Daily chart

Prediction: China overtakes the US in 2021.

The US responds by annexing Mexico and Canada, with strong "political ties" to Central and South America, and calls itself "Oceania".

China responds by annexing SE Asia, with strong "polical ties" to South Asia, and the Middle East, calling itself "Eastasia".

Europe and Russia create a strong political bond, with strong "political ties" to Africa, and calles itself "Eurasia".

Wait, I think I've heard this before:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_book

I think the elephant in the room is whether or not the USD will still be used to measure GDP in 10 years time.

Could we please have a similar chart including also India and the EU if possible? Thank you.

If the US does not improve local economy; I guess China will catch up in 2017. China will trades more with Asia, and also EU will invests more in Asia. US corporations will produce goods in Asia or whereever the cheapest labor costs, unemployments remain high.
The US government must overhaul political economic structure,and reengineer education system.

What does the US needs to do to leapfrog forward?
Economic growth. How?
Real Profit Sharing Will Stimulate Economic Recovery. 

The National Bureau of Economic Research has defined the 5 components of a healthyeconomic recovery. 
They are: 1.Increased personal income 2.Increased employment 3.Increased industrial production 4.Increased business sales volume 5.Increased Gross Domestic Product statistics for 2 or more consecutive months. 
What ONE economic strategy can accomplish all five of these at once?Real profit sharing.  Not profit sharing in its present puny form. If we want rapid results, there must be a generous cash-back, frequent, predetermined percentage of profits,  shared with workers. And what would incentivize private interests to participate?   A tax credit.  Allow businesses a tax credit for their profit-sharing, up to 15-20% of net profits.  A contingent tax cut, in essence. 1.Profitsharing would rapidly raise household incomes, causing increased supply and demand.2.An increase in supply and demand precedes job creation. 3.Higher pay (linked to profits)  incentivizes job seekers,  and hard work. - A motivated workforce increases industrial productivity.4.Increased supply and demand also  leads to increased sales volume.5.A profitsharing tax credit is a  built-in stimulus, which creates a sustained healthy GDP.6.Additionally if this is practiced world-wide, it could revitalize the global economy as well, and perhaps restore our nation to a position of moral and economic leadership, by demonstrating a more egalitarian  model of free enterprise. All of the above, of course, leads to a wider tax revenue base, and greater tax revenues.More jobs, more people working, higher incomes lead to more paycheck with-holdings. It would therefore  replenish the Medicare and social security coffers as well.     It leads to a leaner government, that is more citizen and business friendly. The profitsharing tax credit makes it easier for the unemployed  “on-the-street” to attain financial stability. It helps families pay for mortgages and health care.  It helps prevent the extremes of poverty and wealth by natural design. Most importantly, it is politically neutral.  It is the missing link of conservative supply-side economics and the missing link of liberal economic democracy.  It dovetails liberal and conservative ideals. It is two opposite turning gears doing work for the betterment of the people.Why not try it in one state first, like NC, and if it works, expand the program.  The profitsharing tax credit will work. We can still be an economic leader if we do this. If not we will shrink to a third world status.

China's economy still lacks a strong middle class and a sustaining domestic industry. China's GDP per capita is still miles behind its European, American, and Japanese counterparts (aka, while the country produces a lot, it's people are still poor). We have yet to see how China handles the transition to an economy of consumption, and not just an export economy that maintains an artificially low exchange rate. How will China fare when it stops piggy-backing on peddling cheap goods to the rest of the world? Some day, it needs to alters its domestic spending habits. Can China handle that transition with 1 billion citizens, most still living below the poverty line?

For more political-economic commentary, see www.GregContente.com.

Top-stuff. I'm a sucker for an interactive tool.

China predictibilly will not overtake United States by 2019, 2022 or even 2030. Yes, GDP growth in China still remains at 10% average but that growth level will come to fall by year 2015 at 5% or less given the upward growth of the US at 5% or better. This pace of growth in the US will keep the Chinese behind in its economic growth. China will falter beacuse of its institutional weaknesses vis,a,vis banking sector let alone other Government sectors. The United States is beginning to place its house in order to tackle this problem with economic growth per say. Therefor, keep predicting and guessing what if China will take over the mantle of economic power from the United States. One thing is good though about this prediction game that policy makers in Washington DC will take this issue seriously and work it to ddvelop an economic plan that will keep us number one in the world in that realmn.

This prediction making the HUGE assumption that China's grows growth rate will remain the same as it expands. Chances are it's growth rate will shrink considerably. If nothing else consider the stresses in it's infrastructure it is already experiencing (ie lorry traffic queues that last for days at a dime).

"Its the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine"

Remember that song?

Prediction: China triggers WW3 because the old guys running the country need to prove their manhood, their economy collapses, US back on top.

Chinese gov't might seem rich, their people are still poor, relying on exports to earn a meager living.

China would probably eclipse the US in 2 years if the RMB floated, but then again, their jobs would disappear in 1 if that happened.

I just don't understand why people are so silly to spend their precious time responding to this gimmick of getting more eyeballs for the magazine. Very soon you will find the anti-China crowds rushing in to give all kinds of dire predictions for China and the pro-China crowds will certainly jump in to respond in kind, and the cycle continues. In the meantime, the Economist is laughing all the way to the bank.

The economy is not an exact science, leaving ample space for variation.
Going by economic history for the past 2 decades, more so the last one, the trends for China and the US are very nearly set in stone.(?)
The multiple reasons for growth potential in either country too.
The logic of full-blown American invented capitalism - free capital flow, free markets, free trade, free banking and finance - all now favour China not the US.

If, however, an unforeseen event or circumstance crops up that alters current assumptions then those trends can head off in a different direction.
Right now that seems unlikely though.

Japan, the previous runner-up failed badly to fulfil predictions made earlier on in the 80's. Why?
It is not difficult to find sensible answers.

China, however, even if it were not racing along at breakneck speed is an altogether different story.
Need I only mention the country's size, demography, iron-fist rule, still untapped potential and its apparent collective focus?

@Darian2
I am interested in discussing your ideas if they are feasible. My question is how these ideas can be extended to the global economy? How can they help African peoples get out of their miseries? It seems to me that economic recovery is entangled with political will, and since it is hard to predict human will, it is therefore hard to imagine a world of real shared profits.

The Economist should better focuses its well regarded chart-graphic technology to the prediction of world peace, greenhouse effects and global weather anomalies, not to stoke the US-China relations already in distress of some sorts.

China simply has no intention nor the facility to overtake America for the foreseeable future. No good will come out of any wild prediction.

The US economy is still three times as large as China’s (and you don’t want to know the per capita GDP or per capita anything in China).

The US is still the world’s largest manufacturing base. The US dollar still dominates world’s financial affairs by far.

The US outspends China in defenses 10 to 1 in real terms, with thousands of military bases posted overseas and China has practically none, not even one lousy aircraft carrier to prowl around its own coastal waters (all other BRIC members have at least one to show for).

And the sciences and technologies: While the US and West scientists earned and wrapped up Nobel Prizes for physics, chemistry, medicine, and even in economy good, all China has managed is to have one of its dissidents (and a convict too) for a now politically bankrupt Peace prize.

China just wants to develop itself to better prosperity for its people, never mind that “overtaking” nonsense talk.

Economics is at the heart of growth. One thing that can help economic growth is offering good university education at a low cost so more people become educated with quality education. I think that culturally the U.S. is behind China in terms of offering free education to its citizens. Individualism which is the product of capitalism does not help, but on the other hand collective socialism is worse. The solution should be in finding a middle way.

What is the implication of higher inflation?

I ask because I heard that China possibly is experiencing a real inflation rate that may be higher than the official inflation rate.

Now if I substituted 8% for the 4% given as the default setting for China's inflation, I noticed the period for matching the US' in economic side moves forward to 2017 or so.

I would have thought the crossover would have moved to a later time period...

This will be truly a seminal moment and bitter sweet when it happens.

Its very important to point out that we lost because China was so great but also because we spent our national energy in a bunch of futile wars. Wars galore!, one after the other after the other. Starting from Korea, then Vietnam, then Desert Storm 1, 2, Afghanistan and a bunch of tiny ones in between. These wars sapped our national strength and turned our young men into warrior imbiciles instead of Engineers and manufacturers like the Koreans and Chinese.
When Japan was gaining traction in automobiles we were fighting in Vietnam and when Korea/Taiwan was gaining in semi conductors we were in Desert Storm 1...

Where are the charts from 20 years ago that confidently predicted the date when Japan would overtake America?

@ mazim:

Mazim, from which planet are you from?