Baobab

MANY in Côte d’Ivoire had begun to doubt that another election would ever happen. But after half a dozen delays and more than five years of wrangling, the country held a presidential poll on October 31st. The peaceful vote and huge turnout, as high as 80% by some estimates, showed how keen Ivorians are to make up for a lost decade of political and military deadlock. But there is a long way to go before the country—divided between north and south since 2002 after a short, brutal civil war—can be fully reunited, let alone recover its lost reputation. Côte d’Ivoire was once West Africa’s jewel, with political stability and cocoa-fuelled growth that were the envy of the continent.

Neither the incumbent president, Laurent Gbagbo, nor his chief challenger, Alassane Outtara, a former prime minister and IMF man, achieved an outright first-round win. A former president, Henri Konan Bedie, in third place, seems to have been knocked out of the running. The hope is that the country will stay calm for a run-off and thereafter. Mr Gbagbo’s cheerleaders, known as the Young Patriots, have a record of taking over the streets when thwarted. Thousands of French citizens fled when rioters targeted them after a disputed poll in 2004. The next few weeks will be tense.

The thorny question of nationality is still at the heart of the matter. In the boom years Ivorians welcomed peasants from neighbouring countries to work the land. But when jobs dried up, so did the hospitality. Mr Ouattara, a northerner, was ruled out of a previous poll on the ground that he was not Ivorian. The rebels who then seized the north said they did so because they were being made to feel second-class citizens.

This time round, all sides have so far played by the rules and resisted making the sort of ethnic diatribes that helped spark violence before. In a second round they may be less restrained. Just over 9,000 UN peacekeepers are keeping watch. But with so much at stake, will either side accept defeat?

Mr Ouattara will hope to count on the support of Mr Bedie in the run-off, as the pair are part of a coalition formed to stand up to Mr Gbagbo, who has run the country unelected for the past five years. If this coalition holds, Mr Gbagbo could be defeated. But the ageing Mr Bedie’s supporters cannot be guaranteed to switch their support to Mr Ouattara.

A peaceful election is vital if the Ivorian economy is to take off again—or if the country is to reunite. Though it is still the world’s biggest cocoa producer, the number of beans flowing out of its farms is dipping because of a lack of investment and reform. And the military roadblocks that keep the two parts of the country apart cost businesses hundreds of millions of dollars a year. Whoever wins faces a daunting task, even if peace prevails.