martin horn's comments

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Jan 12th 2011 4:56 GMT

TCDPhilSec: "The rest of the world is an entertaining place where readers will believe whatever they are told by the 20-year old Oxbridge intern, masking his youth with anonymity and grave tone."

Readers such as yourself? You do realize that by visiting this site, you're increasing its traffic, which in turn makes it more valuable to marketers, thus increasing the financial rewards to the Economist.

In other words, TCDPhilSec, for a guy who apparently thinks the Economist is a bad news magazine with an ugly attitude and writers who lack gravitas, you seem awfully eager to help them stay relevant and financially successful.

Jan 10th 2011 9:43 GMT

Some Tea Partiers are feeling embattled because a fellow gold-standard lover went on a killing spree that has led to millions of people developing a negative stereotype about all Tea Partiers.

This stereotype is forming based on the actions of a one-in-a-million murderer who possibly warped their beliefs into justifying violence.

Perhaps this will lead to some empathy for Muslim Americans, millions of whom live peacefully in the United States and lead productive lives as soldiers, doctors, policemen, teachers, etc., only to labeled as a possible fifth column every time a small group of 5 attempt (and usually fail) to kill Americans.

But considering how empathy has become a taboo word to some, I'm not holding my breath....

Jan 10th 2011 9:36 GMT

You all know I'm not a fan of Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck, or Michelle Bachmann.

However, to be absolutely blunt, those three people have millions of fans who hang onto their every word. I'd wager over 50% of those fans has a gun.

As coldhearted as it sounds, I'm going to need to see more than 1 "unconfirmed fan" a year killing people for me to be convinced that those three are sending a signal endorsing violence driven by political ideology.

Jan 6th 2011 9:13 GMT

For what's it worth, based on my experiences during my medical training, if I had to explain why we have more teen pregnancies, I would it explain it in the following way:

1. Teenagers everywhere have the urge to have sex. (That should be a given)

2. There is greater expectation in the U.S. than in Europe for the parents to take the lead in teaching kids about sex and protection. Also, the U.S. is more in favor of the "delay sex" than "practice safe sex" approach than Europe.

3. In Europe, pro-contraception education is more prevalent both in terms of public health campaigns as well as sex education in schools. Combating teenage sex is viewed more as a lost cause, so the battle is shifted towards getting the teens to practice safe sex. By contrast, parents in the U.S. are more likely to object to their kids being taught about sex in schools (in part because of Americans' religiosity as well as the belief that parents should be the ones teaching the kids).

4. Taking points 1 through 3, I would say that the average European teenager views sex as okay and knows how to use contraception. In the USA, you have differing groups of teens:
Those who view sex as okay and know how to use contraception,
Those who view sex as immoral and may or may not know how to use contraception, and
Those who view sex as okay but do NOT know how to use contraception. Our teen pregnancies and teenage abortions come from teens in the latter group.

The point I'm trying to make is that the abstinence only method can work, but it's heavily reliant on parents impressing the point on their kids while raising them. Sometimes in the U.S., parents preach the abstinence approach and the kids don't listen. Failure to teach the kids how to use contraception means that when kids opt against abstinence, the result is pregnancy.

Jan 5th 2011 4:50 GMT

To sum this all up nice and succinctly.
Efforts to limit contraception use by teenagers increases births and increases abortions. The one thing it most certainly does NOT do is limit teenage sex.

How you respond to that reality is heavily influenced by your ideology, but the facts are clear.

Dec 30th 2010 5:27 GMT

I believe you are over-complicating this somewhat.

From my experiences talking with people of various political beliefs, fervent liberals are typically just as "proud, at least unapologetic, and sometimes belligerent about their beliefs" as the devout conservatives and libertarians you mention in your blog post.

The reason why the liberal election majorities are seen as more eager to appear bipartisan than the conservative election majorities is, simply put, a numbers game. Self-described conservatives outnumber self-described liberals 2 to 1. In the end, both groups need to recruit moderates/independents to their cause to win, but conservatives have to do far less recruiting because they already have 35% of the electorate while liberals are starting out with below 20%.

Lexhumana explains this as America being a center-right nation, and certainly by the standards of, say, OECD nations, we would be considered center right. What's the theme since 1980? Conservative Republicans like Ronald Reagan and George Bush being re-elected with over 50% of the vote, a moderate Republicans like George H.W. Bush being elected and then defeated in 1992 by a conservative/centrist Democrat with the help of a libertarian-esque candidate named Ross Perot. The difficulty liberals have in achieving an electoral majority is neatly encapsulated by the following statistic: President Obama is the first Democrat in decades to win over 50% of the vote - not even Clinton managed to achieve that.

When most of your election majorities are non-liberals, you can't be too liberal.

Dec 29th 2010 4:22 GMT

Lastly: I freely admit that on this issue, we practice "nationalist morality."

However, to be blunt, if an American Coast Guard Helicopter that is running low on fuel sees a group of 4 American citizens drowning in the stormy seas, and a group of 12 non-American citizens drowning far away (meaning that the helicopter only has enough fuel to save one group), does anyone here think that the helicopter should abandon the American citizens?

Objectively, saving 12 innocent people is better than saving 4 innocent people, all else being equal. Yet as American taxpayers, most of us would prefer that the helicopters we fund put a priority on saving us. Likewise, by the nature of who pays for public services, American citizens are going to demand that public policy favors them.

This paper argues that immigration helps America as a whole but Americans want to clamp down on illegal immigration because of the belief that the phenomenon is uncontrolled and the immigrants benefit without having to share some of the costs of public services. So the clear solution to this problem is to increase LEGAL immigration and dramatically limit ILLEGAL immigration. That way, legal immigrants pay taxes, meaning that in addition to gaining the benefits of living in America, they pay some of the costs.

Dec 29th 2010 4:09 GMT

Look, to be clear, I favor immigration, and agree that the benefits to the immigrants themselves are immense (because that's why they come here). However, there is simply no way an uncontrolled flood of low-skilled immigrant labor is good for the low-skilled native labor force.

As someone pointed out, apparently this paper strongly suggests that native workers as a whole benefit from illegal immigration. And I agree to an extent: if a flood of illegal immigrants comes to the U.S., doctors benefit from having more patients to treat, lawyers benefit from having more clients to represent, business owners benefit from having cheaper labor and more customers to lure into their stores, and skilled workers as a whole benefit from having cheaper workers to tend to their lawns and watch over their kids, so I can see how low-skill immigration benefits skilled Americans. It's the low skilled Americans who compete with those immigrants that I worry about.

Also: I'm not worried about the supposedly "non-assimilating" Mexican immigrants - whenever I meet a family, you invariably have some of the older members with poor English skills, but the youngest, American-born members have perfect English skills, wear the same crap as 7th-generation American kids and listen to the same crummy music (i.e., they assimilated). I'm just worried that the sheer numbers of immigrants that migrate to this country illegally depresses the wages of low-skilled Americans, which then exacerbates income inequality. Anyone who doesn't think it's an issue should therefore support an uncontrolled flood of members of their profession, be it overseas doctors, lawyers, computer programmers, engineers, etc.

Dec 29th 2010 4:00 GMT

To echo something forsize pointed out, "not so sure every native worker has a skill advantage on a poor immigrant though."

There are plenty of natives (far too many, in my opinion) who simply DO NOT have a skill advantage. Can anyone name 3 skill advantages an American high school dropout (20% of the population according to most estimates except the government's, which believes "a promise to eventually get a GED means they are not a dropout") has over the average Mexican illegal immigrant?

The biggest and obvious one, language, really doesn't matter in the world we live in. To be blunt, if there were only a few thousand illegal immigrants in the U.S. from Spanish-speaking countries, then yes, people who "Solamente hablo espanol" would be at a competitive disadvantage to Americans who speak English (even Americans without high school degrees).

However, with so many Spanish-speaking migrant workers, it's possible to have entire teams of handymen, landscapers, construction workers, movers, etc. who all speak Spanish compete with native English speakers for work, so long as the foreman/team leader can speak passable English and deal with the customer/client on behalf of the team.

Dec 21st 2010 6:31 GMT

One more thing: While I do feel that some people go a little overboard in trying to paint Barbour as racist based on the watermelon quip (I think he's just insensitive, not bigoted), I do think some people here are going a little overboard in trying to pretend there's *nothing* wrong with the quip.

Pretend I'm a politician. Imagine if someone on my staff complained about having Jewish people at an upcoming event in Boca Raton by referring them as "hook-nosers" (analogous to the "coon" reference made by a Barbour staffer). Imagine if in the course of me telling the idiot staffer off, I warned that if my aide persisted in anti-Semitic remarks, he "would be reincarnated as a pinata filled with money and placed at the mercy of Jews."

Would the people here arguing that the Barbour quip is *nothing* be comfortable with me as a candidate saying what I wrote above? After all, just as all people love watermelon, all people love money. I'm not Jewish, but if I saw a pinata filled with money, I'd grab the closest baseball bat and bust it up till the money came out.

Still, despite the universal love of money that transcends race and religion, what I wrote above is insensitive and inappropriate, just like Barbour's quip about watermelon. Barbour is making a racially insensitive remark. That doesn't make him a KKK-supporting racist (not even close), but it also doesn't mean he's above reproach for the remark.

Dec 21st 2010 2:24 GMT

In my opinion, Haley Barbour is not a racist. He's just someone who thinks African-Americans are overly sensitive about their history of being enslaved, discriminated against, and used as cannon fodder in most of America's wars.

Personally, I view that attitude as "incorrect" or "wrongheaded," to put it mildly, but I'm wary of throwing around the term "racist" at everyone who disagrees with me on any issue related to race.

Dec 21st 2010 2:21 GMT

Whenever I think of Haley Barbour, I think of this example of,

"How not to run for President": Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour, a possible Presidential candidate in 2012, was profiled in The Weekly Standard this week, and he talked about growing up during the Civil Rights movement in the South. He mentions attending a rally by Martin Luther King Jr. (Good), but then says he actually didn't hear anything MLK had to say, so he and his friends just checked out the ladies the whole time (Not so good).

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1210/Barbour_in_the_civil_rights_...

Dec 16th 2010 9:55 GMT

This "tax and unemployment benefits compromise" with President Obama was a direct confirmation of my suspicions, made all the more delightful by the fact that the new Republican majority hasn't even taken office yet, but they're already agreeing to "tax-cut and spend" packages like the good old days.

Dec 16th 2010 9:54 GMT

Well, based on *very* recent history, we can expect the Republicans to stand for lower spending for so long as Democrat is the President of the United States.

Should Republicans control the executive branch, Washington, D.C. can look forward to double-digit percentage increases in spending and new, unfunded entitlements and tax breaks.

I don't see any reason to believe differently, with a majority of the Republicans on Capitol Hill having been part of the tax cut and spend spree of the early 2000s.

Dec 15th 2010 10:14 GMT

"And apart from the aesthetic considerations—we keep coming back to the word "unseemly", and I think "sentimental" might be another contender—what's the harm?"

Meh - the President should focus on leading first, being an emotional coach second. I can see harm but no upside from the President going all sentimental on us.

For example, Rex Ryan, the Coach of the New York Jets, buried a football from the game that they lost badly to the rival New England Patriots. Symbolically, it was supposed to allow them to bury any demons from the football game in which both the defense and offense made many mistakes.

The following week, the Jets were humiliated by the Miami Dolphins, another team they had beaten previously, after making many of the same mistakes they made against the Patriots.

The burial of a football was a nice gesture, but what the Jets actually needed was a change in strategy and accountability for their poor play against the Patriots. Because they didn't get that from their coaches, Rex Ryan is on his way to opening a football cemetery.

To sum up the long analogy: Yeah, the country could use a pep talk. However, repeatedly talking about how awesome America is, while millions of Americans are suffering and right before asking America to make sacrifices and difficult choices in tax and spending reform, is unhelpful at best and counterproductive at worst. President Obama and the Republicans need to chart a path towards progress because ultimately that's why President Obama promised in his election speeches - progress, not compliments.

Dec 15th 2010 12:17 GMT

To second shaun39 and hedgefundguy, I would imagine the "unprecedented" fiscal tightening by the British government will do plenty to combat inflation.

Dec 14th 2010 4:30 GMT

RR: "Really? I don't remember much liberal support for the Florida pastor's Quran burning."

And judging from the conservative reaction to ants crawling on a Cross for 11 seconds in a video that 99% of Americans will never see, I'm guessing conservatives wouldn't support a Michigan mosque's Bible burning.

So let's agree that while we have the right to burn books, burning religious books pisses both groups off, but to different degrees depending on which book is burnt.

President Obama, politically, is doing okay. He has a 45 to 50% approval rating with unemployment barely under 10%. I can only assume that with any economic improvement, his rating will improve slightly, so he can look forward to running for re-election with an approval rating near 50% - not Clinton-levels, but certainly better than Bush-levels, both of whom won re-election.

That being said, I think we need to stop assuming all of the President's political moves that seem shaky or haphazard or ill-thought out are potentially genius moves in disguise, in wake of his party losing 60 seats in the House. The fact that polling shows voters being in a more "anti-Democrat" than "pro-Republican" mood doesn't exactly make Obama's strategic moves with regard to legislation and communicating with the public look good.

Dec 10th 2010 11:38 GMT

The Department of Liberation
(*Rules and Restrictions May Apply)

Thanks, Tzimisces. I've been trying to explain that to all of my friends who sent around the article in a fit of righteous indignation.

This is not a scenario of: "We have enough money to help everyone, but we're just going to help half of the people because we're curious and heartless."

The situation is simple. Normally, if there's enough money to help 1000 people, the first 1000 qualified applicants to enroll are helped, and the next 1000 are told to enroll and wait in line.

In this scenario, all 2000 are enrolled, and then half of them are randomly chosen to receive aid, while the other 1000 receive calls to see how they're doing.

The office that manages this program is still helping out everyone it can. Now, it's tracking the folks it can't help, to see how they fare.

Beta v1.3

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