The World in 2011: Cassandra

IN A few days' time—January 9th, if all goes to expectations—the people of the autonomous southern part of Sudan will vote for independence, so ending half-a-century of conflict and bitterness between the mostly Arab and Islamic north and the mostly non-Arab and often Christian south.

Assuming the southern secession goes ahead (and many fingers still have to be crossed for a peaceful process), the world can look forward to a new country—and the United Nations to a new member state, its 193rd.

But is the UN list the criterion for what constitutes a country? Pedants might add the tiny Vatican City (after all, the Pope pays “state” visits abroad). Political scientists might add, too, the Republic of Kosovo, which declared its independence from Serbia in 2008 and is recognised by some 72 countries, including the United States but not Russia (and certainly not Serbia). Realists would surely add Taiwan (or the Republic of China, as it calls itself, in contrast to the People’s Republic of China).

The Montevideo Convention of 1933 declared that a state should possess a permanent population, a defined territory, a government, and the ability to enter into relations with other states. That might seem conclusive enough at first glance, but at second glance it leaves plenty of scope for dispute. Taiwan would certainly qualify, despite its cold-shoulder from the UN. Arab idealists (or dreamers, given the frustrations of Middle East peacemaking) might add Palestine, which has observer status at the UN, a government of sorts, and relations with plenty of states. On the other hand, its territory is hostage to a peace settlement with Israel and remains stubbornly undefined. Moreover, the dreamers have to accept that the Palestine Authority has yet to declare statehood—and such a declaration is surely the first requirement of all.

But a declaration goes only so far. Abkhazia, for instance, is recognised only by a handful of countries (admittedly including Russia). The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is recognised only by Turkey. Transnistria is recognised only by Abkhazia and South Ossetia (whose own independence again has only a handful of supporters). The Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic, in what used to be the Spanish-run Western Sahara, is accepted by 81 states—but not by Morocco, which claims all of its territory and which can point out that the SADR government has to meet in exile in Algeria. Cassandra reckons a good case could be made for Somaliland, which is not recognised by anyone but seems to run its own affairs well enough. By contrast, the Somali Republic, which is recognised by everyone, is the very definition of a “failed state”.

Meanwhile, spare a thought for Scotland and Wales. They have their own flags, their own governments (well, an “Assembly” in the case of Wales), and their own independence movements. Yet virtually the only time they exist on the world stage as separate countries is when they play football…