The days of English as the world’s second language may (slowly) be ending

Only 333 million native English speakers in the world? I think you are rather far off in your numbers:

--Great Britain population 60 million
--US population 300 million
--Canada population 30 milllion
--New Zealand population 5 million
--Australia population 22 million
--Anglo-Caribbean, population around 6 million
--Singapore, 5 million

I count nearly 400 million, just off the top of my head.

I read one of the author's earlier books, A Language History of the World, and this underlying argument was also present in that book, though it was not the book's focus.

Oh, not this again!

All technology will do is further cement English as the lingua franca, because it removes any incentive for English native and English second (third/fourth) language speakers to learn other tongues.

Go to any webpage in any language, alphabet or writing system you like. Mandarin. Ancient Mittanian. Martian. Right click and "View source". What do you see?

Html tags that are obviously English and English-derived terms, in Roman characters. Underlying the entire internet, underlying nearly every computer programme (before the machine code and binary levels kick in) and what you see is a language dervided English.

Yes - there are non-English programming languages. But they are rare, minimal, and marginal. For as long as English/the Roman alphabet provides the human-accessible underpinnings of our dominant global communications system, the internet, English will remain - and grow as - the lingua franca.

And let us not also forget the evident and growing dominance of "Arabic" (for in the Arab world they currently use "Indian" numerals) numerals: ie the numeric notation system of the English-speaking world. I have no idea what numerals look like in Chinese or Swahili or Etruscan. I doubt I will ever need to know.

Globalisation needs a lingua franca. There isn't always time to pull out an iPhone app or ask a friendly robot to translate a word in some obscure tongue that turns out to mean DANGER! Airlines cannot be expected to provide safety information in dozens of languages per flight. One or two courtesy languages perhaps, but it's not a surprise that the international language of aviation is English, and nor can we ever expect that to change.

@quote: Mr Ostler acknowledges that so far such software is a disappointment even after 50 years of intense research, and an explosion in the power of computers.

Microsoft does not agree with Ostler. "Microsoft's Knowledge Base materials have been translated into nine languages by MSR-MT [machine translation]. This approach lowered the cost barrier to obtaining customized, higher-quality MT and Microsoft’s support group is now able to provide usable translations for its entire online KB. It can also keep current with updates and additions on a weekly basis – something that was previously unthinkable both in terms of time and expense." (http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/projects/mt/)

Mary.J, with respect:

--Britain - several million speak English as a second language.
--US - millions speak English as a second language.
--Canada - 6 million speak French first and millions of immigrants speak English as a second language.
--New Zealand and Australia -- many immigrants speak it as a second.
--Singapore - Many speak Chinese dialects or Tamil and other Indian languages as their native languages.
--Anglo-Caribbean - that one is probably right.

So 333 million is probably close.

As for the article, Ostler may eventually be right, but as the article states: his "argument relies on huge advances in computer translation and speech." The social reasons for English as a lingua franca will go on so long as the technology falls short of Star Trek's universal translator. The more interesting changes, which I see every day living abroad, are in English as a global language.

Mary.J, don't label every citizen of every country with English as official language as a native English speakers, French Canadians, Afrikaners, immigrants and their children, Carabean Creol and aboriginal, there are quite a few among your 400 millions that are wrongly counted.

--Great Britain population 60 million
58 millions

--US population 300 million
215 millions

--Canada population 30 milllion
18 millions

--New Zealand population 5 million
3 millions

--Australia population 22 million
15 millions

--Anglo-Caribbean, population around 6 million
Jamaica with 2.6, Puerto Rico with 0.1, Trinidad and Tobago with 1, Guyana with 0.7, Suriname with 0.3, Bahamas with 0.3, Barbados with 0.3, Belize with 0.2, St Vincent & Grenadines with 0.1, Grenada with 0.1, for a total of 5.7 which is not far from you estimation for once

--Singapore, 5 million
0.6 millions

There also India with 0.2, Phillipines with 3, Nigeria with 4, Germany with 0.2, South Africa with 3, Malaysia with 0.3, Zimbabwe with 0.2, Siera Leone with 0.5, Ireland with 4, Papua New Guinea with 0.1, Liberia with 0.6, Hong Kong 0.2, Zambia with 0.1 and some others with less than 100,000 native English speakers.

The great total gives about 331 millions for which English is their first language. 583 millions others have English as additional language, but their children could learn something else if another language becomes more handy, like Spanish or Chinese.

English communicates so much more than literal meaning. It communicates global savoir faire, privileged social status and often economic power. The children of the middle classes and upper classes will continue to spread English virally, and those kids will definitely not be running to electronic translators. Other kids will come for the music.

«Nihil novi sub sole!»

Apart the disputation on numbers, it seems that sooner or later - as a result of the natural law: all things change - the present role of the English language will disappear. Perhaps not only because of the increasing of the computer influence, as stated by the author of this book, in our daily lives (the vast majority of computer translations are quite deplorable) but because there are other «occult and powerful» forces (the nature of things) that will drive the «linguistic» future of humanity in another way...

«Non nova sed nove!»

Well! All vernacular languages pose a difficult problem to solve which is the psychological ascendency that a native speaker has over his foreigner peers - whatever is the level of their language mastery. And this aspect of intercommunication is not negligible, for more and more people do not like feel enfeebled notwithstanding their skills speaking this or that language.

So to solve this question («computer linguistics» is not, definitively, the solution) one should/must/can/ought/have to (whatever) to take conscience that the way is to learn a neutral language, so to say, and speak it with others at the same level...
President Barack Obama already gave a hint on this question when he decided to introduce Esperanto as a Second Language subject in American schools... although I think he is smart enough and will not pursue his aim. The solution for this must be a natural language - Interlingua in my opinion - a language that is easy for speakers of European languages (with strong ramifications all over the world) to learn and understand at first-sight and, at the same time, can also serve as a bridge to the Romance languages, or from these and other languages to English - the «Standard Average European» as described by Alexander Gode.

Are you read for this or do you prefer to submit uncritically your will to the whimsical «behaviour» of machine translations?

Not having read the book, only the review, I wonder if it looks at the social aspect to globalization. People around the world are striving to be global citizens, and are using English as their tool to do so. Every year a greater percentage of the world population is traveling and connecting with people who do not share their mother tung. We must re-think the concept of mother tung and second language. What does it mean? And I state that question not wanting to hear the old definition repeated back.

During a taxi ride in Paris I noticed the usual minimum fare notice: “Course minimum 5,90 euros”. Under that in “English” was “Minimum race…” When I jokingly observed that he might offend some passing pygmy, he retorted that he’d done it on his computer. I could have gone on to explain why copyright exists in translation but, since I needed to get to the airport, I just shut up.

The fact is that knowing Enlish as a second language gives a very real competitive advantage. One has greater opportunities and higher earning power if he/she knows English. Nationalistic tendencies of governments can not change this fact. Technology or not, all other things being equal - employers engaged in international business will prefer candidates with English to those without it. And who pays more money again: an international company or a small local dry-cleaning shop? Social, cultural etc. factors are just that - factors, but not the reasons, in most cases anyway, when it comes to such an expensive undertaking as learning a second language. Tried mastering one? Really knowing it well beyond Hi/Bye? Then you know what I am talking about.

Given all this, remember that English is easy to learn -- practically a business creole all on its own. I don't see any other language overtaking it -- certainly not Chinese or Japanese. It is said that English is like playing Mozart, easy to learn it 90%, difficult to refine that last 10%.

The statement "English has been rejected in other ex-colonies, such as Sri Lanka and Tanzania, where Anglophone elites gave way to Sinhala- and Swahili-speaking nationalists..." is laughable and self-explanatory

Any country that wishes to be part of the global economy/culture has to adopt English.

India tried to free itself from 'the yoke of colonialism' by adopting Hindi which was unable to replace the English-based system. China, which barely had any English-speakers about 20 years ago now has English taught from primary school onwards.

Of course one encounters various (funny?) accents in the process, but then anyone travelling through the UK would find it equally difficult to comprehend the local accents (which vary dramatically every hundred miles or so).

I disagree with the author about the declining of the English language as a lingua franca. First, most of the high quality media such as The Economist are written only in English and you must read it in English to know what's going on around the globe. If you just rely on local news, especially in Japan, it is really easy to be left behind the global village where people use English for international communication. Second, if you are a good PC user or interested in programming or designing. You must download English applications and program in English. Adobe has different prices in each country and there is $700 difference between English web premium CS4 and Japanese web premium CS4. Therefore, if you don't study or use English, you've got to pay the price. Third, most of the people in developing nations have strong financial incentives to learn English. I've read an article and it says that if you learn English at a factory that makes shoes for the international markets, you get $5 more for your basic salary. Fourth, education, especially free online education that targets people for non-degree programme vis itune is done in English. If you can use English, you can access to many of the world's best universities around the world.

English is easy to learn... Hm, tell that to a Japanese or any other asian for that matter.
English will continue its spread as long as its benefits (mostly economic in nature i.e. opportunities and increased earning power) outweigh the costs of learning it. But do not discount the latter, they are substantial, and by costs I do not mean just dollars, but all other resources that go into it.
I see the point of the author of the article. If at some point technological advances (like simultaneous translators)may decrease the benefits of knowing English to the point then they become less than the costs, then I can not see why people would still continue learning it. It just would not make economic sense. Will that happen is anyones guess. I bet not in the nearest future. But again nothing is constant. All comes down to money, so far money is on the English language side of the equation. No one needs to be reminded of that. But will it be there 20 years from now? How about 100 years? I am not so sure.

I’m worried by the increasing number of technical books written in Chinese.

The Chinese writing system is so hard to learn as is where encrypted. It gives China an “unfair” competitive advantage, because is easier for Chinese to read English books than the other way.

Automatic translation is the only hope.

Who cares about a meaningless statistical edge for any particular language, so long as people are able to communicate? Technology will likely make that possible in the not-too-distant future, so who cares about what language is spoken on either end of a communication?

US population 300 million, but not all Americans has English as a native language, such as, myself, Latino, Spanish is my native language, and yes, born and raised in the U.S., LA.

What would make the days of English as the world's second language end, either slowly or more rapidly, would be the ascent of a competing language. Such an ascent would be a byproduct of the home-country of that second language surging to overwhelming dominance in the global economy and political landscape. Were that to occur, then such questions as these would be begged:

"Why are all pilots compelled to learn English when the majority of international flights either originate in or terminate in xxx?"

"Why are most medical journal articles written in English when the majority of medical advances of the last so many years have come from xxx?"

"Why are our children required to learn English when most of the new economic opportunity in the world is created by companies headquartered in xxx?"

Economic opportunity and economic power are what drove English to its present status. Certainly with America's various challenges of late, one might imagine that other countries and their languages might pick up a bit more relevance over time.

If another country becomes economically and politically dominant, the switch to a new second language could occur very, very rapidly.

@Evanzant and MaryJ: Ummm..... sorry to disappoint, but Canada has well over 34 million people (not 30 million) and as almost 70% speak English at home, that means that more than 23 million people (not 18 million) speak English at home.
A quick visit to Wikipedia might help you out next time you're trying to use numbers to make a point.