Egypt: Opposition Woes
December 16th, 2010 by Jason
In a letter written shortly after the parliamentary elections, Issandr El Amrani analyzes how the outcome will effect Egypt’s opposition, saying that the Muslim Brotherhood was “reeling,” the Wafd Party may be preparing to “fold back and regroup, preparing for the post-Hosni moment,” and Taggamu is in the middle of a “leadership crisis.” Opposition groups “have little choice but to retreat and wait out succession, and work on their grassroots.” Amrani argues in the letter that the possibility of an opposition “grand coalition” is unlikely due to a lack of leadership. He does say that members of the opposition that advocated for a boycott were “vindicated” by the results, and that this might increase the influence of Mohamed ElBaradei, especially if ElBaradei “show[s] a greater willingness to lead the opposition.”
Posted in Civil Society, Egypt, Elections, Muslim Brotherhood, Political Parties | Comment »
Egypt: Trouble Ahead for NDP
December 14th, 2010 by Jason
Michele Dunne and Amr Hamzawy write in a recent article that the parliamentary elections in Egypt “solved” one problem for the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) by ending the Muslim Brotherhood presence in parliament, but created “a host” of other issues. Dunne and Hamzawy argue that the “three components of legitimacy—voter turnout, a fair electoral process, and balanced representation in the legislative branch combined with its relative autonomy from the executive branch,” have effectively ceased to exist, bringing Egyptian politics to a “new low.” The authors foresee two other problems for the NDP: Legal challenges to the new parliament, which have already begun, and the “political cause for concern” of how the NDP will handle the upcoming presidential race in 2011. “The last thing the NDP wants is real opposition competition for the presidency, but the second-to-last thing it wants is the appearance of no competition at all.”
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Judiciary, Muslim Brotherhood, Political Parties | Comment »
Egypt: Opposition to Form Shadow Parliament, Former MPs Rally
December 13th, 2010 by Jason
Former members of parliament plan to create a “shadow parliament” to protest the recent parliamentary elections. The group includes members of Wafd Party, the Muslim Brotherhood, and independents. Former MP’s also rallied Monday in front of the State Council Court in Cairo to support the shadow parliament. “The establishment of this democratic People’s Assembly is an act of popular civil disobedience,” said Hamdeen Sabbahi, a former MP from the Karama Party. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said in a speech Sunday that “‘As president of Egypt, I wish the rest of the parties had achieved better results…And I wish they hadn’t wasted their efforts in arguments about boycotting the election and then actually participating in it, and then announcing that they are withdrawing from the election over doubts about its results.’”
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Muslim Brotherhood, Political Parties | Comment »
Egypt: Opposition Protest Highlights “Illegitimate” Parliament
December 13th, 2010 by Evan
Opposition party members took to the streets of Cairo to protest Egypt’s new parliament on Sunday (BBC video here). The demonstrators represented a wide spectrum of Egypt’s opposition, including the Muslim Brotherhood, the liberal Wafd and Ghad parties, and the leftist Tagammu. “All political factions are here to announce the illegitimacy of the ruling regime. These shameless elections were the final nail in this regime’s coffin,” activist Gamal Fahmi told Al-Masry Al-Youm. At Time, Abigail Hauslohner described the protests and the opening of the new parliament Monday as the “first day of a new era.” There is a growing consensus in Egypt that the regime went too far in rigging the parliamentary vote: “Both the Brotherhood and the liberal Wafd boycotted the run-off vote; others had boycotted the entire process. The bulk of Egypt’s opposition now finds itself on the outside of parliamentary politics, with some of the unlikeliest of allies now apparently joining hands to craft a new strategy for what may be a moment of opportunity.”
Posted in Civil Society, Egypt, Elections, Muslim Brotherhood | Comment »
Egypt: ElBaradei Interviewed
December 7th, 2010 by Jason
Der Spiegel has released an interview with Mohamed ElBaradei. In the interview, Elbaradei is asked about the recent parliamentary election and specifically “Why was there a lot more interference and manipulation this time?” He answered that “[t]he regime is more desperate and more nervous than it has ever been before during the 29 years that (Egyptian President) Hosni Mubarak has been in power. […] The regime also fears the presidential elections next year. For Mubarak and his people, this poll was a test run for oppression.” In response to a question about his “expectations” of the next parliament ElBaradei replied, “It will function like the Duma in Moscow during the darkest days of the Soviet era. As a consequence, the opposition will close ranks even further. The religious-conservative Muslim Brotherhood and my own National Association for Change will be working together to bring about change.”
Posted in Civil Society, Egypt, Elections, Muslim Brotherhood | Comment »
Egypt: The Brotherhood’s Decision
December 7th, 2010 by Evan
In a new piece for Al Masry Al Youm, Issandr El Amrani explains the challenges facing the Muslim Brotherhood moving forward. As the Egyptian government increases pressure on the Brotherhood ahead of the 2011 presidential vote, the organization must choose “whether it wants to be a quietist religious movement, a banned political party lobbying the regime for a margin of toleration, or the conservative element of a national coalition fighting for greater democracy.” In recent years, the organization has tried to be all three at different times, El Amrani writes, adding that this strategy has “obviously not delivered great results.”
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Muslim Brotherhood | Comment »
Egypt: “The Curtain is Up”
December 1st, 2010 by Jason
Khalil Al-Anani writes at the Daily News Egypt that “[t]he sole outcome of the recent Egyptian parliamentary elections is a powerless assembly.” Recalling events since the surprising success of the Muslim Brotherhood in the elections of 2005, along with the steps the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) has taken to neutralize the influence of the Brotherhood, Al-Anani says the message is clear: “no more politics for the MB.” Jack Shenker, who covered the elections for the Guardian, describes the experience as “surreal,” and calls the elections “a (not particularly artful) piece of stagecraft by Egypt’s political elite.” Both writers feel that the contentious elections are only a precursor to further unrest. Al-Anani concludes his article by saying “if the NDP has managed to eliminate the MB in the parliament, the real battle is still ongoing in the street, which, undoubtedly, will be fierce.” Shenker, who decries the support Western governments have shown for the current regime, says “[t]he curtain is up – and the drama has just begun.”
Posted in Civil Society, Egypt, Elections, Muslim Brotherhood | Comment »
Egypt: MB, Wafd to Boycott Second Round of Elections
December 1st, 2010 by Evan
Egypt’s two largest opposition movements, the Muslim Brotherhood and the Wafd Party, said they will
boycott the second round of parliamentary voting to protest massive government fraud during the first round. A Wafd party spokesperson
told Reuters that the party is also considering giving up the seats it won outright in the first round of the election.
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Muslim Brotherhood, Political Parties | Comment »
Egypt: Final Results of the First Round Announced
December 1st, 2010 by Jason
The final results of the first round of the Egyptian parliamentary elections have been announced. From Al Masry Al Youm: “Results announced Tuesday showed the ruling party has so far secured 209 seats. Opposition parties won seven seats–liberal Wafd (3), leftist Tagammu (1), the Moussa Moustafa faction of the Ghad party (1), Social Justice (1), and the Democratic Peace party (1). Seven independent candidates were also elected in parliament.” These results do not include seats that were not won outright (i.e. races where no one candidate was able to win 50% or more of the vote) in the first round. The second round of elections will be held Sunday, December 5th.
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Muslim Brotherhood, Political Parties | Comment »
Egypt: “Full-Blown, Unabashed Dictatorship”
November 30th, 2010 by Jason
Jack Shenker writes that early results from the Egyptian elections “suggest that the ruling National Democratic party (NDP) has captured 96% of the seats, while the 88 opposition members from the Muslim Brotherhood, could be erased to zero.” Shenker interviewed Shadi Hamid of the Brookings Institution for the article: “‘We knew it was going to be bad, but I don’t think anyone realised it was going to be this bad,’” Hamid said. “‘Egypt has joined the ranks of the world’s most autocratic countries. Now we’re talking full-blown, unabashed dictatorship.’”
Maggie Michael, reporting for the Associated Press, covers the reactions of Egyptian opposition groups to the election. The Wafd Party released a statement saying “‘The ruling party’s undemocratic practices … raped its legitimacy with its assault on the law and the constitution,’” while Mohammed Badie of the Muslim Brotherhood called the elections “‘invalid.’”
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Muslim Brotherhood, Political Parties | Comment »
Egypt: MB Leader Calls for U.S. Support
November 29th, 2010 by Evan
Newsweek’s Babak Dehghanpisheh recently interviewed Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohammad Badie. Over the course of the conversation, Badie explained the logic behind the Brotherhood’s decision to participate in the elections, shared his thoughts on the government crackdown before the election, and rejected assertions that the organization’s goal is to establish an Islamic state in Egypt. On the U.S. role in Egypt Badie said, “American administrations keep supporting regimes that are undemocratic. This is what gains them the hatred of the people in the street—even though their interests lie with the people. The governments will come and go, but it’s the people who stay. The Statue of Liberty can’t be divided into different parts. You can’t defend the freedom of one people in one place and not of another people in another place.”
Posted in Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Political Islam, Political Parties | Comment »
Egypt: Voter Turnout Lower than Expected
November 28th, 2010 by Evan
Shadi Hamid has a new piece on voter turnout in Egypt. According to Hamid, unlike voters in other Arab countries, Egyptians have largely ignored the parliamentary vote. Part of the reason for voter apathy is that the Egyptian political scene is largely void of “distinctive political programs.” On one side there is the National Democratic Party (NDP), which uses clientelism to bring some voters to the polls and on the other there is the Muslim Brotherhood, which motivates its members to vote through social compulsion. Al Masry Al Youm also has a report on turnout, which according to its sources, was even lower than expected.
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Muslim Brotherhood, Political Parties | Comment »
Egypt: Brotherhood “Resigned to the Reality of Rigged Elections”
November 28th, 2010 by Jason
Shadi Hamid writes at Democracy Arsenal that “[i]n numerous districts, opposition representatives were not allowed in the voting room (only those with the NDP were). Which means that the ruling party could pretty much do as it willed […] When the Ministry of Interior transports the ballot boxes in a couple hours, the world – let us be clear – will not be watching.” After speaking with a Muslim Brotherhood representative, Hamid concludes that “[t]hey lost this battle, and they will lose many, many more, but they seem to believe that history is on their side. So they’re okay with waiting. The real question, though, is whether Egypt can afford to wait, and wait.”
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Muslim Brotherhood | Comment »
Egypt: NPD Ups Pressure on Muslim Brotherhood
November 26th, 2010 by Evan
On Wednesday, Egypt’s ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) filed a report with the Office of the Prosecutor General calling on it to investigate 52 “members of an illegal organization” running as independent candidates for parliament. The NDP’s complaint appears to refer to candidates associated with the Muslim Brotherhood, which while technically illegal in Egypt, openly participates in politics. The statement suggests that some within the NDP “could be trying to shift toward treating the Muslim Brotherhood like a truly illegal organization, rather than its long-held ‘illegal but tolerated’ status,” POMED’s executive director Stephen McInerney said. In a separate statement to reporters Thursday, NDP spokesman Ali El Din Hilal said “We will not accept the transformation of Egypt into a religious state … We want a system based on citizenship, not on religion.” The Egyptian government has long allowed the Muslim Brotherhood to operate and given tacit approval for its candidates to participate in elections as independents.
The Christian Science Monitor’s Dan Murphy adds that the environment for the upcoming election is “markedly different from the one five years ago.” The NDP has given the Brotherhood much less freedom to campaign: “Popular Brotherhood MPs have been dogged by police details everywhere they go, supporters have been beaten at campaign events, and the leader of their bloc in parliament, Mohammad al-Katatni, says he was attacked by a mob while driving home earlier this week,” Murphy writes.
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Islamist movements, Muslim Brotherhood | Comment »
Egypt: The Brotherhood Vote
November 24th, 2010 by Evan
In a new article in The Daily News Egypt, Khalil Al-Anani analyzes the Muslim Brotherhood’s electorate. According to Al-Anani, there are three broad categories of potential Brotherhood voters: (1) those who are committed to the organization’s religious and political ideology and pay membership dues; (2) those who are sympathetic to its religious views and benefit from its social subsidies but do not formally participate in its activities; and (3) protest voters who want to vote against the ruling National Democratic Party. This year, the Brotherhood faces many challenges getting these voters to the polls, Al-Anani writes: “In many constituencies, the group will not be able to mobilize its regular electorate as it used to,” Al-Anani writes.
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Muslim Brotherhood | Comment »
Egypt: Will Parliamentary Elections Influence the 2011 Presidential Race?
November 24th, 2010 by Evan
Issandr El Amrani recently authored a piece for the International Relations and Security Network’s (ISN) Insights series on the process, outcome, and potential effect of the upcoming Egyptian parliamentary elections. The constitutional amendments passed in 2007, voter apathy, and the weakness of Egyptian opposition parties mean that there is “no great suspense about the outcome,” El Amrani writes. The real significance of the elections, according to El Amrani, will be their effect on the 2011 Egyptian presidential election: “The regime may desire as tame a parliament as possible during this transition, and seats at the People’s Assembly will afford parties and individuals some room for negotiation during this delicate time […] the presence of strong opposition voices inside and outside formal structures like parliament, even if limited, could influence the direction of the new regime and force it to take into account the growing number of voices seeking real change.”
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Islamist movements, Muslim Brotherhood | Comment »
Egypt: NDP Accuses Brotherhood of Stealing Platform, Sparking Violence
November 23rd, 2010 by Evan
Tension between the Muslim Brotherhood and the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) continues to grow following the recent arrests of Brotherhood members and parliamentary candidates. Al Masry Al Youm reports that on Tuesday, NDP Secretary Ahmed Ezz said that the Brotherhood is trying to “steal” NDP’s achievements and Ali Eddin Helal, NDP Information Secretary, accused the Brotherhood of inciting violence. In The Guardian, Jack Shenker reports that while Brotherhood candidates have no delusions about the likely outcome of the parliamentary elections, they are campaigning enthusiastically and believe that the upcoming election will strengthen their hand ahead of the 2011 presidential election.
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Muslim Brotherhood | Comment »
Egypt: Brotherhood Expected to Lose Seats
November 23rd, 2010 by Jason
In an article in Al Masry Al Youm, Noha El-Hennawy says that the Muslim Brotherhood is expected to suffer a “remarkable retreat” in Sunday’s election and will likely be replaced with the liberal Wafd party. As El-Hennawy explains, the unprecedented success of the Brotherhood in 2005, when the outlawed group won 88 seats with members running as independents, has lead the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) to crackdown on the party. Wafd party looks to be in the best position to capitalize on this turn of events, although Mohamed Sherdy, the Wafd Party’s official spokesman, seems less optimistic: “‘I was pro-election and pro-participation but if we could go back in time, I think we should really reconsider it […] I do not think they (the government) want anybody from the opposition, they are chocking (sic) the opposition.’”
Also, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy released an audio recording of a Policy Forum held yesterday on the Egyptian elections and U.S. policy towards Egypt. The discussants included Dina Guirguis, a Keston Family research fellow with the Washington Institute’s Project Fikra, David Schenker, the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute, and Leslie Campbell, a senior associate and regional director of the National Democratic Institute’s (NDI) Middle East and North Africa division.
Posted in Civil Society, Egypt, Elections, Muslim Brotherhood, Political Parties, US foreign policy | Comment »
Egypt: Rhetoric Heats Up as Election Nears
November 22nd, 2010 by Jason
U.S. Ambassador to Egypt Margret Scobey recently “reiterated American interest in transparent Egyptian parliamentary elections,” according to a report by Al Masry Al Youm. The Ambassador also “stressed the importance of local election oversight based on international standards, accompanied by international monitors.” Egyptian Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif was quoted today insisting that “‘Egypt is capable of monitoring the upcoming polls to prove to the entire world we are able to manage completely impartial elections.’” Meanwhile, the Muslim Brotherhood’s Saad el-Katatni told reporters at a press conference that “‘[w]hat is happening right now is the actual rigging of the vote […] The regime is sending a message that there will be no election.’”
Anwar Esmat Sadat, son of the former president and an independent candidate for parliament, also released a statement today claiming that the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) has taken “illegal actions” and used “tricks” to change his status from “Farmers’ Seat” to “Categories” thus making him ineligible to run for the seat that he currently holds. Sadat goes on to say “Egypt’s citizens were promised a fair, equal, and transparent election. I thought that it would be a fair and just election based on the assurances of the President himself. Despite hardships, I tried to act positively and to ignore the voices calling to boycott the elections. However, this corruption shows that it is clear that the government is willing to exclude me from the Council, likely because I did not agree with their decisions simply in order to satisfy them.”
Posted in Civil Society, Egypt, Elections, Muslim Brotherhood | Comment »
Egypt: Widespread Arrests Stifle Campaigns
November 22nd, 2010 by Evan
Over 1,200 Muslim Brotherhood members, including eight nominees for the upcoming election, were arrested Friday and Saturday following a series of violent clashes with police at campaign rallies across the country. Representatives of the Brotherhood reported members were detained in 22 provinces, with the largest number of arrests occurring in Sharqiya and Alexandria. “The regime is sending a message that there will be no election,” said Saad el-Katatni, the head of the Muslim Brotherhood parliamentary bloc. In a new article for Al Jazeera, Evan Hill describes challenges facing the Brotherhood and the organization’s tenuous relations with proponents of democracy in the West, while Amro Hassan and Jeffrey Fleishman document internal rifts between conservatives and reformists and the effect of increased government pressure on the organization.
Posted in Egypt, Elections, Human Rights, Islam and Democracy, Islamist movements, Muslim Brotherhood | Comment »
