More than 30 years after Iran's revolution, its political, military, and international activities continue to challenge and perplex its neighbors and many Western democracies. RAND research has informed and influenced U.S. policymakers on a range of topics, from engagement and containment and Tehran's ability to exploit pan-Islamic causes to Iran's ongoing development of nuclear capabilities.
REPORT
The U.S. must determine how best to promote long-term security and stability in the Persian Gulf region while seeking to reduce the risks and costs imposed by its role as a permanent regional power—particularly vis-à-vis Iraq's future, the role of Iran, asymmetric threats, regional tensions, and the roles of other external actors.
COMMENTARY
While the full extent of Iran's current clandestine influence remains murky, the "proxy narrative" is instructive more for what it reveals about Gulf insecurities than any truths about Iran's capabilities or intentions, write Frederic M. Wehrey and Dalia Dassa Kaye.
PERIODICAL
Features discuss energy strategies for Israel, the economic recession, and Iran's leadership; other items discuss the KC-10 fleet, air pollution and hospital costs, no-fault insurance, silica litigation, poverty reduction, and political polarization.
REPORT
The 2003 invasion of Iraq and the ensuing conflict in that country fostered the rise of Iranian power in the region, but with more limitations than is commonly acknowledged. It also diminished local confidence in U.S. credibility and created opportunities for China and Russia.
COMMENTARY
Iran's attempt to join the world's nuclear-weapons club is setting the stage for a military confrontation. Israel's view on the matter is clear—a nuclear-armed Iran is a threat to its existence. What will Iran do in the wake of an Israeli attack that Iran will almost certainly assume has U.S. support, asks David E. Johnson.
COMMENTARY
History shows that intervention is easier said than done. Past U.S. attempts to sway Iranian internal affairs have proven costly for U.S. interests. But between the extremes of doing nothing and doing everything, there is a middle ground, write Alireza Nader and Trita Parsi.
NEWS RELEASE
U.S. policymakers should take a nuanced view of Iran's complex system of government and politics when crafting foreign policy decisions about the Islamic Republic.
REPORT
When crafting policy decisions about Iran, the U.S. should take a nuanced view of its complex system of government and politics. Although Iran is a rising Middle East power, there has been no official diplomatic relations between the two nations since 1980, and Iran's decisionmaking process is far from transparent.
REPORT
In testimony before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs, James Dobbins explains why further international sanctions will probably not compel a change in Iran's nuclear policies nor cause a halt to those programs, but should nevertheless be pursued.
COMMENTARY
As the potential for a diplomatic solution to Iran's nuclear program wanes, the U.S. must consider what steps might dissuade Tehran from continuing its nuclear program without punishing the Iranian people or strengthening those who rule over them, chiefly the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, writes Alireza Nader.
COMMENTARY
When the Berlin Wall fell 20 years ago, those raised in the shadow of possible nuclear holocaust felt disbelief, followed by relief and hope that the end of the Cold War would bring lasting peace, and the end of conflict. And in Europe, at least, it mostly did – but not everywhere, writes Christopher S. Chivvis.
REPORT
Starting in 2008, the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy conducted a series of exercises to help the new U.S. administration address the challenges of the Arab-Israeli conflict (and of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in particular) as a key component of the broader effort to secure stability in the Middle East.
COMMENTARY
With much talk about how to "win hearts and minds" in the Muslim world, it's surprising that few are looking back to a global contest of ideas that the U.S. and its allies categorically won: the Cold War, write Todd C. Helmus and Dalia Dassa Kaye.
COMMENTARY
The revelation of a secret nuclear facility near the holy city of Qom, and the likely existence of other advanced facilities across Iran, makes more urgent the need for a quick solution to the nuclear impasse, writes Alireza Nader.
REPORT
Many analysts have examined the media that violent extremists use to communicate their core messages. Far less research, however, has been devoted to the growing body of creative works produced by Arab authors and artists that counter the intellectual and ideological underpinnings of violent extremism.
COMMENTARY
Obama's decision to alter course on missile defense was the right choice. Those who call it a capitulation to Russia are wrong, and it plays into Russia's hands to portray the decision in that manner. But the change of course will have to be complemented with more appropriate initiatives, writes Christopher S. Chivvis.
COMMENTARY
Critics of the Bush administration missile defense plans for Central Europe have charged that the U.S. would be deploying defenses that did not work against a threat that did not exist. It would also defend countries not threatened by Iran, while leaving Iran's more likely victims entirely uncovered, writes James Dobbins.
REPORT
China is a global actor of significant and growing importance, now integrated into the international system and altering that system's dynamics. The complexity of China's ever-changing global activism raises questions about its intentions and the implications for global stability and prosperity.
COMMENTARY
In hindsight, KGB analysts and Soviet officials were extraordinarily prescient about the perils of Islamist terrorism and the fallout from the Afghan jihad. But could Russia, for all its faults and foibles, be a more valuable counterterrorism partner today, asks Brian Michael Jenkins.
COMMENTARY
The question today is no longer whether the United States can still prevent North Korea and Iran from emerging as nuclear-armed regional adversaries, but instead, how to prevent them from being empowered by their nuclear weapons. This won't be easy, writes Lowell H. Schwartz.
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