Iraq: The Precarious Kurdish Position
December 6th, 2010 by Jason
Denise Natali writes at The Middle East Channel that the Kurds of Iraq face a number of challenges going forward and that compromising on their “highly-charged nationalist agenda” may be the best way to secure “long-term political and economic prosperity.” Natali argues that the Kurds position has been fundamentally weakened due to their status as “a politically expedient swing vote” and the “ceremonial” nature of the presidency, which is held by a Kurd, Jalal Talabani. Perhaps most importantly, the central government is not recognizing oil contracts negotiated by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). “[G]iven the new role of oil in driving the Kurdistan region’s development and the absence of support from key Sunni and Shia Arab groups for Kurdish control of Kirkuk, the KRG may have little choice but to substitute emotional nationalism for political pragmatism.”
Posted in Iraq, Kurds, Oil | Comment »
Iraq: Where the Kurds Stand
October 18th, 2010 by Jason
While many assume that Iran stands to benefit most from the current political situation in Iraq, Ranj Alaaldin argues that the involvement of Iran has spurred the US to support the attempt by Ayad Allawi to form a coalition with the Kurds (who hold 57 seats) and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (who hold 18 seats.) “These developments mean that the Kurds have emerged as kingmakers,” because both Allawi and Maliki are actively courting the group to join their respective coalitions. “They hold the power to determine the future of Iraq’s other groupings, the future of the country itself as well as that of the US role in Iraq,” according to Alaaldin.
Reidar Visser provides a look at the demands the Kurds have made in exchange for their cooperation. “We have the ironic situation whereby two declared Iraqi nationalists (Maliki and Allawi) who are theoretically committed to working against the destruction of the Iraqi state in practice are trying to outbid each other in an attempt at satisfying Kurdish aims that are directed precisely at the dismemberment of Iraq as a recognisable and governable state.” The Kurds have released a set of “19 Points” that they wish to be fulfilled prior to their agreement to join a coalition. Visser calls into question the constitutionality of the fourth Point, which entails “the establishment of a senate within the first year of the parliament, and the extension of the veto powers of the presidency council until the senate is up and running.” The problem with this Point is that “[t]his is simply one hundred per cent unconstitutional and against the basic principles of separation of power. It is for the Iraqi parliament, not the government, to draw up the rules of the next senate, with a two-thirds majority.” Visser concludes on an ominous note: “The Kurdish negotiating document is not only a step towards the complete destruction of the Iraqi state, it is also a flagrant violation of the constitution that the Kurds themselves supported back in 2005.”
Posted in Iraq, Kurds, Oil, Political Parties, Sectarianism, US foreign policy | Comment »
POMED Notes: “The Sudan Referendum: Dangers and Possibilities”
October 13th, 2010 by Jason
The Brookings Institution held an event today entitled “The Sudan Referendum: Dangers and Possibilities.” The featured speaker for the event was Representative Donald Payne (D-NJ), the chairman of the Subcommittee on Africa and Global Health, Committee on Foreign Relations, United States House of Representatives. The discussants for the event were Richard Williamson, non-resident fellow on foreign policy at Brookings, and Mike Abramowitz, director of the Committee on Conscience at the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum.
(For full notes, continue below the fold or go here for pdf.)
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Posted in Civil Society, DC Event Notes, Human Rights, Oil, Political Parties, Sectarianism, Sudan, US foreign policy, sanctions | Comment »
Iraq: Maliki’s “National Government of Futility”
October 5th, 2010 by Jason
Ranj Alaaldin writes at The Guardian’s Comment is Free that the deal reached to make Nouri al-Maliki the Prime Minister is one of compromises and back room deals. “This had always been the likely outcome,” Alaaldin writes, noting that the deal between Maliki’s State of Law party, the Sadrists, and the Kurds was based on “strategic bluffs and manoeuvring,” meant to force more concessions from Maliki. Alaaldin suspects that the Sadrists will receive “a total of six service ministries,” the release of many Sadrists currently in prison, and possibly one of the deputy prime minster positions. The Kurds want “disputed territories, oil and power-sharing,” and possibly the presidency. The Kurds desire to control Kirkuk is extremely controversial and “could slow the entire process down.” Alaaldin concludes that the deals necessary to form the government may doom it to ineffectiveness: “The forthcoming multi-party coalition government will ensure the politics will be paralysed and the disputes remain unresolved.”
Posted in Elections, Iraq, Kurds, Oil, Political Parties, Sectarianism | Comment »
Sudan: South Sudan Referendum Concerns
September 15th, 2010 by Jason
The vote on a referendum to determine whether southern Sudan becomes an independent nation is set to be held in just over four months. However, some question if the referendum will even be held. Rebecca Hamilton writes in the Washington Post “… with negotiations between north and south stalled over border demarcation, and preparations for the vote lagging perilously behind, the likelihood of the referendum proceeding as planned appears slim.” Others are worried that the focus on southern Sudan will cause the world to turn a blind eye to the on going crisis in Darfur: “The Sudanese government is taking full advantage of the inability of international actors to multitask and is beginning to implement a new strategy that will likely lead to further suffering among those who have survived the past seven years of conflict.” Yesterday, the ruling party in Sudan, the NCP, rejected a list of incentives offered by the U.S. to hold the referendum on time and as planned. A senior NCP official described the offer as an “intervention in the domestic affairs” of Sudan.
Posted in Civil Society, Oil, Sudan, US foreign policy | Comment »
Iraq: Drawdown Reactions, What Does it Mean for Democracy?
August 31st, 2010 by Jason
As combat troops are withdrawn from Iraq, questions remain about how this will affect its emerging democracy. Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Stephen Hadley argues, “The six-month stalemate in forming a new government is worrying, but virtually all Iraqi leaders accept the need for a broadly inclusive government.” Mohammad Bazzi believes that Iran has been the true beneficiary of the war, which may have repercussions across the region: “…the Iraq war has unleashed a new wave of sectarian hatred and upset the Persian Gulf’s strategic balance… the brutal war between Iraq’s Shiite majority and Sunni minority unleashed sectarian hatreds that are difficult to contain. This blowback has been most keenly felt in Lebanon…”. Bazzi adds, “Far from becoming a model of freedom and religious coexistence, Iraq remains a powder keg that could ignite sectarian conflict across the Middle East.” According to former U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker , “The difficulty and delays we have seen since the March elections illustrate the fundamental truth that everything in Iraq is hard…”. He goes on to list a few of the challenges facing the government once it is formed: “…it will have to wrestle with the tough issues… includ(ing) the structural and constitutional issues underlying much of the tension between Kurds and Arabs in the north — disputed internal boundaries, especially Kirkuk, and the authorities of the federal government in Baghdad vis-à-vis the Kurdish regional government in Irbil, including the control of armed forces.” Iraq’s Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki struck a more hopeful note, “Iraq today is sovereign and independent…our relations with the United States have entered a new stage between two equal, sovereign countries.”
Posted in Civil Society, Iran, Iraq, Kurds, Lebanon, Oil | Comment »
POMED Notes: “Iran Sanctions: Why Does the U.S. Government Do Business With Companies Doing Business in Iran?”
May 12th, 2010 by Josh
The Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee held a hearing to explore the history, efficacy, and enforcement of sanctions that target companies who do business with both the United States and Iran. The committee invited three individuals to provide testimony: Danielle Pletka, Vice President of Foreign and Defense Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute; Joseph Christoff, Director of International Affairs and Trade at the Government Accountability Office; and Congressman Ted Deutch (D-FL).
For POMED’s notes in PDF, click here. Otherwise, continue below the fold.
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Posted in Congress, Congressional Hearing Notes (Senate), Diplomacy, Iran, Legislation, Oil, US foreign policy, sanctions | Comment »
POMED Notes: Foreign Policy Priorities in the President’s FY2011 International Affairs Budget
February 25th, 2010 by Chanan
The Senate Committee of Foreign Relations hosted Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to discuss the FY2011 International Affairs Budget for the Department of State. Senator John Kerry (D-MA), chairman of the Committee on Foreign Relations, commenced the hearing by thanking Secretary Clinton for her hard work and travels. Citing a range of issues from the need to fight HIV/AIDS to the importance of supporting diplomats in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq, Kerry acknowledged that he “can’t think of a time in our history when we’ve had a greater need for energetic diplomacy to make the case for America globally.”
For POMED’s notes in PDF, click here. Otherwise, continue below the fold.
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Posted in Afghanistan, Congressional Hearing Notes (Senate), Egypt, Foreign Aid, Human Rights, Iran, Iraq, Oil, Saudi Arabia | 1 Comment »
Yemen: Necessity for Reform in the Midst of Mounting Disaster
January 26th, 2010 by Jessica
In an article for Sky News, Steve Davies reports on the Yemen Security Summit scheduled for tomorrow. Davies remarks that international concern regarding Yemen as a security threat has escalated dramatically since the Christmas Day terror attack by Umar Farouk Abdul Mutallab, a Nigerian member of al Qaeda based in Yemen. In response to the international concern over security and stability issues, the Yemeni government has attempted to become more proactive in prosecuting extremists, as shown by the jailing of seven terror suspects this week. The suspects were convicted of plotting attacks on tourists and foreign interests.
Journalist Ginny Hill in a Chatham House press release for her paper entitled, “Yemen: Fear of Failure,” was quoted as saying, “Future instability in Yemen could expand a lawless zone stretching from northern Kenya though Somalia and the Gulf of Aden to Saudi Arabia.” While Yemen has recently been cast into the spotlight of the international community, as early as 2008 Hill commented on the necessity for effective regional reform as a means of ensuring stability throughout the Middle East and Africa. Hill’s paper, published by Chatham House in 2008, comments on dwindling oil supplies and the effect that this shortage may have on Yemen’s economy
At the Huffington Post, Laura Liswood echoes many of the concerns voiced in Hill’s 2008 paper. She reports on a speech given by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, presenting alternatives for economic and social reform. Clinton’s speech focused the long term goals of global peace, security, and equitable life. Clinton was quoted as saying that development was transformative and, “an essential leg in the three-legged stool of defense, diplomacy, and development . . . Global stability depends upon all three efforts with equal commitment.” Much of the speech focused on the need for development for women and girls in Yemen’s political, social, and economic sphere. Liswood’s article commends Clinton’s recognition of social change regarding women, commenting on the fact that while security has been widely broadcast in the media, the plight of women and girls in Yemen has been largely ignored. A Gender Gap Index developed by the World Economic forum ranks Yemen last out of 134 countries regarding the status of women in political, economic, health, and education. Liswood’s article reports on alternative means of stimulating the economy through microfinance such as small loans and education aimed at women would aid in lowering fertility rates and moving families out of poverty.
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Human Rights, Oil, Women, Yemen, al-Qaeda | Comment »
Iraq: A Critical Year Ahead
December 22nd, 2009 by Jason
Kenneth Pollack warns that “while [Iraq] has made tremendous progress in both the security and political realms, all of those gains are fragile and could evaporate quickly if strained.” Pollack argues “the mistake we are in danger of making in Iraq is that as our military steps back, our civilians are not always stepping up.” If Iraqis begin to question our resolve, then ordinary Iraqis will have no choice but to support militias who might protect them in what they perceive as an impending civil war.
Fareed Zakaria also warns against forgetting the war in Iraq, contending that while the surge was a military success, Iraq has yet to resolve its fundamental political differences that preclude a stable future. Therefore, the Obama administration should maximize this opportunity to realize Iraq’s potential as an “extraordinary model for the Arab world.” While more pessimistic than Zakaria, Andrew Sullivan agrees this year will be “critical” in determining the ultimate success or failure of the war in Iraq.
John Hannah responds to the Iranian incursion into Iraqi territory. He argues that the incident proves that the Iraqi government is increasingly confident in protecting its sovereignty and Iraq has the potential to emerge as a “central pillar” in America’s struggle against violent Islamist extremism. Given the “flaccid U.S. response” to the incident, Hannah urges to “do far more to support our Iraqi friends.” While the incident has since died down, George Friedman argues Iran showed it might not wait for the U.S. to initiate a conflict. Now that Prime Minister Maliki has proven he is not an Iranian puppet but an Iraqi patriot, Hussain Abdul-Hussain argues the Gulf countries should “embrace a neighbor currently emerging from years of tyranny followed by civil strife.”
Finally, the AP reports a suicide bomber in northern Iraq has killed a city council chief, a member of the Turkmen minority affiliated with the Sunni Iraqi Islamic Party.
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Elections, Freedom, Iraq, Kurds, Military, Oil, Political Parties, Sectarianism, Terrorism, US foreign policy | Comment »
Yemen: The Need for a Broader Perspective?
December 22nd, 2009 by Jason
Time Magazine explores the potential fallout from U.S. assistance in strikes and raids against Al-Qaeda militants in Yemen. The article quotes Gregory Johnsen who warns “you can’t just go kill a few individuals and the al-Qaeda problem will go away,” especially when such attacks result in civilian casualties. As Mohammad Quhtan of Yemen’s opposition Islamist al-Islah party explains, “Al-Qaeda will be able to recruit a lot more young people, at least from the tribes that were hit.”
Instead, Johnsen repeats his call for (see our previous post) a broader American foreign policy that will undermine Al-Qaeda. He points to a Reuters article that describes how, in addition to al-Qaeda, falling oil income, water shortages, humanitarian crises, the Houthi conflict, and a southern separatist movement all contribute to Yemen’s instability.
Posted in Middle Eastern Media, Military, Oil, Political Parties, Public Opinion, Terrorism, US foreign policy, Yemen, al-Qaeda | Comment »
POMED Notes: “Saudi Arabia: The New Dynamics”
December 20th, 2009 by Jason
The Middle East Institute hosted a lecture by Thomas Lippman entitled “Saudi Arabia: The New Dynamics.” Lippman, who has been traveling to Saudi Arabia for over thirty years, recently returned from a month-long trip to the desert kingdom. While Lippman admitted there have been some “really bad books” written about Saudi Arabian history since September 11th, he is currently writing a new book that will focus on the country’s future.
For POMED’s notes in PDF, please click here. Otherwise, keep reading below the fold.
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Posted in DC Event Notes, Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Elections, Islam and Democracy, Lebanon, Oil, Reform, Saudi Arabia, US foreign policy, Women | Comment »
Iraq: Iranian Troops Enter Contested Oil Field
December 18th, 2009 by Jason
Iraq officials have confirmed that Iranian soldiers have entered Iraqi territory and claimed an oilfield whose ownership is disputed by Iran. A U.S. military spokesman stated “there has been no violence related to this incident and we trust this will be resolved through peaceful diplomacy between the governments of Iraq and Iran.”
During a trip to Iraq, Admiral Mullen affirmed that the Iraq drawdown will proceed as scheduled, despite delayed elections and a recent spike in bombings. Meanwhile, Iraqi forces are on alert after threats of violence during the coming Christmas holiday.
IraqPundit relays a conversation he had with laborers from Sadr City who expressed their discontent with Moktada al-Sadr as well as the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council. Instead, they plan to vote for Nouri al-Maliki “because he is not an extremist.” At the same time, IraqPundit reveals that many “Iraqis are disappointed in al-Maliki because he has presided over an extremely corrupt government, and he has failed to prevent terror attacks.”
The New York Times editorial staff warns that “the bitter discord between Iraq’s Kurdish regional government and the Shiite-Arab dominated central government - over land, oil and the power of the central government - is the most dangerous fault line in Iraq today.” Therefore, the situation calls for “deft and sustained American involvement.”
Finally, Peter Galbraith has written a statement clarifying his activities in Kurdistan concerning his role in advising the formation of the constitution and the negotiation of oil deals.
Posted in Afghanistan, Diplomacy, Elections, Iraq, Kurds, Legislation, Military, Oil, Political Parties, Public Opinion, Sectarianism, Secularism, Terrorism, US foreign policy, United Nations | Comment »
Iran: Gasoline Sanctions Counterproductive?
December 17th, 2009 by Jason
Debate still continues over the House passage of the Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act (IRPSA). Jeff Bergner argues the U.S. must “compel” Iran to negotiate through some combination of a naval embargo, targeted military action, a free leash for Israel, or crippling sanctions.
However, Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution argues against IRPSA. Instead, if the U.S. imposes enhanced sanctions, it must delineate clear and limited objectives, continue negotiations while imposing sanctions, seek international consensus, focus on direct and immediate costs, and target those responsible for human rights abuses, not the Iranian people.
Matt Duss agrees with Maloney, calling IRPSA not only “ineffective” but “counterproductive” as well. It offers “Iran’s hardliners a powerful propaganda lifeline, and would likely facilitate greater regime consolidation right at the moment that the conservative consensus around Ahmadinejad is starting to crack up.” Therefore it’s no wonder why the Green movement is against IRPSA and the administration is attempting to “put the brakes” on the Senate version.
Meanwhile, Eric Anderson urges to apply some “pragmatism to engaging with Iran” and realize that there is little the U.S. can do to stop an Iranian nuclear weapon. But Roger Cohen contends there is a lot the Iranian people can do. Therefore, when he is asked “where the ’stick’ is in Iran, [his] response is the stick is Iranian society - the bubbling reformist pressure now rising up from Iran’s highly educated youth and brave women.” Therefore, Cohen argues “the time has come to do nothing in Iran.”
Much of the push for enhanced sanctions stems from Iran’s failure to negotiate in good faith. Ray Takeyh in the Boston Globe explains how Ayatollah Khamenei created a new committee to oversee foreign affairs, comprised by members of Khamenei’s staff, the intelligence community and the head of the Revolutionary Guards. Takeyh argues it was this committee formed in October that scuttled the nuclear deal, not external dissent from opposition leaders and the Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani.
Babylon and Beyond offers further detail on the new trend of Iranian men posing in pictures wearing the veil out of solidarity with Majid Tavakoli, a student leader arrested for his activism. niacINsight reports that the government’s head of university affairs approximates 70 percent of university students oppose Ahmadinejad and has called for a stronger response against students and professors who are purportedly “weakening the regime.”
AFP reports that Iran’s judiciary also warned opposition leaders that it has accumulated enough evidence to try them, comparing them to “the regime’s most despised enemy, the People’s Mujahedeen.” Iason Athanasiadis observes that while the abuses of Evin Prison are well known, Iranians truly fear the “string of hidden detention sites” throughout Tehran.
Finally, niacINsight expresses its disappointment with Time Magazine over its decision to not include the Iranian people on their shortlist for Person of the Year, even though balloting showed greater support for the Iranian people compared to the second and third choices combined.
Posted in Congress, Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Freedom, Human Rights, Iran, Legislation, Military, Multilateralism, Oil, Protests, US foreign policy, US politics, Women, sanctions | Comment »
Iran: House Passes Gasoline Sanctions
December 16th, 2009 by Jason
As expected, the Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act (H.R. 2194) passed overwhelmingly in the House, with 412 voting for, 12 against, and 4 present. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fl) explained she hopes to “impose sanctions so painful that they should threaten the Iranian regime’s survival.” The sponsor of the bill, Rep. Howard Berman (D-Cali.), emphasized how “Iran has had ample time to respond positively to President Obama’s generous engagement offer. Regrettably, the response has been only one of contempt.”
But there was congressional opposition to the bill as well. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio) lamented how “we’re telling the Iranian people, ‘we have feelings of friendship for you. We like you so much, but we’re going to cut off your home heating oil.” Additionally, Rep. Ron Paul (R-Tex.) expressed his “strongest opposition” to this bill that represents “another significant step” towards war. Paul argued argued that history shows “it is citizens rather than governments who suffer most” under sanctions, which have been proven to only “strengthen regimes they target and marginalize any opposition.”
Laura Rozen reports the administration is “quietly working” to make modifications to the Senate version. Two issues being discussed are whether the sanctions would alienate America’s partners and whether the sanctions will be mandatory or allow the President to exercise discretion in their implementation. Under the House version, the president must seek a waiver in every case the sanctions would not be imposed.
In response to a letter sent by Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee stating that the sanctions legislation “might weaken rather than strengthen international unity and support for our efforts,” Jennifer Rubin calls the administration “a crowd that’s allergic to leverage.”
Rozen also reports that the State Department has asked the Treasury Department to allow Iranians to download free mass market software that enhances their ability to communicate. In response, NIAC President Trita Parsi lauded the decision that makes sure “the policies of the U.S. government don’t unintentionally aid the Iranian government’s efforts to silence its people.”
In a likely response to the legislation, Iran has test-fired an improved Sejil 2 solid-fuel missile, which has a range capable of striking Israel and U.S. bases throughout the region. Meanwhile, Tehran Bureau reports that the Iran’s Prosecutor General has confirmed the rape of opposition members in prison but rejected the involvement of prison guards. In addition, hundreds of of pro-govenrment and pro-opposition students held rival rallies in Tehran yesterday.
Meanwhile, Mohammad Saeedi has resigned as deputy director of Iran’s atomic energy body. Meir Javedanfar suggests the resignation may indicate infighting within the regime over nuclear negotiations. The regime also seems split over what to do with Mir Hossein Moussavi and other opposition leaders. Mea Cyrus at Tehran Bureau observes “the Islamic Republic of Iran is so fed up with post-election protests that it is willing to adopt extreme measures to bring them to an end,” even if it means imprisoning or assassinating opposition leaders like Moussavi.
Masoud Golsorkhi explains how the regime’s efforts to discredit Majid Tavakoli have backfired because they have failed to understand that the green movement is “a post-modern, post-ideological civic movement” where women are at the “forefront.” Finally, Omid Memarian argues the opposition have “entered a new phase” in protesting the Islamic regime itself, and not just the contested elections.
Posted in Congress, Diplomacy, Iran, Legislation, Military, Multilateralism, Oil, Protests, Technology, US foreign policy, US politics, sanctions | Comment »
Iran: Gasoline Sanctions Debate Today
December 15th, 2009 by Jason
The House is currently debating the Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act (H.R. 2194), and they will likely pass the legislation before the end of today. That news likely comfort Ephraim Kam, who writes in Haaretz that the West must impose “harsher sanctions” and threaten Tehran with potential violence.
Nonetheless, niacINsight urges the U.S. to “stand with the Iranian people” by opposing the Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act, which many members of the green movement have said would hurt the Iranian people and not the regime. Jamal Abdi warns such sanctions “may isolate us from our closest allies and biggest trading partners, pose momentous new challenges for our efforts in Afghanistan, Iraq and the greater Middle East, undermine the Iranian people’s struggle for democracy, and once again place the United States on the gave path towards military confrontation.”
Instead, niacINsight hails the introduction of the Stand with the Iranian People Act (SWIPA H.R. 4303) introduced by Rep. Keith Ellison (D-MN) and the Iranian Digital Empowerment Act (IDEA H.R. 4301) introduced by Rep. Jim Moran (D-VA). Both of these acts were introduced yesterday. SWIPA would enable Americans and Iranians to work together to promote human rights or for projects like building hospitals and schools, while also imposing targeted sanctions on the regime and companies that work with it. IDEA would legalize the transfer of communication and anti-censorship tools between the U.S. and Iran.
Arguing in favor of SWIPA and IDEA and against IRPSA, Patrick Disney contends, “the yardstick for an effective Iran policy is not how much pain and suffering it will cause among innocent Iranians. Rather, changing the policies and behavior of Tehran’s repressive government should be our ultimate goal. This means that when it comes to sanctions, bigger is not always better.”
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Posted in Congress, Diplomacy, Freedom, Human Rights, Iran, Islam and Democracy, Journalism, Judiciary, Legislation, Military, Oil, Protests, Technology, US foreign policy, US politics, sanctions | Comment »
POMED Notes: “Yemen Headlined: Contemporary Myths and Empirical Realities”
December 13th, 2009 by Jason
The National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations hosted a panel discussion on the current political, economic, and security situation in Yemen. The panel participants included Ambassador Barbara Bodine of Princeton University, Dr. Christopher Boucek of the Carnegie Middle East Program, Gregory Johnsen of Princeton University, Ambassador James Larocco of the National Defense University, and Dr. Mustafa Alani of the Gulf Research Center. The National Council’s president Dr. John Duke Anthony moderated the event.
For POMED’s full version of the notes in PDF, please click here. Otherwise, keep reading below the fold.
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Posted in Congress, DC Event Notes, Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Elections, Foreign Aid, Human Rights, Military, Oil, Saudi Arabia, US foreign policy, Yemen, al-Qaeda | Comment »
Iran: Gates Expects Significant Sanctions
December 12th, 2009 by Jason
Speaking in Erbil, Iraq, Secretary Gates said today that he expects the U.S. and its allies will impose “significant additional sanctions” on Iran because of Iran’s failure to follow through on negotiations. At the same time, he explained a military strike “would only buy some time, maybe two or three years.”
Danielle Pletka argues the U.S. should consider sanctions that are not just “inevitable,” but “effective” as well. Towards that end, she recommends several kinds of sanctions that will “hit hardest at the regime, and affect ordinary Iranians only incidentally.” However, Laura Rozen of Politico points to two more analyses of the recent Harvard simulation that “bode poorly for the pressure track the U.S. with support of some of its P5+1 partners is embarking on.” Nonetheless, she also notes that the simulation fails to adequately account for Europe’s role and consider an outcome between unilateral sanctions and UN Security Council sanctions.
insideIran reports that Iran’s Intelligence Minister Heydar Moslehi has launched an attack against reform-minded former president Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani. Moslehi accused Rafsanjani of espousing the views of the opposition after Rafsanjani stated last week that if the people of Iran no longer support Iran’s leaders, then they should no longer be in power. Meanwhile, Tehran’s Prosecutor announced that of the 204 protesters arrested during Student Day, 86 have been released and fate of the remaining detainees will be decided soon. Finally, in response to Majid Tavakoli’s arrest and government-staged photo of him wearing women’s clothing, opposition-minded men have come out in support by also wearing women’s clothing.
Despite the regime’s efforts, Mir Hossein Moussavi remains steadfast. The Economist quotes him warning the regime “In the streets, you are fighting with shadows. And your ramparts are collapsing, one by one, in the hearts of the people.” The article goes on to provide a history of events that have led from the disputed election in June to this week’s Student Day Protests, explaining how the protests seem to have radicalized under the increased brutality of the regime. Drewery Dyke in The Guardian calls on the international community to nurture “what hope there is” for human rights in Iran. Dyke also analyzes how the opposition have shown “the genie is now out of the bottle and there are signs that Iran’s governmental elites will have difficulty in putting it back.”
The Los Angeles Times editorial staff joins in, calling on the West to rhetorically and morally support the reform movement while also not undermining the cause “with too close an embrace.” Responding to President Obama’s reference to “the hundred of thousands who have marched silently through the streets of Iran,” Michael Ledeen warns that ”words aren’t nearly enough. But they are essential.” Jackson Diehl, meanwhile, wishes Obama had gone further in support of the Iranian opposition in the speech.
Lastly, Tehran Bureau offers a useful guide to Iranian media and describes their reputations and slants.
Posted in Democracy Promotion, Diplomacy, Elections, Freedom, Human Rights, Iran, Iraq, Journalism, Legislation, Middle Eastern Media, Multilateralism, Oil, Protests, US foreign policy, sanctions | Comment »
Iran: Regime at a Tipping Point?
December 10th, 2009 by Jason
Tehran Bureau reports that some pro-opposition students staged protests for a third day in a row, despite government warnings. Meanwhile, President Ahmadinejad has begun to receive some flack for his accusation that the America is preventing the return of the Hidden Imam, as religious scholars questioned Ahmadinejad’s authority to make such religious proclamations. Tehran Bureau also points to an interview with Shirin Ebadi by ABC, in which she promises “this regime will not last.”
The regime-affiliated Fars News Agency has published photos of leading student activist Majid Tavakoli disguised as a woman. Opposition members and human rights activists have responded harshly, claiming that Tavakoli was “severely beat[en]” during his arrest and forced to wear women’s clothing after being taken into custody. Such treatment has led to a new Amnesty International report that concludes respect for human rights in Iran has fallen to a 20-year low. The report urges Ayatollah Khamenei to allow U.N. human rights experts to conduct an investigation on human rights abuses in the country.
The Daily Star editorial staff observe “repression seems to be the government’s only response to opposition […] the regime has betrayed the Islamic Republic’s most sacred founding principles and sought to impose a SAVAK-style police state.” The real danger for the regime, they argue, is how such repression will “compound the pre-existing strains on the government, particularly unemployment, inflation, and other economic woes” that could result in a “highly combustible mix of public discontent.” Meanwhile, per Geneive Abdo in Foreign Policy, ”the circle around Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is hardening and shrinking - and more and more, his former allies are turning against him.”
Such public discontent has led to a rhetorical shift amongst the opposition from rejecting the June elections to opposing the Islamic regime itself, according to Amir Taheri in The Wall Street Journal. As such, Taheri contends the Iran has now reached a historical tipping point. In agreement, Andy McCarthy at NRO argues that ”The regime in Tehran, our enemy, is teetering on the brink of collapse.” As such, he calls for a “little push” through American rhetorical support and refined gasoline sanctions.
In fact, Laura Rozen reports that there has been a push in Congress, initiated by Sen. Jon Kyle (R-Ariz.), to pass the Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act by unanimous consent. The effort, for now, seems to have been halted with pressure from State Department and possibly a former or informal objection from at least one Senate office. Meanwhile, Robert Dreyfuss argues not only against imposing gasoline sanctions on Iran, but also against actively supporting the green movement. Such well-intentioned but misplaced support would allow Tehran “to refocus on the Great Satan’s interference in Iranian affairs” and make nuclear negotiations impossible.
Babak Siavoshy identifies one way the U.S. can help the Iranian opposition. According to Siavoshy, the U.S. should help Iranians gain “unfiltered Internet access, and take measures to curb censorship by the Iranian government.” Towards this end, the U.S. should invest in anti-filtering technologies, restrict sale of censorship technology to the Iranian government, make news more accessible, and protect the rights of bloggers.
Laura Rozen also reports that Iranian authorities have presented a list of Iranians they believe to be held by the U.S., asking for their release in exchange for the release of the three American hikers. The Iranian list is composed largely of Iranians who have been detained for illegal activities, such as purchasing military equipment for Iran, as well as purported nuclear defectors. According to one U.S. official, “we cannot afford to accept the Iranian frame that there is an equivalence between indicted arms dealers and innocent hikers who happen to wander across a hostile border.”
Finally, Sanaz Meshkinpour interviews Iranian director Mehran Tamadon, who has just completed a documentary about the Basij militia.
Posted in Congress, Diplomacy, Elections, Foreign Aid, Freedom, Human Rights, Iran, Islam and Democracy, Journalism, Oil, Protests, Publications, US foreign policy, US politics, United Nations, sanctions | Comment »
Iran: Protests Continue
December 9th, 2009 by Jason
The AP reports clashes between government militia and students continued for a second straight day, after over 200 protesters were arrested on Monday. Protesters “showed an increased fervor and boldness” as Basij threw stones and fired tear gas into the crowds. Meanwhile, Mir Hossein Moussavi and his wife were accosted by Basij militiamen as he tried to join the protests. He reportedly shouted at the militia, “You’re agents. Do whatever you’ve been ordered to do, kill me, beat me, threaten me.”
The New York Times also noticed a ratcheting up of rhetoric, with protesters burning photos of both Ayatollah Khamenei and Aytollah Khomeiniwhile waving Iranian flags that did not include the emblem of the Islamic revolution. Given this kind of rejection of the Islamic Revolution, the article admits “it has become unclear how much Mr. Mousavi speaks for the opposition, which includes many who appear to be taking a more radical approach and demanding an end to the theocracy.”
TPM has posted a photo gallery of the protests. The opposition will have more opportunities to coopt national holidays for protests soon, with both the holy month of Moharram and the anniversary of the Islamic revolution coming soon. Specifically, niacINsight reports that the next large demonstration is expected on December 12th, the six-month anniversary of the disputed June 12th elections.
But the opposition and regime continue to square off in other arenas besides street demonstrations. InsideIran reports that the government closed a major reformist newspaper in Iran while also announcing state-owned television will now broadcast more Islamic programming. In response to such crackdowns, Reporters Without Borders has launched a new campaign to support Iranian journalists. According to the organization, “the press freedom situation is getting worse by the day in Iran.” Meanwhile, niacINsight posts several examples of the “ingenious new strategy” to write pro-opposition slogans on bank notes.
The Christian Science Monitor explores how the regime’s security forces “are widening their net - and definition - of potential opponents as they try to stamp out months of dissent.” They specifically cite the plight of Parastou Forouhar who has been prevented from returning home to Germany after coming to Iran to commemorate the anniversary of the murder of her dissident parents. Such developments have led Massoumeh Torfeh to observe that “dissent is on the increase. And the government’s inability to deal with their demands strengthens the protesters’ resolve […] the opposition will continue and are likely to be joined by people from other layers of society who may object to planned substantial cuts in government subsidies.”
In an interview with Middle East Progress, Karim Sadjadpour contends “both the government and the opposition are in precarious positions. The regime hasn’t recouped its lost legitimacy, and will continue to lose supporters as the economic situation deteriorates. They increasingly resemble a military junta […] As for the opposition, its leadership and brain trust remains either in prison, under house arrest or unable to freely operate.” Responding to Sadjadpour, Steve Clemons argues “the sanctions path on trying to influence Iran’s behavior has more to do with providing a focus for American frustration and emotion than achieving a successful course correction with Iran.” Clemons elaborates, ”what the sanctions may do, however, beyond making those angry with Iran’s behavior feel better is help give Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the external provocation to further justify their actions and themselves and permit a further consolidation of power.”
In response to the Senate seeking to vote on the Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act under an expedited procedure, M.J. Rosenberg points to Lara Friedman of Peace Now. She observes the proposed gasoline sanctions would “target the Iranian people, in the hope that if the people become miserable enough they will pressure their government to change course.” However, Friedman contends “this is a strategy that few experts believe will work [and the] immediate result will be a backlash by the people of Iran against the United States, not against the Iranian regime” Nonetheless, Michael Rubin at NRO claims the Iranian diaspora are “hailing” proposed gasoline sanctions because “they understand that coercion conducted alongside diplomacy ofeten makes diplomacy more effective.”
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