Ex-communist Europe

Eastern approaches

Belarus's election

Lukashenka uncovered

Dec 20th 2010, 13:55 by A.O. | MOSCOW

IT WOULD be more honest if Alyaksandr Lukashenka, Belarus's thuggish and dictatorial president, did away with elections altogether. Instead, yesterday's charade of a poll resulted in false expectations and cracked skulls. As the country's slavish electoral committee declared Mr Lukashenka the winner, with 80% of votes on an improbable turnout of more than 90%, the true outcome of this election began to emerge.

Last night a massive demonstration of some 30,000 people was brutally dispersed by the Belarusian KGB and riot police. Six hundred people have been arrested. Many more have been beaten up. Seven of the nine candidates standing against Mr Lukashenka are in prison, some of them badly hurt. Their supporters are being hunted by the local KGB. Vladimir Neklyayev, a poet and one of the main candidates, was knocked unconscious as he tried to make his way to a demonstration. Later security services removed him from hospital—as his wife, reportedly, screamed from a locked room—and placed him in detention.

Another opposition candidate, Andrei Sannikov, a former diplomat, was also badly beaten. He and his wife, Irina Khalip, a journalist for Russia’s courageous Novaya Gazeta newspaper, were on their way to hospital when they were pushed to the side of the road by police. Ms Khalip was giving a live interview to Echo Moskvy, a Russian radio station, when a police officer pulled her out of the car. “What are you doing?" she screamed on air. "They are beating me in the face, they are twisting my arms, they’ve pushed me to the ground...Bastard, fascists...”. Then the connection was lost.  

Last night's clashes escalated after a small group of protesters tried to break into the government headquarters, which was barricaded from the inside. Riot police armed with shields and batons began to club the protestors on the head. Natalia Radzina, who runs Charter 97, an opposition website, was bludgeoned and her site came under cyber-attack. Natalia Koliada, a founder of the Belarus Free Theatre group, was also arrested.

In the best tradition of the Soviet KGB, whose name they have lovingly preserved, Belarusian security services carried out arrests in the middle of the night, taking people from their homes. Dmitry Bondarenko, a prominent activist and supporter of Mr Sannikov, was arrested at 6am. “My grandfather was a partisan during the second world war. My grandmother was taken by the Gestapo. I grew up on stories about partisans”, he told me a few weeks ago in Minsk.

This time, however, the aggressor is not a foreign enemy but the president. Mr Lukashenka has ruled Belarus for 16 years, twisting the constitution to ensure an indefinite stay in power. After the last presidential election, in 2006, protestors remained in the main square for a few days. This time, Mr Lukashenka probably decided it was too risky to wait.

That the election would be rigged was clear for a long time. Media coverage was monopolised by the government, and "early voting" carried out several days before the election delivered about a quarter of Mr Lukashenka's votes. Observers from the camps of opposition candidates were stationed at less than 1% of polling stations. In a fair contest, Mr Lukashenka may have received more votes than his opponents, but almost certainly not enough to win in the first round.
 
Observers from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) said the count of half of the ballot papers was “bad or very bad”. Tony Lloyd, head of the OSCE mission, said the election had "failed to give Belarus the new start it needed. The counting process lacked transparency. The people of Belarus deserved better... I now expect the government to account for the arrests of presidential candidates, journalists and human rights activists." Catherine Ashton, the European Union's top diplomat, called on Belarus to "immediately release" the opposition leaders and condemned the use of violence, as did America.

In fact, opposition leaders in Belarus had never hoped for a fair election. They rather saw the vote as an opportunity to reach out directly to the population and demand a genuine poll later. They were also hoping that Russia, which has quarrelled with Mr Lukashenka this year, would back them up, or at least not give Mr Lukashenka a free hand, as it has done previously. Only a few months ago, the Kremlin, through its Russian television channels, accused Mr Lukashenka of repression and election-rigging. But at the eleventh hour Mr Lukashenka made peace with the Kremlin.

But a few hours after last night's demonstration of police brutality Russian observers said, “These actions [by the police] cannot be considered as anything but legal.” Pavel Borodin, a Russian official in charge of Russia's much-postponed "union state" with Belarus, blamed America for the unrest. “They [Americans] lured young guys and got them drunk. Everything is coming from beyond the ocean”. (Mr Borodin was briefly detained in New York in 2001 on money laundering charges, before being extradited to Switzerland and released).

Although Russia is yet to formally recognise the election result, Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s president, said it was an "internal matter" for Belarus, and did not comment on the violence. But the unrest embarrassed some European leaders, who had argued before the elections that Mr Lukashenka’s regime was becoming more liberal, and promised the government money if the vote were conducted properly. Dalia Grybauskaite, Lithuania’s president, reportedly told EU diplomats that a victory by Mr Lukashenka would safeguard stability and limit Russian influence.

Mr Lukashenka has once again successfully managed to play off Russia against the West. The real losers in his tiresome game are the people of Belarus.

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Great Reader wrote:
Dec 20th 2010 5:35 GMT

Thank you, great post.

Dec 20th 2010 5:38 GMT

What a shame. I feel sad for the Belorussian people. Just make sure when your "Orange Revolution" eventually happens it doesn't turn out like Ukraine 5 years after theirs.

Great Reader wrote:
Dec 20th 2010 5:42 GMT

BelTA, a state news agency, reports

"The presidential election campaign in Belarus was organized well and in due form, former Prime Minister of Lithuania Kazimira Prunskiene told reporters on 19 December. She was monitoring the presidential election in Belarus, BelTA has learnt".

http://news.belta.by/en/news/society?id=601988

Do Ms Prunskiene's remarks, if confirmed, sound odd to Lithuanian readers?

Dec 20th 2010 5:55 GMT

Belarus is to Russia what North Korea is to China - both China and Russia would never let them slip out of their reach.

I feel sad for Belarussians - I know some personally, many people from Belarus comes to my city to study at KUL. For such countries the worst is being forgotten - the least we can do is to keep eye on Belarus and make noise.

killer queen wrote:
Dec 20th 2010 6:23 GMT

"I feel sad for the Belorussian people."

Cheer up. They are better off than lots of people. Those living with miserable wages and high prices wouldn't mind relocating to a country where there's order, clean streets andlaughable prices, even if democracy isn't the first priority out there. The "democrates" of the former Soviet republics are far worse.

Dec 20th 2010 6:30 GMT

Is this the order you speak of?
http://charter97.org/en/news/2010/12/20/34834/

Would rather live in Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Georgia, Ukraine, etc. Have myself lived in two of those countries.

Great Reader wrote:
Dec 20th 2010 6:54 GMT

@ killer queen

You are Russian - I can tell from the "clean streets" comment. Western readers tend to take clean streets for granted. I don't know where you saw those laughable prices; I live in London, and don't find prices at a Minsk supermarket laughable at all - and my paycheck is not $150+, which is what a Belarusian school teacher makes. Bt yeah, the streets are clean, clean enough to lie on the pavement when a group of policemen is kicking you in the kidneys.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GpsKvuVt3Aw&feature=player_embedded

killer queen wrote:
Dec 20th 2010 7:22 GMT

Michael Kelley, I was talking abt normal everyday life, not protests and repression.

Great Reader, thanks for the laugh. Is Scandinavia western enough for you? Not so clean though. Even Singapore falls behind, so don't give me that.

A theater ticket costs 2-5 dollars, a night in a more or less decent hotel 10 dollars. I find that laughable.

Dec 20th 2010 7:24 GMT

Great Reader: "Do Ms Prunskiene's remarks, if confirmed, sound odd to Lithuanian readers?"
-------------------
Look who's talking - Prunskiene. She tried hard to challenge the facts of her collaboration with the KGB and her role in creating the situation for justification of the putsch of January 13, 1991. I think the Economist could go to investigate this kind of people and make its own report.
Lithuania's society at large seems to be divided on the issue of whether its figures like A.Brazauskas "worked for Lithuania" in the Soviet time. Then look at it's level of corruption, suicides, and crimes per capita, and the new wave of alcoholism as well as its huge emigration. Compare just the number of people that has fled the country since 1991 with the number of people that experienced deportations under Stalin - does it tell you of a healthy society?
I am probably not the only one who does not get what D.Grybauskaitė does in foreign affairs. Since she declared France to be Lithuania's strategic partner, you better ask the French.

Robert North wrote:
Dec 20th 2010 7:52 GMT

At least he is not trying to hide anything, which makes the mocking hard to bear. 80% in favour, 90% turnout? these figures are statistically impossible, which raises the issue of whether the elections were really just a ploy to flush out opponents? If so quite a few supporters of this sham deserve being reprimanded for their complicitness.

Great Reader wrote:
Dec 20th 2010 8:02 GMT

@ killer queen

Really? A person from Scandinavia reads a blog post quoting screams of a woman being beaten up by uniformed thugs, in the middle of Europe, and his - it can't be "her", can it? - soul bubbles up "Hey, no biggie, they have clean streets and cheap movie tickets". Your parents must be really proud.

D. Sherman wrote:
Dec 20th 2010 8:27 GMT

I have to wonder if there's any political "leader" anywhere in the world who, in his heart of hearts, wouldn't want to be Stalin if he could.

killer queen wrote:
Dec 20th 2010 9:24 GMT

Great Reader wrote:

"and his - it can't be "her", can it? - soul..."

u mean I'm male? You made my day.

"A person from Scandinavia..."

The place I live or lived in doesn't say anything about my origin, does it?

"...reads a blog post quoting screams of a woman being beaten up by uniformed thugs, in the middle of Europe, and bubbles up "Hey, no biggie, they have clean streets and cheap movie tickets".

Are you trying to distort my words or is it a bona fide misunderstanding? If the latter is the case, I'll try to explain what I meant. Perhaps I dind't make myself quite clear.

Here we go.

I hate all kinds of violence, regardless of the reasons behind it, be it politics, bad home, religious fanatism etc. Rest assured, I find the recent events horrible. Beating a person, male or female, is outrageous, and if it's done by those in power, it's even worse.
Now, when I said " They are better off than lots of people" I meant everyday life (see my answer to Michael Kelley). Yeah, it's my honest conviction that in normal everyday life they are better off thanks to low prices, order and stability of sorts. Or maybe you think those don't matter? Trust me, millions would swap their lives for what our friends Belorussians have without much hesitation.
Another thing. I personally asked some people from the country in question - mind you, young and educated ones- and all of them said that L. is bad, but for now he's the best of the worst. Some were also sure that L. would win anyways as he really had public support. Again, not because he's good or honest, but because they are not ready to give up the above mentioned goods for the sake of the 'democratic' mayhem they had a chance to observe in the neighbouring countires.

Dec 20th 2010 9:37 GMT

Sirs,

This might be better titled "Lukaschenko Ignored--Again." The west, while able to easily remove Lukashenko, doesn't generally appreciate otherwise that Russia, Ukraine and Belarus will take another 25-50 years before anything resembling a democracy, broad free enterprise and new constitutions emerge and take root in a stable, long-term way with an entrenched middle class.

(Of course, the US is an interesting parallel to Belarus as it continues to deteriorate constitutionally. The UK has some similar problems as the US, but not as lethal, as it has nowhere near the state and military infrastructure).

Having lived and worked in Minsk over 18 years ago, it is unfortunate to see the public still living in a society effectively unchanged since its days as a Soviet satrapy.

As for Lukashenko, he is rather easily addressed through a number of mechanisms and is very vulnerable. It is unfortunate however that the US and UK, amoung others, are not as determined to effect regime change as they were toward Iraq, as are toward Iran and especially, as determined to effect hegemony over Russia by occupying and controlling the Caucasus and broader Middle East.

It is sad indeed, if not tragic, that not much at all has changed in the former Soviet Union, in many ways, since 1989, where the world had a brief glimmer of reprieve and hope from Russia's Gorbachov.

If only the Caspian and Jerusalum were in Poland.

Regards.

bismarck111 wrote:
Dec 20th 2010 10:03 GMT

I think the Chinese would love to trade Kim Jong Il for Lukaschenko any day.

keista man wrote:
Dec 20th 2010 10:19 GMT

Do Ms Prunskiene's remarks, if confirmed, sound odd to Lithuanian readers?

---

No. It's her, the KGB servant of Russia and all its beloved dictators. KGB nickname Šatrija, another popular nickname Knyaginya Utyugovna.

She created and lead countless amount of different new parties before each election; people guess KGB doesn't allow her to retire and get a pension yet. She seems desperate and hopeless. All she does now it seems is to tarnish the reputation of Lithuania and help the dictators of its neighbors to save their face in front of their naive folks.

Other bastards from Lithuania you shall not respect are: Viktor Uspaskich, Paleckis, Gražulis, Veselka, Karosas, Vagnorius, Paksas, Murza, and even Grybauskaitė, I guess (she's not obviously exposed as KGB servant or such yet, but all she does is awfully suspicious to me).

Boris Britva wrote:
Dec 20th 2010 11:15 GMT

"The real losers in his tiresome game are the people of Belarus." I'm living there. I was there. I saw what happened and see what is happenning. It's true! It hurts! But I don't know where's the way out.

Great Reader wrote:
Dec 20th 2010 11:18 GMT

@ killer queen

Ok, let me rephrase your points.

1. Belarusians (not "Belorusians") are better off that Zimbabweans, for example.
No argument there.

2. Belarusians are better off than citizens of "the "democrates" of the former Soviet republics".
Tell that to thousands of Belarusians fleeing Belarus for Russia, Ukraine, Poland, and wherever they can get.

You cannot spell "Belarusian", measure price level by the cost of theater tickets and hotel stays, and, residing in Scandinavia, rely on opinions of Belarusian acquaintances who are supposedly "young and educated" but sound like retirees who spent too much time watching Lukashenka TV. If you cannot get empathy, get a clue, read more.

Zerzy wrote:
Dec 20th 2010 11:54 GMT

@Matt Andersson

"If only the Caspian and Jerusalum were in Poland."

God forbid.

1-20 of 130

About Eastern approaches

Eastern approaches deals with the economic, political, security and cultural aspects of the eastern half of the European continent. It incorporates the long-running "Europe.view" weekly column. The blog is named after the wartime memoirs of the British soldier Sir Fitzroy Maclean.

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