “19th Annual Arab-US Policymakers Conference”
October 22nd, 2010 by Jason
The National Council on US-Arab Relations held its 19th annual Arab-US Policymakers Conference on Thursday. Opening remarks were made by Dr. John Duke Anthony, President and CEO of the National Council on US-Arab Relations and Rear Admiral Harold J. Bernsen, chairman of the Board of Directors at the National Council on US-Arab Relations. The first talk on the agenda was entitled “Arab-US Relations: Misadventures Past and Present,” and was given by The Honorable Chas W. Freeman Jr., former Ambassador and Assistant Secretary of Defense.
(To read full notes, continue below the fold or go here for pdf.)
Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in Diplomacy, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, Iraq, Islam and Democracy, Military, Neocons, Political Parties, Sectarianism, Terrorism, US foreign policy | Comment »
New “World Press Freedom Index” Shows Decline in Middle East Media Freedom
October 20th, 2010 by Anna
Reporters Without Borders released its annual World Press Freedom Index today. In the Middle East and North Africa, press freedom saw mild improvements in some places, but deterioration overall. Morocco dropped 8 places in the global ranking, which the report’s authors attribute to “the arbitrary closing down of a newspaper, the financial ruin of another newspaper, orchestrated by the authorities, etc.” Tunisia’s score also worsened “because of its policy of systematic repression enforced by government leaders in Tunis against any person who expresses an idea contrary to that of the regime,” as well as a new amendment to the penal code that essentially criminalizes contact with foreign organizations that could damage national economic interests. In Syria and Yemen, press freedom continues to suffer as arbitrary arrests and torture are “still routine,” and crackdowns in Iran have kept that country at the near-bottom of the index. The rankings went down for Bahrain and Kuwait due to an uptick in charges against bloggers, including prominent Kuwaiti blogger Mohammed Abdel Qader Al-Jassem. The Palestinian Territories rose 11 places because “the violations committed in the year just ended are simply ‘less serious’ than in 2009,” and Algeria also saw mild improvements in media freedom. In Iraq, a higher score reflects the fact that journalists now work in safer conditions than in the past.
Posted in Bahrain, Freedom, Gulf, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Middle Eastern Media, Palestine, Syria, Technology, Tunisia | Comment »
Iraq: Poor Public Services May Brew Discontent
October 20th, 2010 by Anna
In today’s New York Times, the ongoing shortcomings in public works programs in Iraq are profiled. Maria Golovnina writes that while “[v]iolence may be fading compared with the dark days of sectarian carnage two years ago,” the biggest challenges facing Iraqis are the scarcity of clean water and electricity, sewage treatment, trash collection, and good healthcare. Iraqis have become increasingly exasperated with these problems as the government fails to come together, prolonging the time frame for improvements. Now that basic security is less of a concern in daily life, many citizens expect authorities to turn their attention to improving service provision. Some blame corruption, wondering where the billions of dollars in U.S. reconstruction aid and Iraqi government money have gone. Gala Riani, a Middle East analyst with HIS Global Insight consulting group, argues that the government’s failures to improve services means that “discontent will continue to brew.” A spokesman for Baghdad’s municipal government, Hakeem Abdul Zahra, points out that reconstruction projects take time.
Posted in Foreign Aid, Iraq | Comment »
