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29
Oct
Politics and economics tend to make rather strange bedfellows, and I wanted to take a bit to discuss the relationship between the two in regard to China. One of Barak’s comments on a recent post of mine urged me to raise the issue again, as it’s obviously of current relevance given the calls for political change in China. Often in the past observers of Chinese politics have had their spirits raised at the prospect of political change, only to find themselves disappointed as the status quo is maintained, personally I expect about the same this time around. That being said, my focus in this post is to discuss the role of China’s economic successes in keeping the nation’s regime precisely as it is.
In reading over an article on Caixin Online I found myself pondering whether or not this push for political change might be different, and though the article was every bit as convincing as those in the past, my opinion remained unchanged. A few comments were made that seemed striking in pointing out the larger problem which led me to believe people are fooling themselves if they see change coming any time soon.
The strides made in economic reform over the years have been technical in a sense. A stalled political system has prevented major breakthroughs, while holding back cultural and social reforms as well.
A high price has been paid for this lack of progress, as evident in the many cases of forced demolitions of private property by local governments, harassment of citizen-petitioners trying to deliver grievances to Beijing, and corruption among government officials.
China’s economic successes of recent decades have certainly been artfully orchestrated, as have been the harsh political controls which occurred at the same time, stalling “breakthroughs” and putting a damper on social reform. Given the link between this economic growth and political control however, is it really reasonable to expect a shift in political power to follow while China’s economy continues to thrive? If one pays much attention to the responses coming from the regime in reaction to Premier Wen Jiabao’s recent commentary on the need for change, it seems hard to imagine democracy suddenly blossoming in the near future.
Not long after this most recent call for political reform gathered attention material presented in “People’s Daily” (the flagship news source for the Communist Party of China) called on the populace to resist any push toward multiparty democracy. At the same time, in the wake of the Nobel Peace Prize scandal, news has been increasingly presented on an ideological war the west is waging against China. This certainly doesn’t strike me as the first step toward a liberal democratic transition.
I would hardly be the first to raise the idea that economic growth can be used to support the existence of repressive regimes, and honestly I find myself puzzled that we still seem to assume economic liberalization leads ultimately to democracy. Without getting too academic on the subject it shouldn’t be surprising that people are comfortable accepting the status quo while at least economically it seems to be working. It would be wise for all of us interested in Chinese political affairs to consider how regularly well supported and successful regimes peacefully transition out of dominance.
- Published by Imara in: Blog
9 Responses to “Economic Success & Regime Change”
True enough. I wonder whether China can avoid a financial crisis on its road to economic development. I suspect the answer is no and wonder whether the political system can weather a crisis and remain in-tact. I suspect the answer to this question is no as well. This does not mean that I think China’s growth will stall or that it will become a democracy. Rather, I suspect its political system will need to evolve to address problems that economic development brings (e.g., increasing social polarization; better financial market regulation not to mention burden-sharing at the global level). I don’t know what the political system will look like, but I suspect it will not resemble the current one.
Agreed, really I suspect if we’re to see any political change in China’s near future it will be in the wake of financial problems rather than continuing prosperity.
China is taking the side effects of modernization rather than prosperity. Considering the definition of prosperity, China achieves economic development, but not prosperity, never. Call for political changes would happen because of disparities in Chinese society as well as financial problems. Rural people (peasants) and labors (many of them were peasants) will have the anxiety that they will never get any benefits from their own society, even though they have mostly contributed to economic development, social changes, and Chinese revolution. Mao was a great leader for some reasons , but his philosophy , his policy, and his political descendents finally betray his people.
Wow, Sue. Quite an indictment. I suspect that demands for political change will come from groups who feel excluded from the benefits of development. This could be folks in rural areas who are still poor or, in the event of an economic downturn, from those who were benefitting but no longer are.
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